The Twins' Signature Offensive Skill Disappeared Three Weeks Ago. It's Why They're Fading.

[Matthew Trueblood]

What do you get when you defuse a bomba squad? As it turns out, they bomb in a different way, and hardly feel like a squad.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Last week, I wrote about the troubling signs around plate discipline for the weary, young, injury-depleted Twins. Too many players, especially some of the youngsters who felt the heavy burden of trying to carry an offense that had lost its dynamic leaders, started expanding their strike zones and flailing away at pitches they couldn't handle.

That was especially concerning, because it fits so nicely with the best narrative we have to explain this team's crumbling play: they're tired. Studies prove the impact of fatigue on plate discipline, and the guys who aren't playing hurt on this team are playing dead tired. The silver lining, though, is that plate discipline was never this team's identity, per se. Even when they're going well, the Twins aren't the most disciplined team in baseball. The Yankees and Brewers excel in that department. The Cubs emphasize it. The Twins aren't about that, to the same extent. They're about pull power, which means taking a certain measure of aggressiveness to the plate.

Now, though, comes the crushing news: It turns out that the silver lining was just another cloud, maybe darker and more dangerous than the first one, gathering on the horizon. The Twins live or die by pulling the ball hard in the air. It's how they set the single-season team record for home runs in 2019. It's why they were dubbed the Bomba Squad that year, and why I created what I called Bomba Rate in late 2022: the frequency with which a player lifts the ball to their pull field.

At their best, the Twins hit the ball hard in the air to their pull field considerably more often than an average team. Even if they strike out often in the process, they can get to plenty of offense, because they create the most chances for quick scoring of any team in the league. Batted balls at an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour or greater and with a launch angle higher than 10 degrees hit to the pull field result in extra-base hits almost half the time. The league slugs 1.952 when they make that kind of contact.

Here's a chart showing the frequency with which teams produce exit velocities of 100 MPH or greater (to any field, at any trajectory) and that with which they produce hard-hit air balls to the pull field, each on a per-plate appearance basis, by month. I've highlighted the Twins, and added arrows to show the passage of time, so the first Twins logo is for April and the one with the final arrow pointing to it is September.

That's very stark. We all knew the team was struggling to hit the ball hard in April, but even then, they were above the league average in pulling the ball hard, in the air. In May and June, they were hammering the ball, although not creating potential bombas as often as they sometimes do. In July, they ran into trouble generating raw exit velocities, but the hard, pulled flies only ticked up. August saw it all come together: the air raid was on. They generated plenty of hard contact in general, and they specifically hit a lot of those long, promising flies--even though they didn't enjoy quite the level of results they deserved.

September, by contrast, is a disaster for this team. Their dip from just under 10% of plate appearances ending in hard-hit, pulled flies to 6.6% means that, in the 650 trips to the plate they've accrued so far this month, they've hit 21 fewer potential bombas than they would have if they sustained their August pace. That's worth anywhere from 15 to 30 runs, based on situations, spread over 18 games. The Twins' September record would almost certainly be .500, and might be better than that, if they were still driving the ball to the pull field the way they did just one month earlier.

In June and July, Royce Lewis pulled a hard fly ball in just over 14% of his plate appearances. In September, that number is 3.4%. José Miranda's season mark was 10.4% before the month began; it's down to 4.1% in September. Since coming back up from St. Paul in early July, Matt Wallner had run a rate of nearly 15.8%, hitting a ball with an even chance to be an extra-base hit about every sixth plate appearance. Since Sept. 1, he's done so 4.9% of the time.

This is worse news than eroding plate discipline, although perhaps it's also easier to act on. If the Twins are healthy enough to execute something close their best swings, maybe a collective approach change--not to grind at-bats harder or be more patient, but to simply be more opportunistic and in touch with their best selves--could get them back to their slugging ways. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are back, and while no one is pretending they're as fresh and rested as in spring training, the team did handle them carefully. As a result, they've each made meaningful, positive contributions at the plate already. They can bring back an injection of this offensive identity, just by keeping up what they've shown they can do over the last week.

It needs to happen fast, though. For the month, the Twins are slugging .356. Some teams can win, at least enough to avail themselves of the cushion the team gave itself throughout the summer, with a .356 slugging average. The Twins aren't such a team. They're not built for this. They will live or die based on whether they can drive the ball in the air to their pull fields, because that's how they score runs and their pitching staff is too thin to win a string of 2-1 and 3-2 games. The missing drives have already hurt them badly. To stop the collapse from becoming fatal, they have to erase that deficit and get back to hitting bombas.

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[mikelink45]

And Cleveland continues to dink and dunk and we write about how poorly hit their balls are and yet they are singles and they drive in runs and they get on base. You can have your advanced metrics and all the hard hit balls you want. Just get on base. 

[JCT66]

This was a really insightful article.  That graph really provides a clear picture of their problem at the plate.  I'm just not sure what is driving the September decline.  Given the injuries and amount of IL time for so many of our players you would think if anything they should be less fatigued than other teams.

[PDX Twin]

11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

And Cleveland continues to dink and dunk and we write about how poorly hit their balls are and yet they are singles and they drive in runs and they get on base. You can have your advanced metrics and all the hard hit balls you want. Just get on base. 

I'd add: ... and move runners over and get hits with runners in scoring position.

And perhaps even play defense!

[Rosterman]

Willie Castro, for all his greatness, has struck out nearing 150 times. He needs to bunt more.

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, Rosterman said:

Willie Castro, for all his greatness, has struck out nearing 150 times. He needs to bunt more.

Have you seen him try to bunt?

[USAFChief]

They're "tired?"

Why would the Twins be tired? Any more than any other team?

Hell, too many days off is more of a problem. 

[BH67]

43 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

And Cleveland continues to dink and dunk and we write about how poorly hit their balls are and yet they are singles and they drive in runs and they get on base. You can have your advanced metrics and all the hard hit balls you want. Just get on base. 

There's the rub: the Falvine offensive approach is not the piranha method. When players are healthy, this pays huge dividends. When not, nine players trained differently do not immediately transform into piranha.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They're "tired?"

Why would the Twins be tired? Any more than any other team?

Hell, too many days off is more of a problem. 

I agree. The Rocco Baldelli "rest and rehab" approach for players who've accidentally played more than 2 games in a row feels counterproductive. Routine usually keeps people healthy.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Great article. While I would love to see this team be more versatile and execute small ball better, they just don't seem to have the guys to do that. There really isn't anybody on the roster that "handles the bat well" as we used to say by hitting behind the runner, bunting well, singles to the opposite field, etc., except maybe Correa. Maybe in time some of the younger guys will get more versatile offensively but it's hard to see Wallner, Lewis, Larnach or Jeffers doing that in the next 10 days. They just haven't developed that skill. I don't think it's a coaching issue, I think it's a "who they are as a player at this stage of their careers" issue. The one versatile bat we had was Martin but he had zero power and is now in St. Paul. 

This team rises and falls on the home run. The poster is right, we don't have the pitching to grind out 3-2 or 2-1 games against good competition. The Cleveland series was a great example of that deficiency. Any hope of a decent last 9 games comes down to power production from guys like Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers, and Correa. I hate to be a downer but that last playoff spot is Detroit's unless they hit a slump. This Twins team just isn't good enough to seize the spot themselves.     

[Patzky]

It's a lot easier to blame one person, Alcala or Rocco or Thielbar or Zebby, than to point fingers at an entire group ("The Offense") because we all love a scapegoat. Really if the bats did anything at all, anything, we wouldn't even be having this conversation after the Cleveland series. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They're "tired?"

Why would the Twins be tired? Any more than any other team?

Hell, too many days off is more of a problem. 

This.

The excuses being trotted out for this team are kind of mind boggling.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

And Cleveland continues to dink and dunk and we write about how poorly hit their balls are and yet they are singles and they drive in runs and they get on base. You can have your advanced metrics and all the hard hit balls you want. Just get on base. 

Cleveland plays baseball because they built a baseball team. TC plays HRball with a team that cant hit HRs.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'd love to pick the brain of the geniuses that decided the Twins were going to try to hit homeruns like the 1927 Yankees...without having a legitimate HR hitter on the roster.

[karcherd]

20 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Great article. While I would love to see this team be more versatile and execute small ball better, they just don't seem to have the guys to do that. There really isn't anybody on the roster that "handles the bat well" as we used to say by hitting behind the runner, bunting well, singles to the opposite field, etc., except maybe Correa. Maybe in time some of the younger guys will get more versatile offensively but it's hard to see Wallner, Lewis, Larnach or Jeffers doing that in the next 10 days. They just haven't developed that skill. I don't think it's a coaching issue, I think it's a "who they are as a player at this stage of their careers" issue. The one versatile bat we had was Martin but he had zero power and is now in St. Paul. 

This team rises and falls on the home run. The poster is right, we don't have the pitching to grind out 3-2 or 2-1 games against good competition. The Cleveland series was a great example of that deficiency. Any hope of a decent last 9 games comes down to power production from guys like Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Jeffers, and Correa. I hate to be a downer but that last playoff spot is Detroit's unless they hit a slump. This Twins team just isn't good enough to seize the spot themselves.     

It is a coaching and organizational issue.  They are retooling the swings in the minor leagues to this approach.  Both Martin and Lee have stated they went back to their original swing at St. Paul and had more success.  Lewis has talked about it at the major league level as well.  

They keep drafting college sluggers because this is the approach they want.  When it works, it produces a lot of runs.  The problem is, it is feast or famine and that rears its ugly head in a short series like the playoffs against better pitching.    The Falvine philosophy is not going to produce a consistent winner without playing more fundamentally sound and just not swing for the fences.

[OvertheHill]

Count me in the group of fans that thinks the 2019 Bomba thing is continuing to drag this organization down into boring, unsustainable gameplay. The Cleveland series felt like we were getting a masterclass in how ownership, payroll, organizational philosophy, roster construction, lineup management, in-game decisions and approaches at the plate can all come together to make for highly entertaining and successful baseball. Sadly I don’t see these elements working here now or in the immediate future. 

[thelanges5]

I understand the philosophy and know that home runs help in the postseason. There has to be some level of situational hitting though. Yesterday’s bases loaded one man out - all we needed was a hit .

KC, Det, Cle are in the top 10 for RISP. Twins are 17th. 

[jkcarew]

For those scoring at home…

Cleveland….not tired

Detroit…were tired, now not tired

Kansas City…starting to get tired

Minnesota…battling a special and unique type of fatigue that fans just can’t understand (it’s particularly debilitating when facing average or better pitching)

Chicago White Sox…completely exhausted since late March.

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, karcherd said:

It is a coaching and organizational issue.  They are retooling the swings in the minor leagues to this approach.  Both Martin and Lee have stated they went back to their original swing at St. Paul and had more success.  Lewis has talked about it at the major league level as well.  

They keep drafting college sluggers because this is the approach they want.  When it works, it produces a lot of runs.  The problem is, it is feast or famine and that rears its ugly head in a short series like the playoffs against better pitching.    The Falvine philosophy is not going to produce a consistent winner without playing more fundamentally sound and just not swing for the fences.

It worked so well with David Ortiz. What ever happened to that guy...

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

They're "tired?"

Why would the Twins be tired? Any more than any other team?

Hell, too many days off is more of a problem. 

 

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I agree. The Rocco Baldelli "rest and rehab" approach for players who've accidentally played more than 2 games in a row feels counterproductive. Routine usually keeps people healthy.

I would be fascinated to hear what the conversations between the training/medical staffs and the FO/manager are like.

They changed training staffs after 2022 when everyone got hurt. But they don't seem to have changed their strategies of scheduled off days, etc. since that change. Do both training/medical staffs have the same philosophy for maintaining health, or does the FO have some numbers they think show the extra off days help, or does Rocco just have a gut feeling that extra off days will help? What is the driving force behind a strategy that appears to have been bridged over 2 separate training/medical staffs? I really hope it's medical professionals making these decisions, but I could be pretty easily convinced it's the FO nerds or Rocco. (nerds is not a derogatory term, I am a nerd)

[karcherd]

5 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

It worked so well with David Ortiz. What ever happened to that guy...

No two hitters are the same, you may need to tweak their approach, but when you change it completely and don't get the results you desire, that is expected.  The Twins are trying to make everyone one size fits all and that doesn't work.

[karcherd]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I would be fascinated to hear what the conversations between the training/medical staffs and the FO/manager are like.

They changed training staffs after 2022 when everyone got hurt. But they don't seem to have changed their strategies of scheduled off days, etc. since that change. Do both training/medical staffs have the same philosophy for maintaining health, or does the FO have some numbers they think show the extra off days help, or does Rocco just have a gut feeling that extra off days will help? What is the driving force behind a strategy that appears to have been bridged over 2 separate training/medical staffs? I really hope it's medical professionals making these decisions, but I could be pretty easily convinced it's the FO nerds or Rocco. (nerds is not a derogatory term, I am a nerd)

I believe it is a front office approach and they find staff that agrees with their approach.  I still remember when Arraez basically burped and they took him out of the game saying it was precautionary.

[Karbo]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I would be fascinated to hear what the conversations between the training/medical staffs and the FO/manager are like.

They changed training staffs after 2022 when everyone got hurt. But they don't seem to have changed their strategies of scheduled off days, etc. since that change. Do both training/medical staffs have the same philosophy for maintaining health, or does the FO have some numbers they think show the extra off days help, or does Rocco just have a gut feeling that extra off days will help? What is the driving force behind a strategy that appears to have been bridged over 2 separate training/medical staffs? I really hope it's medical professionals making these decisions, but I could be pretty easily convinced it's the FO nerds or Rocco. (nerds is not a derogatory term, I am a nerd)

maybe because Rocco was injured a lot when he played?

[Karbo]

If you live by the bomba, you die by the bomba. When they were winning tou saw guys willing to go to the opposite field and worked. Other teams are staying away from the Twins hitters so take those outer half pitches and drive them oppo for hits. Now I watch, so many are practically bailing to try and pull the ball.

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Karbo said:

maybe because Rocco was injured a lot when he played?

I find that basically impossible to believe, but I guess it isn't technically impossible. If he's managing a certain way because he has a rare disorder he's a worse manager than anyone has ever claimed him to be. He had a very specific reason why he wasn't able to play full seasons which is very different than any injury concerns his players have.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

They're "tired?"

Why would the Twins be tired? Any more than any other team?

Hell, too many days off is more of a problem. 

Two Twins have played more than 122 games and one is a first baseball. Margot has played in 122 but as we know he didn't start at least 29 of those games.

[TwinsDr2021]

The Twins or the front office always seem to be reactive to what is going on. They were slow to stolen base (weight have they did this yet), slow to the hey certain starters maybe should an extra batter or 3, because it reduces the work load on the bullpen. Hey the other team is giving us a free base hit with the shift, but no don't do that because there is somewhere between 10 - 20 % this guy could get a double. I have watched more baseball on TV this year than ever and it just seems the Twins are kind of playing a different game, plus I have never heard so many TV guys from the other team flat out make fun of the other team like they have with the Twins. I believe it was the Baltimore guys actually laughing when the Twins pinch hit for the lead off hitter and 3rd batter by the 5th inning, asking shouldn't those be your best players and you are pinch hitting for them. Diamondback announcers were laughing about a time where the Twins had a guy on first and they said well with the Twins it is pretty easy you don't have to worry about bunting, stealing, hit and run, or  going the other way just don't give them a meat ball because they will hit a homer. And the next pitch was a double play and they giggled and said - "like we said"

[Dave Borton]

3 hours ago, JCT66 said:

This was a really insightful article.  That graph really provides a clear picture of their problem at the plate.  ...

 

Quote

Last week, I wrote about the troubling signs around plate discipline for the weary, young, injury-depleted Twins. 

I am not convinced of anything by the chart. I understand the logic but can't help understanding how 3 young men, in prime age, are dead tired after an average of 115 games among them between MiLB and MLB.

[S Bart]

Excellent article on the blame situation is attached.

 

Assigning Blame for the Twins’ Collapse (msn.com)

[OvertheHill]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

This.

The excuses being trotted out for this team are kind of mind boggling.

The “they’re tired” thing is just so hard for the average fan to have to listen to. Considering the resources available to these relatively young men, who in many ways are considered “world class” athletes, is mind boggling to normal people. The training facilities, professional dietitians, mental health specialists, medical professionals etc. at their disposal is almost beyond my comprehension. If they are truly tired, it’s on them and/or the organization. Not the fans.