Searching for Five Guys

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And they're doing it knowing their 3 most important players will struggle to play 300 combined games year in and year out. That's a special kind of confidence in their plan. I don't think I've ever been that confident in any plan in my life. But I like to think I thrive in the chaos of not having a confident plan (I don't).

The Ole' All Eggs in one Basket plan. Even if the basket malfunctions. 

 

[DocBauer]

I keep wondering if some of "the plan" that the Twins have been following is an over reaction to a couple really poor seasons in the past against LHP? 

SOME platooning has always happened, and always will. And I'm in 100% agreement the Twins have taken it to extremees. 70-75% of all arms are RH. We all know this. So where do you draw the line?

I've read posts in different OP's about the Twins needing a RH hitting CF option to backup Buxton. Why? What's wrong with a LH option? That was part of the problem with Margot last season, and someone like Garlick a couple years ago. A poor defensive player who can only perform against LHP doesn't work because sooner or later said player is going to have to face same side arms, and probably way more than you want them to. Then what? Especially if you've PH too early and now your best LH bats are done for the day.

Brian, I mentioned Grichuk in an earlier post. I don't know that he should or shouldn't be any sort of Twins target. (Not sure he's going to get the kind of deal he wants, but that's neither here nor there). But I mentioned him simply because his career splits had him as OK/acceptable against RH pitching for his career. Before he bottomed out last season, Adam Duvall might have been a good comp for what the Twins should be looking to add, again, a decent bat against same side pitching.

Building your roster too far to the short side is a recipe for disaster. Agreed. IF the Twins can actually add a RH bat through FA or trade, he should absolutely be able to not embarrass himself against RH arms! It's a non brainer that Falvey SHOULD recognize at this point.

Rocco, as most managers I believe, likes to have a balanced lineup where you can alternate RH and LH bats. Makes sense right? But unless you've got Randy Johnson on the mound destroying all your LH bats, you're going to need those LH bats to face a reliever at some point in the game. And you're right that if they never face LH pitching, how are they ever going to become even mediocre?

I'm 100% behind having a good, solid RH bat who could alternate with Larnach and Wallner in the corners here and there to provide a quasi platoon. One is in the lineup, one on the bench ready to come in. But to just refuse to let them face LHP ceases their development. 

Back to the CF situation for a moment. Until Rodriguez is ready, or if the Twins somehow add a CF option to backup Buxton, why wouldn't be a viable option to try? So what if he's LH? I'd rather have an inexpensive, defense first alternate with some speed, pop, and the ability to MAYBE hit ML pitching...which he's BARELY been given the opportunity to do...instead of a Margot retread who CAN'T hit dominate side arms and can't play decent defense simply because he's RH!

Short term thinking by the FO, and again, probably an over compensation for some inexplicably bad seasons against LHP. 

I find it interesting that currently, Keirsey and Helman, a RH, remain on the 40 man. That might be short term. Or, they may remain out of necessity due to the payroll. But at least they provide defense, versatility, athleticism and speed. Internal, self scouting is one are that I think Falvey misses on once in a while. Keirsey and Helman may simply not be ML ballplayers. Or maybe, given a chance, they can be good role players. But in 2024 for example, they sat while Margot struggled in the field, and at the plate with the exception of a few good months in the middle of the season.

I know I'm a little more hopeful on some of the injury situations than you, but I think we're in agreement that Correa, Buxton, and Lewis are part of the TOP 5. The whole plantar thing is AWEFUL...BTDT...but it's also unpredictable. Therapy, time off, new shoes, I remain hopeful on Correa. And I'm going to benhopeful Lewis's body "settles in" to extended playing time. Buck's knee better, and no longer playing 100% ALL OUT on every play offers SOME hope his hip will begin to cooperate.

In addition to those 3, I've also got Wallner. He's too damn good and has too much potential to NOT play him almost daily. He's got the ability to hit a mistake from a LHP and do real damage. 

That's 4.

Miranda's shoulder appears fine. If his back issue in 2024 was just a q time thing, no matter how he's used, he could be the #5. He hits RHP well, sprays the ball around the field, and is not a platoon piece.

That's 5.

If Castro is back, and HIS back issue was also a 1 time thing, he's an everyday day ballplayer, not just a utility player. 

That's 6.

Larnach had his best and longest and most productive ML season. I believe he finished the year with the 5th highest OPS?? And he did so while battling turf toe most of the season and a late hamstring injury. I don't think he's ever going to be a star player, but his approach is sound. I think both he and Wallner have the potential to be OK against LHP, even though they are different hitters. But both have shown the ability to at least battle at the plate. That's the first part of being a complete hitter, just not giving away too many AB. But again, SOMEONE from the RH side to form a quasi platoon makes sense.

That's 7, with the caveat that he and Wallner sit once in a while and maybe bat lower in the order against LHSP.

Lee has to be healthy. If he is, I don't hold his injury riddled debut against him. He was great in ST, was great at AAA, debuted well, and then floundered when hurt. He's got the ability and all the intangibles to be very good, if not a star.

That's 8.

The catching duo is the final spot in a complete lineup. 

This group is not going to be healthy all the time, nor in the lineup every single day. So no matter how potentially good they all are, a 7 or 8 man TOP GUY list can be reduced to 5 or 6  really easy.

The key is 2 things, IMO:

1] DON'T BE AFRAID to let LH bats face LHP. That doesn't mean load up your entire lineup with LH bats of course, but let them play, learn, and keep a balanced lineup with your best, most talented players playing as often as possible.

2] When building the rest of your roster, DON'T SETTLE for a one dimensional option who has little to no defensive value and who can ONLY hit one sided pitching. Because invariably, they are going to be put in to situations you never wanted them to be put in.

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I keep wondering if some of "the plan" that the Twins have been following is an over reaction to a couple really poor seasons in the past against LHP? 

Most policies in all industries are in place as a reaction to something that needs a fixin'. 

There is a Preparation H warning that says "Not for Oral use". Someone ate a tube and complained that it didn't work. Unfortunately he had to write a letter to complain because his mouth shrunk to the point that he couldn't speak. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Most policies in all industries are in place as a reaction to something that needs a fixin'. 

There is a Preparation H warning that says "Not for Oral use". Someone ate a tube and complained that it didn't work. Unfortunately he had to write a letter to complain because his mouth shrunk to the point that he couldn't speak. 

 

In 2023 the Twins had 186 PAs as PH ranked 3rd in MLB, they were rewarded a 101 wRC+ in those 186 PAs ranked 6th. Alternatively they had 345 PAs LHH vs LHP ranked 21, for a 62 wRC+ ranked 27.

in 2024 the Twins had 182 PH PAs ranked 3rd for a 57 wRC+ ranked 23rd. Conversely 194 PAs LHH vs LHP ranked last, for wRC+  of 80 ranked 18.

in 2023 they applied the Preperation H correctly, in 2024 they bought a case of Preparation G, slathered their whole body in it, and didn’t have the skills on the roster to stop applying the Preparation G, or realize that they would have been better off hitting the Lefty on Lefty rather than PH.

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In 2023 the Twins had 186 PAs as PH ranked 3rd in MLB, they were rewarded a 101 wRC+ in those 186 PAs ranked 6th. Alternatively they had 345 PAs LHH vs LHP ranked 21, for a 62 wRC+ ranked 27.

in 2024 the Twins had 182 PH PAs ranked 3rd for a 57 wRC+ ranked 23rd. Conversely 194 PAs LHH vs LHP ranked last, for wRC+  of 80 ranked 18.

in 2023 they applied the Preperation H correctly, in 2024 they bought a case of Preparation G, slathered their whole body in it, and didn’t have the skills on the roster to stop applying the Preparation G, or realize that they would have been better off hitting the Lefty on Lefty rather than PH.

I remember Cliff Diving once.

Jumped off the cliff and then I changed my mind. 

[Twodogs]

On 11/5/2024 at 5:14 AM, Riverbrian said:

 

[Twodogs]

On 11/5/2024 at 5:14 AM, Riverbrian said:

I know where Five Guys is located in Grand Forks. In a strip mall by Kohl's near Target on the south end of town. Tasty Burger but kind of pricey so I don't go that often but I know where it is if I need Five Guys. 

The Twins need Five Guys... Do they know where to find Five Guys... Can they Afford Five Guys? 

They need Five Guys for the rotation. They need Five Guys for the 40 man with it currently sitting at 35. 

But... those will not be my focus. It is important for all of us to understand that the Twins will need Five Guys who will play most days by not being subject to platoon. 

Last Year... Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro and Santana were the Five Guys. Buxton, Correa and Lewis are often injured. They ranked 7th, 8th and 10th on the team in Plate Appearances. 

Where are these Five Guys currently located for the Twins. These Five guys should be the players who carry your team. They are the everyday Five Guys.

Is Castro talented enough to be one of the five everyday guys? Is Miranda the fifth of the Five Guys? Is it Lee? Will Lee even break camp with the club out of spring training?  

We know that Wallner, Larnach or Julien are not eligible for one of the Five Guy spots due to severe platooning restrictions. And we know it's not the three right handed bats that they will roster to platoon with Wallner, Larnach or Julien. Those spots will go to the Margot and Farmer replacements that the Twins are obligated to sign to keep the platoon integrity intact. 

Can the Twins find Five Guys who can be every day leaders? Can they afford the expensive burger?

If there is one thing that scares me this offseason. It's those Five Guys. 3 players that could carry you but are often injured and an over relied upon Castro and you are still one short. 

 

 

 

 

 

I didn't know Grand Forks had a Five Guys.  I haven't been there in a long time.  But if you want a free agent burger I'd recommend The Kegs on 5th Street north.  Or if you want a beer the Hub had a good burger back in the day.