I Am Once Again Asking for a Ryan Mountcastle Trade

[Matt Braun]

Baltimore’s endless glut of hitters has to give way somehow, right?

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

With the Orioles signing Ramón Laureano on Tuesday, it seems that, once again, Baltimore has more hitters than they know what to do with. Their lineup was already crowded, with Heston Kjerstad on the bench in most formulations of the lineup and Coby Mayo stuck at Triple-A Norfolk, meaning a piece or two needs to wiggle free, lest a player needing time in the majors finds himself out in the rain. 

So, why a Ryan Mountcastle deal specifically? Perhaps no hitter on the team was more cursed by the Orioles’ horrid left-field wall botch job, often called a “modification.” A dead-pull hitter by nature, Mountcastle shifted his approach to favor democracy because, frankly, even Harmon Killebrew would find hitting into a wall as big and distant as the one deemed sufficient to separate Berlin a frustrating task. In response, his numbers have been merely fine, not overwhelming for a slugger; his career wRC+ is 112. 

Target Field suffers from no such malaise. It’s the eighth-friendliest stadium to righties since 2022, according to Statcast’s ballpark metrics. Homers occur at an above-average rate; doubles are accepted as fond company. Singles are tougher to come by, but Mountcastle has little use for those, anyway. 

As for fit, Minnesota is uniquely situated for Mountcastle. Their plans for 1st base and DH appear to be the shrug emoji and a rotating cast of Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, and whoever wants to take it easy that day. The roster begs for a guy like Mountcastle, a bopping right-handed hitter who clarifies the lineup and wouldn’t steal at-bats from deserving players. You could have a perfectly regular rotation with Willi Castro, Julien, and Brooks Lee spelling whoever needs a day off (or gets injured).

There are two issues facing the Twins here: the first is that Mountcastle must be compensated in the form of American dollars, also known as money. That’s a steep ask. His deal for 2025 will be for $6.787 million, and he’ll have one more year of arbitration before hitting free agency following the 2026 season. If you believe Dan Hayes’ recent reports that the Twins had around $5 million of wiggle room before the Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader deals, then the team is about $2 million in the hole (unless they can dump Chris Paddack and/or Christian Vázquez money somewhere else.)

The second is convincing Baltimore to actually trade someone. 

The Orioles appear satisfied in their gluttony. They’ve been oddly Brewers-y, for a young team with an apparent mandate to spend. As Gunner Henderson and Adley Rutschman continue their march to arbitration—and in the wake of Corbin Burnes exiting the picture—Baltimore has decided that Tyler O’Neill is the supplement that will rescue them from the Wild Card round. Their starting rotation is Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and an Oops, All #4 Starters collection including 41-year-old Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and (ahem) very experienced Japanese hurler Tomoyuki Sugano. That's hardly the stable necessary to crush a perpetually dense AL East.

That means that any Mountcastle deal would necessitate capitulation on their end. Rumors have swirled around the first baseman for years, but he still wears orange and black. Evidently, Baltimore believes in the virtue of extreme depth. 

It’s always strange attempting to piece together a fictional deal, but I think a move involving Bailey Ober (with Baltimore eating salary and/or sending a small extra piece) could make sense. Maybe a young hurler like Zebby Matthews or David Festa could sway them, too, depending on who Baltimore prefers. In the end, I think Minnesota would need to dip into their starting pitching reserves. 

Ultimately, I know this is a pipe dream. Baltimore is altering their wall—an explicit acknowledgment that they went too far in 2022—and Mountcastle should thrive once more. Throw in the cost of the player, the money Minnesota needs to shed, and the fact that the Orioles hug their youngsters with a vigor unseen in any other franchise, and the odds that this thing happens are exceedingly low. Still, a man can hope, and I remain steadfast in my belief that the Twins should attempt to acquire Ryan Mountcastle.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I LOVE this idea and this fit. He would help on defense, and his pull heavy swing would play well at Target Field. Plus, with our new hitting coach coming from Baltimore, Borgschulte would certainly know Mountcastle already and know how to help him day to day.

I don't at all think Bailey Ober would be the cost for Mountcastle. That seems very steep unless Baltimore sends more coming back. But we do have a number of young pitchers at AAA that I think could be a good fit going back.

100% I am sold on this. Hopefully it can happen

[Gamblerssoftball]

Not if it includes one of our top four in the starting rotation. Pitching is too hard to come by.

[terrydactyls]

If the Orioles actually do have a "mandate to spend",  send them Paddock and a minor league pitcher for Montcastle.

[Byrdman]

They like infielders so maybe a straight up Castro for Mountcastle trade will work.  We need to move the dollars for the player.  I like the Paddock trade idea mentioned.

 

Edited February 6, 2025 by Byrdman
Paddock

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

Here we are again with the every other day article on trading Bailey Ober for someone else's castaway's.  I know these articles are filler material and all that this time of year, but bro, can you at least throw out reasonable and logical scenarios for us to chew on????

Mountcastle hit 33 homeruns - once - 4 years ago.  Since that time his numbers have literally slid every single since season.  Last year he played 124 games and had 507 at bats - definitely not part time bench player numbers.  He is a full time player so that is not an excuse.  He threw up a .271/.308/.425 line with 13 HRs and 63 RBIs in that top notch Orioles line up.  Not horrible but nothing to give anything of huge value for.  

So for that you are suggesting that in addition to giving up the Twins #2 starter with four years of control AND one of the Twins highest pitching prospects on top of that --- for Ryan Mountcastle !?!?!?!  That's like Randy Dobnek and a prospect in the 20s range at best.

[LambchoP]

I think he would greatly improve our team. Could have him play first and let Miranda DH. Depends on what BAL wants in return. Maybe give them Paddack and a top 10 prospect? Maybe Mathews/Raya and prospect? Let's get it done, this lineup needs another bat!

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, Byrdman said:

They like infielders so maybe a straight up Castro for Mountcastle trade will work.  We need to move the dollars for the player.  I like the Paddock trade idea mentioned.

 

This is a fair trade, although slightly (in my opinion) an overpay by the Twins. 

How in toothpicks did the writer come up with Bailey Ober as a guy to trade for Mountcastle? If we are going to get crazy and wild, propose a trade of Vazquez for Rutschman.

I'm not sure Baltimore wants to trade Mountcastle but Castro works or Topa and Paddack is fair as well.

[High heat]

I have liked Mountcastle but he hasn’t been good at first and he hasn’t been an exceptionally good hitter at 1B either.  
 

I could see them moving Castro and Paddack for him, if they have confidence in Michael Helman playing the super utility role. (I don’t think they do)

 

I think a salary trade and a Rizzo signing is coming tho

[Cory Engelhardt]

Mountcastle was runner up to Santana last year in gold glove voting in 2024 and was also a finalist for gold glove in 2023. 

The Twins have certainly said they want someone who is solid at 1B on defense. I'm not certain they will find a LOT better on defense that is actually available.

But yeah, Bailey Ober alone is MUCH too expensive. I also don't think Castro/Paddack is a fair trade at all. I'd imagine a fair deal is closer to one of our AAA type arms (Zebby/Morris/Lewis/Culpepper/Raya) and maybe a lower level pitching prospect too if it is Lewis or Culpepper) too. 

[TopGunn#22]

Baltimore is over flowing with good prospects and while Tyler O'Neill may be a better fit to compete in 2025, this just stalls the development of Kjerstad, Mayo, Holliday and more.  The Orioles almost certainly need to move either Mountcastle or Ryan O'Hearn to open up a little more opportunity for the prospects.  You can say O'Neill slides in to replace Santander, but they still have Mullins and Colton Cowser in the OF.

I realize that BBTV is not the be all, and end all of gauging trades, but it at least gives you sense of the value of a player.  Bailey Ober, with his talent and contract status is valued at 54.7.  To put that into perspective, Ober is on a par with Jackson Holliday (56.6), Jordan Westburg (59.1), and more valuable than Coby Mayo (46.3).  Ryan Mountcastle's value is 8.7.  

Baltimore needs pitching in the worst way.  Someone like Paddack (3.7) and Billy Amick (7.0) would be an overpay.  Not sure what Ronnie Henriquez has for a value but you could argue Paddack and Henriquez could bring us Mountcastle.  The Orioles still have Ryan O'Hearn for 1B/DH AB's if they deal Mountcastle.  

I'd make that trade.  One other trade I might consider if my commitment to Harrison Bader is just for one year would be a trade of SWR (19.9) for Mountcastle (8.7) and Enrique Bradfield (11.3).  To me it's clear the Twins don't have much faith in Keirsey.  Bradfield is 23 years old, bats left/throws left and is lightening fast. 

But what future does he have in an Orioles OF with Cowser, Kjerstad, O'Neill, Mullins and more??  He made it to A+ last year and stole 74 bases.  His OPS was just .708 but he brings SPEED.  When Buxton's time with the Twins is done, and E-Rod and Jenkins are considered more corner OF, why not have someone with that element of elite speed either leading off or batting 9th? 

I think Mountcastle is the best 1B option for the Twins at the lowest cost, both in salary and prospect capital.  I prefer the Paddack/prospect rated about a 6.0-7.0 for Mountcastle, but I have to admit, having a speed guy like Bradfield intrigues me.  Rocco would turn him into a 15-20 SB guy, so a new manager would probably be needed after the ownership change. 

Mountcastle may never hit 30 HR's again, but 18-25 is possible at Target Field.  He's also a very solid glove (was in the running for a Gold Glove at 1B last season) and to be honest, I'm looking for some back sliding from SWR this season and would much rather see Festa in there. 

Just remember though, Mountcastle's value is 8.7.  Bailey Ober is at 54.7.  Joe Ryan 54.6.  Pablo Lopez 47.8 (despite his contract escalating).  These are guys have tremendous values who just can't be given away for a solid, but not a star 1B.    

[LA Vikes Fan]

21 minutes ago, High heat said:

I have liked Mountcastle but he hasn’t been good at first and he hasn’t been an exceptionally good hitter at 1B either.  
 

I could see them moving Castro and Paddack for him, if they have confidence in Michael Helman playing the super utility role. (I don’t think they do)

 

I think a salary trade and a Rizzo signing is coming tho

I love the Mountcastle idea but God, I hope you're wrong on Rizzo. He is cooked. OPS of .706 is 2023 and .638 in 2024 playing in that LH hitting bandbox called Yankee Stadium. He hits LH and his OPS was even worse against LH pitching at .536 in 2024. He'll be 36 this year. He does nothing to address our actual needs except give us a better glove at 1B.  Mountcastle, sure for the right price (AAA starting pitching or Paddack, not any of the top 4). Rizzo? Please dear God, no. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Mountcastle was runner up to Santana last year in gold glove voting in 2024 and was also a finalist for gold glove in 2023. 

The Twins have certainly said they want someone who is solid at 1B on defense. I'm not certain they will find a LOT better on defense that is actually available.

But yeah, Bailey Ober alone is MUCH too expensive. I also don't think Castro/Paddack is a fair trade at all. I'd imagine a fair deal is closer to one of our AAA type arms (Zebby/Morris/Lewis/Culpepper/Raya) and maybe a lower level pitching prospect too if it is Lewis or Culpepper) too. 

I think you're right on Mountcastle's value. He should fetch a younger high upside pitcher plus. That plus could be a back end starter type now or an MiLB pitcher with upside. Something like Festa or Matthews plus Paddack or Culpepper.  Probably a little more than I would do for a guy who's a Free agent in 2 seasons.  I would trade Paddack plus the MiLB pitcher, say their choice of Culpepper or even Cory Lewis, but that probably isn't enough.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Mountcastle for Ober???? This article and idea belongs in satire right?

[DocBauer]

On the surface it's a perfect match for both teams. The Orioles have too many bats and too little pitching, and the Twins need a BAT/1B and have somewhat or a luxury in the pitching department.

But Mountcastle, LF wall issue or not, has seen his HR and RBI numbers drop every single season since 2021. He's a solid hitter at .265 for his career and a .316 OB% but there's nothing elite about that, or his declining numbers. And even with the wall in LF, he still plays half his games on the road. So why a 3 year decline? I would have expected more neutral numbers after the wall was moved/raised.

I'd say Paddack for an arm to help the Orioles NOW, and balance the books, and Morris or Raya to help by midseason at the latest, and a 3rd offering could be another potential rotation arm, or current pen arm throw in, or a solid MILB position player. To me that's fair for both clubs, and for a 1B only player who's bat is OK, with upside, but is on a downturn plane at the moment. 

I could do this, and both teams should. It's just a matter of the value of the 3rd Twins offering. But in NO WAY do I even consider Ober or Ryan for a 1B only player with some bat questions. 

[High heat]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I love the Mountcastle idea but God, I hope you're wrong on Rizzo. He is cooked. OPS of .706 is 2023 and .638 in 2024 playing in that LH hitting bandbox called Yankee Stadium. He hits LH and his OPS was even worse against LH pitching at .536 in 2024. He'll be 36 this year. He does nothing to address our actual needs except give us a better glove at 1B.  Mountcastle, sure for the right price (AAA starting pitching or Paddack, not any of the top 4). Rizzo? Please dear God, no. 

I don’t think he is ideal but he is a solid defender at 1B with us not having anyone who has played significant time at 1B on the roster. Along with have a championship pedigree and can be had for a low price he seems like the perfect fit in the Twins mind.  
 

I would be suprised if the Twins go into ST with the current OFers on the roster and no one with 1B experience. 

[tony&rodney]

Although I'm not a big fan of BTV and don't belong to the site I would agree that it gives at least a very rough clue to value at some level. Pitching is really valuable, especially young pitchers under control for 3-6 years and having any reasonable potential. It would be crazy to trade a rotation piece or even any of Festa, Matthews, Raya, or Morris for Mountcastle. 

Mountcastle for Paddack and Topa is roughly fair.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 minutes ago, High heat said:

I don’t think he is ideal but he is a solid defender at 1B with us not having anyone who has played significant time at 1B on the roster. Along with have a championship pedigree and can be had for a low price he seems like the perfect fit in the Twins mind.  
 

I would be suprised if the Twins go into ST with the current OFers on the roster and no one with 1B experience. 

I understand that mindset but just don't agree. I think the Twins plan on playing Miranda at 1B every day and the backup plan is Julien. To me, 1B is an offense first position and it is not worth playing a guy there who can't hit much no matter who good the glove. Plus, Rizzo is at most a 1 year stop gap who does nothing for the the next 2-4 years for this team.  We need to develop the core for the hopefully opening window to really contend. Rizzo does nothing to help us do that.  

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

We need to develop the core for the hopefully opening window to really contend.

From my side, this is what the Twins should do. I'm not sure what Falvey thinks though and he is the boss and may have totally different ideas ... like Rizzo, which is a yuck even though he is a great guy.

[chpettit19]

Mountcastle is an interesting option. But I agree with everyone else, Ober is an outrageous cost for him. For a reasonable price, I'd take Mountcastle. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm really unclear why this team is shopping Ryan or Ober in any deal other than to get a really good young bat.

If they want Ober for Mayo...well we can have a chat then.  But shopping him for Cease and Mountcastle feels like a really, really bad use of assets.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins have 3 LH hitters. What's the obsession with getting a RH hitter on this board?

no chance I deal a legit number 2/3 starting pitcher for him. Might be the worst idea ever. 

[tony&rodney]

Unless the Twins trade for Cease and manage to retain their guys like Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews, and Morris I cannot imagine a scenario where any SP goes to another team. In the event that Cease is added, I would want more than Mayo for Ober or Ryan. I might consider a trade for Basallo.

Mountcastle would be a decent addition for Paddack and Topa, that's about all I can think of right now.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Although I'm not a big fan of BTV and don't belong to the site I would agree that it gives at least a very rough clue to value at some level. Pitching is really valuable, especially young pitchers under control for 3-6 years and having any reasonable potential. It would be crazy to trade a rotation piece or even any of Festa, Matthews, Raya, or Morris for Mountcastle. 

Mountcastle for Paddack and Topa is roughly fair.

 

& probably throw in Henriquez for good measure.

[Doctor Gast]

BAL don't like to trade their players, neither do MN or very good at it. How does this trade get done if nobody initiates it?

[Doctor Gast]

I actually prefer Endy Rodriguez. He can help out at 1B & also give us some quality catching help.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm really unclear why this team is shopping Ryan or Ober in any deal other than to get a really good young bat.

If they want Ober for Mayo...well we can have a chat then.  But shopping him for Cease and Mountcastle feels like a really, really bad use of assets.

Mayo and.......and....

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

& probably throw in Henriquez.

Sure. Henriquez is good but he is out of options.

Just to add a note on the Baseball Trade Values site. I looked up Royce Lewis just now and his value is 60.4 and his value at the end of the season was 31.7. Apparently, the offseason conditioning program that Royce has dedicated himself to has created great value or been noticed by someone.  I'm hopeful for Lewis but that is quite a jump in value. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Mayo and.......and....

Garlick, ketchup, & pickles to go with the Ober sandwich.

[gmwannabe]

Ober and Duran for Basallo and Mountcastle. Long term catching solution (who can also play 1st when not catching) and 1st base solved. The money is about a wash. Now get Cease to replace Ober.