The Twins Have an Outs at the Plate Problem. Is It a Third-Base Coaching Problem?

Some of these articles should show the real author as Captain Obvious.

I would be interested to see stats on this, but I bet Watkins is top 3 in MLB in getting runners thrown out.  He has been atrocious for years.  The Kepler one from a few weeks ago (go, stop, go) pretty much sums it up.

"There aren’t any publicly available statistics on the impact of send or hold calls".

I'm certainly not disputing the author, but it's surprising that this info isn't tracked, even in an unofficial capacity like NFL tackles or something.

way too many baserunning blunders by the players themselves this year..many have killed big innings ...and no 5 run lead is safe with our bullpenn. 

I am surprised Rocco didn’t fire Watkins.  

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I like an aggressive coach who sees a 50% chance and sends the runner, knowing it will take a perfect throw, relay, and tag to get the runner at home.

Depends on how many outs there are in the inning. I don't like when they make the first out at home on a 50% chance send. With two outs that's a good call.

I think part of the issue has been the overall struggle with driving runs in at all.  That may be playing into the decision to take greater risks on the bases hoping that the throws are off a little, or a lot, to score the run.  I mean, if you do not send the runner and they do not score because of strike out or failed at-bats after, we would most likely be saying, maybe they should have been sent there. 

I think overall this is just a run of sends that did not work out.  If you go back you may see plenty of sends that worked out in other games.  I think with these few there was times that runner clearly should not have been sent and they were just in a short period of time. 

I tend to like aggressive sends,but it has to be done smart. Why risk it with only one out, or none at all. Plus you only send your faster guys in these situations. If it's going to be close, you probably should not send your slowest guys. I could see Watkins getting moved back to first base coach next year if he's still here. Hopefully Twins will start scoring runs again and we won't have to make these tough decisions trying to desperately scrape a run together.

Watkins has been getting runners thrown our at home for years , my observation of his sending runners is , he sends the slow a foot  and holds the fast runner far to often ...

Slow a foot runner is out by fifteen feet usually  ...

Close but no cigar , Watkins has had job security but the time has come to change up some of the coaches especially since our window of opportunity  is open as contenders ...

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Some of these articles should show the real author as Captain Obvious.

I would be interested to see stats on this, but I bet Watkins is top 3 in MLB in getting runners thrown out.  He has been atrocious for years.  The Kepler one from a few weeks ago (go, stop, go) pretty much sums it up.

He should have sent Kepler IMO. Agree, he's been bad for years. I went to a game at Yankee Stadium a couple years back where he sent a guy with no outs who was thrown out. I question whether he is able to take into consideration the multiple scenarios.

I think he should be replaced. He will send a runner from 2nd home while a ball is hit directly at an outfielder. He's supposed to stop them if he sees something. But he just sends them into the fray. Usually ending up costing them additional runs.

5 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I just think if you keep the pressure on the other team they will start to press and even rush, which can lead to mistakes.

A runner on third with no outs puts pressure on a team.

Obviously this philosophy has been researched and approved by the FO.  My question is this: Sabermetrics has basically concluded that the overall goal on offense is to avoid making outs. You only get 27 of them so they are valuable to avoid. How does this square with such an aggressive send philosophy?  You could make the argument that making an out at home plate is particularly hurtful to the offenses chances. 

Outs at home plate are hard to see.  Watkins runs guys into outs at third often too.  Who can count how many times Miranda has run into outs on the bases?  He is not the only one but more often than not...so is he ignoring the coaches?  I do prefer mistakes of aggression vs passive play, but they need to better pick those spots to be aggressive.

I would hope Rocco did include his coaches in the "unprofessional" approach to the KC series.

9 hours ago, Karbo said:

A good 3rd base coach knows the fielders arm strength an accuracy, and the runners speed and endurance. I like an aggressive coach who sees a 50% chance and sends the runner, knowing it will take a perfect throw, relay, and tag to get the runner at home. But, some of these guys are getting thrown out by several feet. That says he shouldn't have been sent. Getting thrown out by a foot or less is a good send in IMO.

I think this is the issue: we're seeing too many guys get thrown out where the play isn't close. If it was a bunch of close plays and the ball gets there just in time or it was a perfect strike or a great tag or something...that's one thing. Even if all of them happen to go against the team then you're talking about great plays by the other team or bad luck and it's ok.

but it's not just one or two memorable ones where the guy is out easily. There's a whole litany at this point. Maybe it means that the players need to know when to take the foot off the gas earlier coming around second knowing they won't have enough in the tank to make it home...but it sure feels like Watkins needs to have better judgment and be a little more conservative in sending our fairly slow and oft-injured roster.

When Cory Provus discusses how Hunter Renfroe is in RF because of his cannon arm and third base coaches don’t run on Wallner tells me that Watkins should have the same information. It’s all what Waktins does with that information in sending the runners.