Make Or Break Players On the 2025 Twins: Louis Varland

[Cody Christie]

As the Twins gather in Florida to gear up for the 2025 season, a handful of players face a make-or-break campaign. Here’s why their hard-throwing local product is one of the most critical pieces for the pitching staff.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports / © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins head into 2025 with high expectations, but the stakes are even higher for the artist formerly known as Louie Varland. After a turbulent 2024 campaign, the Minnesota native finds himself at a career crossroads. With a crowded rotation, an increasingly competitive bullpen, and younger arms surpassing him on the depth chart, Varland must prove he belongs. If he can’t, his long-term role with the Twins could be in jeopardy.

What Went Wrong in 2024?
Heading into the 2024 season, the Twins viewed Varland as a valuable depth starter who could step into the rotation when needed. Unfortunately, his performance didn’t match expectations. After starting the year in Triple A, Varland struggled when called upon in the majors. In 16 appearances (49 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.61 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP. His strikeout rate plunged from 25.1% in 2023 to 20.6%. His command wavered, leading to an increased walk rate (6.7 BB%), and his once-effective cutter went from a weapon to a pitch pummeled for a .603 SLG.

Varland saw opponents' hard-hit rate increase, as he had extended at-bats and struggled to put hitters away. As a result, the Twins shifted him to the bullpen late in the season, hoping his stuff would play up in shorter stints. While he has shown flashes of dominance in relief, inconsistency continued to be an issue. Entering 2025, Varland finds himself pushed further down the depth chart by the emergence of other arms, like Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa.

What Can Go Right in 2025?
If Varland wants to solidify his place in the Twins’ plans, he needs a strong showing in 2025. The best path forward may be a full-time move to the bullpen. His fastball could regain its life in shorter outings, and his secondary pitches might play up with a more simplified approach. The Twins have seen success with similar transitions, and Varland has the raw stuff to thrive as a high-leverage reliever. He provided the Twins with -1.4 WAR last season, so reprising last year's attempt to salvage his starting career seems unlikely.

However, the challenge remains: there isn’t a clear opening in the bullpen to start the season. The Twins project to have baseball’s best bullpen, meaning Varland will need to force their hand with a dominant spring training or early-season performance in Triple A. There is also a chance that injuries will impact the projected bullpen group, which could give Varland an opportunity. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has been impressed with Varland’s previous relief appearances. He could become an impact arm by midseason, if he can sharpen his command and regain the velocity that he's previously shown in the bullpen.

“[Varland] is just preparing for the season. He's not preparing for one role in particular. He's a guy that can adapt very quickly if we needed him to,” Baldelli told Twins Daily’s John Bonnes in Fort Myers. “I think it's very possible that we see a good amount of him out of the bullpen this year. We've seen the way he looks when he pitches out of the bullpen, but I'm not ready to say 100 percent locked in that Louie will pitch there.”

How Will This Impact the Twins?
The Twins’ pitching staff is in a strong position heading into 2025, but injuries and underperformance are inevitable over a 162-game season. If Varland can rediscover his form, he will give the club valuable depth in the bullpen. Conversely, if his struggles continue, the Twins may be forced to make a tough decision regarding his future as other pitchers pass him on the team’s depth chart. 

With younger pitchers like Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Festa climbing the ranks, the Twins may not have the patience to wait for Varland to figure things out. The Twins must give him a season to adjust to being a full-time reliever without jerking him back and forth from Triple-A to the big leagues. He took value away from the Twins in 2024, but now he can seize a new role and thrive. 

For Varland, 2025 is about finding sustained success at the big-league level, albeit in a different role than the one he might have hoped to fill. The Twins have options, and he is no longer a guaranteed part of their long-term plans. It’s now or never for the Minnesota native, as he either finds a way to contribute or risks being left behind.

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What value can Varland provide to the Twins? Is he best suited as a starter or reliever? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

Has Varland been stubborn about the BP in the past?  I see it as the only viable option for him now.  SP depth is only growing larger and longer with SWR, Festa, Zebby followed by Morris, Raya, Lewis.

We know from the past some of those - best BP in the majors arms are going to fail and he needs to jump into the opening.

[Karbo]

There's that phrase again that really scares me, Best pen in the league. I sure hope that happens but after all the hype last pre-season, I'm very doubtful.

[LambchoP]

I think a full-time role in the bullpen is the best use for Varland. A great spring training would help, but even if he has to start the year in AAA, having him as relief depth would be very valuable. Relievers are especially volatile year to year and injuries happen. Have him let it rip in the pen and maybe he turns into a high leverage weapon. He's cooked as a starter, especially with the SP depth we now have 

[Whitey333]

I sometimes think players, as well as managers, coaches, and media are over worked and over played with analytics.  It seems that instead of worrying so much about spin rates, velocity, etc they should pitch to their strengths that got them to the big leagues.  It's OK to use some of the analytical stats but let's not overdue it.  I think in most cases if they pitched to the degree that got them to this point they would be better off.

[TwinsDr2021]

If I was Varland, I would tell the Twins if I am in the majors, I will do anything you ask, starting, relief, the guy that switches out the bases, anything, but if I am going to AAA I want to start, going from starting in AAA to relief pitching in the majors shouldn't be that difficult, even if I am 10th in the pecking order for starter, maybe a team loses a starter and would trade for me.

[bean5302]

This is a huge year for Varland. I think the Twins have seen all they're willing to see of Varland in the rotation. He hasn't been lights out in the bullpen, either, though.
 
.261/.301/.426 OPS .727 against. 6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP as a reliever.

He's had the same issue as a reliever as he had as a starter. His pitches don't have plus movement enough against MLB hitters so those hitters have been able to square the ball up too frequently. The good news is as a reliever, Varland can adjust his repertoire to eliminate less effective offerings altogether to further refine his best stuff. That may elevate his game. Varland certainly is better out of the 'pen, but it remains to be seen if he's a mop up guy or a steady middle innings option. Taking a step forward as a true bullpen weapon seems a bit of a reach to me right now.

[Blyleven2011]

Varland being a Minnesota native , we are pulling for him ...

He showed a great bullpen arm in 2023 , that's where he is destined to be , high octane he got the job done , but he is a thrower and hasn't really proven he is a pitcher ..

Quit fooling around with varland before he has no value at all and we lose another player for nothing ...

He's a bullpen option going forward ...

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

35 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I sometimes think players, as well as managers, coaches, and media are over worked and over played with analytics.  It seems that instead of worrying so much about spin rates, velocity, etc they should pitch to their strengths that got them to the big leagues.  It's OK to use some of the analytical stats but let's not overdue it.  I think in most cases if they pitched to the degree that got them to this point they would be better off.

Makes sense.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

I'm just pulling for Louie to be successful.  He is a "class act" all the way.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think the first thing that needs to happen is the Twins need to publicly make a decision on if they are preparing Varland as a SP or a RP so us commenters here at TD don't have to speculate or opinionate anymore.

Young pitchers are rarely in a truly make-or-break scenario if they are willing to do whatever is asked of them.   The Twins may bounce him around for a few more years, then another team or two will take a flier on him.  He will get opportunities.

[PatPfund]

It is a key year for another reason; I'm pretty sure this is Varland's last option year for the Twins, so if he starts the year in AAA (very likely), they won't be able to shuttle him next year. I'm not real sold on Louie in either role; good arm, great bulldog mentality, healthy arm (which is huge), pitches not quite good enough. (Thanks to @bean5302 for the data to reinforce my eyeball opinion that Louie is very hit and miss as an RP.) (It cracks me up nobody really talks about the SP who dominated in an RP role in '23. I remember Dusty Baker talking to Rocco, and saying "Paddack. Who knew?")

My #1 hope is that he worked on that in the offseason (new pitch? extra velo? more movement?), and can succeed in a starting role, because that is more valuable to the team. (If you doubt me, try to think back to a trade deadline where you DIDN'T want the Twins to get an SP.) My #2 hope is Louie sharpened his stuff enough to warrant an eventual full-time gig in the 'pen. Otherwise he probably is gone in a trade by next year.

[David Maro]

Louie's biggest problem is he is a thrower not a pitcher. His mentality is he can blow pitches by hitters. He needs to work this ST on pitch location and movement. Why everyone thinks pitchers need to throw 100+ to get hitters out. Looking across the league the pitchers doing that seem to end up with shoulder or arm issues. Just look at Stewart as one example for the Twins.

[Jocko87]

38 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think the first thing that needs to happen is the Twins need to publicly make a decision on if they are preparing Varland as a SP or a RP so us commenters here at TD don't have to speculate or opinionate anymore.

Young pitchers are rarely in a truly make-or-break scenario if they are willing to do whatever is asked of them.   The Twins may bounce him around for a few more years, then another team or two will take a flier on him.  He will get opportunities.

Oh please, won't somebody think of the Twins Daily poasters. 😂😉

I do expect they already know, Louis already knows and they are comfortable with the plan. What they communicate to us means next to nothing and it makes perfect sense for him to stay on the longer side of warmed up for a while. Work on specific things for the bullpen while not selling the farm at the start of camp.

He's a long shot to break camp with the Twins but will have loads of chances still coming.

[Mike Sixel]

There are a good half dozen guys in front of him for the rotation at this point. He's either traded, used in the bullpen, or wasted because they want him starting in the minors "just in case." 

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

I'm just pulling for Louie to be successful.  He is a "class act" all the way.  

He wasn't a class act a few years ago in spring training  ,when people wanted to talk to him , he responded , we have a job to do ,  do people  come and bother you at your place of work , he was rude ...

But that's life ...

[HerbieFan]

We all know it.  I think the FO knows it.  I think Rocco knows it.  Seems like Louie has been resistant to coming around to it.  HE BELONGS IN THE BULLPEN.  

When I see what the organization has done with guys like Jax, Duran, now Cole Sands, I'm excited to see what they can do with Varland.  He just needs to buy in.  

As for a spot, Stewart will be on IL by end of April.  Not sure best strategy wouldn't be to just keep Stewart on ice until Sept/October?

[Linus]

Varland hasn’t shown anything in the bigs to be considered a starter.  I don’t know there is any point in to continuing down that road, especially since he is 27 or 28?

In the pen he has shown promise for an inning as he cranks up the fastball to 99.  Then he starts to go downhill.  My dream for him and the Twins is for him is to forget the change and two seamer and really try to add a slider that has enough bite and more of a difference mph wise from the fastball.  Next I would have him try to hold back on the four seam - maybe 97 and see If that would allow him to go 2 or 3 innings something the Twins have needed for a long time.  As we have seen with Alcala and others being decent for one inning only really limits value.

[Doctor Gast]

Jax lacked the stuff to be a SP & we needed SPs. They made a decision for Jax to go to the BP. He wasn't that great in '23 but they stuck with him. In '24 he was great In '23 they tried Varland in the BP & he was great. Everybody wanted Varland in the BP in '24, Twins got all these fringe RPs, FO figured we didn't need Varland in the pen. Varland should not have been returned to SP & kept him at RP. Last year they needed to focus him in the BP & leave him alone & give him the opportunity to excel w/o vacillating. IMO he shouldn't be a make-or-break player. I don't like the idea of finally giving a guy an opportunity & say "Here you go, be great or you're out". While giving others opportunity after opportunity, who weren't good enough in the 1st place but that doesn't matter because they are their favorites. 

[gman]

The team currently has 6-8 pitchers starting from high a to 3A that won't all be in the rotation. Most will wind up in the bullpen or traded. Varland might make it as a reliever and at times has looked very good. I agree with several other posters that this could be his last year with the Twins. I think the decision comes down to bullpen or another team.

[gman]

After taking another look at the Saints starters, there may not even be room for Varland in the rotation there.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, gman said:

After taking another look at the Saints starters, there may not even be room for Varland in the rotation there.

Especially that most look they have more upside than Varland.

[DocBauer]

Play your best/most talented players. And put your best/most talented players in a position to succeed.

Varland has the ability to be good in the pen, potentially very good. Festa and Matthews are ahead of him in the rotation right now. Morris and Lewis are right behind them, along with Raya.

Even if Paddack had been moved...was still moved...I'd still place Varland in the pen and trust in my young rotation arms.

It's probably not fair for Festa and Varland to begin the season in St Paul. But these things tend to work out...(see Ober: 2023)...and they'll get their ML time.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

On 2/18/2025 at 12:09 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

He wasn't a class act a few years ago in spring training  ,when people wanted to talk to him , he responded , we have a job to do ,  do people  come and bother you at your place of work , he was rude ...

But that's life ...

Well, I can't only respond in the couple interactions I had with him.  He was friendly and polite.  I do think he has really worked hard to get a chance at the big leagues.  He was not a high draft choice and played for a small college.  He has already defied the odds.  You might have caught him on a bad day too.  I have them once in a while myself.