Louis Varland is (Un)Officially a Member of the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

[Matthew Lenz]

After months of speculation, it seems unofficially official that Louis Varland will be a reliever for the Minnesota Twins this season. While Twins manager Rocco Baldelli continues to keep his cards close to his chest, it’s hard to ignore the signs. What gives us this impression, and what implications will such a move have on others fighting for a roster spot?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Twins are roughly one-third of the way through their Grapefruit League schedule, and to this point we have seen Louis Varland make four appearances. It’s not overly notable that all of those have come in relief, but an interesting trend has emerged in the box scores (listed chronologically):

Not only has Varland been limited to one-inning outings, but his pitch count has been kept “suspiciously” low, as well. If he was being stretched out as a starter, or even a multi-inning reliever, he assuredly would need to be on the mound for more than an inning or a dozen pitches at a time.

With just four innings under his belt and only the first two frames taking place in a stadium with publicly accessible Statcast technology, it remains to be seen how this will impact his velocity and pitch mix. As it stands right now, his velocity and spin rates are roughly the same as his 2024 numbers, although I would expect that to change as the sample grows and the season ramps up. Regardless, in 29 ⅓ regular season innings as a reliever, his analytics suggest this is the right move. Across 16 appearances, he’s carried a 25.6% K-BB rate and a 3.54 FIP, which is nearly two runs better than as a starter.

So why can’t we make this unofficial announcement official? Well, Rocco Baldelli is still claiming that they have yet to label Varland's role for the season. On Mar. 1, in a scrum with reporters following the spring training tilt against the Boston Red Sox (Varland’s third appearance), the Twins skipper said:

“I don’t remember or recall backfield outings where [Varland is] being stretched out at the moment. He’s going to throw some multi-inning appearances this spring, no matter what we end up landing on for him. But getting a chance to see him throw an inning, kind of a revved-up inning, let him come in from the pen doing that gets him the work we’re looking for from him right now.

We’re still waiting to see those “multi-inning appearances” and, in his defense, the spring training season is still relatively young. That said, despite not formally giving Varland a label, it’s getting harder to ignore what the box scores are telling us—in addition to the success he’s experienced as a reliever. So, if we are reading the tea leaves correctly, what impact will this have on the major-league roster.

Entering spring training, I hypothesized that the Twins would carry eight relievers, and that only two of those spots were really open. Initially, I had Michael Tonkin as a lock to make the Opening Day roster, but I’m less confident in that given his spring. I am swapping him out for Varland as a lock—which means, if our conjecture ends up being true, we’re still at two spots for a few different arms. We know who’s at the top of the pecking order, so the last two spots likely come down to Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Tonkin, or Eiberson Castellano.

Alcalá has mostly proven to be a good reliever when he’s healthy. Take out the month of August last season, and he was one of the more reliable and productive members of the Twins bullpen. He’s been used sparingly this spring, but one interesting thing to note is that he is only eight days away from reaching five years of service, whereupon he would need to agree to be optioned to Triple-A St. Paul.

Topa is another effective reliever, when healthy, but his 2024 season was basically a loss, and he's now 34 years old. Like Alcalá, he’s only thrown two innings this spring, but unlike Alcalá, his appearances have been a bit messy. He's given up four hits and an earned run, while striking out two. Despite his age, he’s accrued far less service time than Alcalá and could be optioned at any point this season.

Tonkin bounced around quite a bit last year, but ended the season as one of the more reliable arms for the Twins, which says more about the team’s performance than it does about him. He’s had an unfortunate spring, giving up eight base runners and four earned runs across 2 ⅔ innings. He’s out of options, though, and if he doesn’t crack the Opening Day roster, he would likely be lost to waivers. The best argument for keeping him is that he's the rubber arm in the group. In a pen full of pitchers with some notable injury histories, Tonkin offers durability.

Castellano has gone three innings across two appearances, including a rough two-inning outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Feb. 28. Of course, being a Rule 5 Draft selection means that the Twins have to carry him on their active roster or offer him back to the Philadelphia Phillies. Theoretically, they could try and swing a trade with the Phillies to keep him in the organization, but rumors suggest they tried to trade for him ahead of the Rule 5 Draft to no avail.

I think the Twins need to be strategic with how they handle the last spot in the bullpen; there is a way to do this without losing any arms. The season is a marathon, not a sprint, so I think it’s okay if they don't deploy the best 26 players in the organization on Opening Day, especially when it comes to the bullpen. Regardless of how his spring turns out, I like the long-term outlook for Castellano, and think he should be carried on the active roster for the entirety of the 2025 season. While I don’t think Tonkin is the best arm between Topa and Alcalá (in fact, he might be the worst), he’s the only one who cannot be optioned to Triple-A. Thus, I would pencil him in at the bottom of the bullpen totem pole. Strategically, I’m taking advantage of the eight days Alcalá has left to be freely optioned, and I'm also starting Topa with the Saints.

Again, this isn’t about having the best 26-man roster possible, but instead hoarding the most valuable resource in baseball. You can never have enough pitching, and when injury or poor performance strikes, the Twins would be in a really good spot if they had multiple arms in St. Paul at the ready. The plan for the bullpen is more about winning the marathon and keeping as many MLB-ready arms in the organization as possible.

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What does your Opening Day bullpen look like? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Doctor Gast]

In my opinion, Tonkin shouldn't be considered to be on the active roster. We have a lot of candidates with options that can slot in the active roster throughout the season. Hopefully Castellano can make the roster, I have faith in Alcala. In my opinion, Varland is one of the top candidates to make the roster. We have so many good BP arms that I don't want them to waste their bullets in AAA. 

[DJL44]

I don't see Varland as a lock over Alcala and Topa. All 3 have options and are competing.

[TopGunn#22]

Guys like Tonkin are eminently replaceable.  He's got to WIN a spot in the pen in spring training or he will be released, where some other team can sign him to their major league roster despite his poor spring training performance.  More likely, Tonkin would find himself in St. Paul to begin the season.

I'm still one of those guys still looking for Matt Canterino to earn himself a spot in this BP sometime this season (probably somewhat irrationally).  I don't necessarily want to give up on Preilipp being a SP but I wouldn't mind seeing him work some innings out of the pen for the Twins in 2025 either.

Alcala is just better than a lot of their options and if used properly I think will be quite good this year.  You've got to love the arm Castellano has and if it was a decision between him and a fading Theilbar, I'd take the young arm with potential 100% of the time.

Topa has shown he can be a solid, very effective arm.  But I think he needs to WIN his spot.  He shouldn't just be given the spot because we traded Jorge Polanco for him.  

I expect Louie Varland to be a very good RP for the Twins in 2025.  I think the Twins have some very GOOD options in the minors, especially Canterino starting out at St. Paul.  Is this the year Canterino can stay healthy and finally reach the Twins roster?    

[gmwannabe]

Canterino is already injured. 

[Karbo]

I thought someone else signed Thielbar. 

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Guys like Tonkin are eminently replaceable.  He's got to WIN a spot in the pen in spring training or he will be released, where some other team can sign him to their major league roster despite his poor spring training performance.  More likely, Tonkin would find himself in St. Paul to begin the season.

I'm still one of those guys still looking for Matt Canterino to earn himself a spot in this BP sometime this season (probably somewhat irrationally).  I don't necessarily want to give up on Preilipp being a SP but I wouldn't mind seeing him work some innings out of the pen for the Twins in 2025 either.

Alcala is just better than a lot of their options and if used properly I think will be quite good this year.  You've got to love the arm Castellano has and if it was a decision between him and a fading Theilbar, I'd take the young arm with potential 100% of the time.

Topa has shown he can be a solid, very effective arm.  But I think he needs to WIN his spot.  He shouldn't just be given the spot because we traded Jorge Polanco for him.  

I expect Louie Varland to be a very good RP for the Twins in 2025.  I think the Twins have some very GOOD options in the minors, especially Canterino starting out at St. Paul.  Is this the year Canterino can stay healthy and finally reach the Twins roster?    

Pretty much in agreement on most - definitely on Tonkin. He was released by three MLB teams last year, he's not an arm you should lose any sleep over losing. 

[arby58]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

I thought someone else signed Thielbar. 

Yep - Cubs.

[DJL44]

I still think a trade is possible before the season starts.

[LA Vikes Fan]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't see Varland as a lock over Alcala and Topa. All 3 have options and are competing.

I agree. I actually expect Varland to open up as the Closer in St. Paul. He would then be the first guy up for the inevitable injured or ineffective bullpen member assuming he is doing well in AAA. I expect him with the Twins by May 15 and once up, I think he stays up.

There's really 3 potential pen spots after Duran, Jax, Stewart (assuming he's healthy),Sands and Coulombe. I think the top 3 likely to make the team are Tonkin, Alcala, and Castellano. Tonkin may be a trade candidate to some desperate team in return for an A ball lottery ticket. If he's gone, the last spots are Castellano and Topa with Varland at AAA. If Tonkin is still with the team, Topa goes to AA because Topa has options and Tonkin does not. I don't think a trade with Philly is likely, so we are going to have to carry Castellano for the year to keep him. They wouldn't have picked him up if they weren't prepared to keep him. My likely bullpen is Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, and Castellano. Topa makes the team if one of those guys is traded or hurt. Varland starts as the AAA closer so he can get used to high leverage relief experience and then comes up when Stewart goes on Il.   

[Parfigliano]

44 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Pretty much in agreement on most - definitely on Tonkin. He was released by three MLB teams last year, he's not an arm you should lose any sleep over losing. 

He's nothing.

[tony&rodney]

35 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He's nothing.

Tonkin is the only arm in the bullpen who can take the ball on 3 consecutive days or pitch 3 innings if needed. He is a decent MLB relief pitcher. While it is true that Tonkin is not a normal late inning arm, the outs he gets when he is needed in the 5th, 6th, or 7th inning are valuable. Who else can throw 2 innings on consecutive days and come back on a third day with another inning? Most of the Twins bullpen arms are 1 inning every other day. My opinion is that the Twins need Tonkin in their pen.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure about all the hate on Tonkin.  He has basically been an average-slightly above average RP with a rubber arm since coming back from Japan. I have no clue why teams have been releasing him. Preseason stats do not matter, especially for pitchers.  If the Twins do cut him, I guarantee another team will pick him up within days.

Regarding Varland, anybody here find it odd the Twins won't publicly commit to Varland's role?  What do they have to gain by the secrecy?  I think the only reason to do that is because he is still in the SP mix and want to push out any public outcry.

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have no clue why teams have been releasing him.

No Clue? Age, no options, and can't be used in high leverage situations (Last year he blew 40% of his save chances) and 50% the year before. Generally is just an OK pitcher that can be brought in for cheap and released.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, gmwannabe said:

Canterino is already injured. 

He should be DFA'd to make room on the 40 man. Shoulder strain based on the MRI.
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/matt-canterino-injury-out-with-shoulder-strain-951028

[USAFChief]

57 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Tonkin is the only arm in the bullpen who can take the ball on 3 consecutive days or pitch 3 innings if needed. He is a decent MLB relief pitcher. While it is true that Tonkin is not a normal late inning arm, the outs he gets when he is needed in the 5th, 6th, or 7th inning are valuable. Who else can throw 2 innings on consecutive days and come back on a third day with another inning? Most of the Twins bullpen arms are 1 inning every other day. My opinion is that the Twins need Tonkin in their pen.

Tonkin never pitched 3 consecutive games laar year. He did pitch on back-to-back days 5 times, but never for consecutive multi-inning stints.

He also only pitched 3 innings once all season. For the Yankees BTW.

Hes extremely unlikely to pitch 3 days in a row 

Not to mention, "Mop-up guy" is a waste of available bullpen space.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=tonkimi01&t=p&year=2024

[arby58]

48 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Tonkin is the only arm in the bullpen who can take the ball on 3 consecutive days or pitch 3 innings if needed. He is a decent MLB relief pitcher. While it is true that Tonkin is not a normal late inning arm, the outs he gets when he is needed in the 5th, 6th, or 7th inning are valuable. Who else can throw 2 innings on consecutive innings and come back on a third day with another inning? Most of the Twins bullpen arms are 1 inning every other day. My opinion is that the Twins need Tonkin in their pen.

In 7 MLB seasons, Tonkin has pitched 3 innings 6 times, only one of which was last year.

Last year, until their starting pitching went off the rails in early August, through the first 111 games, they had a 'true' relief pitcher pitch 3 innings only once (Matt Bowman went 3 innings in a mop up role on April 15th). There was one case where Okert 'started' and went 1/3 of an inning, then Festa followed with 4 1/3 innings and one case where Paddock went 2 1/3 innings then Varland went 4 1/3, but otherwise just that 1 out of 111 games. You're keeping Tonkin around for that?

Besides, it's not as if the Twins don't have relief pitchers who can go more than 1 inning. Through those first 111 games (I stopped counting after that) , Cole Sands did it 10 times, including 2 and 1/3 and 2 and 2/3rds appearances. Funderburk did it 7 times, Alcala 5 times - and, yes, Tonkin once. Even Duran did it. 

Keep a 'real' arm in the bullpen, not somebody you need to trot out for mop up duty once in a blue moon (even Dobnak did that last year). 

[arby58]

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not sure about all the hate on Tonkin.  He has basically been an average-slightly above average RP with a rubber arm since coming back from Japan. I have no clue why teams have been releasing him. Preseason stats do not matter, especially for pitchers.  If the Twins do cut him, I guarantee another team will pick him up within days.

He was cut and picked up - and cut again - by three teams last year. Sure, somebody will pick him up, but that doesn't mean it's much of a loss when they do. If you really liked him, wait around, you can probably pick him up again.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not sure about all the hate on Tonkin.  He has basically been an average-slightly above average RP with a rubber arm since coming back from Japan. I have no clue why teams have been releasing him. Preseason stats do not matter, especially for pitchers.  If the Twins do cut him, I guarantee another team will pick him up within days.

Regarding Varland, anybody here find it odd the Twins won't publicly commit to Varland's role?  What do they have to gain by the secrecy?  I think the only reason to do that is because he is still in the SP mix and want to push out any public outcry.

Agreed about the Tonkin hate. 0.6 fWAR last year which ranks 77th of 203 (top 38%) relievers in MLB with 40+ innings. He ranked lower in 2023 (160th of 198 at bottom 22%), but he still provided positive value which is more than I can say for Louie Varland or 11 other relievers who pitched for Minnesota last year. Tonkin's durable as a middle innings reliever for only $1MM. The 8th spot in the bullpen is not going to be a high leverage closer role. What teams are hoping for out of the 8th spot is for a guy to come in, keep the game from drastically changing and get the team on to the next game.

Tonkin bounced around so much because of his limited upside. He wasn't a shiny new toy, and another team was guaranteed to pick him and his small salary up.

Varland is not a starting pitcher. He may not even have a ceiling higher than Tonkin in the bullpen. The Twins front office always plays secret squirrel with information as if every player on the roster is a starting quarterback for an NFL team. It's weird.

[Drtwins]

And Topa just left today's game with an injury

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Guys like Tonkin are eminently replaceable.  He's got to WIN a spot in the pen in spring training or he will be released, where some other team can sign him to their major league roster despite his poor spring training performance.  More likely, Tonkin would find himself in St. Paul to begin the season.

I'm still one of those guys still looking for Matt Canterino to earn himself a spot in this BP sometime this season (probably somewhat irrationally).  I don't necessarily want to give up on Preilipp being a SP but I wouldn't mind seeing him work some innings out of the pen for the Twins in 2025 either.

Alcala is just better than a lot of their options and if used properly I think will be quite good this year.  You've got to love the arm Castellano has and if it was a decision between him and a fading Theilbar, I'd take the young arm with potential 100% of the time.

Topa has shown he can be a solid, very effective arm.  But I think he needs to WIN his spot.  He shouldn't just be given the spot because we traded Jorge Polanco for him.  

I expect Louie Varland to be a very good RP for the Twins in 2025.  I think the Twins have some very GOOD options in the minors, especially Canterino starting out at St. Paul.  Is this the year Canterino can stay healthy and finally reach the Twins roster?    

Got bad news, Canterino is down with shoulder problems already, Doesn't sound good.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Varland is not a starting pitcher. He may not even have a ceiling higher than Tonkin in the bullpen. The Twins front office always plays secret squirrel with information as if every player on the roster is a starting quarterback for an NFL team. It's weird.

I think you just throw last year's stats away with Varland - the disastrous start to the season messed him up.

If you go back to 2023, down the stretch (in games that mattered, including two play-off appearances), he was electric as a relief pitcher. In 7 appearances during the regular season, it was 12 innings pitched, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks and 1 walk - for a WHIP of 0.583. Then two relief appearances in the play-offs (each 1/3 of an inning) no runs allowed and an additional K. That's a might nice stat line. Agreed, small sample size, but it gives you an idea that he isn't just a 'number eight' arm in the bullpen.

I would be shocked if you can find a stretch like that for Tonkin, when games really mattered. He's just another arm, where Varland, in the right role, just might be special.

[Parfigliano]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He should be DFA'd to make room on the 40 man. Shoulder strain based on the MRI.
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/headlines/matt-canterino-injury-out-with-shoulder-strain-951028

Doesn't matter how much talent you have if you are constantly injured which he is.  It stinks for him but for the team he needs to be off the 40 man.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Guys like Tonkin are eminently replaceable.  He's got to WIN a spot in the pen in spring training or he will be released, where some other team can sign him to their major league roster despite his poor spring training performance.  More likely, Tonkin would find himself in St. Paul to begin the season.

I'm still one of those guys still looking for Matt Canterino to earn himself a spot in this BP sometime this season (probably somewhat irrationally).  I don't necessarily want to give up on Preilipp being a SP but I wouldn't mind seeing him work some innings out of the pen for the Twins in 2025 either.

Alcala is just better than a lot of their options and if used properly I think will be quite good this year.  You've got to love the arm Castellano has and if it was a decision between him and a fading Theilbar, I'd take the young arm with potential 100% of the time.

Topa has shown he can be a solid, very effective arm.  But I think he needs to WIN his spot.  He shouldn't just be given the spot because we traded Jorge Polanco for him.  

I expect Louie Varland to be a very good RP for the Twins in 2025.  I think the Twins have some very GOOD options in the minors, especially Canterino starting out at St. Paul.  Is this the year Canterino can stay healthy and finally reach the Twins roster?    

Topa left today's game with an injury... These things always sort themselves. 

[Parfigliano]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Agreed about the Tonkin hate. 0.6 fWAR last year which ranks 77th of 203 (top 38%) relievers in MLB with 40+ innings. He ranked lower in 2023 (160th of 198 at bottom 22%), but he still provided positive value which is more than I can say for Louie Varland or 11 other relievers who pitched for Minnesota last year. Tonkin's durable as a middle innings reliever for only $1MM. The 8th spot in the bullpen is not going to be a high leverage closer role. What teams are hoping for out of the 8th spot is for a guy to come in, keep the game from drastically changing and get the team on to the next game.

Tonkin bounced around so much because of his limited upside. He wasn't a shiny new toy, and another team was guaranteed to pick him and his small salary up.

Varland is not a starting pitcher. He may not even have a ceiling higher than Tonkin in the bullpen. The Twins front office always plays secret squirrel with information as if every player on the roster is a starting quarterback for an NFL team. It's weird.

TC should treat injury like the NHL.  Describe an injury as "upper body" or "lower body".  Nothing more.

[Paul Walerius]

I think the Twins Daily writers are the only ones who think of Varland as a starter.  He should have been strictly pen last year.  

[mickster]

41 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I think you just throw last year's stats away with Varland - the disastrous start to the season messed him up.

If you go back to 2023, down the stretch (in games that mattered, including two play-off appearances), he was electric as a relief pitcher. In 7 appearances during the regular season, it was 12 innings pitched, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks and 1 walk - for a WHIP of 0.583. Then two relief appearances (each 1/3 of an inning) no runs allowed and an additional K. That's a might nice stat line. Agreed, small sample size, but it gives you an idea that he isn't just a 'number eight' arm in the bullpen.

I would be shocked if you can find a stretch like that for Tonkin, when games really mattered. He's just another arm, where Varland, in the right role, just might be special.

I believe that Varland in the BP can be as good as Jax.   That would set up nice 

[arby58]

31 minutes ago, mickster said:

I believe that Varland in the BP can be as good as Jax.   That would set up nice 

When I was a kid, audiophiles would talk about 'dynamic headroom' - the ability of speakers to burst out sound without distortion. To me, the baseball equivalent is that Jax and Duran have that, and Varland has the potential - Tonkin does not.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

I believe that Varland in the BP can be as good as Jax.   That would set up nice 

I continue to be baffled by the expectations Varland has a good chance to be an elite bullpen arm.

There's not much in Varland's history or profile which suggest he might even be an effective setup man. I know there's talk about his knuckle curve, but he had that pitch last year, too. It was his only above average pitch in Stuff+. One of the important things about Stuff+ is how it evaluates a repertoire not only based on characteristics of a pitch, but also how effective you'd expect a pitch to be based on the other offerings a pitcher has.

I think Varland could be a solid reliever, but I don't see any major upside right now. Most top relievers like Duran and Jax have at least one elite pitch. Varland's best pitch is maybe a tick above average. The quality of Varland's offerings compare similarly to Josh Staumont and Ronny Henriquez, but nobody is expecting those guys to lead a bullpen any time soon. Even Michael Tonkin has a better pitch (changeup) than Varland's best.

Louie Varland Stuff+
Fastball 100 (50 grade)
Sinker 98 (45 grade)
Cutter, 99 (45 grade)
Changeup 93 (45 grade)
KnuckleCurve 107 (50 grade)

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

...Not to mention, "Mop-up guy" is a waste of available bullpen space.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=tonkimi01&t=p&year=2024

Less of a waste than "destroys your hope of winning guy"