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With the Orioles signing Ramón Laureano on Tuesday, it seems that, once again, Baltimore has more hitters than they know what to do with. Their lineup was already crowded, with Heston Kjerstad on the bench in most formulations of the lineup and Coby Mayo stuck at Triple-A Norfolk, meaning a piece or two needs to wiggle free, lest a player needing time in the majors finds himself out in the rain.
So, why a Ryan Mountcastle deal specifically? Perhaps no hitter on the team was more cursed by the Orioles’ horrid left-field wall botch job, often called a “modification.” A dead-pull hitter by nature, Mountcastle shifted his approach to favor democracy because, frankly, even Harmon Killebrew would find hitting into a wall as big and distant as the one deemed sufficient to separate Berlin a frustrating task. In response, his numbers have been merely fine, not overwhelming for a slugger; his career wRC+ is 112.
Target Field suffers from no such malaise. It’s the eighth-friendliest stadium to righties since 2022, according to Statcast’s ballpark metrics. Homers occur at an above-average rate; doubles are accepted as fond company. Singles are tougher to come by, but Mountcastle has little use for those, anyway.
As for fit, Minnesota is uniquely situated for Mountcastle. Their plans for 1st base and DH appear to be the shrug emoji and a rotating cast of Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, and whoever wants to take it easy that day. The roster begs for a guy like Mountcastle, a bopping right-handed hitter who clarifies the lineup and wouldn’t steal at-bats from deserving players. You could have a perfectly regular rotation with Willi Castro, Julien, and Brooks Lee spelling whoever needs a day off (or gets injured).
There are two issues facing the Twins here: the first is that Mountcastle must be compensated in the form of American dollars, also known as money. That’s a steep ask. His deal for 2025 will be for $6.787 million, and he’ll have one more year of arbitration before hitting free agency following the 2026 season. If you believe Dan Hayes’ recent reports that the Twins had around $5 million of wiggle room before the Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader deals, then the team is about $2 million in the hole (unless they can dump Chris Paddack and/or Christian Vázquez money somewhere else.)
The second is convincing Baltimore to actually trade someone.
The Orioles appear satisfied in their gluttony. They’ve been oddly Brewers-y, for a young team with an apparent mandate to spend. As Gunner Henderson and Adley Rutschman continue their march to arbitration—and in the wake of Corbin Burnes exiting the picture—Baltimore has decided that Tyler O’Neill is the supplement that will rescue them from the Wild Card round. Their starting rotation is Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, and an Oops, All #4 Starters collection including 41-year-old Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and (ahem) very experienced Japanese hurler Tomoyuki Sugano. That's hardly the stable necessary to crush a perpetually dense AL East.
That means that any Mountcastle deal would necessitate capitulation on their end. Rumors have swirled around the first baseman for years, but he still wears orange and black. Evidently, Baltimore believes in the virtue of extreme depth.
It’s always strange attempting to piece together a fictional deal, but I think a move involving Bailey Ober (with Baltimore eating salary and/or sending a small extra piece) could make sense. Maybe a young hurler like Zebby Matthews or David Festa could sway them, too, depending on who Baltimore prefers. In the end, I think Minnesota would need to dip into their starting pitching reserves.
Ultimately, I know this is a pipe dream. Baltimore is altering their wall—an explicit acknowledgment that they went too far in 2022—and Mountcastle should thrive once more. Throw in the cost of the player, the money Minnesota needs to shed, and the fact that the Orioles hug their youngsters with a vigor unseen in any other franchise, and the odds that this thing happens are exceedingly low. Still, a man can hope, and I remain steadfast in my belief that the Twins should attempt to acquire Ryan Mountcastle.
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