The Twins Have an Outs at the Plate Problem. Is It a Third-Base Coaching Problem?

[Eric Blonigen]

In Sunday’s must-win game against the Royals, Tommy Watkins made a questionable send call that led to an out at home in the top of the first inning. The Twins went on to be shut out. In a vacuum, this sort of play happens. However, this is the fifth time in the past 15 games that Watkins has made a questionable decision that cost the Twins. It’s fair to ask: do the Twins need a different third-base coach?

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-Imagn Images

To be clear, coaches are a lot like umpires: you only really notice them when they do something you disagree with. Coaching is a thankless job, with thousands of fans judging every decision harshly. If you were to ask every fan base their opinions of their team’s third-base coach, you would probably learn that all 30 of them are inept. Spoiler: they aren’t.

Coaching is also a difficult job. A third-base coach, among their other duties, need to weigh all of the following in real time: the ball’s exit velocity and trajectory; the runner’s location, general speed capabilities, current pace, health and injury status; the fielder’s arm, angle, and likelihood of hitting a cutoff man; and game flow and the urgency to score. If that sounds like a lot, that’s because it is. Adding to the challenge is the fact that all those factors must be calculated in just a couple seconds, and a decision to send or hold needs to be clearly communicated by the time the runner is approaching third base.

All that said, let’s look at a few examples of questionable sends over the past 15 games and see what conclusions we can draw.

9/8/24
In the top of the 1st inning, Trevor Larnach batted, with José Miranda on first and one out. Larnach smacked a double off the right-field wall, and Miranda took off. Tommy Watkins sent him home, and a superb relay from Hunter Renfroe and Maikel García had Miranda out at home by several feet.

9/6/24
Almost the same situation, also against the Royals. This time, in the top of the fourth with the Twins down 1-0, Kyle Farmer was on first when Austin Martin ripped a two-out double into left field. Farmer was off with contact, but Tommy Pham hit his cutoff man, Bobby Witt Jr., who made a good throw. Farmer was out at the plate. Again, the Twins would fail to score, and would lose the game.

8/28/24
In this game against the Braves, in the 6th inning, Manuel Margot hit a leadoff double with the Twins down 1-0. Ryan Jeffers singled to right fielder Jorge Soler. Watkins sent Margot, who was out at home on the throw. The send carried a -10.4% WPA, given the way it played out, and the Twins lost 5-1.

8/27/24
In the 4th inning, down two runs to Atlanta, Max Kepler was on first with one out. Carlos Santana doubled to right field and as Kepler approached third, Watkins sent Kepler, then held him, then sent him again, only to hold him for a final time. In this situation, Watkins observed how slowly Kepler was running, and the final hold was the right call. However, the unclear communication (combined with Kepler's failures of hustle and/or health) eliminated any chance of the run scoring. The Twins went on to lose 8-6.

8/20/24
Here, Royce Lewis batted with the bases loaded, nobody out, and with a 2-1 lead over the Padres. He hit a sac fly, scoring Kepler. Jurickson Profar threw off-target to Manny Machado at third, and the ball skipped nearly to the catcher. Despite this, Watkins sent Austin Martin, as well, and he was out by 15 feet. This changed the complexion of the inning, as Carlos Santana batted with one on and two outs instead of two on and one out. Again, the Twins would go on to lose, 7-5.

Look, any one of these examples typify the sorts of 50-50 plays every team will be on the losing end of multiple times throughout any season. There were mitigating circumstances in a few of them. The play above was right in front of Martin, too; players don't always need a third-base coach at all when deciding whether to head home.

However, five instances of questionable send calls over 15 games suggest there may be an actual problem. The Twins are not a fast team, so is it possible that Watkins is overestimating players' sprint speeds? Is he scuffling just like the players, trying too hard to scratch across a single run? Is Rocco Baldelli providing a direction to be overly aggressive with send calls? Has the coin landed on tails in each of these attempts, and bad luck is to blame? Is something else the culprit? Is this stretch of bad overall play casting undue focus on Watkins's send decisions? Or, is he legitimately struggling to execute this part of his role?

There aren’t any publicly available statistics on the impact of send or hold calls, and it’s possible that different decisions wouldn’t have changed the outcome of these games. However, this late in the season, every variable that can lead to wins must be examined--even if it's shaking up the coaching staff.

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What do you think? Should the Twins consider a coaching change this offseason or even sooner? Or is this much ado about nothing? Comment below to start the discussion!

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[Craig Arko]

Possibly. None of these players is ever going to be confused with Usain Bolt, either.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Some of these articles should show the real author as Captain Obvious.

I would be interested to see stats on this, but I bet Watkins is top 3 in MLB in getting runners thrown out.  He has been atrocious for years.  The Kepler one from a few weeks ago (go, stop, go) pretty much sums it up.

[Shaitan]

"There aren’t any publicly available statistics on the impact of send or hold calls".

I'm certainly not disputing the author, but it's surprising that this info isn't tracked, even in an unofficial capacity like NFL tackles or something.

 

[Karbo]

A good 3rd base coach knows the fielders arm strength an accuracy, and the runners speed and endurance. I like an aggressive coach who sees a 50% chance and sends the runner, knowing it will take a perfect throw, relay, and tag to get the runner at home. But, some of these guys are getting thrown out by several feet. That says he shouldn't have been sent. Getting thrown out by a foot or less is a good send in IMO.

[MinnInPa]

way too many baserunning blunders by the players themselves this year..many have killed big innings ...and no 5 run lead is safe with our bullpenn. 

[Irishman]

I am surprised Rocco didn’t fire Watkins.  

[JD-TWINS]

25 minutes ago, Irishman said:

I am surprised Rocco didn’t fire Watkins.  

I think that there will be a move this offseason with Watkins, possibly motivated by some people in the F.O………Watkins is apparently a great guy but he’s getting guys thrown out by big margins - not bang, bang plays!! He seems mentally locked up for whatever reason….. judgment is not good.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I like an aggressive coach who sees a 50% chance and sends the runner, knowing it will take a perfect throw, relay, and tag to get the runner at home.

Depends on how many outs there are in the inning. I don't like when they make the first out at home on a 50% chance send. With two outs that's a good call.

[Trov]

I think part of the issue has been the overall struggle with driving runs in at all.  That may be playing into the decision to take greater risks on the bases hoping that the throws are off a little, or a lot, to score the run.  I mean, if you do not send the runner and they do not score because of strike out or failed at-bats after, we would most likely be saying, maybe they should have been sent there. 

I think overall this is just a run of sends that did not work out.  If you go back you may see plenty of sends that worked out in other games.  I think with these few there was times that runner clearly should not have been sent and they were just in a short period of time. 

[LambchoP]

I tend to like aggressive sends,but it has to be done smart. Why risk it with only one out, or none at all. Plus you only send your faster guys in these situations. If it's going to be close, you probably should not send your slowest guys. I could see Watkins getting moved back to first base coach next year if he's still here. Hopefully Twins will start scoring runs again and we won't have to make these tough decisions trying to desperately scrape a run together.

[Blyleven2011]

Watkins has been getting runners thrown our at home for years , my observation of his sending runners is , he sends the slow a foot  and holds the fast runner far to often ...

Slow a foot runner is out by fifteen feet usually  ...

Close but no cigar , Watkins has had job security but the time has come to change up some of the coaches especially since our window of opportunity  is open as contenders ...

[saviking]

2 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Watkins has been getting runners thrown our at home for years , my observation of his sending runners is , he sends the slow a foot  and holds the fast runner far to often ...

Slow a foot runner is out by fifteen feet usually  ...

Close but no cigar , Watkins has had job security but the time has come to change up some of the coaches especially since our window of opportunity  is open as contenders ...

We've had a third base coaching problem for years. Just now noticing. And when you are having a hard time manufacturing runs it'd tempting tobsend them home with crossed fingers and hopes of a bad throw 

[jccracraft]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Some of these articles should show the real author as Captain Obvious.

I would be interested to see stats on this, but I bet Watkins is top 3 in MLB in getting runners thrown out.  He has been atrocious for years.  The Kepler one from a few weeks ago (go, stop, go) pretty much sums it up.

He should have sent Kepler IMO. Agree, he's been bad for years. I went to a game at Yankee Stadium a couple years back where he sent a guy with no outs who was thrown out. I question whether he is able to take into consideration the multiple scenarios.

[Jocko87]

And here I thought this was going to be a watched third strike article. Huh.

I generally support aggressive sends, especially for a team that doesn't attempt to manufacture runs but several times I see Watkins swing his arm as a Miranda turns the corner and it's suddenly uphill to home.

I'm almost as curious about why everyone seems sluggish rounding third even when they are obviously hustling.  Uphill, both ways.

[AKTwinsFan]

I think he should be replaced. He will send a runner from 2nd home while a ball is hit directly at an outfielder. He's supposed to stop them if he sees something. But he just sends them into the fray. Usually ending up costing them additional runs.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Depends on how many outs there are in the inning. I don't like when they make the first out at home on a 50% chance send. With two outs that's a good call.

I just think if you keep the pressure on the other team they will start to press and even rush, which can lead to mistakes.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I just think if you keep the pressure on the other team they will start to press and even rush, which can lead to mistakes.

A runner on third with no outs puts pressure on a team.

[Linus]

Obviously this philosophy has been researched and approved by the FO.  My question is this: Sabermetrics has basically concluded that the overall goal on offense is to avoid making outs. You only get 27 of them so they are valuable to avoid. How does this square with such an aggressive send philosophy?  You could make the argument that making an out at home plate is particularly hurtful to the offenses chances. 

[mrcharlie]

Outs at home plate are hard to see.  Watkins runs guys into outs at third often too.  Who can count how many times Miranda has run into outs on the bases?  He is not the only one but more often than not...so is he ignoring the coaches?  I do prefer mistakes of aggression vs passive play, but they need to better pick those spots to be aggressive.

I would hope Rocco did include his coaches in the "unprofessional" approach to the KC series.

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

A good 3rd base coach knows the fielders arm strength an accuracy, and the runners speed and endurance. I like an aggressive coach who sees a 50% chance and sends the runner, knowing it will take a perfect throw, relay, and tag to get the runner at home. But, some of these guys are getting thrown out by several feet. That says he shouldn't have been sent. Getting thrown out by a foot or less is a good send in IMO.

I think this is the issue: we're seeing too many guys get thrown out where the play isn't close. If it was a bunch of close plays and the ball gets there just in time or it was a perfect strike or a great tag or something...that's one thing. Even if all of them happen to go against the team then you're talking about great plays by the other team or bad luck and it's ok.

but it's not just one or two memorable ones where the guy is out easily. There's a whole litany at this point. Maybe it means that the players need to know when to take the foot off the gas earlier coming around second knowing they won't have enough in the tank to make it home...but it sure feels like Watkins needs to have better judgment and be a little more conservative in sending our fairly slow and oft-injured roster.

[Western SD Fan]

When Cory Provus discusses how Hunter Renfroe is in RF because of his cannon arm and third base coaches don’t run on Wallner tells me that Watkins should have the same information. It’s all what Waktins does with that information in sending the runners.