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The Minnesota Twins head into 2025 with high expectations, but the stakes are even higher for the artist formerly known as Louie Varland. After a turbulent 2024 campaign, the Minnesota native finds himself at a career crossroads. With a crowded rotation, an increasingly competitive bullpen, and younger arms surpassing him on the depth chart, Varland must prove he belongs. If he can’t, his long-term role with the Twins could be in jeopardy.
What Went Wrong in 2024?
Heading into the 2024 season, the Twins viewed Varland as a valuable depth starter who could step into the rotation when needed. Unfortunately, his performance didn’t match expectations. After starting the year in Triple A, Varland struggled when called upon in the majors. In 16 appearances (49 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.61 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP. His strikeout rate plunged from 25.1% in 2023 to 20.6%. His command wavered, leading to an increased walk rate (6.7 BB%), and his once-effective cutter went from a weapon to a pitch pummeled for a .603 SLG.
Varland saw opponents' hard-hit rate increase, as he had extended at-bats and struggled to put hitters away. As a result, the Twins shifted him to the bullpen late in the season, hoping his stuff would play up in shorter stints. While he has shown flashes of dominance in relief, inconsistency continued to be an issue. Entering 2025, Varland finds himself pushed further down the depth chart by the emergence of other arms, like Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa.
What Can Go Right in 2025?
If Varland wants to solidify his place in the Twins’ plans, he needs a strong showing in 2025. The best path forward may be a full-time move to the bullpen. His fastball could regain its life in shorter outings, and his secondary pitches might play up with a more simplified approach. The Twins have seen success with similar transitions, and Varland has the raw stuff to thrive as a high-leverage reliever. He provided the Twins with -1.4 WAR last season, so reprising last year's attempt to salvage his starting career seems unlikely.
However, the challenge remains: there isn’t a clear opening in the bullpen to start the season. The Twins project to have baseball’s best bullpen, meaning Varland will need to force their hand with a dominant spring training or early-season performance in Triple A. There is also a chance that injuries will impact the projected bullpen group, which could give Varland an opportunity. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has been impressed with Varland’s previous relief appearances. He could become an impact arm by midseason, if he can sharpen his command and regain the velocity that he's previously shown in the bullpen.
“[Varland] is just preparing for the season. He's not preparing for one role in particular. He's a guy that can adapt very quickly if we needed him to,” Baldelli told Twins Daily’s John Bonnes in Fort Myers. “I think it's very possible that we see a good amount of him out of the bullpen this year. We've seen the way he looks when he pitches out of the bullpen, but I'm not ready to say 100 percent locked in that Louie will pitch there.”
How Will This Impact the Twins?
The Twins’ pitching staff is in a strong position heading into 2025, but injuries and underperformance are inevitable over a 162-game season. If Varland can rediscover his form, he will give the club valuable depth in the bullpen. Conversely, if his struggles continue, the Twins may be forced to make a tough decision regarding his future as other pitchers pass him on the team’s depth chart.
With younger pitchers like Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Festa climbing the ranks, the Twins may not have the patience to wait for Varland to figure things out. The Twins must give him a season to adjust to being a full-time reliever without jerking him back and forth from Triple-A to the big leagues. He took value away from the Twins in 2024, but now he can seize a new role and thrive.
For Varland, 2025 is about finding sustained success at the big-league level, albeit in a different role than the one he might have hoped to fill. The Twins have options, and he is no longer a guaranteed part of their long-term plans. It’s now or never for the Minnesota native, as he either finds a way to contribute or risks being left behind.
What value can Varland provide to the Twins? Is he best suited as a starter or reliever? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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