3 Potential Chris Paddack Trades the Minnesota Twins Could Consider

[Cody Christie]

It’s closing in on the point during the offseason when the Twins’ front office tends to get active. The Twins are considering trading veteran players, and the righty starter is at the top of the list. 

 

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

With the start of spring training on the horizon, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in a position to retool their roster. According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, trade talks involving Twins pitcher Chris Paddack are gaining traction. Paddack’s injury history and salary implications make a deal logical, especially with promising arms like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Marco Raya rising through the pipeline.

According to Hayes, Twins utilityman Willi Castro and Paddack have been discussed in a potential deal. In the article, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey confirmed that the talks around both players have picked up, with spring training only weeks away. Some teams have missed out on free-agent targets, so they turn to trades to supplement their roster. 

"You don't know where things are going to land," Falvey said. "But I can tell you we've had more active conversations in the last couple of weeks than we've had prior. Hopefully, it's a signal of the same thing that we have some traction on a few different ideas and concepts especially as teams start to turn. Some to the trade market, some to the free-agent market... I'm hopeful there's still some opportunity there."

Here are three potential trade scenarios that could make sense for the Twins as they try to maximize Paddack’s trade value.

1. Chris Paddack to the Miami Marlins for Bullpen Depth
The Twins have made moves with the Marlins in recent seasons, so it makes sense for the two clubs to discuss another potential trade. Trading Paddack to Miami could give the Twins a solid reliever to bolster their late-inning options. One intriguing name is left-hander Andrew Nardi, a high-strikeout lefty who could add another dimension to the Twins' bullpen. Last season, he posted a 33.3 K% in 49 2/3 innings. He ended last season on the injured list with a left elbow muscle injury but is expected to be ready for 2025. 

For the Marlins, a healthy Paddack would fit nicely into their rotation or as a swingman. Shedding Paddack’s $7.5 million salary would provide the Twins financial flexibility, while addressing their bullpen depth issues. However, there is no guarantee that Miami is looking to add big-league-caliber players after a 100-loss season in 2024. 

2. Chris Paddack and Willi Castro to the Cincinnati Reds for Prospect Capital
According to Hayes, Castro’s name has also been floated in trade discussions, which opens the door for a multi-player deal. The Reds are a young team hoping to reemerge as contenders, and could use a veteran starter like Paddack to eat innings while mentoring younger pitchers. Pairing him with Castro, a versatile utilityman, would give Cincinnati depth and flexibility at multiple positions. The Twins have made multiple trades with the Reds under the current front-office regime, so the two sides are very familiar with each other. 

In return, the Twins could target a prospect like infielder Edwin Arroyo or catcher Alfredo Duno. Both players fit the Twins' long-term plans, with Arroyo providing middle-infield depth and Duno offering a long-term catching prospect. This trade would align with the Twins’ goal of balancing present competitiveness with future sustainability. With Arroyo or Duno as the headliner, the Twins would likely need other prospects added to the deal to surrender Castro and Paddack. Cincinnati has a chance to compete in the NL Central, and both players help to upgrade their roster for 2025.  

3. Chris Paddack to the San Diego Padres for a Catcher
Could a reunion with the Padres be in the cards for Paddack? San Diego’s aggressive pursuit of pitching depth each offseason makes them a logical trade partner. The Twins could explore a swap involving one of San Diego’s catchers, such as Brandon Valenzuela. The young backstop has shown flashes of offensive potential but remains blocked by other catching prospects ahead of him in their system. Last season, he hit .232/.312/.352 (.664) with 19 doubles and nine home runs in 111 games between Double- and Triple-A. 

The Twins’ catching depth is lacking in the minor leagues, and it has been a focus for the front office this winter. Minnesota already has five potential catchers on the 40-man roster. Adding Valenzuela would give the Twins another young, controllable piece at a premium position, while the Padres gamble on Paddack’s upside for their rotation.

Trading Paddack would be a calculated move for the Twins. While his injury history (including two Tommy John surgeries) creates risk for any suitor, his upside as a starter or bulk reliever could make him an intriguing target. By moving on from Paddack, the Twins would save $7.5 million, which could be redirected toward addressing other roster needs. Additionally, Festa and Matthews already impacted the big-league roster last season, so Minnesota’s future rotation looks bright.

As Falvey indicated, the market is heating up, and the Twins appear to be in a strong position to make a deal. Whether it’s bullpen help, prospect capital, or catching depth, trading Paddack could allow the Twins to strengthen their roster for 2025 and beyond.

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Which deal makes the most sense for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Brandon]

I'm torn on trading Paddack.  on one hand we get Festa as the 5th starter and developing further in the majors.  On the other hand we have less depth.  I feel like Paddack is good for 130 innings this season at a below 4.00 era which is a value at 7.5 million.  back to the first hand, I guess the 7.5 million saved is important and this is the area to do that.  

[Karbo]

Trading Paddack makes sense, but they need to get someone of value back, while keeping him would be like a security blanket. After all, when was the last time the team went through a full season with just 5 starters? Also, I don't feel real comfortable yet with SWR in the 4 hole. Sure he looked godd for most of the year last season, but who knows if that was more a "career season" or if he will turn into a pumpkin?

[tony&rodney]

The odds of Chris Paddack throwing more than 90 innings are quite low. Personally I beleive Paddack would be a good arm for the bullpen. If the Twins are still considering him for the rotation above either of Woods Richardson or Festa, I would hope for a trade, any trade. There should be one team out there that is willing to send a PTBNL for Paddack. 

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The odds of Chris Paddack throwing more than 90 innings are quite low. Personally I beleive Paddack would be a good arm for the bullpen. If the Twins are still considering him for the rotation above either of Woods Richardson or Festa, I would hope for a trade, any trade. There should be one team out there that is willing to send a PTBNL for Paddack. 

I would make that deal for Arroyo in a heartbeat and then spend the salary saved on 1B or a RH hitting OFer.

[Blyleven2011]

No way Miami  is taking on the salary for one year , plus trading starting pitchers for bullpen arms doesn't make sense  ...

The Padres are shedding payroll  , so no to this trade idea ...

Trading paddack and castro to Cincinnati has the most sense  , but the return should be better than mentioned  ...

Maybe the giants , Oakland  or angels would be interested  , 

The front office seems to want  plenty in return  , they in my opinion are gun shy of trading , since the  2022 deadline trades  , they made a trade last year but got back nothing to help the 2024 team , we need trades to help the major league roster ...

[sweetmusicviola16]

36 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I'm torn on trading Paddack.  on one hand we get Festa as the 5th starter and developing further in the majors.  On the other hand we have less depth.  I feel like Paddack is good for 130 innings this season at a below 4.00 era which is a value at 7.5 million.  back to the first hand, I guess the 7.5 million saved is important and this is the area to do that.  

I feel the same way. We have Joe Ryan coming back from injury. Is he ready to go full out yet? At the very least I suspect he'll be on a strict pitch count. But if he isn't ready our starting staff is Lopez, Ober, Richardson at # 3 and he has yet to prove he can consistently get into the fifth inning. Then we have Festa and Matthews. If Paddack is ever going to put it together then this is it. History also shows that guys are much better and stronger their second season after surgery.

As for the trade proposals the 3rd one looks like it might have the best chance of flying, and if not the Padres another team offering a viable catching prospect like Valenzuela.

[Doctor Gast]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The odds of Chris Paddack throwing more than 90 innings are quite low. Personally I beleive Paddack would be a good arm for the bullpen. If the Twins are still considering him for the rotation above either of Woods Richardson or Festa, I would hope for a trade, any trade. There should be one team out there that is willing to send a PTBNL for Paddack. 

I see where you're coming from, But if the '25 goal is 100+ innings instead the lofty 140 innings laid on him last year, IMO he could reach it. At any time if he labors at all I'd put him in the BP.

[Doctor Gast]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I feel the same way. We have Joe Ryan coming back from injury. Is he ready to go full out yet? At the very least I suspect he'll be on a strict pitch count. But if he isn't ready our starting staff is Lopez, Ober, Richardson at # 3 and he has yet to prove he can consistently get into the fifth inning. Then we have Festa and Matthews. If Paddack is ever going to put it together then this is it. History also shows that guys are much better and stronger their second season after surgery.

As for the trade proposals the 3rd one looks like it might have the best chance of flying, and if not the Padres another team offering a viable catching prospect like Valenzuela.

I'd rather keep Paddack also but if they need to cut budget Paddack would the easiest to trade & replace. 

[gman]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd rather keep Paddack also but if they need to cut budget Paddack would the easiest to trade & replace. 

If the Twins "need" to cut budget the Twins could replace Paddack in both the starter and reliever venue with internal options easier than Vasquez or Castro. This is the first time in years the Twins might actually, maybe, possibly have a bit of surplus on the pitching side. Keeping Paddack also takes away major league development time from Festa and Mathews.

[old nurse]

Paddack as an innings eater. That is funny. His peak innings pitched was 143. That was in 2019. In terms of a baseball player’s career, that was a long time ago.. the only correct thing is Paddack as a throw in on a trade. I doubt if Castro is going anywhere unless they are wowed by the trade 

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather let the young starters pitch.

But I'd also not like to roster any of the trade targets listed. So I guess if that's what he's worth, I keep him.

[Doctor Gast]

Nardi is one of my targets but MIA has been focusing on prospects. Unless the fact that MLB frowns on a budget less than $100M & MIA doesn't want a black check on their name. I'm not sure how that works.

CIN is watching their budget & so is SD. Last offseason I thought Bart (SF) would have been interesting pickups. Bart got a chance with PIT & ran with it. But 4 fringe catchers plus whoever else they have at AAA is too many.

At BTV I put in a lot of trade offers to many teams & got many positive responses. But as the teams started to fill out their rotations the numbers greatly reduced. Right now my best responses are from BAL, NYM, As & LA. TX was pretty good, so I'll go fishing again & see what I come up with.

 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'd be concerned with acquiring another catcher from SD with us already in a jam with too many on the 40-man.

I also don't think they can afford to have that many catchers on the 40-man roster. If they add one they need to subtract one.

I would see if Oakland would trade Miguel Andujar for Paddack. That saves $4.5M and gets them their RH hitting bench OF. Andujar has played 3B & 1B as well.

Another possibility would be trading Paddack to Texas for Leody Tavares.

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I feel like Paddack is good for 130 innings this season at a below 4.00 era which is a value at 7.5 million.

That would be a career year for Paddack. He's put up a 4.90 ERA over the last 5 seasons. Anything's possible but that scenario has a <10% likelihood of happening. It's roughly as likely that Festa or Matthews would be able to do that.

[LambchoP]

I say keep him. You can never have too many starters, especially with Ryan coming off injury and SWR not proven yet. We saw what happened last year when we tried to rely on Festa and Mathews. If one of our AAA SP are needing a call up, Paddack could be great in the pen. If we do trade him, it should only be for major league players. We have more than enough depth/prospect/ AAAA players...

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

spend the salary saved on 1B or a RH hitting OFer.

FWIW, I highly doubt the Twins are not spending the $4-9M necessary to sign a guy like Hays or Grichuk due to financial limits. Rather I would suggest Falvey wants to see either what is available via trade or he wants to see how his current guys produce.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 hour ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

The odds of Chris Paddack throwing more than 90 innings are quite low. Personally I beleive Paddack would be a good arm for the bullpen. If the Twins are still considering him for the rotation above either of Woods Richardson or Festa, I would hope for a trade, any trade. There should be one team out there that is willing to send a PTBNL for Paddack. 

Paddack in the bullpen always seemed like the logical move, but at that salary, I can see the Twins having other ideas.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Paddack in the bullpen always seemed like the logical move, but at that salary, I can see the Twins having other ideas.

This is a potential problem that directly affects the win-loss column. Usage of players according to contract is as silly as a high school coach using a senior with zero talent or leadership versus the underclassman who has talent. Yet it happens. 

FWIW, I do think Paddack is a keeper in the bullpen and swing starter role. If he is plopped into the rotation at the beginning of the year and kept there until the injury bug bites again, the Twins are aiming for a .500 record.

[tony&rodney]

Here is an idea I would like to see Falvey propose to Arizona, although I highly doubt it would receive  a friendly ear. Duran, Paddack, Castro, Yasser Mercedes, and Kyle DeBarge go to the Dbacks for Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Lawler, and Druw Jones. Why not?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

23 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

This is a potential problem that directly affects the win-loss column. Usage of players according to contract is as silly as a high school coach using a senior with zero talent or leadership versus the underclassman who has talent. Yet it happens. 

FWIW, I do think Paddack is a keeper in the bullpen and swing starter role. If he is plopped into the rotation at the beginning of the year and kept there until the injury bug bites again, the Twins are aiming for a .500 record.

I still have PTSD from Zebby's start against Toronto - IIRC, he gave up like 7 runs before he got the first out. Paddack at this current price point is more than reasonable to be in the bullpen and a spot starter. Unfortunately, I don't think the Twins feel the same way.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

This is a potential problem that directly affects the win-loss column. Usage of players according to contract is as silly as a high school coach using a senior with zero talent or leadership versus the underclassman who has talent. Yet it happens. 

FWIW, I do think Paddack is a keeper in the bullpen and swing starter role. If he is plopped into the rotation at the beginning of the year and kept there until the injury bug bites again, the Twins are aiming for a .500 record.

If he's in the rotation until the injury bug bites, it will have bitten by the end of April, likely earlier. That's not directed at Paddack or anyone else in particular. It's just the reality of pitchers' arms. 

For that reason, I'm glad to retain another arm that delays the need for Matthews (4 AAA starts to date), Raya (1 AAA start), et. al, or the need for the Dobnaks of the world.

Festa will be up by by the end of April (at the latest, including if he isn't needed already by Opening Day). I'd rather it be him moving into the top 5 at some point than Matthews.

(Was it you that I was having this conversation with last week in another string?)

 

(It's actually the same reason I don't mind them saying that they are still viewing Varland as a starter. I'm skeptical it will work, but he does have some MLB experience and some potential, and it's a whole lot easier to prep for being a starter and then move to the pen than it is the other way around.) 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Here is an idea I would like to see Falvey propose to Arizona, although I highly doubt it would receive  a friendly ear. Duran, Paddack, Castro, Yasser Mercedes, and Kyle DeBarge go to the Dbacks for Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Lawler, and Druw Jones. Why not?

Because it involves too many bodies. I don't think teams are willing to make massive trades, including some that include MLB roster spots, this late in the offeason. 

 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

Trading Paddack makes sense, but they need to get someone of value back, while keeping him would be like a security blanket. After all, when was the last time the team went through a full season with just 5 starters? Also, I don't feel real comfortable yet with SWR in the 4 hole. Sure he looked godd for most of the year last season, but who knows if that was more a "career season" or if he will turn into a pumpkin?

Which do you have more confidence in....SWR as a productive #4 in the rotation or Paddack throwing 130 innings.

I'm going with SWR.

[cmoss84]

Can we package Paddock + Vasquez + prospect for ?

[FargoFanMan]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

I'm torn on trading Paddack.  on one hand we get Festa as the 5th starter and developing further in the majors.  On the other hand we have less depth.  I feel like Paddack is good for 130 innings this season at a below 4.00 era which is a value at 7.5 million.  back to the first hand, I guess the 7.5 million saved is important and this is the area to do that.  

You trade him and get what in the trade and with that money? If the Twins actually do something with that money that is. What do you get with at most $7.5M at this point of the off-season that improves the team more than your sub 4 ERA and 130 innings?

[FargoFanMan]

5 hours ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

The odds of Chris Paddack throwing more than 90 innings are quite low. Personally I beleive Paddack would be a good arm for the bullpen. If the Twins are still considering him for the rotation above either of Woods Richardson or Festa, I would hope for a trade, any trade. There should be one team out there that is willing to send a PTBNL for Paddack. 

I agree with him in the bullpen. At this point of his career he’s never proven he can make it through a full season. Maybe he lengthens his career moving to the BP. He was lights out a few years ago. I think it’s a win-win for him and the team.

[FargoFanMan]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I still have PTSD from Zebby's start against Toronto - IIRC, he gave up like 7 runs before he got the first out. Paddack at this current price point is more than reasonable to be in the bullpen and a spot starter. Unfortunately, I don't think the Twins feel the same way.

Dude was also playing high A ball starting the year. He fared well somewhat but he was tired. Was way over his previous max innings for a season. There was bound to be a blow up at some point. I think you keep Paddack at this point. You’re not getting anything in a trade and they’re not getting any more value than him with the money if they even use it. Keep him and see what happens. He’s depth if nothing else until the injury bug bites again.

[ashbury]

I might try for ju-jitsu - a pair of related moves that aren't directly very aggressive but have synergy together.

I'd look into trading Paddack plus some minimal prospect capital for a good fielder at SS who has an adequate but subpar bat and a low salary, i.e. a backup who's better than waiver wire fodder.

At the same time I'd look at trading  Castro to someone else for a capable but probably not stellar relief pitcher at a low salary plus some minimal prospect capital coming back to us. 

The combined aim would be to have a slightly different mix of skills at the utility infield position (Willi is no great shakes at SS while his bat is overrated anyplace else), and in effect redeploy Paddack into some other relief arm at lower cost, since that could turn out to be his best use anyway. 

It gets out from under the two not-terribly significant salaries that seem to be such an issue, at perhaps a slight downgrade at the two positions, but we have minor-league candidates for both roles who might be better and would surpass the two incumbents soon anyway.  For decent return at the major league level, we might have to take a net loss on the prospects going out versus coming back, but nothing remotely like a top-ten prospect leaving unless something similar comes back.

I don't think you could trade Paddack for pitching, nor Castro for infield help, directly.  But the desire to trade both of them creates opportunity, without the need to orchestrate an actual 3-team trade yet with the same end result.

[Hubie29]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

I'm torn on trading Paddack.  on one hand we get Festa as the 5th starter and developing further in the majors.  On the other hand we have less depth.  I feel like Paddack is good for 130 innings this season at a below 4.00 era which is a value at 7.5 million.  back to the first hand, I guess the 7.5 million saved is important and this is the area to do that.  

The odds of Paddack having a sub 4 era are slim and none, and slim just left town. If he was sub 4 he would slot in as a top 3 pitcher in the rotation, and trading him would be foolish.  As a more likely 4.50 to 5.00 era, he is definitely expendable.

[DocBauer]

I think a year further removed from his 2nd TJ, there's a reasonable chance Paddack can maintain his velocity better. As I understand it, his vaunted changup wasn't as good last season. With more consistent velocity, his improved breaking ball, and a better feel for his change, he brings potential value. That's why teams have shown interest. It's also what makes him interesting to just keep as well.

WITH Paddack, one of Festa or SWR begins the year in St Paul as Ober did to begin 2023. It's not "fair", but it provides depth that will be needed at some point. I have a lot of good feelings about Matthews, Morris, Lewis, and Raya. (I think Adams might be the next Jax/Sands). And I'd rather give Mathews and the others a little more time at AAA vs having to rely on them "too soon". Paddack could start in the rotation and move to the pen later. Potential win-win foe the Twins if they keep him.

But moving him...possibly with a lower level prospect thrown in...might allow a little room for a couple of adds to the rest of the roster. There's still a lot of decent ballplayers out there looking for jobs. Paddack's $7.5M COULD be just enough for a LHRP like Chaffin or Poche, still available, and with mostly neutral splits. And there's a handful of RHOF still looking for work that might have to settle for a 1yr deal of about $3-4M. Paddack might be able to allow those couple of signings on his own. It means someone might get called up sooner than hoped for, but you manage to work the edges of the roster to an advantage. 

IDEALLY,  someone out there has a young RHOF that is blocked or superfluous they would be willing to move for Paddack and a decent, lower level prospect. Cubs, Brewers, Orioles, who's looking for a bonus arm for the backend of their rotation and might have a young RH bat to move?

That would be ideal! Then you can grab said LHRP with some track record, and MAYBE sneak in Turner on a cheap 1yr deal, though it might push the payroll. Maybe France who has some bounceback potential at only 30yo?

Moving Paddack takes away pitching depth and makes the Twins trust in their collection of young arms a little quicker than they might like. But if they find the right deal, and get back a decent ML player option, with his $7.5M gone, they might end up with a 3 for 2 that can deepen the 2025 roster.

I am COMPLETELY OUT on moving Castro for ANY reason unless blown away. I have some belief, and a lot of hope, that Keirsey and Helman and an improved Martin can make a decent bench with speed, athleticism, and versatility. But the bench is questionable enough as is without removing Castro.