How the Twins' Defensive Collapse Is Sinking Their Playoff Hopes

[Matthew Taylor]

When analyzing the Minnesota Twins’ recent collapse, much of the blame has fallen on their lineup and bullpen struggles. However, the overlooked culprit has been their defense. Even with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa now back in the lineup, their absences earlier this summer triggered a defensive unraveling the team hasn’t recovered from.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

 

When one thinks about what has plagued the Minnesota Twins in the dog days of this season, a few things immediately come to mind: the bats have gone cold at the worst possible time, and the bullpen has crumbled in late innings. But there's another key area that’s often overlooked—defense. Over the past two months, the Twins' fielding has become a glaring weakness, contributing just as much to their potential playoff collapse as any other issue.

For the first four months of the season, the Twins boasted one of the league’s best defenses. Ranked comfortably in the top third of the MLB, Minnesota seemed to lock down the field behind their starters, turning hits into outs and runs into saves. But in August and September, the gloves fell apart. The team posted a combined -15 Outs Above Average (OAA) during that span, slipping to a lowly 27th in August and 25th in September.

This is a stunning regression for a team that was so strong in the field to begin the year. But why such a steep drop-off?

The simple answer lies in injuries. Defensive stalwarts Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, two Gold Glove-caliber defenders, have both missed significant time over the past couple of months. When healthy, Buxton is a game-changer in center field, covering more ground than almost anyone in baseball. Correa, meanwhile, is a vacuum at shortstop, turning would-be hits into routine outs.

Without them, the Twins were forced to scramble.

In Buxton’s absence, Minnesota has deployed a revolving door of replacements in center field, none of whom come close to matching his elite defensive skill set. Austin Martin, Manuel Margot, and Willi Castro have all tried to fill the void, with Castro taking on most of the load in September. While these players offer their own strengths, defensive consistency hasn’t been one of them, and the drop-off in the outfield has been evident.

Similarly, Correa’s injury woes forced Willi Castro to cover shortstop for most of August. As a utility player, Castro is versatile but isn’t built for an everyday role at one of the most demanding positions on the field. The domino effect saw José Miranda thrown into the hot corner more frequently—and his defense struggled mightily, both because he's not a standout at third base, and even more so because he himself is banged up right now. 

At second base, Edouard Julien has also contributed to the team’s defensive woes. Julien had looked promising when called up earlier in the season, showing major strides at the position and even bolstering the Twins' middle infield. However, his play has taken a sharp decline in recent weeks. From August through September, Julien posted -6 Outs Above Average, a disappointing figure for a player who showed so much potential. His struggles have turned second base into another weak point in the defense, compounding the team’s issues.

Corner outfield has not been safe from defensive miscues, either. With Max Kepler on the injured list, the Twins lost another Gold Glove-caliber defender and have replaced him with Matt Wallner, a fellow left-hander who has a cannon for an arm, but doesn't range as well in right field or manage its carom quite the way Max does.

We’d be remiss not to mention the defensive impact from an unexpected area—pitcher fielding. Last year, Twins' pitchers combined for 7 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). This year, that number has flipped to -8, a drop that’s been quietly costing the team runs. Pitcher defense is tricky to evaluate since it’s a secondary responsibility, but it’s notable that Twins pitchers made big plays last year that they simply aren’t making this season. It's a small but telling part of the defensive puzzle that has broken down across the board.

When we talk about Buxton and Correa, the conversation often centers around their bats—how much their absence hurts the lineup, their offensive production, and the impact of missing those big, clutch hits. But the reality is that their gloves have been just as important, if not more so, to the Twins’ overall success. This team was built on elite run prevention, and much of that was predicated on the reliability of Buxton and Correa at the two most important positions on the diamond.

With both of them out, the Twins have had to shuffle through players who aren’t capable of providing the same level of defensive security. And while the bats have indeed gone silent at times, the missing gloves have hurt just as much, contributing to the slump and leaving the pitching staff with less support than they had earlier in the season.

As the Twins head into the final stretch, teetering on the edge of missing the playoffs entirely, the focus will likely remain on the struggles of the lineup and bullpen. But don’t be fooled—fielding is playing a significant role in this team’s collapse. If Minnesota is going to turn things around and salvage their season, it won’t just be the bats and arms that need to step up. The gloves are going to have to find a way to rebound, too.

 

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[Karbo]

There are very few players that can play great defense moving all over the field. Castro is a rare player in that he can play good defense at several positions, but some other players have been a bit stretched. There is also the fact that this FO has a type they draft, and it doesn't seem defense is one of the top priorities. Also, a lot of rookies will make rookie mistakes. I'll also add the lack of fundamentals being coached today. TK would have a fit. His teams played fundamentally sound.

[UpstateNewYorker]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

There are very few players that can play great defense moving all over the field. Castro is a rare player in that he can play good defense at several positions, but some other players have been a bit stretched. There is also the fact that this FO has a type they draft, and it doesn't seem defense is one of the top priorities. Also, a lot of rookies will make rookie mistakes. I'll also add the lack of fundamentals being coached today. TK would have a fit. His teams played fundamentally sound.

Great points.  Very few of our recent call-ups have been even average defensively.  It does seem like defensive ability is a low priority for the FO, which to me is a glaring problem.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Great points.  Very few of our recent call-ups have been even average defensively.  It does seem like defensive ability is a low priority for the FO, which to me is a glaring problem.

If defense is a low priority then explain why their two big contracts are to Buxton and Correa.

[CRF]

These guys aren't White Sox level, but no doubt there isn't a priority placed on defense. 

[stringer bell]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If defense is a low priority then explain why their two big contracts are to Buxton and Correa.

I would say that middle-of-the-diamond defense is highly regarded by the Twins (and everyone in MLB). Much less so for the corners. Absence due to injuries to Buxton and Correa have shown how valuable their defense is to the current team.

Personally, I don't have a problem with several players moving around if they are able to do that. I would say that Willi has shown he is capable in a few spots and acceptable in a couple more. IMHO, Lee needed all season in St. Paul not only to hone his hitting, but improve his defense and the same is true for Austin Martin defensively--with work he could/should be a decent left fielder and acceptable in center, but I don't think he got the reps to be comfortable and it showed this year. 

Another defensive disappointment has been Margot, who hasn't been able to adjust to being much less speedy and athletic than he was prior to his leg injuries. If ever someone was an "old 29" it is Margot. 

Primary third basemen Lewis and Miranda left something to be desired. I think Miranda has worked hard at third and is adequate, but he doesn't have first rate defensive tools and Lewis needs time at third (or whatever position he ends up at) and specific work on footwork and throwing if he continues to be a third baseman.

[USAFChief]

1. Poor defense and sloppy fundamentals should be expected when "Anybody can play anywhere" is a core philosophy. 

2. Related to above: Except for catcher, they don't replace injured players with someone who plays the same position, even up the middle. When a SS goes down, do they call up and play a capable SS? No. They don't. 

3. Please don't tell me they care about defense when they don't teach anyone a position in the minors. Franchise cornerstone Royce Lewis has been in this organization for about 30 years now and there's STILL conversation daily here about where he should be playing. 

 

In short, defense isn't a priority, and nobody should be surprised when they dont get a lot of it.

 

 

 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If defense is a low priority then explain why their two big contracts are to Buxton and Correa.

We clearly draft a high percentage of bat first players. When we play in house money ball, we end up with young guys where are streaky…. Still way better than the type of organization we were a decade ago. 

[LambchoP]

You rely on a bunch of rookies, you get rookie mistakes. If we can keep our starters healthy, and playing the same position day after day, we should be fine. Aside from Castro, they need to designate everyone a single position, let them learn it and stick there. Speaking of defense, how do we not bring up Santana? Dude is amazing over there at first and of he doesn't get his gold glove it's a travesty. His bat may leave something to be desired, especially lately. But the runs he has saved us with some of those plays are very important. I wouldn't mind signing him for another year if we can get him cheap enough. I'd rather see a middle of the lineup true power hitter signed, but it's not going to happen.

[terrydactyls]

If defense were valued, Kiersey, Jr. would have been called up as soon as Buxton sniffled or limped.  His defense may not match Buxton, but he would be damn close.  Plus, he's having a team record setting offensive year.  Instead, the Twins used Margot, Castro, and Martin.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If defense were valued, Kiersey, Jr. would have been called up as soon as Buxton sniffled or limped.  His defense may not match Buxton, but he would be damn close.  Plus, he's having a team record setting offensive year.  Instead, the Twins used Margot, Castro, and Martin.

Those "team records" Keirsey Jr set on offense are based on 4 seasons of Saints baseball. The record book goes back to 2021 when they entered AAA.

This org doesn't draft "bat first" players. Their top 5 picks this year were SS, SS, 3B, LHP, C. Last year was Walker Jenkins (is anybody upset about that pick?!), Soto, Keaschall, Winokur. 2022 was Lee, Prielipp, Schobel, Morris and Ben Ross. The only "bat first" player on that list is Walker Jenkins and it would be dumb to pick someone else in that situation.

If you want to complain about their minor league defensive development then I think there are a lot of valid criticisms. They keep way too many players at positions they are unlikely to master for way too long. Austin Martin shouldn't be working on his jumps in the outfield at age 25. They wasted a year of his development playing him at SS when everyone said he wasn't going to be a SS.

[ashbury]

Correa looks like his usual self at shortstop, which is to say state-of-the-art-reliable.  But Buxton is only a fraction of himself defensively, unable and unwilling to lay out for difficult chances lest he tweak the hip (or whatever the risk is).  He goes back to the wall just fine, but since his return I recall at least two dying-quail liners that he's allowed to drop in front of him when I felt confident that the Buxton of years past would have grabbed them.

So even having our guys back doesn't mean it's all the same.  We've all said that Byron needed to learn to protect his body, but this is the cost; he's just another center fielder at the moment.

[Twins GFP]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

There are very few players that can play great defense moving all over the field. Castro is a rare player in that he can play good defense at several positions, but some other players have been a bit stretched. There is also the fact that this FO has a type they draft, and it doesn't seem defense is one of the top priorities. Also, a lot of rookies will make rookie mistakes. I'll also add the lack of fundamentals being coached today. TK would have a fit. His teams played fundamentally sound.

The saying goes:

Jack of all trades, master of none.

The positive is positional flexibility.  The negative is the lack of defensive quality.  The Twins currently prefer the former over the latter.  This issue alone may be the strongest reason to bring Carlos Santana back next year.

[ewen21]

In the last thirty days only two teams have scored less runs than our team.  Even if the defense was flawless we won’t be winning meaningful games if we are not going to score runs.

 

End of story.

[terrydactyls]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Those "team records" Keirsey Jr set on offense are based on 4 seasons of Saints baseball. The record book goes back to 2021 when they entered AAA.

This org doesn't draft "bat first" players. Their top 5 picks this year were SS, SS, 3B, LHP, C. Last year was Walker Jenkins (is anybody upset about that pick?!), Soto, Keaschall, Winokur. 2022 was Lee, Prielipp, Schobel, Morris and Ben Ross. The only "bat first" player on that list is Walker Jenkins and it would be dumb to pick someone else in that situation.

If you want to complain about their minor league defensive development then I think there are a lot of valid criticisms. They keep way too many players at positions they are unlikely to master for way too long. Austin Martin shouldn't be working on his jumps in the outfield at age 25. They wasted a year of his development playing him at SS when everyone said he wasn't going to be a SS.

They are still team records, aren't they?

The next two paragraphs have nothing to do with my comment, so I'll leave them alone.

[thelanges5]

Not excelling in any part of the game for the past 30 days. I heard Gleeman say “they’re firing on no cylinders”

7 games left - a couple guys have to start carrying this team or they won’t make it. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

4 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Not excelling in any part of the game for the past 30 days. I heard Gleeman say “they’re firing on no cylinders”

7 games left - a couple guys have to start carrying this team or they won’t make it. 

And I'm just not seeing that happening, unfortunately. 

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We clearly draft a high percentage of bat first players.

That says it all.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, ashbury said:

We've all said that Byron needed to learn to protect his body, but this is the cost; he's just another center fielder at the moment.

Sadly, I think that is exactly what has happened this season.

[Doctor Wu]

1 minute ago, Doctor Wu said:

That says it all.

And as another poster suggested, even the lack of productivity from the "bat first" players is part of the problem too. 

[Riverbrian]

Can range metrics be trusted in a small sample? 

How many routine plays compared to rangy plays occurred for each individual during this smaller sample? 

Just asking for a friend. 

[Finfineman]

Its defense.  Its also starting Mathews, Festa and the others who have about three wins and ten losses.  Ive been saying it all year with soooooo many dissenters and negative replies.  They should have signed Sonny Gray.  His 13 wins with a 71-win team last year would have translated to the Twins winning the division and/or being solidly in a wild card position.  Dont tell me he wanted to leave.  That has been proven not true.  The Twins didnt try.  Good teams keep their good players.  The Twins revenue according to Forbes was 342 million in 2023.  Their payroll was 156 million.  That is almost a 200-million-dollar difference.  The Pohlads are worth about four billion.  Are you telling me they couldnt find 25 million to pay Gray or another Ace?  They paid themselves...... very well thank you........once again.  The bottom line is they lined their pockets and cheaped out......on us.......the fans.