Louis Varland is (Un)Officially a Member of the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

[arby58]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I continue to be baffled by the expectations Varland has a good chance to be an elite bullpen arm.

There's not much in Varland's history or profile which suggest he might even be an effective setup man. I know there's talk about his knuckle curve, but he had that pitch last year, too. It was his only above average pitch in Stuff+. One of the important things about Stuff+ is how it evaluates a repertoire not only based on characteristics of a pitch, but also how effective you'd expect a pitch to be based on the other offerings a pitcher has.

In 2023, in 9 relief appearances (including 2 in the post-season) he had a 1.50 ERA and struck out 18 batters in 12 2/3 innings. That's nearly 1 1/2 batters an inning. You don't do that without having swing and miss stuff.

[jorgenswest]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

No Clue? Age, no options, and can't be used in high leverage situations (Last year he blew 40% of his save chances) and 50% the year before. Generally is just an OK pitcher that can be brought in for cheap and released.

He blew two saves last year. Both games were extra innings. He pitched 3.1 innings giving up 3 hits, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk and 0 earned runs. In one game a passed ball moved the ghost runner from second to third before they scored. In the other game the ghost runner scored. He earned a win in one of the games and a loss in the other. Across his 5 save opportunities, he pitched 9 innings and gave up 1 earned run with up 6 hits, 7 strikeouts and 3 walks.

I don’t know if Tonkin is the best option for the back of the bullpen. I just felt a strong need to put a context to that 40% number in support of a man who works so hard to play and stay in the majors.

I add this comment hoping it doesn’t derail the discussion. A reliever coming in the game in extra innings with a runner starting on second should not be saddled with a loss. Had it been earlier in the game and that runner on second was inherited with 0 outs the loss would go to the pitcher that put him on second. 

 

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Tonkin never pitched 3 consecutive games laar year. He did pitch on back-to-back days 5 times, but never for consecutive multi-inning stints.

He also only pitched 3 innings once all season. For the Yankees BTW.

Hes extremely unlikely to pitch 3 days in a row 

Not to mention, "Mop-up guy" is a waste of available bullpen space.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=tonkimi01&t=p&year=2024

Nothing wrong with you having an opinion.

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

In 7 MLB seasons, Tonkin has pitched 3 innings 6 times, only one of which was last year.

Last year, until their starting pitching went off the rails in early August, through the first 111 games, they had a 'true' relief pitcher pitch 3 innings only once (Matt Bowman went 3 innings in a mop up role on April 15th). There was one case where Okert 'started' and went 1/3 of an inning, then Festa followed with 4 1/3 innings and one case where Paddock went 2 1/3 innings then Varland went 4 1/3, but otherwise just that 1 out of 111 games. You're keeping Tonkin around for that?

Besides, it's not as if the Twins don't have relief pitchers who can go more than 1 inning. Through those first 111 games (I stopped counting after that) , Cole Sands did it 10 times, including 2 and 1/3 and 2 and 2/3rds appearances. Funderburk did it 7 times, Alcala 5 times - and, yes, Tonkin once. Even Duran did it. 

Keep a 'real' arm in the bullpen, not somebody you need to trot out for mop up duty once in a blue moon (even Dobnak did that last year). 

You get to pick who you like too.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Nothing wrong with you having an opinion.

There's a lot of facts there, sport.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There's a lot of facts there, sport.

Agree, you did a fine job.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree, you did a fine job.

The prize for 'the most laconic exchange' is awarded to tony&rodney and USAFCHIEF. Congrats to you both!

[LambchoP]

With Canterino and Topa already hurt and Stewart looking like he'll be ready for opening day, I'd go with a pen of

Duran, Jax, Sands

Stewart, Coloumbe, Alcala

Castellano and Varland

Topa can be called up when healthy. Tonkin hasn't looked good early on, maybe he passes through waivers. I think Castellano has too much potential to lose him. If we need more relief arms we have all those starters at St Paul that would love to get their cup of coffee.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Tonkin is the only arm in the bullpen who can take the ball on 3 consecutive days or pitch 3 innings if needed. He is a decent MLB relief pitcher. While it is true that Tonkin is not a normal late inning arm, the outs he gets when he is needed in the 5th, 6th, or 7th inning are valuable. Who else can throw 2 innings on consecutive days and come back on a third day with another inning? Most of the Twins bullpen arms are 1 inning every other day. My opinion is that the Twins need Tonkin in their pen.

Tonkin & a single A guy to Phillies for Castellano? Phillies get a veteran at $1M and a youthful flyer……….Twins need some roster flexibility if they like Castellano - can’t be locked in by the Rule 5 considerations.

[Otaknam]

I don’t understand how Tonkin is a better option than Varland, Alcala or any of the other young pitchers. And I’m hoping they really like the upside for Castellanos and he earns a spot on the roster. 

[JD-TWINS]

Pretty common knowledge that Paddack doesn’t have the arm durability/stamina to start throughout the season. One could argue that anything over 100 innings (with effectiveness) is a stretch.

Paddack as a monthly spot starter and a 1 inning plus reliever a couple times per week, this is IMO, his best role. Can pitch with max effort & best stuff in limited innings.

Varland - Paddack - Coulombe - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran are my top 7 PEN guys. Topa-Stewart - Tonkin - Castellano - Funderburk are all guys trying to fill the last spot, depending upon health & effectiveness. Tonkin & Paddack are both potential trade guys as other teams lose options in Spring Training.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

No Clue? Age, no options, and can't be used in high leverage situations (Last year he blew 40% of his save chances) and 50% the year before. Generally is just an OK pitcher that can be brought in for cheap and released.

Blown Saves is a horrendous stat to use to define quality, just as Saves is equally horrendous.

Based on the comments for this article, I wonder how many heads will explode when he makes the Opening Day roster over Varland.  Considering we are talking about the back-end of the bullpen, it will be interesting.

[DJL44]

Everyone here has Sands as a lock, but he has options. He's only pitched twice and has been beaten up to the tune of a 16.20 ERA so far.

[TwinsDr2021]

18 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Blown Saves is a horrendous stat to use to define quality, just as Saves is equally horrendous.

Based on the comments for this article, I wonder how many heads will explode when he makes the Opening Day roster over Varland.  Considering we are talking about the back-end of the bullpen, it will be interesting.

Don't disagree that it is isn't the best stat, but since he came back to MLB, he has pitched in 102 games and has been given 11 chances to save a game, and in those 11 he has blown 5 of them. So it seems obvious to me teams don't trust him.

My point wasn't about him making the team or not it was a response to you saying you had no clue why teams keep releasing him.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Don't disagree that it is isn't the best stat, but since he came back to MLB, he has pitched in 102 games and has been given 11 chances to save a game, and in those 11 he has blown 5 of them. So it seems obvious to me teams don't trust him.

My point wasn't about him making the team or not it was a response to you saying you had no clue why teams keep releasing him.

Looking at his overall picture, he has been (at-worst) average.  Average RP that are very inexpensive don't get discarded.  So yeah, I guess I don't get it.  

[Fatbat]

20 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not sure about all the hate on Tonkin.  He has basically been an average-slightly above average RP with a rubber arm since coming back from Japan. I have no clue why teams have been releasing him. Preseason stats do not matter, especially for pitchers.  If the Twins do cut him, I guarantee another team will pick him up within days.

Regarding Varland, anybody here find it odd the Twins won't publicly commit to Varland's role?  What do they have to gain by the secrecy?  I think the only reason to do that is because he is still in the SP mix and want to push out any public outcry.

The team gains nothing by announcing his role. He has several roles he can play and he has options so his role can change as needed.  Game one is weeks away and anything can happen. 

[Fatbat]

Since Tonkin is out of options, he should be considered a lock. If/when he fails, he will be replaced. Its not like this is new to the Twins or any mlb org. Pecking order is a thing. The young guys are fighting for the last spot given that Castellano will likely be here as a rule 5 guy, not as a simple trade because the Philly org wants him back. That should tell you something. He has upside and he has long term value. Therefore he has a roster spot. 
I would option Alcala and Topa and keep Varland, simply based on upside results and durability. 

[Linus]

Remember the logjam we were worrying about?  Breaking right up before it’s a problem.

[ashbury]

22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

There's a lot of facts there, sport.

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your facts, man.