Searching for Five Guys

[Riverbrian]

I know where Five Guys is located in Grand Forks. In a strip mall by Kohl's near Target on the south end of town. Tasty Burger but kind of pricey so I don't go that often but I know where it is if I need Five Guys. 

The Twins need Five Guys... Do they know where to find Five Guys... Can they Afford Five Guys? 

They need Five Guys for the rotation. They need Five Guys for the 40 man with it currently sitting at 35. 

But... those will not be my focus. It is important for all of us to understand that the Twins will need Five Guys who will play most days by not being subject to platoon. 

Last Year... Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro and Santana were the Five Guys. Buxton, Correa and Lewis are often injured. They ranked 7th, 8th and 10th on the team in Plate Appearances. 

Where are these Five Guys currently located for the Twins. These Five guys should be the players who carry your team. They are the everyday Five Guys.

Is Castro talented enough to be one of the five everyday guys? Is Miranda the fifth of the Five Guys? Is it Lee? Will Lee even break camp with the club out of spring training?  

We know that Wallner, Larnach or Julien are not eligible for one of the Five Guy spots due to severe platooning restrictions. And we know it's not the three right handed bats that they will roster to platoon with Wallner, Larnach or Julien. Those spots will go to the Margot and Farmer replacements that the Twins are obligated to sign to keep the platoon integrity intact. 

Can the Twins find Five Guys who can be every day leaders? Can they afford the expensive burger?

If there is one thing that scares me this offseason. It's those Five Guys. 3 players that could carry you but are often injured and an over relied upon Castro and you are still one short. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Reptevia]

Last year, Santana was the ONLY guy. Halftime players don’t qualify, and utility guys, while necessary and vital, are a need in addition to the 5 guys. Remember when you could name every Twin at every position?  I can’t, due to platoons or injuries name ONE position that has one of the “five guys”. With Santana probably gone, it starts with ONE guy!

[Riverbrian]

39 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Last year, Santana was the ONLY guy. Halftime players don’t qualify, and utility guys, while necessary and vital, are a need in addition to the 5 guys. Remember when you could name every Twin at every position?  I can’t, due to platoons or injuries name ONE position that has one of the “five guys”. With Santana probably gone, it starts with ONE guy!

Willi Castro was super utility last year. Super Utility is a utility guy who plays every day.

Willi led the team in PA's with 635 of them. That is a problem in my opinion. I don't have a problem with Castro being on the roster but when we turn him into the most valuable player on the team he becomes a problem. 

It speaks volumes that Castro and Santana were the only two Twins who had enough AB's to qualify for a batting title.

Those 635 PA's for Castro was tied for 51st in all of baseball. Tied with Nolen Arenado and Yordan Alvarez. 

Of those 54 players in the top 51 in plate appearances. Only 6 had a lower OPS than Castro in 2025. 

The Twins haven't been healthy at the top end for year after year after year. No reason to expect anything different this year. The 4th and 5th spot with in the Five Guy group needs to be addressed because of hte injury history of spots 1, 2 and 3. 

I'm doubtful that Castro is good enough for the role.  

 

[stringer bell]

Is vs it possible that a platoon lefty hitter could be “promoted” to one of the five guys? If not a full-fledged regular, at least not pinch hit for in the middle innings (á la Kepler).

I’m thinking of Wallner or perhaps later Rodriguez or Jenkins. It would help if the player vying for this status was a plus defender. 
 

Midsummer (‘22 and ‘24) Miranda might qualify despite his less-than-great glovework because of the way he hit during those relatively short intervals and because he pounded right handed pitching.

I agree that Castro shouldn’t be one of the five guys, but as a sixth, starting closer to 100 games (about what he did in ‘23), he could be a big positive. 

[The Great Hambino]

This Five Guys strategy works great ... in a world of perfect health.  The Twins do not live in this world.  

Setting aside a pair of catchers, you have 11 position players for 8 spots.  If you're devoting three of those spots to platoons (let's call them the Six Platooners), then you sure don't have much margin for injuries.  If one of the Five Guys goes down, it's safe to assume whomever is getting the call from St Paul won't be trusted to fill their Five Guy role, so one of the Six Platooners (or the other catcher, which opens its own can of worms) have to be able to fulfill it.  Roster limits require it.  So it's bad news if none of the Six Platooners can handle a Five Guys role.  Painting yourself into this corner is how you end up with a short bench, suboptimal bench options, and a team pinch-hitting OPS of .541.  Not an ideal result for a team that pinch-hits like it's going out of style.

In a sense, the Five Guys position player slots (great name btw Riverbrian) have something else in common with a starting rotation beyond the number of slots: you need at least 7 you trust in the role to really be secure.  If you have seven "Five Guys", now you have some roster flexibility in the inevitable event a top hitter has to go on the shelf. 

So, whomever they have earmarked for a Six Platooners role in Plan A (no injuries) they need to:

a]identify who they most trust to fill a Five Guys role, and 

b]GIVE THEM A CHANCE TO FACE SAME-SIDED PITCHING so they can be prepared when they need to step up into a more prominent role

[jctwins]

There has to be a trickle down effect from the pending ownership transition. How bad would it be to have Falvey "save money" by committing to fill every hole with guys from the system. It uses what will likely be a lost year anyway and you either develop guys or see what you don't have. It also expedites the process of cleaning house that new ownership might want to employ anyway.

 

[stringer bell]

Castro and Lee are almost automatically Five Guys candidates because of being switch hitters. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Is vs it possible that a platoon lefty hitter could be “promoted” to one of the five guys? If not a full-fledged regular, at least not pinch hit for in the middle innings (á la Kepler).

I’m thinking of Wallner or perhaps later Rodriguez or Jenkins. It would help if the player vying for this status was a plus defender. 
 

Midsummer (‘22 and ‘24) Miranda might qualify despite his less-than-great glovework because of the way he hit during those relatively short intervals and because he pounded right handed pitching.

I agree that Castro shouldn’t be one of the five guys, but as a sixth, starting closer to 100 games (about what he did in ‘23), he could be a big positive. 

I believe that Wallner could be promoted to one of the five guy spots. He would already be one of mine but they never ask for my advice. 

For Wallner to graduate to one of those vital five guy spots. All it would take is a 4th left handed hitter on the roster which would then eclipse the number of extra right handers who could take their place. It's really that simple. Building your roster to accommodate this extreme split has limitations and those limitations cause extreme limitations on how you build your roster. That's the lunacy of building your roster to fit this system. It requires a rigid template. You need to sign a Margot to keep Wallner away from lefties. You need to demote a Kepler because you signed Margot and he needs to be kept away from righties. You still need to play Margot against right handers because Buxton is always hurt.  

Of course... if the Twins were to add that 4th left handed hitter in let's say August.

Wallner would be suddenly asked to do something that he wasn't allowed to do in March, April, May, June and July... not to mention 2024 and 2023. 

You are right... Kepler was one of the five guys to start the season in 2024. We had Kepler, Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff to start the season... too many lefties to keep them all clean. Kepler got demoted out of a five guy spot not because of his numbers at the time (even though they were not stellar) but because Julien crashed and burned reducing the number of left handed hitters to 3 and the right handed hitters still need to be fed. 

 

I have one wish for this off-season. I would like them to stop using this template. 

[Vanimal46]

I would give Wallner every opportunity to be one of the Five Guys. His arm plays in either corner OF spot and his bat has All-Star upside. 

Correa, Buxton, and Lewis will be called upon again to be in the Five Guys and that’s the frustrating part. Health continues to fail them every season. 

Beyond that, I don’t think there’s a final 5 guy… Also, since no one has done it yet. 

https://restaurants.fiveguys.com/search

[C-Gangster]

11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I know where Five Guys is located in Grand Forks. In a strip mall by Kohl's near Target on the south end of town. Tasty Burger but kind of pricey so I don't go that often but I know where it is if I need Five Guys. 

The Twins need Five Guys... Do they know where to find Five Guys... Can they Afford Five Guys? 

They need Five Guys for the rotation. They need Five Guys for the 40 man with it currently sitting at 35. 

But... those will not be my focus. It is important for all of us to understand that the Twins will need Five Guys who will play most days by not being subject to platoon. 

Last Year... Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro and Santana were the Five Guys. Buxton, Correa and Lewis are often injured. They ranked 7th, 8th and 10th on the team in Plate Appearances. 

Where are these Five Guys currently located for the Twins. These Five guys should be the players who carry your team. They are the everyday Five Guys.

Is Castro talented enough to be one of the five everyday guys? Is Miranda the fifth of the Five Guys? Is it Lee? Will Lee even break camp with the club out of spring training?  

We know that Wallner, Larnach or Julien are not eligible for one of the Five Guy spots due to severe platooning restrictions. And we know it's not the three right handed bats that they will roster to platoon with Wallner, Larnach or Julien. Those spots will go to the Margot and Farmer replacements that the Twins are obligated to sign to keep the platoon integrity intact. 

Can the Twins find Five Guys who can be every day leaders? Can they afford the expensive burger?

If there is one thing that scares me this offseason. It's those Five Guys. 3 players that could carry you but are often injured and an over relied upon Castro and you are still one short. 

 

 

 

 

 

Love that place I go there quite often.

[tony&rodney]

I nominate Payton Eeles and Emmanuel Rodriguez plus a mystery guy added from a trade.

[ashbury]

Your 5 guys threshold is a good and instructive one.  I took a look at all of the AL teams for 2024, and ranked their players by number of PA.

Our 5th most PA were taken by Trevor Larnach at 400.

Only one other team, the Tigers, had a #5 guy with a lower number of times up (Spencer Torkelson, 381).  Only two other teams, Tampa Bay and the Lowly White Sox (yes that word is now officially part of their name), tied at 425, had a #5 especially close to the Twins.

Injuries can happen. Or some players flame out beginning the season while others step up.  But if the off-season plan works, you ought to have a top 5 that racks up lots of PA. 

The Yankees' #5 guy had 621 PA.  Now that's a plan that came together.  Conversely, the Tigers managed to survive this, and even made the playoffs - kudos to them for adapting.

But a team's utility infielder should not lead the team in PA.  It happening means something went very, very wrong.

Identifying your everyday players, and having them play well enough to do so - that probably is every FO's plan during the off-season.  Last off-season's plan for the Twins didn't pan out AT ALL.  Let's hope good planning and better luck are with Falvey this time.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm suddenly and unaccountably hungry.

[ashbury]

On 11/5/2024 at 12:26 PM, stringer bell said:

Castro and Lee are almost automatically Five Guys candidates because of being switch hitters. 

IF they're good enough to play everyday. 

Lee needs to prove it (my preference being at St Paul), and Castro is an everyday player only on a team lacking championship aspirations.

[RpR]

An infield where 3rd, Short Stop, 2nd and 1st are constants, makes for a smooth running team as each player knows how the others will handle most situations.

There will be little to no, "what the hell was that"; now a Cesar Tovar type utility would be a fifth to fix any loose ends.

Twins have none of that as sadly, Castro is not near as good as Tovar.

[mrcharlie]

Five Guys eh...   Buxton, Lewis (like to see him traded actually), Correa, Santana, Wallner I say.  Yes, I know that requires Santana returning(does he want to?) and Wallner not being plattooned.  Perhaps Jeffers makes it in the 5 hole?  Point is...give guys a chance to perform and gain experience. The over-managing in today's game is a problem.

[DocBauer]

I generally agree with this excluding the catching position, which sort of shortens the plan. But without having a HOF caliber catcher behind the plate, I really like having a pair of catchers you can rely on to manage your staff. I'd prefer a solid catcher who isn't an almost black hole at the plate as part of that duo...Castro and Garver being a great example...but as bad a Vazquez was, his hot streaks with Jeffers being above average even with his cold ones...was a good platoon. I'm still wondering if Falvey might trade a couple/trio of top 30 prospects to add a young catcher to team with Jeffers as a BIG MOVE, and then move Vazquez in whatever deal is available to add a little payroll wiggle room. I don't know if that kind of platoon qualifies as part of THE 5, but it sure doesn't hurt, right?

I am NOT trying to be overly optimistic here, but I wanted to toss out a few ideas regarding the TOP 5, which i agree with.

1] I truly believe Correa's issues were related to his cleats. This is based on personal experience, the fact that his plantar issues came out of nowhere,  as well as what Correa reported when he blew up his Nike deal and found a different brand to wear. I can see him healthy for 140 games in 2025.

2] Baseball gods bless Buxton going forward, Unless i missed something, the plica correction Buxton had made his knee feel great again. His injury issues last year was a re-occurance of his hip, which has been an issue here and there related to compensating for his previous knee issues. He reached a 100 games in 2024. With an offseason of rest, strength and flexibility work, is it possible his hip will "settle down" now? Might we dream of 120 games? Not saying it should be expected, but I think it's a dream worth considering.

3] Lewis has missed so much time due to his knee injuries. But they seem fine now. But I recall a deeply detailed OP by our resident TD physical therapist Lucas several months ago discussing soft tissue injuries that can often happen when a body has been compensating for other injuries. (This goes back to Buxton as well). Paraphrasing here, when the body has been adjusting to previous injury, it compensates, and when stressed, it can take time to readjust to more normal usage. So might Lewis, his body FINALLY getting used to playing so much, "settle in" to "normalcy" as an everyday ballplayer? 

I think these important 3 and their injuries are worthy of angst, but also hope based on the points made. (The lineup looks damn good if so!)

4] Wallner's approach and potential at the plate demands he play more than as a platoon, IMO. And IIRC, Rocco began to trust him more against LHP later in this past season. A) he's too damn dangerous to take out of the lineup for a late game appearance, B) his ability to normally work a count means he's not just an automatic out if he just stays within himself. 

5] I almost hate to say this, but the development we've seen from Larnach in 2024, with a little better "contact" approach than Wallner has me somewhat optimistic he can hang in against LHP vs being an automatic platoon player.

6] I don't know about Lee just yet. He's got all the tangible skills to be a daily regular. There's a lot of angst right now about disappointment in his debut. But he looked great in ST, great in AAA, great for hus first couple of weeks with the Twins, and then he hurt his shoulder. Should we be down on a rookie who played a few weeks between injury stints with a bad shoulder? Because of that we should expect him to start in AAA? Maybe. But what if AAA is a month before he's up again? I'm not down on Lee at this point at all.

7] I'm going to disagree on Castro as part of a TOP 5 option, assuming he's still, hopefully, part of the Twins in 2025. Being a SUPER UTILITY player DOESN'T mean he can't play a single spot and be good. It just means he's got the unique ability to play all over as the 10th man. He earned an All Star berth based on his ability and production. His second half was poor based on a bad back. If he had been healthy all season, would he have been included in your TOP 5? He would be in mine.

8] Miranda, again with the damn injuries! Really solid rookie season. A completely LOST 2023, and then one of the Twins best hitters in 2024 for 3 1/2 months before a bad back. HOPEFULLY decent, OK defense at 1B, he's shown enough so far, IMO, that he might be a TOP 5 with the bat if his strained back is OK. He might be more of a line drive hitter with doubles power, and just might not be the 20HR slugger you'd want, but the bat plays if healthy.

It seems like there a lot of "IF's" here, and I guess there are. But i don't see $ available to sign Goldschmidt to 1B with hopes he can regain his stroke after a down season, but good second half, to be a potential middle of the order difference maker.

You and I both dislike relying too much on any sort of platoon situation. But any TOP 5 really comes down to all the players I've mentioned here. Good or bad, it comes down to health and development of the young bats on hand for 2025, with the idea of a couple really talented prospects like Keaschall and Rodriguez at some point. 

If the numbers work, I'd love to add a RH bat like Grichuk who isn't a platoon only RH bat, coming off a solid rebound season. He helps the OF lineup situation with better balance. I think it's a real need. And a perfect fit.

But the rest is health and development of the younger players with a hopefully different approach with the new coaches in regard to situational hitting for a more even offense over the season.

There's potential for a TOP 5 for sure. But it's going to have to come internally. 

 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I generally agree with this excluding the catching position, which sort of shortens the plan. But without having a HOF caliber catcher behind the plate, I really like having a pair of catchers you can rely on to manage your staff. I'd prefer a solid catcher who isn't an almost black hole at the plate as part of that duo...Castro and Garver being a great example...but as bad a Vazquez was, his hot streaks with Jeffers being above average even with his cold ones...was a good platoon. I'm still wondering if Falvey might trade a couple/trio of top 30 prospects to add a young catcher to team with Jeffers as a BIG MOVE, and then move Vazquez in whatever deal is available to add a little payroll wiggle room. I don't know if that kind of platoon qualifies as part of THE 5, but it sure doesn't hurt, right?

I am NOT trying to be overly optimistic here, but I wanted to toss out a few ideas regarding the TOP 5, which i agree with.

1] I truly believe Correa's issues were related to his cleats. This is based on personal experience, the fact that his plantar issues came out of nowhere,  as well as what Correa reported when he blew up his Nike deal and found a different brand to wear. I can see him healthy for 140 games in 2025.

2] Baseball gods bless Buxton going forward, Unless i missed something, the plica correction Buxton had made his knee feel great again. His injury issues last year was a re-occurance of his hip, which has been an issue here and there related to compensating for his previous knee issues. He reached a 100 games in 2024. With an offseason of rest, strength and flexibility work, is it possible his hip will "settle down" now? Might we dream of 120 games? Not saying it should be expected, but I think it's a dream worth considering.

3] Lewis has missed so much time due to his knee injuries. But they seem fine now. But I recall a deeply detailed OP by our resident TD physical therapist Lucas several months ago discussing soft tissue injuries that can often happen when a body has been compensating for other injuries. (This goes back to Buxton as well). Paraphrasing here, when the body has been adjusting to previous injury, it compensates, and when stressed, it can take time to readjust to more normal usage. So might Lewis, his body FINALLY getting used to playing so much, "settle in" to "normalcy" as an everyday ballplayer? 

I think these important 3 and their injuries are worthy of angst, but also hope based on the points made. (The lineup looks damn good if so!)

4] Wallner's approach and potential at the plate demands he play more than as a platoon, IMO. And IIRC, Rocco began to trust him more against LHP later in this past season. A) he's too damn dangerous to take out of the lineup for a late game appearance, B) his ability to normally work a count means he's not just an automatic out if he just stays within himself. 

5] I almost hate to say this, but the development we've seen from Larnach in 2024, with a little better "contact" approach than Wallner has me somewhat optimistic he can hang in against LHP vs being an automatic platoon player.

6] I don't know about Lee just yet. He's got all the tangible skills to be a daily regular. There's a lot of angst right now about disappointment in his debut. But he looked great in ST, great in AAA, great for hus first couple of weeks with the Twins, and then he hurt his shoulder. Should we be down on a rookie who played a few weeks between injury stints with a bad shoulder? Because of that we should expect him to start in AAA? Maybe. But what if AAA is a month before he's up again? I'm not down on Lee at this point at all.

7] I'm going to disagree on Castro as part of a TOP 5 option, assuming he's still, hopefully, part of the Twins in 2025. Being a SUPER UTILITY player DOESN'T mean he can't play a single spot and be good. It just means he's got the unique ability to play all over as the 10th man. He earned an All Star berth based on his ability and production. His second half was poor based on a bad back. If he had been healthy all season, would he have been included in your TOP 5? He would be in mine.

8] Miranda, again with the damn injuries! Really solid rookie season. A completely LOST 2023, and then one of the Twins best hitters in 2024 for 3 1/2 months before a bad back. HOPEFULLY decent, OK defense at 1B, he's shown enough so far, IMO, that he might be a TOP 5 with the bat if his strained back is OK. He might be more of a line drive hitter with doubles power, and just might not be the 20HR slugger you'd want, but the bat plays if healthy.

It seems like there a lot of "IF's" here, and I guess there are. But i don't see $ available to sign Goldschmidt to 1B with hopes he can regain his stroke after a down season, but good second half, to be a potential middle of the order difference maker.

You and I both dislike relying too much on any sort of platoon situation. But any TOP 5 really comes down to all the players I've mentioned here. Good or bad, it comes down to health and development of the young bats on hand for 2025, with the idea of a couple really talented prospects like Keaschall and Rodriguez at some point. 

If the numbers work, I'd love to add a RH bat like Grichuk who isn't a platoon only RH bat, coming off a solid rebound season. He helps the OF lineup situation with better balance. I think it's a real need. And a perfect fit.

But the rest is health and development of the younger players with a hopefully different approach with the new coaches in regard to situational hitting for a more even offense over the season.

There's potential for a TOP 5 for sure. But it's going to have to come internally. 

 

I did exclude the catchers because they seem to have their own rotation. However... I do admit that this is also wishful thinking on my part because there was a stretch last year where Jeffers was the short side platoon at the DH position in addition to his catching split with Vazquez. If Jeffers slides into that role this year. The Twins can then accommodate protection for a 4 left handed hitter on the roster. You know... in case Erod or Jenkins get the call. As our Joc Pederson ceiling development program cranks up even more. 

I do not hold your optimism for Correa, Buxton or Lewis health. At the very least... if we did get extended health out of any of those three... there will at least be maintenance days but I do admire the optimism.

Grichuk turned down the 6 million dollar mutual option with the D-Backs. He is either looking for a two year deal or a full time gig at age 33. Probably both. 

If the Twins sign Grichuk. It won't be for full time duty. It will become full time duty during stretches of the year. It would signify to me that the template is still controlling the roster construction of our club.  It would signify the willingness to commit almost their entire available limited shopping budget to the template. Much like they did this past off-season. 

It would signify the willingness to pay 6 million blowing most of the budget on a vet who flashed up to 140 OPS+ in 279 heavy platooned AB's at age 32 after 104, 93 and 87 ops+ in 471, 538 and 585 not platooned AB'S in the three years prior. Refsnyder isn't available. Grichuk would be the short side Refsnyder, Margot type specialist that the club is probably looking for but shouldn't be.  

Grichuk shouldn't be on any wish list. He would be perpetuation. We will be looking for a Grichuk this year and the year after and the year after that and the year after that and the year after that. We will need to find a Margot, Grichuk or Garlick every single year because Erod and Jenkins can't fill the Grichuk space. 

Jenkins will never be Juan Soto. Randal Grichuk types will guarantee it. 

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I did exclude the catchers because they seem to have their own rotation. However... I do admit that this is also wishful thinking on my part because there was a stretch last year where Jeffers was the short side platoon at the DH position in addition to his catching split with Vazquez. If Jeffers slides into that role this year. The Twins can then accommodate protection for a 4 left handed hitter on the roster. You know... in case Erod or Jenkins get the call. As our Joc Pederson ceiling development program cranks up even more. 

I do not hold your optimism for Correa, Buxton or Lewis health. At the very least... if we did get extended health out of any of those three... there will at least be maintenance days but I do admire the optimism.

Grichuk turned down the 6 million dollar mutual option with the D-Backs. He is either looking for a two year deal or a full time gig at age 33. Probably both. 

If the Twins sign Grichuk. It won't be for full time duty. It will become full time duty during stretches of the year. It would signify to me that the template is still controlling the roster construction of our club.  It would signify the willingness to commit almost their entire available limited shopping budget to the template. Much like they did this past off-season. 

It would signify the willingness to pay 6 million blowing most of the budget on a vet who flashed up to 140 OPS+ in 279 heavy platooned AB's at age 32 after 104, 93 and 87 ops+ in 471, 538 and 585 not platooned AB'S in the three years prior. Refsnyder isn't available. Grichuk would be the short side Refsnyder, Margot type specialist that the club is probably looking for but shouldn't be.  

Grichuk shouldn't be on any wish list. He would be perpetuation. We will be looking for a Grichuk this year and the year after and the year after that and the year after that and the year after that. We will need to find a Margot, Grichuk or Garlick every single year because Erod and Jenkins can't fill the Grichuk space. 

If Buxton, Correa, and Lewis are not part of the five because of injury you obviously need the other 5 to play everyday.  Then, you need a bench of players who can cover multiple positions and hit well-above average against RHP all on a very limited budget.  Just not realistic and you get crushed by LHP and you have a team that can't match-up in the playoffs.

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If Buxton, Correa, and Lewis are not part of the five because of injury you obviously need the other 5 to play everyday.  Then, you need a bench of players who can cover multiple positions and hit well-above average against RHP all on a very limited budget.  Just not realistic and you get crushed by LHP and you have a team that can't match-up in the playoffs.

Thank you for not being abusive in your response. 

Buxton, Correa and Lewis are the top 3 of the five. They are all we have in the five at this current moment. The question is... who are the two that will join them. Those three require maintenance days when healthy but if healthy they are in the lineup against left and right handers. Lewis if healthy doesn't require a platoon. Buxton if healthy doesn't require a platoon... Correa if healthy doesn't require a platoon. You need 5 who don't require a platoon.

Those 3 unfortunately most likely won't stay healthy all year and therefore are going to require your hired short side specialist to fill a top 5 role when they go down during the season because our left handers are not eligible for such duties.  

I think I understand your point but it's possible that I don't. Are you suggesting that it's not realistic to have a roster entirely made up of above average against right handers? 

I agree that it's not realistic. But... you can improve against right handers. 

However... you can guarantee that you won't improve against right handers if you purposely spend millions from a limited budget on Margot and Farmer who struggle against right handers using up limited roster space in the process. And then continue to spend limited millions and spend limited roster space on their look a likes in the following years because you will have to just to purpurate the template of hiding the young lefties from the lefties.  

I have said that I'm not looking for 13 left handers. I'm hoping you understand that. You keep implying that I'm saying that... I'm not. 

[stringer bell]

36 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I  have said that I'm not looking for 13 left handers. I'm hoping you understand that. You keep implying that I'm saying that... I'm not. 

That's what I'm hearing RB. I'll carry this a bit further and say that it would be great to have a LH hitter that routinely starts every day, no matter which hand the pitcher uses to throw. I don't know if Wallner can make enough contact to stay in every day or maybe that day won't come until Rodriguez or Jenkins is ready. Having five every day players including one lefty and one switch hitter would get a lot closer to ideal. Add in Castro as a guy who starts between 100 and 120 games and the rotating catcher arrangement and then there is maybe one or two more strict platoons. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

That's what I'm hearing RB. I'll carry this a bit further and say that it would be great to have a LH hitter that routinely starts every day, no matter which hand the pitcher uses to throw. I don't know if Wallner can make enough contact to stay in every day or maybe that day won't come until Rodriguez or Jenkins is ready. Having five every day players including one lefty and one switch hitter would get a lot closer to ideal. Add in Castro as a guy who starts between 100 and 120 games and the rotating catcher arrangement and then there is maybe one or two more strict platoons. 

It's like Mike Sixel says... It's a dial not a switch.

I'm not even anti-platoon. All teams platoon and I recognize this.    

Right now... I'm just asking that they stop with the template. I'm asking that they don't spend limited budget on specialists in order to keep the template intact. Because the template requires sacrifice to maintain over the course of a season. 

I'm saying that the combination of money spent on Farmer and Margot to serve as short siders while using up two precious roster spots could be combined into one player. Combine the money spent (maybe add some more cash to it) to acquire a single player who makes more sense for one of the 5 guy spots than Castro or Santana. One better player... one roster spot used instead of two roster spots to cover one spot in the lineup. . 

Wallner? I'd give him one of the top 5 spots. I don't like the strikeouts but he is simply one of our best 5 players because he does damage when he hits the ball to the tune of an .895 OPS. 

Will facing left handers drive the strikeouts higher? Probably... maybe not... maybe he improves his strikeout rate against righties and the addition of lefties equalizes it. 

Will facing left handers drive the OPS down? Probably. But .895 is a nice start... he's got some room to come down if he comes down. Triston Casas has a high strikeout rate. Oneil Cruz has a high strikeout rate but they also hit the ball very very hard.  

Here's another question... will increased exposure to lefties help Wallner improve his OPS against lefties? Improve it from .600 to .700 or .750... I don't know but I'm going with... it might. Exposure can do that. Which is better than locking him in by denying exposure. 

We don't have to lock him in at .600 against left handers for the slight advantage in one AB in the 5th inning of game 35 in May. And that adds another consideration... You don't know what you need until you need it. If you deny Wallner for two years... deny him in 2025 in April, May, June, July. If you deny him consistently... do you have to deny Erod being the call up when Buxton gets hurt in August or September? You may have to because Erod becomes that extra lefty that you can't protect. You can only protect 3 of them due to roster limitation. So calling up Erod to replace Buxton... is going to all of sudden force Wallner into a role that you have denied him and it's going to happen in crunch time instead of game 35 in May.   

Ultimately... I have these concerns about the development of a Wallner or Erod and Jenkins in the future when they hit the shore... but that is just one issue with the template that I have.

The worse problem with the template is the requirement to spend 10 million plus that we don't have... just to commit two or three roster spots to specialists that will just end up facing more right handers that they are not special at because our top 3 guys can't stay on the field. If Buxton needs the day, week or 2nd half off... Wallner or Larnach isn't his replacement in the lineup... They are already in the lineup against the right handed pitcher. It's Margot or Farmer who faces Wacha because that is all you have on the roster. 

I'd rather they combine that limited money and get one guy for the 5 Guy Spots or at the very least focus that limited available money on someone who specializes with the 75% rather than the 25%. In order to do that. You might add a left handed hitter bringing us to more than we can protect and someone will now have to face them.   

It doesn't require 13 left handers... It just requires adding more than can be protected. Which can give you better odds against the 75% instead of the 25% even if only incremental improvement... it's improvement toward the majority instead of the minority.

Think about this String and I know you know this because you pay attention to these things. There were multiple times last season that we had all 9 spots in the batting order in the right handed batters box against a left handed starter. We focused on this in the off-season and we we were able to load up against the lefty. We don't have this type of platoon advantage against Right handed pitchers. That's backwards. Add more lefties.  

Cleveland for example has more left handed hitters than they can hide. The Orioles have more left handers  than they can hide. Cleveland can send 8 batters into the left handed batters box against right handers. Cleveland is better off against the 75%... We went after the 25%... we can send up 9 against the left hander. The splits are real... We played the split wrong. We have it backwards. Baltimore and Cleveland are showing us that it's OK to have extra left handers. More than you can protect. It's OK... They didn't need 13 of them.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

37 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It's like Mike Sixel says... It's a dial not a switch.

I'm not even anti-platoon. All teams platoon and I recognize this.    

Right now... I'm just asking that they stop with the template. I'm asking that they don't spend limited budget on specialists in order to keep the template intact. Because the template requires sacrifice to maintain over the course of a season. 

I'm saying that the combination of money spent on Farmer and Margot to serve as short siders while using up two precious roster spots could be combined into one player. Combine the money spent (maybe add some more cash to it) to acquire a single player who makes more sense for one of the 5 guy spots than Castro or Santana. One better player... one roster spot used instead of two. 

Wallner? I'd give him one of the top 5 spots. I don't like the strikeouts but he is simply one of our best 5 players because he does damage when he hits the ball to the tune of an .895 OPS. 

Will facing left handers drive the strikeouts higher? Probably.

Will face left handers drive the OPS down? Probably. But .895 is a nice start... he's got some room to come down if he comes down. Triston Casas has a high strikeout rate. Oneil Cruz has high strikeout rates. 

Here's another question... will increased exposure to lefties help Wallner improve his OPS against lefties? Improve it from .600 to .700 or .750... I don't know but I'm going with... it might. Exposure can do that.

We don't have to lock him in at .600 against left handers for the slight advantage in one AB in the 5th inning of game 35 in May. 

Ultimately... I have these concerns about the development of a Wallner or Erod and Jenkins in the future when they hit the shore... but that is just one issue with the template that I have.

The worse problem with the template is the requirement to spend 10 million plus that we don't have... just to commit two or three roster spots to specialists that will just end up facing more right handers anyway because our top 3 guys can't stay on the field.

I'd rather they combine that limited money and get one guy for the 5 Guy Spots or at the very least focus that limited available money on someone who specializes with the 75% rather than the 25%. In order to do that. You might add a left handed hitter bringing us to more than we can protect and someone will now have to face them.   

It doesn't require 13 left handers... It just requires adding more than can be protected. Which can give you better odds against the 75% instead of the 25% even if only incremental improvement... it's improvement toward the majority instead of the minority. 

Cleveland for example has more left handed hitters than they can hide. The Orioles have more left handers  than they can hide. It's OK... We don't need a Margot. 

An additional element to the “dial not switch” train of thought.

your 26 man roster is dynamic. The mix of skills shifts as the season progresses. Injuries and ineffectiveness are going to ebb and flow. It’s an eventuality.

the more plan A relies on platooning, the harder it is to maintain the correct portfolio of skills. Not only do you need a backup RF, but you need one that offers both sides of the platoon split. The more you platoon, the more you are forced to platoon.

the more diverse your product portfolio, the more SKUs you need to support. The more SKUs the more overhead to manage. The roster is limited to 26 active, 40 total, portfolio is getting bigger than the overhead can manage, and is cannibalizing sales. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

An additional element to the “dial not switch” train of thought.

your 26 man roster is dynamic. The mix of skills shifts as the season progresses. Injuries and ineffectiveness are going to ebb and flow. It’s an eventuality.

the more plan A relies on platooning, the harder it is to maintain the correct portfolio of skills. Not only do you need a backup RF, but you need one that offers both sides of the platoon split. The more you platoon, the more you are forced to platoon.

the more diverse your product portfolio, the more SKUs you need to support. The more SKUs the more overhead to manage. The roster is limited to 26 active, 40 total, portfolio is getting bigger than the overhead can manage, and is cannibalizing sales. 

BINGO with all capital letters. 

Your needs change as the season progresses. The more you platoon... the more you forced to platoon. You can't get out of it. 

You have nailed it.

You have become my favorite poster now. I have to work so hard with everyone else.  

If you set your roster to platoon in the off-season... you can't get out of it as your needs change. It's a rabbit hole that is impossible to escape. It takes complete commitment to the bit. It requires self induced compromise... to get through 162 games if you start with the template.  

To protect Wallner you need Margot. To protect Margot you need Wallner. 

If Wallner is sent down or hurt in April. Now what? Kepler is demoted to platoon because Margot's presence on the roster must be justified. Keirsay is called up instead of Martin by virtue of what batters box he stands in... instead of who is actually hitting the ball in St. Paul because Margot's presence on the roster has to be justified. 

Miranda has to sit against right handers regardless if he has hit right handers significantly better because they have to have someone protect Larnach or Julien.  

Margot ends up playing anyway when Buxton gets hurt.

Switch hitters become the most important thing on the roster. 

Castro becomes one of the 5 guys. 

You have built an unmovable object in the off-season. You have to adjust to the template not to the context of what the hell is actually happening with individual players. The unmovable object template that you built in the off season controls the adjustments that you can make... and adjustments are always necessary. Does Julien need to be sent down? Does Wallner? Kirilloff? Does Martin a right hander now have platoon with Margot because you are out of left handed options? Does Camargo have to be a third catcher and gather dust because Jeffers is all of sudden needed to be the DH vs Left Handers? Is Margot 0 for 30 pinch hitting? Is Farmer in a 4 month slump? Is Kepler in a 4 month slump? Does Correa have plantar fasciitis in his third leg?    

The template overrules everything over 162 games until it runs out of parts to feed it. 

When you run out of parts to feed it.... And then all of sudden you have Wallner facing Framber Valdez in late September or the playoffs should you manage to survive your self imposed limitations and get that far. OK... Maybe Helman is now starting against Framber because you have starved Wallner all season long in service of the object you built.  

It has taken a sensible data point and abused it to the point of something to over come. 

A glass of wine nightly is good for you... 5 bottles of wine a night is not. 

I'm hoping that the Twins are able to just stop building the roster to the strict inflexible parameters of this process. Just abruptly stop doing it... much like they abruptly stopped with the strict interpretation of the third time through order data point for starting pitchers in 2022.  That legit data point became the dominant metric and it controlled a season long philosophy in 2022.   

They took a legitimate data point overweighted it's value beyond what other teams do with the same data to the point making useful information useless. 

They just stopped doing that. Can they stop doing this? Is an intervention followed by rehab necessary? 

[jorgenswest]

I would be searching for Seven Guys. They need at least 7 they can count on when constructing a roster. Add to that with two catchers and two utility men leaving them with one platoon pairing to start the year. They should roster no more than one short side right handed platoon bat. Every other right handed bat has to be able to hit right handed pitching or contribute defensive flexibility.

I really don’t believe it is a competitive disadvantage to start Wallner against a lefty. Place him towards the bottom of the order and he likely only sees that lefty twice while ready to crush that middle inning right handed reliever. I also think having a few lefties in the line up can throw that left handed starter off rhythm. Maybe they get Wallner out but are less effective against the next batter.

Let’s start a search for seven guys.

Right now I have Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Miranda, Rodriguez and Lee. Add Jeffers, Vazquez, Castro, Julien and Larnach. Find at most one short sided platoon bat. If they want to spend the dollars to upgrade that group and send out someone with options that is preferred as long as they add an everyday player to replace them.

[mrcharlie]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

An additional element to the “dial not switch” train of thought.

your 26 man roster is dynamic. The mix of skills shifts as the season progresses. Injuries and ineffectiveness are going to ebb and flow. It’s an eventuality.

the more plan A relies on platooning, the harder it is to maintain the correct portfolio of skills. Not only do you need a backup RF, but you need one that offers both sides of the platoon split. The more you platoon, the more you are forced to platoon.

the more diverse your product portfolio, the more SKUs you need to support. The more SKUs the more overhead to manage. The roster is limited to 26 active, 40 total, portfolio is getting bigger than the overhead can manage, and is cannibalizing sales. 

Good sales pitch.  I'll buy...do you have a senior discount to offer Santana or Goldschmidt?

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would be searching for Seven Guys. They need at least 7 they can count on when constructing a roster. Add to that with two catchers and two utility men leaving them with one platoon pairing to start the year. They should roster no more than one short side right handed platoon bat. Every other right handed bat has to be able to hit right handed pitching or contribute defensive flexibility.

I really don’t believe it is a competitive disadvantage to start Wallner against a lefty. Place him towards the bottom of the order and he likely only sees that lefty twice while ready to crush that middle inning right handed reliever. I also think having a few lefties in the line up can throw that left handed starter off rhythm. Maybe they get Wallner out but are less effective against the next batter.

Let’s start a search for seven guys.

Right now I have Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Miranda, Rodriguez and Lee. Add Jeffers, Vazquez, Castro, Julien and Larnach. Find at most one short sided platoon bat. If they want to spend the dollars to upgrade that group and send out someone with options that is preferred as long as they add an everyday player to replace them.

I said Five guys only in service of the template. I agree... I'd search for 7. And once the limitations of the template are removed... you can go from 7 to 8 to 9.  

[chpettit19]

The crazy thing to me is the abrupt change between the minors and majors with this strategy. Matt Wallner absolutely destroyed left handed pitching in the minors for multiple seasons. In both AA and AAA. He was a first round comp pick. He wasn't some no name emergency call-up to fill a hole. He did the proverbial "forced his way onto the roster" thing. Then he was forced into the template (stealing your phrase here). That's my biggest problem. You use minor league production/performance to make decisions on everything else, but you have to ignore it on this?

You want to limit lower level prospects who struggled against same handed guys in the minors and aren't really expected to be part of your future core? I'm in. Makes sense. But the Wallner, Emma, Jenkins type guys who you're hoping are future All Stars and faces of the franchise? Put them in there and let them go. Drop them down in the order, but let them run. Even when they struggle. Let them learn and become one of your Five Guys.

Gunnar Henderson vs lefties:
2022: 14 games 26 PAs (106 vs righties) .130/.231/.217/.448
2023: 86 games 167 PAs (455 vs righties) .210/.293/.324/.618
2024:  103 games 217 PAs (502 vs righties) .257/.359/.470/.829

There were 3 Twins with more than 100 PAs in 2024 with a better overall OPS than Gunnar had left on left. 3.

The Twins as a team had 194 PAs left on left in 2024. That's less than Gunnar had alone. Only team in baseball under 200. Tampa had 222. Only other team under 250. There were only 5 other teams (including Tampa) under 300 PAs left on left. Are the Twins smarter than everyone else or the opposite of that?

[mrcharlie]

Injuries or trades aside I suggest this every day crew.           No particular batting order...                 Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, Lee, Miranda.  At this point I look hard for trades to up grade from Miranda.  If Lewis is still troubled by his role and contributions to the late season collapse the try to move him in a big trade.  Lastly, let Jeffers prove he can or can't do the job 5 days a week.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins as a team had 194 PAs left on left in 2024. That's less than Gunnar had alone. Only team in baseball under 200. Tampa had 222. Only other team under 250. There were only 5 other teams (including Tampa) under 300 PAs left on left. Are the Twins smarter than everyone else or the opposite of that?

Kind of hair curling when you see this eh? I was in Canada last week so I've added the occasional Eh. 

Most people don't understand the degree of prayer at this particular alter in comparison with their peers.

All 30 teams have left on left data. I'm sure it reads the exact same way for all 30 teams... Yet the Twins have taken the importance of this data to franchise altering adherence. They are building their roster in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data. They are kneecapping development of their future players in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data and they are conducting this kneecapping in the face of fairly serious spending limitation which will ratchet up the importance of developing complete ball players... not prospects who have been stripped mined for parts. They have made themselves slaves to the template in order to adhere to their unique over weighting of this data. They did this willingly... on purpose... of their own accord... volition. 

According to some... I can't raise this point because the analysts know more than I do. I believe with all of my fiber that they know more than I do. They better... they do this for living. 

But... the question becomes... what does the Twins analytics department know better than the other 29 teams that are not programming their roster to these rigid parameters in the off-season, locking the setting and then throwing away the key until the long game is played out and you are left gasping for air at the end of the year like a carp flopping around on the riverbank.  

We need 5 guys who don't platoon under the template... how do you get to 7 like Jorgenswest suggests. I'd like to get to 7 guys. 7 guys is a deeper roster... it provides more overall talent when healthy... it provides quality insurance for the Buxton, Lewis physical break downs. Getting to 7 guys can't be done under this rigid template. It requires talent compromises from the on-set throughout all 162 games just to keep it running just for the benefit of any gains made by Margot facing left handers which are erased completely by the disadvantage of Margot facing right handers more frequently. 

It's a fundamental problem with the buildings foundation that they build upon. Yet they keep building upon it. 

You see it.   

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Kind of hair curling when you see this eh? I was in Canada last week so I've added the occasional Eh. 

Most people don't understand the degree of prayer at this particular alter in comparison with their peers.

All 30 teams have left on left data. I'm sure it reads the exact same way for all 30 teams... Yet the Twins have taken the importance of this data to franchise altering adherence. They are building their roster in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data. They are kneecapping development of their future players in accordance to their unique over weighting of this data and they are conducting this kneecapping in the face of fairly serious spending limitation which will ratchet up the importance of developing complete ball players... not prospects who have been stripped mined for parts. They have made themselves slaves to the template in order to adhere to their unique over weighting of this data. They did this willingly... on purpose... of their own accord... volition. 

According to some... I can't raise this point because the analysts know more than I do. I believe with all of my fiber that they know more than I do. They better... they do this for living. 

But... the question becomes... what does the Twins analytics department know better than the other 29 teams that are not programming their roster to these rigid parameters in the off-season, locking the setting and then throwing away the key until the long game is played out and you are left gasping for air at the end of the year like a Carp flopping around on the riverbank.  

We need 5 guys who don't platoon under the template... how do you get to 7 like Jorgenswest suggests. I'd like to get to 7 guys. 7 guys is a deeper roster... it provides more overall talent when healthy... it provides quality insurance for the Buxton, Lewis physical break downs. Getting to 7 guys can't be done under this rigid template. It requires talent compromises from the on-set throughout all 162 games just to keep it running just for the benefit of any gains made my Margot facing left handers which are erased completely by the disadvantage of Margot facing right handers more frequently. 

It's a fundamental problem with with the buildings foundation that they build upon. Yet they keep building upon it. 

You see it.   

And they're doing it knowing their 3 most important players will struggle to play 300 combined games year in and year out. That's a special kind of confidence in their plan. I don't think I've ever been that confident in any plan in my life. But I like to think I thrive in the chaos of not having a confident plan (I don't).