Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #4 - Charlee Soto, RHP

[Eric Blonigen]

Welcome to the next installment of the 2024-2025 Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects countdown. Today, we'll highlight Charlee Soto, a prep pitcher with tremendous upside and a lot to work on.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Similar to the incredibly strong 2022 draft, the Twins landed a bevy of high-upside guys. Taking Walker Jenkins fifth overall and Luke Keaschall in the second round, the Twins drafted Charlee Soto 34th overall and signed him for a full-slot $2.48 million bonus. At the time, Soto had not yet turned 18. Perfect Game said of him: “Outgrew shortstop, now a full-time RHP, works in the mid-90’s, top 98, with a plus change up and improving slider, very projectable, fresh arm.”

At the time, he was ranked as having the second-best stuff of any prep pitcher. He spoke to being influenced by both Gerrit Cole and Roy Halladay. He debuted in 2024 with Low-A Fort Myers and had a positive season.

What’s to like?
At 6’5”, Soto has a starter’s frame. He’s got great stuff, with three pitches that are average or better. His fastball approaches triple digits, his slider sits in the upper 90s, and his circle change approaches 90. His FIP is similar against both lefties and righties. He’s a ground ball pitcher. And, he has added a cutter and a sinker, giving him a full five-pitch mix. His heater gets about 18 inches of carry. He uses both his four-seamer and his changeup as out pitches.

How was his 2024 season?
In short, Soto learned that professional baseball is more challenging than facing high school hitters. Across 21 games (20 starts), he went 1-7 with a 5.23 ERA which was inflated by a .365 BABIP and an unlucky 11.5% home run / fly ball rate. His FIP was much better, at 3.88 on the season, and he struck out 87 in 74 innings which is quite strong for a starting pitcher. At the same time, he walked way too many - 4.01 per nine innings. Soto struggled with consistency, and his splits by month are kind of wild. April was good, with Soto giving up just three runs over four starts.

Then, in his nine starts in May and June, he pitched to an 8.77 ERA and went less than three innings per start. In the second half, he was again strong, going almost five innings per start with a 3.15 FIP. In July, he picked up Minor League Pitcher of the Month honors.

For an 18-year-old, a lack of consistency is almost expected. Overall, his expected numbers were strong despite being 3.9 years younger than average for the level. He accomplished what he needed to, and demonstrated legit prospect bona fides.

What does Soto need to work on as he enters his age-19 season?
In short, command and control are the biggest opportunity. Fangraphs has his command rated at 20 on the 20-80 scale. That was borne out with his 10% walk rate in 2024. In particular, Soto will want to work on locating his fastball as he gave up over seven walks per nine innings on that pitch.

He may want to work on his setup and release mechanics. Averaging just 5’8” of extension on his release, his velocity actually plays down a bit. Since he has plus velocity currently, extension is not an issue for him yet. But, as he ages, it will become more important. If the Twins are able to help him improve his extension now, he should see better results throughout his career.

He also needs to work on repeatability with both his slider and his cutter, as the characteristics of them were a bit all over the place. While the slider was still effective, the cutter was less so, yielding a 5.18 FIP.

Realistically, even small improvements in these things could help Soto mature into a legit frontline starting pitching prospect.

What’s next for him?
It seems likely that Soto will play most of the 2025 season at High-A Cedar Rapids. Given his age, I wouldn’t be surprised if he started the season back in Fort Myers for a month or so to build confidence. One can hope that the Twins pitching development team can work their magic over the next couple seasons. If so, fans may see him at Target Field in 2027 or 2028 - hopefully at the front of the rotation.

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[Trov]

Clearly his hype is on his possible stuff.  Not much in his early numbers say he is a top guy. That is the thing with high school guys is it is all what they could grow into.  Some become amazing, many fade away when they start facing the top guys and not just dominating a bunch of kids that will not even play in college. 

I hope he develops and can start commanding his pitches as he clearly has some swing and miss stuff, but it could also be since even he has no clue where the pitch is going the hitters have no clue and start swinging at anything. 

[DJL44]

High risk, high reward. They've had some bad success rates on their prep arms (Enlow, Balazovic, Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart) but everyone has bad success rates on prep arms.

[mikelink45]

TOO SOON, TOO HIGH.  I like to see players earn their ranking, not get wish credits for what we think is potential.  He is not top ten for me yet.

[Mike Sixel]

Given the failure rate of HS pitchers, this is way too high for me. I'm ok with the risk taken, but I'm not rating him high until there's production. 

[bean5302]

Soto is going to need a lot of work. While the article talks about a true 5 pitch mix, I'm not seeing it in the movement. Movement based classification is possibly labeling Soto's poorly thrown sliders as "cutters."

Lots and lots of hype for Soto, who throws 95, and doesn't flirt with triple digits at all. Like saying Soto peaked at 98, close to striking range of Jhoan Duran's 105mph peak in 2023!!! I'm not sure all the hype helps readers understand Soto's real projectability much.

Right now, he's completely raw, and that's fine. He was a shortstop who transitioned to being a pitcher in high school so that is truly expected. He's got the velocity to be successful already, and he's working on expanding his offerings and getting his mechanics in order. The Twins are clearly intent on maximizing his potential rather than using the tried and true polishing method so that at least says something about what they think they have.

In regard to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate, those metrics are often worthless in the low minors. Bad stuff gets walloped, and batted ball data is of poor quality/reliability. "Bad luck" is actually a red flag indicator for "bad stuff" down at the low levels. Pitchers who don't have good stuff never make it to the MLB level so having results be stable alongside MLB averages is mostly expected. 

I think it's fine to have Soto at #4. The Twins' system is hyper thin, IMHO. A few really high end prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall) and then a bunch of mid level guys who are largely interchangeable with each other due to low ceilings or high injury or positional change risk.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow! He just seems like he is a million miles away at this point.  Obviously the Twins like his stuff and projectability, but he has so much to work on before he can pitch for the big club -- actually he has plenty to work on before he gets to AA!  For me, a guy like this can't be in the top five, there's just too much variability in the possible outcomes. 

[Blyleven2011]

One can only hope for a guy that has promise  , still along way to go in development  ...

I liked the high risk pick when drafted  ... 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

TOO SOON, TOO HIGH.  I like to see players earn their ranking, not get wish credits for what we think is potential.  He is not top ten for me yet.

I would rank them Morris, Raya, Soto, Hill but they'd all be in my top 10. I would trade Cory Lewis (for example) to get another Soto or Hill.

[Dman]

He has fastball issues but his changeup looks elite already. If he gets the slider going I think he can be something special.  The cool thing is the Twins have a nice group of arms 20 and under with Carpenter, Bohorquez, Soto, Hill and the 17 year old Roque. That's 5 young arms to pair with whatever College arms the Twins find.  

I'm a Soto believer.  They let him pitch 70 innings as an 18 year old and he held his own at A ball.  The future looks bright IMO.

[jmlease1]

I liked the pick at the time and haven't changed my mind on it, but there's still all the usual risks associated with a high school pitcher. He's got plenty to work on but has absolutely flashed the talent that made him a high draft pick. I wouldn't have him quite this high (it's almost all projection right now, so to me he's more like a top ten guy rather than top 5) but I get the excitement and interest around his ability.

He needs innings and reps IMHO. Hopefully he stays healthy and can throw 90-100 innings and improve his command. I think he'll start back in Ft. Myers, but will move up to Cedar Rapids by midseason at the latest. I'll be curious to see how he does against LH hitter this year; he got bashed around by them pretty good in 2024, so figuring out which offerings can help him against lefties will be part of his development process this season, I think.

Should be an interesting year for Soto. He passed the "lemon test" I'd say; this season will tell us more about what his path looks like as a prospect.

[Fezig]

I'm sure the Twins system can turn him from a great starting prospect to a serviceable reliever in no time!

[Fatbat]

I’d bet on this kid putting it together and refining his skills.  He is a class act that wont fade away like others. 

[Otaknam]

Positives: Big frame, upper 90s fastball, almost four years younger than the competition, front of the rotation potential. Negatives: lack of command, though 4 walks per 9 innings isnt exactly Steve Blass. And lack of experience. Hopefully his arm hold together and he avoids TJ. 

[JD-TWINS]

Ceiling seems to be driving the ranking!

He was an 18 year old Low A pitcher, so #4 seems like a stretch unless he was dominant. He wasn’t. Prospects are all guesses until they perform in the Show…….i.e. Brooks Lee.

Let’s give him to July of ‘26 to see how he’s doing ……. he’ll be 20. Certainly no reason to hate on him nor doubt his potential. Quite a few guys have command issues at 18…..walks not a big deal.

[Doctor Wu]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ceiling seems to be driving the ranking!

I think that's fair. You gotta take these rankings with a grain (or a big chunk) of salt. I like Soto's potential as much as anyone and hope the Twins don't rush him. As suggested in the article, starting him back at Ft. Myers to start the season makes the most sense. If his command and production improve then you can move him up to the next level. 

[Senior Softball Guy]

A tad high ranking, but it will be interesting climb. I hope to see him in Cedar Rapids next season. Patience is the watch word (remember Luis Gil).

[tony&rodney]

Everything I read or video I watch creates a couple of thoughts for me. 1. I'm excited to watch him this coming season. 2. Do any other teams see high value in his future, similar to Chase Petty? Soto is a potential piece of the organization worth trading if a return is reasonable.

[twinstalker]

So the top three are Jenkins, Keaschall, EmRod, Zebby, and Eeles?

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, twinstalker said:

So the top three are Jenkins, Keaschall, EmRod, Zebby, and Eeles?

Zebby exceeded rookie thresholds in 2024 (>45 days on the active roster).

Eeles was listed at #22. Perhaps you missed the first article in the series.