Monday's Free-Agent Deals Should Give Us All the Information We Need About the Chris Paddack Market

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack would be a good swing man in the bullpen. It would also protect his arm and allow the Twins to use the better starting pitchers ahead of him. I would agree with those who suggest using Paddack in the pen and trading him at the deadline if at all, unless the Twins find a suitable, useful transaction before that time. The only decent or interesting right handed bats are available via trade. The cost may be dear and require some additional moves as well.

If anything, the demand for Chris Paddack may be increased with the signing of Lorenzen. They are similar pitchers, although I feel Paddack might be better as a high leverage reliever late in the year. As pitchers come off the board a few teams will be left with some shortages in the pitching department.

For now, Paddack fits nicely in the bullpen. It would be ridiculous to ignore where Paddack fits on the team just because he has a salary higher than another player. Neither Jax nor Duran makes as much as Paddack and we should not elevate Chris P. to the closer role. Put the players in the best role for success.

A quick search will show that the Twins have not made one single comment about cutting payroll nor having a hard number, say $130 million. The only references to payroll from ownership have stated that no cuts will be made. Everyone, everyone who is a fan of the Twins would love a $150-200M payroll. The mandatory false statements in almost every article are detracting from the articles. False statements do that. 

It seems the F.O. is operating toward a goal of “around where we are at currently”……$140Mish. But, I completely agree on the $130M being stated as “the floor” for this year’s payroll. Haven’t seen anything stating that the Team/FO can’t spend a nickel more than $130M! I’ve stated this logic before, why would the Pohlad’s try to save $12-$20M this year at the detriment of the Team’s success in ‘25 and their level of buyer attraction dropping. Doesn’t seem to be difficult to re-coup $20M in a $1.45B sale. Right?

[JD-TWINS]

Paddack trade doesn’t seem to bring back much value v. keeping him. Use him as max effort guy for 60-70 innings from PEN. Use him 5-7 times as a spot starter and Team gets 100 innings from him, which IMO, he’s capable of without health issues. Good value at $7.5M.

A Vazquez trade either costs prospect capital or Cash to share his $10M contract cost. He brings decent defense - good clubhouse attitude - continuity with current Staff. His offense is easily better than anything Camargo would produce. Keep him, unless another young, MLB ready Catcher can be obtained via trade.

IMO, Castro can be covered by multiple others that will all be on the roster anyway. Lee - Martin - Kiersey - Miranda can come together to handle the void created with Castro’s departure. Trade Castro - Matthews - Julien - Henriquez - Martin - Duran in some combination to bring back a MLB ready Catcher or an offensive upgrade at 1B……..both would be great! Vazquez or Jeffers should be available to get these positions filled adequately.

Festa & SWR have #4 & #5 rotation spots covered. Morris - Culpepper - Lewis - Adams - Raya for rotation depth (assuming Matthews is a trade chip)

Varland - Headrick - Topa - Paddack added to some combination of last year’s PEN seems like a serious upgrade.

[sweetmusicviola16]

imo the market for Paddack just isn't there yet. Sasaki, Flaherty, Pivetta, Quintana, Scherzer, Heaney, Gibson, Turnbull are all still available. Flaherty and Pivetta market is different as they would require forfeiting a draft pick. Sasaki is just IFA money. as for the other five, all they require is FA cash. Why try to trade for an oft injured Paddack when you can sign an oft injured Turnbull for likely less money? My best guess is Paddack is not traded until Mid March at the earliest. Maybe even well into the season. I think teams will only look to Paddack when they see if he is healthy and as an injury replacement for their team.

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Put him in the pen, let him dominate there for half the season, then trade him at the deadline if the Pohlads really need to save that 3ish million and you'd actually get something in return for him.

Have you decided Paddack is going to "dominate" in the bullpen based on his 5.0 innings of 5.40 ERA work there in 2023 where he pitched against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies to close out the season?

[bean5302]

Paddack is not good enough to be in the Twins' rotation, and he's not good enough to be in a serious playoff competitor's rotation all year. He is good enough to eat the 80 or so innings he will be able to pitch before becoming hurt on a team down a starter out of the gate.

Paddack hasn't pitched a full season in his entire 6 year career. Thinking he'll be A) Healthy and B) Productive (ERA under 4.00) for the first time since 2019 so the Twins can move his salary after they've already eaten 70% doesn't seem realistic to me.

If the Twins care about clearing space, now is the time to move Paddack.

[Devilsadvocate]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Put him in the pen, let him dominate there for half the season, then trade him at the deadline if the Pohlads really need to save that 3ish million and you'd actually get something in return for him.

From 1 to 100, what do you place the likelihood of Paddock actually dominating out of the pen? Genuinely curious to know how realistic you feel this is.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Have you decided Paddack is going to "dominate" in the bullpen based on his 5.0 innings of 5.40 ERA work there in 2023 where he pitched against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies to close out the season?

Sort of, thanks for asking. 

His pen data is far too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from. Not sure why you left out his 3.2 innings of 0.00 ERA with 6 Ks and 1 base runner allowed against Houston in the postseason that year, though.

I don't know if he'll dominate out of the pen, but I liked the way he looked in 2023, and he has good stuff so there's a solid argument to be made that he'd be really good in short bursts allowing his stuff to play up. I don't think it'd be smart to rely on less than 10 innings worth of data to determine his potential there so I was using good old fashioned human scouting on this one.

I don't think he's worth a rotation spot because I don't think he can stay healthy in the rotation. I'm not interested in flat out salary dumps if the Pohlads aren't absolutely forcing it. So, if it's an option, I'd prefer to try him in the pen where it's quite reasonable that he'd be very good like he was against Houston.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Devilsadvocate said:

From 1 to 100, what do you place the likelihood of Paddock actually dominating out of the pen? Genuinely curious to know how realistic you feel this is.

70 maybe? He has good stuff. He's never healthy, though. Plenty of guys with worse stuff than him have gone and seen their stuff play up in the pen in short bursts. You never really know, but I'd say it's a better than 50/50 shot and I'd rather try that than just trade him away for nothing just to save the Pohlads a couple bucks.

If you can get an actual return for him it changes the equation. If clearing his money opens the door for a different trade or signing of a player with a better chance to improve the team (not a Margot type addition) I'd take that, but if it's a straight salary dump I'd rather see them take a chance at him in the pen where I think there's a solid chance he's really good.

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Two comments have been publicly made.

1] The Twins stated they were not looking to cut payroll any further.

2] They also stated they weren't expecting to add to payroll. 

The gray area is the fact they've never stated $130M or the proposed end of 2024 season and expected cost of bringing the team back as is, which pretty much puts the expected payroll of $134-140M.

Since, to my recollection, and actual, firm $ amount has yet to be stated, conjecture varies with $130M being the starting point based on the 2024 opening day number. 

But $130 fits the rube narrative.

[miracleb]

17 hours ago, Linus said:

Just keep the guy - there is a decent chance we don’t make it out of spring training without having an injury to a starter.

Agree.......but also because they won't have a choice in the matter.

[Original_JB]

Re: the 'supposed' $130M payroll figure.

Ultimately, all we can go by is the actions/inaction of the team in FA to this point.  If this were a 'normal' offseason (now remember the Twins are never the 1st team with their foot in the water), what FA signings have occurred that realistically, the Twins would have been 'involved in'? How many "OMG, we could have had player "X" for only (some typical value price)" type signings have there been?

[Bodie]

19 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Keep Paddack and roll the dice. Start Zebby at AAA. We used 8 SPs last year and could use the depth. 

He ain't depth, any more than I am.

If you can trade him for a bag of balls, you do it.  There are a slew of 5+ ERA pitchers that can be had for much less than $7.5M.

If you want "depth"...

[twinstalker]

Define "trade."  Guessing it's trading his salary for nothing that is the hope.  Same with Vazquez.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Paddack is not good enough to be in the Twins' rotation, and he's not good enough to be in a serious playoff competitor's rotation all year. He is good enough to eat the 80 or so innings he will be able to pitch before becoming hurt on a team down a starter out of the gate.

Paddack hasn't pitched a full season in his entire 6 year career. Thinking he'll be A) Healthy and B) Productive (ERA under 4.00) for the first time since 2019 so the Twins can move his salary after they've already eaten 70% doesn't seem realistic to me.

If the Twins care about clearing space, now is the time to move Paddack.

Everyone else in Baseball knows his history as well - everyone has access to data as well. Pretty tough to get any value in trade - I think we all agree there. $7.5M and a guy the organization knows, for 85-100 innings of relief combined with half-dozen spot starts seems like a decent value. Only 3-4 of the starts are likely to be of good quality. My “hope” is that with decent rest and lower innings he can be a good 2 inning bridge guy in the PEN…….something like Sands was earlier in ‘24.

He pitched in 3 outings in ‘23 and gave up 3 in one outing and none in the other two - 5 total innings. Can’t really make a “reliever” judgement on that amount of work coming back from year long injury……,.He then threw 3 2/3 in the playoffs over 2 games and he had a .27 WHIP and struck out 6 guys……..doesn’t make him Mariano Rivera, but it is at least somewhat encouraging.

IMO, he’s a better #6-#7 rotation filler option than any of the guys in AAA, including Matthews……….at least through May-June. I guess to me, instead of trading him to be some other Team’s insurance, Team keeps him for $7.5M. ……..I think it makes more sense than trading him for next to nothing and then signing Danny or similar for $5M.

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Put him in the pen, let him dominate there for half the season, then trade him at the deadline if the Pohlads really need to save that 3ish million and you'd actually get something in return for him.

Will he last half the season throwing max effort even if it's in smaller bursts? Will he actually be dominant? Is it worth it for a cash strapped team to sink $7M+ into the hope Paddack reaches levels of health and performance he hasn't come close to touching in the last 5 years? 

[Fatbat]

There are a few reasons that Paddack is not overpriced and he will not be traded. 
#1 he is another year removed from TJ surgery.

#2 he is young enough to still become an allstar talent pitcher. 

#3 The Pohlads will not be paying his salary so stop protecting their pocket book.

#4 The FO has probably been told not to make any MLB deals due to the pending team sale unless there is a gross overpay by a club wanting a  younger role player. 
 

As bad as Paddack was at times last season, he could be an allstar reliever in ‘25 based on how well his stuff plays up in short outings. He won’t be going anywhere.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Will he last half the season throwing max effort even if it's in smaller bursts? Will he actually be dominant? Is it worth it for a cash strapped team to sink $7M+ into the hope Paddack reaches levels of health and performance he hasn't come close to touching in the last 5 years? 

Is it worth it to trade him for nothing so the Pohlads can save $7M+ or the Twins can snag Manuel Margot again?

If trading him facilitates and actual improvement of the team, by all means trade him. I don't believe at all that that's the case, though. I think trading him leads, at best, to another 1-year vet platoon bat that won't be cut no matter how much they struggle or a washed-up reliever that wouldn't do any better than Paddack but will cost less so the Pohlads save a little money. I'd rather have Paddack. 7 mil doesn't buy you anything useful.

[Fatbat]

28 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Will he last half the season throwing max effort even if it's in smaller bursts? Will he actually be dominant? Is it worth it for a cash strapped team to sink $7M+ into the hope Paddack reaches levels of health and performance he hasn't come close to touching in the last 5 years? 

The team is not cash strapped and the Pohlads will be gone by May1. Paddack absolutely could have a Jax/Duran type season in the bullpen. 2WAR equates to twice his salary so he could become a huge bargain. 

[Jeff K]

22 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I so very much wish that were true, but count me in the club that says Castro will be the most difficult of the three trade candidates to replace. None of those guys has the proven defensive flexibility that Castro has and only Martin has hit (and barely, quality wise) in the majors. The other two are successful AAA guys without much pedigree.  The success rate for guys like that is pretty low.  Could they get lucky with one of them?  Sure but the odds are stacked against it.  Remember, even though Castro didn’t seem very impressive when the signing was made, he did finish fourth in the ROY balloting a few years earlier.   That’s a pedigree that the other three can only dream about.  

I know this is unpopular, but I also agree that Castro might make the most sense to trade.  I've stated before, the Twins abused Castro by playing him too often and in too many positions.  1st half Castro was excellent; 2nd half...not so much.  He likely has decent trade value that will probably reduce the payroll.  And if he is slated to play less positions, he is more easily replaced internally.  Yup, my reasoning is a bit circular, but my bottom line is I don't think the Twins will be hurt as much as most think by trading Castro.

[Linehan]

I think most people could agree history is the best indicator of future performance, and based on that Chris Paddack is worth very very little. If you can trade him and get some salary, relief that you can actually roll into a serviceable role player iby all means, do so. 

[Bodie]

6 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The team is not cash strapped and the Pohlads will be gone by May1. Paddack absolutely could have a Jax/Duran type season in the bullpen. 2WAR equates to twice his salary so he could become a huge bargain. 

Could he?  Anything is possible... almost.

 

But, which is more likely - your dream of him blossoming into an all-star level reliever (a job he has never done to even an acceptable level) or him pitching 50 to 75 largely ineffective innings before breaking down again

 

I know which I hope for.  I also know I'd bet the other way if forced to pick the more likely outcome. 

[D.C Twins]

"That answer is blessedly simple, too, though not exciting: it's zero."

BINGO!

[Fatbat]

14 hours ago, Bodie said:

Could he?  Anything is possible... almost.

 

But, which is more likely - your dream of him blossoming into an all-star level reliever (a job he has never done to even an acceptable level) or him pitching 50 to 75 largely ineffective innings before breaking down again

 

I know which I hope for.  I also know I'd bet the other way if forced to pick the more likely outcome. 

But he has never has a RP role for a full season. Other roles haven’t worked out so this is the next logical pathway.

[Devilsadvocate]

On 1/8/2025 at 2:53 AM, chpettit19 said:

70 maybe? He has good stuff. He's never healthy, though. Plenty of guys with worse stuff than him have gone and seen their stuff play up in the pen in short bursts. You never really know, but I'd say it's a better than 50/50 shot and I'd rather try that than just trade him away for nothing just to save the Pohlads a couple bucks.

If you can get an actual return for him it changes the equation. If clearing his money opens the door for a different trade or signing of a player with a better chance to improve the team (not a Margot type addition) I'd take that, but if it's a straight salary dump I'd rather see them take a chance at him in the pen where I think there's a solid chance he's really good.

I'm on the other side of the spectrum - I'd say there's a 30% chance he dominates. 

I usually love the typical "starter turned reliever project" when the stuff is good, but Paddack seems to give up lots of hits, regardless. 

Right there with you on everything else though, and hope you're right!

[tony&rodney]

The market for Chris Paddack is going to be tough and I do believe he may have fair value in the bullpen. Thing is, it will be sad to see him take starts away from David Festa.

So ...... I'm going to propose the Twins trade Paddack to San Diego for Dylan Cease.

The Twins will also need to include  Simeon Woods Richardson, Willi Castro, and $2 million of international bonus money or a player like Kala'i Rosario and/or Travis Adams. More? 

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The market for Chris Paddack is going to be tough and I do believe he may have fair value in the bullpen. Thing is, it will be sad to see him take starts away from David Festa.

So ...... I'm going to propose the Twins trade Paddack to San Diego for Dylan Cease.

The Twins will also need to include  Simeon Woods Richardson, Willi Castro, and $2 million of international bonus money or a player like Kala'i Rosario and/or Travis Adams. More? 

Thats too much to pay for Cease. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Thats too much to pay for Cease. 

My thinking is that the money is pretty much equal. SD gets their Profar substitute and two pitchers they could use plus a minor leaguer or two. The Twins get a good pitcher for one year. The gap can be filled by any of Matthews, Morris, or Raya in 2026. Cease pitches a ton of quality innings. All of Castro, Paddack, and Cease are free agents next offseason. 

Why is it too much?

[DJL44]

Oakland is looking to add another starting pitcher and they need to add payroll to avoid a grievance filed by the MLBPA. Miguel Andujar is a mediocre corner outfielder with a $3M pricetag. He hits lefties well and can also play 1B. Paddack for Andujar could work.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

My thinking is that the money is pretty much equal. SD gets their Profar substitute and two pitchers they could use plus a minor leaguer or two. The Twins get a good pitcher for one year. The gap can be filled by any of Matthews, Morris, or Raya in 2026. Cease pitches a ton of quality innings. All of Castro, Paddack, and Cease are free agents next offseason. 

Why is it too much?

Because you give up all that equity for a 1 yr rental. Thats a way over payment. Borders on stupidity. 

[Fatbat]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Oakland is looking to add another starting pitcher and they need to add payroll to avoid a grievance filed by the MLBPA. Miguel Andujar is a mediocre corner outfielder with a $3M pricetag. He hits lefties well and can also play 1B. Paddack for Andujar could work.

Why would we want to trade for a mediocre player to block the pathway for our rookie class?