Will the Twins Make Their First Rule 5 Draft Pick in Seven Years? Whom Could They Target? - Caretaker Exclusive

[Seth Stohs]

This weekend, executives from all big-league teams, minor-league teams, independent leagues, job hunters and fans will head to Dallas for the annual Winter Meetings. On Wednesday afternoon, the Rule 5 draft will be held. Could the Twins make a pick in the MLB phase?

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have not made a Rule 5 selection since the Dec. 2017 draft. Could this be the year that they choose to select a player again? And if so, who are a few names to know? Whom could the Twins consider taking? 

To make a pick in the Rule 5 draft, the team must have room on their 40-man roster. The Twins are currently at 38 players on their roster, so theoretically, they could make two picks in the MLB Rule 5 draft. They won’t, but it isn’t the worst thing to do. After the shortened 2020 season that included no minor-league season, the Twins lost Akil Baddoo to the Tigers and Tyler Wells to the Orioles. Wells was the Orioles' second pick of that Rule 5 draft. He made the team, pitched out of the bullpen that year, and has been a solid contributor in a variety of roles since then.

In addition, the team must pay $100,000 to the team from whom the player was selected. If the Twins’ payroll is going to be similar to 2024, they are going to need to rely on several league-minimum players. In the big picture, it’s a pretty inexpensive way to fill one of 26 roster spots with an intriguingly talented player. 

However, the team has to keep the player on their big-league roster for the entire season. He cannot be optioned. If the Twins were to make a pick and wanted to send the player down to the minors, they would have to put him on waivers and offer him back to the original team for $50,000. If those things happen, the original team could just let him stay with the Twins, but more likely, they would want to receive a player in a trade for the Twins to keep their player. 

Because the player needs to remain on the roster or be lost, players selected need to be able to contribute something to the big-league club from Day 1. That’s why a huge percentage of players selected are pitchers. On a roster that includes 13 pitchers, it is also easiest to hide a pitcher in the back of the bullpen and limit their usage to low-leverage situations unless (or until) the player earns more high-leverage opportunities.

The Twins took Tyler Kinley with their 2017 Rule 5 pick. He pitched in four games for them before being sent back to the Marlins. In 2016, they selected Miguel Diaz from the Brewers and traded him to the Padres for fellow Rule 5 pick Justin Haley. Haley pitched in 10 games for the Twins. Before the end of June, he was returned to the Red Sox. In 2014, they selected J.R. Graham. He spent the entire 2015 season with the Twins and pitched in 39 games. After one appearance in 2016, he was released. These are the typical Rule 5 draft picks, including relatively typical results. 

In 2012, the Twins selected Ryan Pressly from the Red Sox. He made the Opening Day roster and stuck around a long time. Pressly is a great example of a guy who needed an opportunity, got that opportunity, took advantage of it, and really thrived. He spent parts of six seasons with the Twins and was traded at the deadline in 2018 to the Astros. He’s become an All-Star, a World Series champion, and made a little bit of money as one of the best relievers in the game over the past seven or eight seasons.

Where the team is on a winning and spending cycle is also a factor. While the Twins ended the season terribly and fell from second to fourth place in the AL Central, this team does have the talent to compete with Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit, even without massive changes. They do not need to do a complete rebuild. So, they may not want to play with a 25-man roster, making it more important that if they do select someone, it’s someone who will be counted on for some role. On the other hand, their combination of existing commitments and ownership-imposed payroll constraints make it a good time to find such a fringe contributor on the cheap.

With all of that in mind, I think the Twins could make a Rule 5 pick this year. Before getting to my top five names to watch, though, let’s take a quick look at what positions the Twins could look for in the Rule 5. 

Catcher: The Twins have relied on Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez to remain on the field the last two years. Vázquez is certainly a trade candidate, but with Jair Camargo on the 40-man roster and Patrick Winkel in Triple-A, they don’t need a catcher. In fact, they left catcher Ricardo Olivar unprotected, and he is often mentioned as a player who could be selected by another team. 

Outfield: As of right now, the lineup would include Trevor Larnach in left, Byron Buxton in center, and Matt Wallner in right field. Willi Castro can play in left and center. Austin Martin can play both of those positions as well. Wallner and Larnach are pretty interchangeable in the outfield. Emmanuel Rodriguez is on the 40-man roster and reached Triple-A in 2024. 

Infield: As of right now, the lineup would likely include Royce Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien at second base. José Miranda can play both corner spots. Castro can play those three spots as well. 

The Keirsey/Helman Effect: DaShawn Keirsey provides all the skills that a team could look for in a Rule 5 pick. He can play three outfield positions well, including center field. He can run. He can steal bases. He has a strong, accurate arm. And, he has shown that he can hit in Triple-A the last couple of years. Michael Helman can play all three outfield positions and three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS), and has a lot of innings at each over his professional career. He can run. He can steal bases. He has a good arm. And, he has shown that he can hit in Triple-A the past few years, when healthy. 

If the team is looking to add a question mark (or lottery ticket) with that skill set, why not just go with the guy you know, the guy who has earned it? In addition, those two players can be optioned when the starters are healthy, unlike a Rule 5 pick. 

First Base: OK, now there could possibly be a fit at first base. Carlos Santana had a really nice 2024 season, but he is a free agent again this offseason. The Twins could bring him back, probably on a $5-6 million, one-year deal—but then again, can they? Even if they can free up that much money in the budget, will they be able to spend it on this particular need?

Alex Kirilloff’s retirement announcement last month was certainly surprising, at least until hearing the specifics of his back issues and the excruciating pain he must have. Yunior Severino was removed from the Twins 40-man roster after not getting called up at all in 2024. They brought him back on a minor-league deal, but clearly, they would want to go another direction. First base, however, is a position that needs to provide at least some offense, because there typically isn’t a lot of defensive flexibility. I’ll mention two first basemen that I wouldn’t mind the Twins selecting. 

Starting Pitching: Pablo Lopez is a near-ace. Bailey Ober has put himself in mid-rotation starter range, as has Joe Ryan, although he will be coming back from injury after missing the final eight weeks of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson had a nice rookie season, likely outperforming any of our expectations. David Festa and Zebby Matthews got their feet wet in the big leagues the last two months and showed they could be big-league starters. Brent Headrick missed much of last season but has a starter’s pitch mix and length, and he’s left-handed. Recently, the Twins added starters Marco Raya and Travis Adams to their 40-man roster. Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper and several other pitchers could develop and reach the big leagues as starters. In addition, it’s possible that Griffin Jax could be moved to the rotation. I don't see a need to add another arm to this mix, at least one that will have no track record and no roster flexibility.

Bullpen: The Twins' bullpen is pretty well set going into the offseason, at least in terms of players with contracts. Jhoan Durán and Jax were offered arbitration. Brock Stewart, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin reached agreements with the Twins. Jorge Alcalá’s 2025 option was picked up by the Twins. In addition, Cole Sands took a huge step forward, and I’m a big believer in Ronny Henriquez. In my mind, Louie Varland moving to the bullpen could be a huge positive for the Twins. They also have re-signed Scott Blewett on a minor-league deal, and Jovani Morán should be able to return from Tommy John surgery at some point during the season. Any of the starters could help out in the bullpen if needed. However, the Twins currently have just Kody Funderburk and Headrick as left-handed pitchers. 

Pitching: Starter or Reliever, if the Twins and their professional scouting department believe that an available pitcher has a chance to be an MLB regular, a long reliever, or potentially a late-game reliever, I would have no problem with them adding a pitcher. I’ve got a handful that fit some of the characteristics I would look for, and I’ll share them with you, as well.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It's difficult to see a spot in the bullpen truly available to another player who wouldn't be able to be optioned, but Magdaleno is someone that seems interesting. 

Curious if they do take someone. Thanks for the writeup :)

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

As a non-caretaker I'm responding in ignorance of the meat of this article - but there is a rundown of Rule 5 candidates at the MLB site that could be interesting to cross-reference here.

It seems like logical places for the Twins to focus are roles where their depth is limited - catcher and left-handed relief pitching. Right-handed corner OF or 1B could fit that criterion too, but it's a little harder to imagine a good enough hitter to have a MLB-level impact at those positions being available in the Rule 5.

There are 3 LH relievers on that list and they all seem worth a look. The comment above mentions Bryan Magdaleno, who is also on MLB's list and, at first look, seems the most intriguing of those 3 guys.

And the one catcher, Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres, is intriguing too - switch-hitter, good reviews for his defense, not a great hitter overall but posted some good OBPs in the low minors. Maybe he's a stretch for the major-league portion of the Rule 5, but he could make sense for the Twins if they were confident they would trade Vázquez.

(Side note: the Padres prospect list, where Valenzuela ranks 12th, has some eye-catching names. Cobb Hightower? Kale Fountain?! The mind reels.)

[High heat]

I could see the Twins looking at Bob Seymour 1B from the Rays.  Has similar profile to Matt Wallner and similar # at AAA.  Big Lefty with massive exit velo numbers.  A lot of swing and miss to his game like Wallner, but if can make enough load contact.

[FlyingFinn]

Highly likely that the Twins don't take anyone. The couple guys the Twins may want will go before it gets to the Twins turn to pick.

[PDX Twin]

Quote

Whom Could They Target?

I love it when writers use proper grammar!

[IndianaTwin]

It seems like they could simplify their review of candidates if they choose "Left handed" and "Relief Pitcher" in the drop-down boxes.

With a four-player bench and their current roster, it's difficult to imagine choosing any position player that they would want to promise a spot to. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

As a non-caretaker I'm responding in ignorance of the meat of this article - but there is a rundown of Rule 5 candidates at the MLB site that could be interesting to cross-reference here.

It seems like logical places for the Twins to focus are roles where their depth is limited - catcher and left-handed relief pitching. Right-handed corner OF or 1B could fit that criterion too, but it's a little harder to imagine a good enough hitter to have a MLB-level impact at those positions being available in the Rule 5.

There are 3 LH relievers on that list and they all seem worth a look. The comment above mentions Bryan Magdaleno, who is also on MLB's list and, at first look, seems the most intriguing of those 3 guys.

And the one catcher, Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres, is intriguing too - switch-hitter, good reviews for his defense, not a great hitter overall but posted some good OBPs in the low minors. Maybe he's a stretch for the major-league portion of the Rule 5, but he could make sense for the Twins if they were confident they would trade Vázquez.

(Side note: the Padres prospect list, where Valenzuela ranks 12th, has some eye-catching names. Cobb Hightower? Kale Fountain?! The mind reels.)

The Athletic list came out also. The most intriguing name to me is the lefty Webb from Cleveland who is on both. He was a minor league starter. It seems like minor league starters are more successful transitioning to relievers in the majors than minor league relievers. If he can tick up his low 90s velocity in relief they may have a steal. That would be particularly satisfying coming from the Guardians.

[TopGunn#22]

Interesting names, especially the LHP Webb from the Guardians system that jorgenswest just mentioned.  It's not often that a Johan Santana or Shane Mack are available in the Rule 5.

Did anyone notice if Crash Davis was on the list?  I understand he's a switch hitting catcher with power, who is a good handler of pitching staffs.  He's also a fan of long, wet kisses, which would probably help him fit in the clubhouse well.  

[stringer bell]

A comparatively weak-hitting catcher with a plus defensive profile might work, with Vázquez then being traded. I don't know if there are any unprotected catchers that meet the criteria. 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

And the one catcher, Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres, is intriguing too - switch-hitter, good reviews for his defense, not a great hitter overall but posted some good OBPs in the low minors. Maybe he's a stretch for the major-league portion of the Rule 5, but he could make sense for the Twins if they were confident they would trade Vázquez.

If they want Valenzuela they should trade someone for him and put him on the 40 man roster so they can option him.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Highly likely that the Twins don't take anyone. The couple guys the Twins may want will go before it gets to the Twins turn to pick.

I agree. Last year 10 players were chosen and the Twins pick 12th. This year should be even less talent available because the 2020 draft was only 5 rounds.

[Doctor Gast]

20 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

As a non-caretaker I'm responding in ignorance of the meat of this article - but there is a rundown of Rule 5 candidates at the MLB site that could be interesting to cross-reference here.

It seems like logical places for the Twins to focus are roles where their depth is limited - catcher and left-handed relief pitching. Right-handed corner OF or 1B could fit that criterion too, but it's a little harder to imagine a good enough hitter to have a MLB-level impact at those positions being available in the Rule 5.

There are 3 LH relievers on that list and they all seem worth a look. The comment above mentions Bryan Magdaleno, who is also on MLB's list and, at first look, seems the most intriguing of those 3 guys.

And the one catcher, Brandon Valenzuela from the Padres, is intriguing too - switch-hitter, good reviews for his defense, not a great hitter overall but posted some good OBPs in the low minors. Maybe he's a stretch for the major-league portion of the Rule 5, but he could make sense for the Twins if they were confident they would trade Vázquez.

(Side note: the Padres prospect list, where Valenzuela ranks 12th, has some eye-catching names. Cobb Hightower? Kale Fountain?! The mind reels.)

It'd make more sense if they were trading Jeffers. I'll echo what DJL said. It'd make more sense to trade for Venezuela, put him on the 40 man & option him to AAA where can season a bit more. He has potential.

LHP- (TX) Magdaleno & (CLE) Webb look tempting if they come available to us.

[Twinsoholic]

In 1980 the Twins used the Rule 5 draft to select reliever Doug Corbett from Cincinnati. He saved 23 games for the Twins that season. The next season he made the All-Star team. The third season, 1982, the Twins traded Corbett and Rob Wilfong to the Angels for Tom Brunansky, Mike Walters, and cash. The Twins won that trade. 

[JD-TWINS]

Tough to see any position guys fitting the 26-man no matter what the upside. Can’t be a short, low average first baseman or some Catcher that needs to be developed - can’t roster a non-contributor or weak link IF trying to contend. The PEN seems filled at this point - a Rule 5 guy would just displace Tonkin or somehow delay using Varland in the Pen.

I know the occasional success story makes this option intriguing. To me, the Rule 5 fits a Team that isn’t expecting to be in the playoff mix & they can absorb some weak short-term performances with the future in mind.

[Fred]

19 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I love it when writers use proper grammar!

I'm watching "fewer" nearly disappearing from the language. It would be a great injustice if it disappeared before "whom". 😄

[Fatbat]

There are probably too many warts to pick any one of the available draftees when it comes to us picking.  It would be nice to get another left pitcher tho. 

[saviking]

Thanks for such a detailed and well-written article. Now I feel up to speed.

Wes Clarke makes a lot of sense. I love his power profile. Crim is interesting but can't get past the fact he is only five-ten. 

There are a couple of intriguing pitchers for our bullpen, even if they are starters. That doesn't mean they can't compete for a starter's role down the line, but we do not need another starter at this time. Boy, do we need a power-hitting first baseman 

 

 

[gman]

Magdaleno might be worth picking. Try him out in the spring and see if he is worth making a trade for. Maybe we could find someone to teach him a change-up.

[darin617]

Was this written by AI?  The headline says who could they target without including any possible targets.

[Twins33]

On 12/8/2024 at 9:23 PM, darin617 said:

Was this written by AI?  The headline says who could they target without including any possible targets.

It’s a caretaker exclusive article. If you want the full article you have to subscribe (pay for it)

[darin617]

26 minutes ago, Twins33 said:

It’s a caretaker exclusive article. If you want the full article you have to subscribe (pay for it)

That's not going to happen. It would be different if they had inside information, but if they did they wouldn't get anything leaked anymore if they posted it.