Max Kepler: A Minnesota Twins Era Nearing Its End

[roger]

I think we may be surprised how this turns out this fall/winter.

I recall Max saying something back when he signed this contract, something to the effect that he couldn't believe what he was being paid to play a game he would play for little or nothing.  I don't recall the quote, but it was something like that.

Yes, he may be gone in free agency.  I for one won't be surprised, however, if he resigns with the Twins on a one or two year contract for less than he was paid this year.  Perhaps a lot less.  On the other hand, I also won't be surprised if he retires.

As for Max playing next year, I believe the Twins do not have anyone ready who will be better.  Yes, Wallner will hit more home runs, but Max plays better D.  And Larnach may also hit more home runs with a similar average, but again Max plays better D.  Granted, he isn't as fast as he was and his D is no longer amongst the best in baseball.  But it is still very good, most of the time. 

Year after next the situation will be different as the Twins should see either one or both of their top prospects arrive.  

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Kepler has been a good member of the Twins organization.  Is he a superstar?  No.  But his career batting average is in line with Byron Buxton.  Yes the oft injured, seldom playing centerfielder is hitting a career .243 for 9 years.  Not much different than Keplar.  And Max plays a lot more.  

Of course, Buxton has a higher career OPS & OPS+, and despite playing 300 fewer games has a higher bWAR as well, as an even better defensive player at a more valuable and difficult position, since Kepler only played about 15% of his games at CF.

Part of the reason Kepler's tenure with the Twins may end with a mild disappointment from many fans is in the end his best ability was his availability.

Another part of the Kepler Reality is like many players his best years may have been 25-27, when he put up a 3.5, 4.0, and 1.0 (and if you project out that pandemic shortened year it lands around 3) bWAR, and his 30's could end up being a decline.

[Blyleven2011]

Really liked Keplers defense  , no question about that ....

the offense is another matter  , such a streaky hitter  with alot of walk off hits , that I'll remember  ...

Fans wanted him dfa'd  last year , but he changed everyone's mind after his second half resurgence  ,  he helped lead the twins to last years central division winner ...

[bean5302]

It's certainly not fair to judge Kepler on a single incident, but that anti-vaxx position he had in 2022 left me pretty bitter on his professionalism at the time.

That aside, though, Kepler has been a truly great story coming from Germany which has, I think, resonated with fans. His bat has been roughly league average, but his defensive skill always made him a solid every day player. He seems to be a pretty private person based on how little info is out there about him, and he's made it clear in the past he's not remotely interested in politics. What little's out there in quotes and interviews paint Kepler as a pretty focused, but reserved sincere and nice guy.

He's been a steady part of a Twins team, mostly notable because he's been a quality player while being a known face on the roster for nearly a decade, and for a Twins player, that's a truly rare situation. With about 20 career bWAR under his belt, he ranks 30th all time for the franchise, but 15th among position players to wear a "Twins" uniform just a couple behind Justin Morneau, Brian Dozier and Corey Koskie.

[cmoss84]

6 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

I felt bad when I left Honeywell. I felt sorrow when I left 3M, after my Dad passed away. I was disappointed when I was laid off by PTC. But also, the change was both necessary and ultimately beneficial in all of these cases. Life happens; let it.

He’s not dying, just working for someone else.

Had to read this a couple of times. At first, I thought you meant you felt sorrow when you left $3 million. I was like. no. doubt. 

I moved from MN almost 20 years ago-forgot about 3M...but had relatives who worked there. 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

It's like he didn't leave home to go live at summer baseball camp when he was 16 or something. There's no way that any person could ever change their mind about what they prioritize in life, just cuz they once loved it. Divorce never happens, so on, etc.  

What ever.

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

Had to read this a couple of times. At first, I thought you meant you felt sorrow when you left $3 million. I was like. no. doubt. 

I moved from MN almost 20 years ago-forgot about 3M...but had relatives who worked there. 

I’d keep the 3x10^^6.  ;)

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, USNMCPO said:

He is my wife's favorite player so watching Twins games next year should be loud in a not so good sort of way.

Kepler was Mom's favorite Twin, Mom would have been sad to have seen him go. Besides all the new faces she had difficulty to remember. Good luck Kep & thank you for your time with us & being Mom's favorite.

[jkcarew]

Gotta admire what he’s accomplished…especially given the path he had to forge. Special. 

[Craig Arko]

Having said all this, there’s still plenty of baseball to play out before the end. I plan to focus on that.

[BsuNemo]

Max has never been extremely passionate about baseball. It's like he sees it as his job, but not his life. It may be a job he well enjoys but he has even said he has had moments where it has caused him some mental health issues. Maybe he's willing to take a two year deal with a lower salary to stay here and then if he feels like two more years and he'll be ready to hang it up. Maybe moving elsewhere for two years isn't worth the hassle of uprooting his family. It would be great to see him end his career here. 

[DocBauer]

Read everything. Liked a couple of posts. Doesn't really matter because as a fan, I'm actually pretty emotional about Kepler. (Not that I haven't been about many past Twins)

Since the day he was signed he grabbed my attention. Maybe it was my German background. Maybe it was a kid from Europe instead of Latin America. Maybe it was his parents story. I just fell in love with a kid/prospect that I had hopes for.

Coming up through the system, I truly felt we were going to see multiple All Star appearances. He could run a bit, play defense, and had one of the sweetest LH swings I've ever seen.

Over the years I've argued, "look at his background" compared to American HS kids. I've often stated "just wait and see when he really catches up". In 2019 I really thought we were finally seeing what Max could become.

Just being honest, even as a fan, I was ready to move on in 2023 when he continued a downward spiral. When the 2nd half of 2023 happened, and he "opened" the possibility of K-ing more but hitting the "damn ball hard" I felt I FINALLY saw the Kepler bat I'd been waiting for for years. Now, he was always solid and generally productive, but never what I envisioned or believed. I actually thought he'd carry that over to 2024, on his Twins farewell journey, toward another ACL flag and playoff appearance. 

Alas, it really hasn't been a journey I thought I'd see.

I will always remember how great he was in RF, and that's going to be hard to replace. And I'm going to remember more than a few walk off moments, including this season, that Kepler gave us. He's a quality young man, has been a quality Twin for years, and I'm hoping for a few more quality moments before 2024 is over.

The PRACTICAL side of me sees not only finances and talent coming up, but talent already here. While Kepler is a quality defender, offensively, Larnach and Wallner have better OB% and SLG% as younger, cheaper players. Wallner moves well once he gets a couple steps under him...Larnach similar...and has a tremendous arm. Spending so much time in LF, it might take a while for either/both to understand RF in Target. I think we'll be OK overall, though we're going to lose some range vs arm ability. 

I'm just being practical, not emotional. Wallner in RF will be the more productive player overall. Based on ability, potential, and only slightly SSS that seems certain. 

None of this means I'm not still a fan of Kepler and his service to the Twins over many years. But like Polanco, there is a time for a team and player to move on. And I will wish Kepler the best of luck going forward as a fan, except when he faces the Twins.

*cue the traditional RPR dislike and comment I will ignore.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, BsuNemo said:

Max has never been extremely passionate about baseball.

From the Wiki:

At the age of six,  -- Kepler started baseball at the Little League level with the John F. Kennedy School in Berlin. Though he received a scholarship at age seven to the Steffi Graf Tennis Foundation, -  he decided to choose baseball. Kepler attended John F. Kennedy School, and the St. Emmeram Academy in Regensburg in 2008, where he was able to train in baseball more than the average American teenager.

He played association football with Hertha BSC,^[3] and played baseball for Buchbinder Legionäre Regensburg of the Bundesliga, the highest baseball league in Germany.

^{Seems he really cared about baseball.}

[Riverbrian]

If you believe the mathematical weighting of WAR. If you quote WAR in your opinions of players. Max may look alright to ya. 

If you don't believe in the math of WAR. If you think the weighting is skewed by heavy application of zone metrics like I do. Max will appear to be average at best.

Below Average actually apart from an insane hot streak post all-star break last year. 

He's one of us... I cheer for him every time. But... He isn't the player who makes you stop looking for someone better. 

[dxpavelka]

Have Larnach & Wallner REALLY passed him?  Probably. Maybe.  Will we feel differently a year from now when Larnach & Wallner don't have Kepler around and Kepler is playing somewhere else on a contract that by MLB standards is reasonably cheap.  Maybe.  Probably.

[David Maro]

Great news for the Polhad's next year will have the whole outfield a revolving door just like left and center field.Everyone talking about his only good season with the bat being 2019 seem to forget.That year was the year that MLB cheated the fans with a juiced baseball.Every players numbers were up just like the PED era.The one thing that can be said is Max has been available to play RF way more often then not.He also has been a team guy until he did say he didn't want to fill in for Buxton anymore.If they fall short this year of the playoffs it may be awhile before they get there again.

[Linus]

I look at this as an opportunity. Max has been a good fielder but average to below average hitter especially right field. If the Twins want to score more runs or score more consistently then the corner outfield spots and first base are the places to improve. How or will they is a different question. I always had high hopes for Max as a hitter just because of that sweet swing. Guess there is more to hitting than having a sweet swing (see Kiriloff, Alex). I wish Max well and hope he has a good finish to his career. 

[Ruven]

He had a good run. Time to make way for the guys coming up. Preferably with a WS win to close it out. TBD

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 8/22/2024 at 11:19 AM, MrAV said:

I share the sentiment of wanting to see the Twins sign him to a 2 year deal.  You allude to it, but one of the things that makes Kepler GREAT and worth keeping is that you don't even think about right field when he's in the game.  He's fast, accurate and has a good sense of playing the ball and a strong arm.  Combine that with a guy who can consistently hit .260 to .275 add some power and knock in at least 60 runs and you can check that position and focus elsewhere.  Who in the current mix would you put out there to lock down right field?  I think Left Field is a bigger priority and a consistent, strong back-up for Buxton in Center.  

To my eye Max has been slowing down pretty significantly the last couple of years. There are a couple plays a week that I think 21' or '22 Kepler would have made, or extra bases that he's not confident in taking any more. He's gone from a very good fielder to just a solid one in these last 2 seasons.

I'd put Wallner and his cannon in RF, let him get more experience to learn right in Target Field and then LF is open for whoever proves themselves or pitching matchups. 

Wallner won't be nearly as good as prime Kepler was, but he's faster than you think from looking at him and it's always good to have a great arm in right. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/22/2024 at 10:27 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'd like to see the Twins explore a 1 or 2 year deal with Kepler, but I agree that it probably isn't going to happen. He would be a great 3rd/4th OF along with Larnach behind Buxton and Wallner. I suspect he's going to be too expensive for that and probably doesn't want to stay where he's being passed by. I suspect he'll sign a 2 year deal with a non-contending but decent team like San Fran, Detroit, Pitt, amybe even Seattle where he can join Polanco. It'll be sad to see him go but with Wallner and LArnach passing him by and Emma and maybe even Martin close behind it's one of the inevitable passing of the torch moments in sports. 

I have thought about it and offering him a 1 year deal for $7.5-$9M is probably not a bad move. He could be the 3.5 outfielder. Worth considering if he doesn’t melt the last 5 weeks!

[Heiny]

We signed Gallo!   We signed Margot!  Kepler is better than both.  I would love to see us sign him as a fourth outfielder and pinch hitter for 2yr- 5M per.  Would he go for that?  Would we?  Would the Pohlads?  Max is class.  And this may be just sentimental.  In any case, best of luck to Max, whatever you do!