Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #7 Brandon Winokur, SS/CF

[Matt Braun]

One of the best pure athletes in the Minnesota Twins system comes in seventh in our offseason prospect ranking.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Handed an overslot $1.5 million in the third round of the 2023 draft, the 6-foot-6 Brandon Winokur allowed the Twins to lure him away from UCLA. He made his pro debut in the Florida Complex League. Built like a svelte Ben Roethlisberger, Winokur represents something of a departure from Minnesota’s typical modus operandi regarding drafted position players. The Brooks Lees of the world—those more nimble and agile—have little in common with Winokur, who often makes his professional teammates look like Little Leaguers and brings a Matt Wallner-like presence in the batter’s box.

Don’t think his size slows him down; Winokur can haul ass with the best of them, running the bases with uncommon grace for a human tree. That’s perhaps unsurprising, given that he modeled his game after Mike Trout.

As you may predict, his rawness and size have so far resulted in an elevated strikeout risk, which is always a concern for a player his size. “While he’s shown all-fields power in Fort Myers and has even flashed an ability to square up fastballs around his hands (a rarity for such a long-levered hitter),” writes Eric Longenhagen, “Winokur is struggling to recognize spin and has a 17% swinging strike rate as of list publication (Jun. 25, 2024).” Just three qualified hitters—Ezequiel Tovar, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Zack Gelof—topped that mark in MLB in 2024. That’s not a collection of certified killers, although, players like Teoscar Hernández, Brent Rooker, and Nick Castellanos have proven that a high whiff rate can play. 

That’s the calling card for Winokur: power. Show me another 19-year-old who can hit a ball 440+ feet. They’re a rare breed. He possesses the kind of tantalizing power potential that can turn games on their head—and turn people’s heads, as they watch a blast sail deep into the night. 

The Twins have taken an extremely open-minded approach to Winokur’s defensive development. He’s played the most at two of the most critical positions, shortstop and center field. We’re now solidly in the post-Ripken era of shortstop thinking, so having a big man manning that position is far from unusual, but even so, Winokur, at 19, has two inches and 10 pounds on the Hall of Famer. He’s built more like Elly De La Cruz, and he still has time to grow.

“The Twins have been pleasantly surprised with how well he’s moved on the dirt, and they aren’t ruling out that he plays shortstop for longer than anyone anticipated,” says his writeup on MLB.com. Still, it seems inevitable that he’ll become a third baseman, corner outfielder, and occasional center fielder in the mold of Joey Gallo, where he should be perfectly adroit. It never hurts to let him cut his teeth at such a crucial position, though, and Minnesota has a few years before they need to decide his home, anyway. 

For all the hoopla surrounding Winokur’s talent and boom-or-bust profile, his numbers for the Mighty Mussels were simply pretty good—barely dramatic in shape. He slashed .249/.327/.434 across 411 plate appearances, good for a 116 wRC+ in the damp Florida State League. Perhaps most exciting is that he wasn’t your traditional stationary slugger: Winokur swiped 23 bases while only being caught six times (that’s a 79% success rate for those not blessed with Bert Blyleven’s California math). The strikeouts were a touch high—he struck out 28% of the time—but that isn’t an unthinkable rate; 12 qualified FSL hitters whiffed more often. Heck, the aforementioned Wallner almost struck out as often as a 21-year-old there just five years ago. 

To put it plainly, there aren’t many players in the Twins system with a higher ceiling than Winokur. If everything comes together—if he goes supernova and reaches that tantalizing potential—he could be a force Target Field simply has yet to see. Speed, power, and defense at a key position is a hell of a combination. There’s no guarantee we see that future, but it remains solidly in the cards, and that’s why Winokur comes in as our 7th-ranked prospect heading into 2025. 

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[Fatbat]

So young but so special.  At age 22, everyone in baseball will be talking about the phenom. MLB ROY 2027. 

[Old Crow]

39 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

So young but so special.  At age 22, everyone in baseball will be talking about the phenom. MLB ROY 2027. 

One can always hope.

[Guest]

"Wallner almost struck out as often" is not a phrase that inspires confidence.  Inability to recognize spin will be an increasing issue as Winokur goes up the ladder.  

[Trov]

6 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

"Wallner almost struck out as often" is not a phrase that inspires confidence.  Inability to recognize spin will be an increasing issue as Winokur goes up the ladder.  

Yes, he will need to really work on that.  If he does not he will not be a viable player at MLB level when pitchers just get that much better with their off speed stuff. 

[Blyleven2011]

He was a good selection in the draft out of high school  , 2022 and 2023 we had a great draft , 2023 might have been better...

Winokur is young , developing his talent properly is the most important thing  ...

Find him a position to play and make him comfortable  ....

[DJL44]

This seems quite high for Winokur. He ranks 31 for Fangraphs and 16 for MLB.com. He is a toolbox but lots of questions about whether his bat will keep up as he moves up levels and also whether the Twins will be able to put him at a defensive position where he will find success.

Travis Adams and Adrian Bohorquez should have made the top 30.

[jmlease1]

He's a fascinating prospect. The ceiling is very high for him, but he's also got bust potential if he can't improve his spin recognition and he's certainly got some real development work to do. I suspect the big challenges for him will be at AA and higher when he starts facing more advanced pitching, but he's off to an intriguing start and did just fine for 19 at Ft. Myers.

The combination of power and speed is a lot of fun. I tend to think he's going to end up in the OF rather than stand on the dirt, but he looks like he could be a legit CF and with his length it'd be awfully fun to see him stealing homers at the wall.

I like this kind of pick from time to time. While you don't want to fill your system with too many boom or bust picks, it's also good to stretch from time to time and take a risk on a high ceiling player like this. I feel like the overall draft strategy of the franchise is in a pretty good place: they're looking for inefficiencies, they're generally drafting for talent over need (but without totally ignoring need). they're not afraid to take some risks, and they don't seem to be dogmatic. (for example, while they've been drafting a lot of college pitchers, they haven't been afraid to take a high school pitcher that they like. Same with the hitters. They'll take a swing at a guy like Winokur in the 3rd round, but they're not doing it in every round.)

This will be an interesting season for Winokur. He's had a full season of pro baseball. He's had some success, but also had some challenges. he's had to deal with picking up a knock or two. There's loads of talent, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he applies it. I'm guessing he starts back in Ft. Myers with a midseason promotion to Cedar Rapids, but I wouldn't be shocked if he went to A+ from the jump.

[LambchoP]

Sounds like a guy with real potential. Hopefully we can somehow keep him healthy so he doesn't miss major development time with injuries. He could be the RH bat that we need in a few years.

[PDX Twin]

Quote

a third baseman, corner outfielder, and occasional center fielder in the mold of Joey Gallo, where he should be perfectly adroit.

Finding "Joey Gallo" and "adroit" in a sentence that wasn't talking about ability to strike out was jolting.

[tony&rodney]

Enjoyed watching his plate appearances last summer. There is talent there. The size creates a few challenges but the next two years should answer the questions. Winokur is a player worth tuning in to watch whenever his teams play. In my opinion, there was sufficient progress last summer and the comparison to Elly isn't as wild as it first seems. For those who have only read about Winokur, you can catch his games via milb.com. It is well worth it. I thought Winokur was among the top five position players worth watching last summer. The players I most often sought out were: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Carson McCusker, Luke Keaschall, and Brandon Winokur.

[Mike Sixel]

Sometimes rolling the dice works. It's a good risk, and we'll see what happens. 

[bean5302]

Comparisons to other players like Wallner are difficult. Wallner was drafted in 2019 and started off faster than Winokur before the shutdown season of 2020. That said, Wallner's plate discipline was not projectable to a potential MLB roster spot after the 2021 season in A+, and the Twins made sure Wallner knew it. A major shift in plate discipline needed to take place for 2025's likely starting RF needed to take place, and Wallner made that enormous shift in 2022 to revitalize his prospect potential.

Winokur needs to make a similar change sooner than later if he wants to remain a legitimate prospect. Some good news is that Winokur finished the season (8/1+) stronger than he started it, just like you'd hope.
.264/.319/.527 OPS .847 wRC+ 136, 7.6% BB, 26.9% K, .310 BABIP

I don't consider the Twins' system to be very deep right now so Winokur at #7 vs 15 is pretty irrelevant. He's a long shot until his plate discipline improves. The swinging strike rate and pop-up rates being what they are in A-Ball is very concerning.

Winokur should start next season in Cedar Rapids, and it's likely a feast or famine in terms of prospect rank based on what he can do there.

[HerbieFan]

I think the word I'm looking for is "tantalizing"

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Actually,  his hit tool is better than anticipated.  The fact he was able to more than hold his own at A ball as a 19 year old is pretty impressive.  June was his best month by far then got injured.  He came back struggled,  then had a pretty good August,  Sept was just 5 games,  so even though poor numbers extremely small sample size.   He was 2 years younger than the average player.   

Yes to remain this high on the rankings list,  his hit tool will have to continue to improve,  but with his speed and power and defense,  He is almost the full package.  That you got him in the same draft as Jenkins is absurd.     That 2023 draft I have said has the potential to be an absolutely game changer draft for this organization.  We can be upset what is occurring at the big league level right now,  but there is some major reasons to still be optimistic about the future,  and Winokur is a major part of the reason for that optimism. 

I expect a jump to high A and actually better performance than this year, as he adjusts to being a professional and continues to receive more instruction,  and continue to develop into his massive frame.  Assuming this occurs he will easily be a top 5 prospect by the end of the year.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 11/19/2024 at 11:24 AM, bean5302 said:

I don't consider the Twins' system to be very deep right now so Winokur at #7 vs 15 is pretty irrelevant. He's a long shot until his plate discipline improves. The swinging strike rate and pop-up rates being what they are in A-Ball is very concerning.
 

This may be the deepest we have been this century.  Yes the top end is depleted compared to last year, but the depth is absolutely absurd.  If we had any bullpen in the lower levels,  you could have all 4 levels in the minors competing at the top of their leagues because of the depth.   In your 30 to 50 prospect rankings, you will have the majority of the 2023, and 2024 pitching prosects,  if which I am fairly confident you will have 2-3 major leaguers based on historical averages with 1 high end pitcher.  For example Tanner Hall had a rough year,  maybe be around 45-50,  if the control comes back (which he had for 4 years in college), with a little more velocity he is #2 type pitcher in the big leagues.  I understand why he is so low, but even still,  you have potential,  and in a lot of cases its been the 2nd year where prospects have really taken off in the system.   You will also have hitters that have a shot at the MLB McCusker, Rodriguez, Keirsey, Acuna.   

[DocBauer]

The FSL is notoriously rough on hitting and offense in general. Winokur had a .761 OPS as a 19 yo! And he finished stronger than he started. Tremendous power, above average speed, and athleticism that should allow him to be a good defensive player at several positions, though I doubt SS is one of them.

Yes, he's rough around the edges and has to work on recognition and eliminate K's. Pretty sure that's common for for 19 you kids in pro ball. "Tantalizing" is definitely the right word. He's one of my favorite prospects because oh my, what he could be. 

Prospect rankings are about talent and potential. So being in the top 10 is appropriate. 

[TopGunn#22]

This kid's size, athleticism and power has always intrigued me.  And while I'm very impressed that at 6:6 we played him at SS and CF most of the time, I think this season he should move around a little bit.  I'd like to see him play all three OF positions and maybe 3B/1B in the infield.  He just isn't going to be a SS or middle infielder.  Why not get him comfortable at a position he will eventually end up at.

And I would spend extra time working with him on pitch spin recognition.  He's bright and physically gifted.  He will start improving.  It's only a matter of how rapidly or slowly he shows that improvement.  I'm glad he's up to #7 for a ranking because that insures us that we will get regular reports how he's doing on TD.

Yes!  That 2023 draft could end up being one of the Twins best in the franchise's history.  

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The FSL is notoriously rough on hitting and offense in general. Winokur had a .761 OPS as a 19 yo! And he finished stronger than he started.

League average was a 680 OPS. Winokur was 21st in OPS among batters with 128 plate appearances. Rayne Doncon was 8th with an .838 OPS. Detroit prospects Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle were standouts among the 19 year olds.

[twinstalker]

What in the world?