Edouard Julien Returns. What Can We Expect?

[mikelink45]

I have no expectations - but I hope he does well again.  He seems like a good person and player and isn't the first with a sophomore slump.  

[LambchoP]

Hopefully he can give us some competitive at bats and at least average defense until the team gets healthy again. If we can get Royce, Lee, Miranda, Correa and Buxton all healthy and producing.....we should be able to catch Cleveland. Of course that also depends on our pitching not falling apart, which is a real possibility:(

[Fatbat]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

MLBTR is reporting Castro will handle primary SS duties. Austin Martin was activated from the IL so I suspect he'll have primary backup for Buxton.

Julien's swing has produced 3 HRs over the past 10 games so it seems like his power stroke might be returning. I don't think he's going to be as good as his production numbers from last year, but Julien playing well over the next couple weeks probably means a Kyle Farmer DFA.
 

Farmer is on the IL and will likey get the Gallo treatment. 

[tony&rodney]

I understand numbers and have worked with them my entire life, but I do not understand those who fail to use what they see above the numbers or those who fail to acknowledge improvement in a player. 

In yesterday's game, two players received credit for hits in one inning.. One was a grounder to shortstop and another was a bunt that was inexplicable botched. When Martin threw home there was criticism of his glove tap but the timing of his throw would not have mattered because Jeffers reached for the ball instead of letting it come to him and then tagged the runner with his glove with the ball in his hand. The numbers won't show these plays.

I won't suggest Julien is without his flaws on either side of the ball. The question is who plays 2B right now? Julien will need to produce if he wants to hold his spot in the lineup but right now, he is all the Twins have for the position. Currently Julien's glove puts him ahead of the other choices but he does need to hit too.

 

[Fatbat]

I expect that Julien will play real solid baseball. He is a young  professional and has made some adjustments.  24’ has proven that we no longer lack depth in our Farm system.  We have a top 5 offense and can go 2-3 deep without having to play a marginal AAA prospect. 
The Twins are a young team and we are lucky to get to watch this group grow up together.  Julien might not be the most versatile defensive player but he has definitely improved that part of his game!  

[Brandon]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Who wants Kyle Farmer for $2M for the rest of the year, much less getting something back for him?

A rebuilding team that gets a better prospect or say the Giants trade Snell and offset some of what’s owed.  

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

A rebuilding team that gets a better prospect or say the Giants trade Snell and offset some of what’s owed.  

I think it's just quicker to DFA Farmer when he comes back from the IL if Julien hits well. There's nothing the Twins could get back for Farmer. He's a sunk cost, and it's not worth spending anything in prospect capital to try and save $2MM.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

15 hours ago, Bodie said:

How about last season then?

He was below average (some would just say bad, me included) everywhere he played. No "statistics" can make it otherwise. 

He was below average until July or so, after which he improved to be an above average or even a good second baseman by the end of the year. The numbers and the eye test support this. 

[Fatbat]

41 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think it's just quicker to DFA Farmer when he comes back from the IL if Julien hits well. There's nothing the Twins could get back for Farmer. He's a sunk cost, and it's not worth spending anything in prospect capital to try and save $2MM.

Snell is just one example, our window is wide open to go deep into the playoffs.  We need to acquire the best pitching possible.  There will be a team that will want Farmer and a prospect.  Baseball is still a business. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I understand numbers and have worked with them my entire life, but I do not understand those who fail to use what they see above the numbers or those who fail to acknowledge improvement in a player. 

In yesterday's game, two players received credit for hits in one inning.. One was a grounder to shortstop and another was a bunt that was inexplicable botched. When Martin threw home there was criticism of his glove tap but the timing of his throw would not have mattered because Jeffers reached for the ball instead of letting it come to him and then tagged the runner with his glove with the ball in his hand. The numbers won't show these plays.

I won't suggest Julien is without his flaws on either side of the ball. The question is who plays 2B right now? Julien will need to produce if he wants to hold his spot in the lineup but right now, he is all the Twins have for the position. Currently Julien's glove puts him ahead of the other choices but he does need to hit too.

 

He reached because Martin's throw bounced. He has to go catch the bounce. 

It was a terrible play by Martin. The ball was hit crisply and if he just comes up throwing, as he's supposed to do, and makes any kind of reasonable throw, he gets the runner fairly easily.

Make the plays.

Get the out on the grounded to short that Castro can't convert. Catch the friggin' popped up bunt.

And with the infield in, convert the absolute perfect one upper to second into an out.

But the Twins operate under the theory none of that matters. Nobody has a position, outside catcher. Anybody can play anywhere.

Sometimes, you get what you plan for.

 

 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

He reached because Martin's throw bounced. He has to go catch the bounce. 

It was a terrible play by Martin. The ball was hit crisply and if he just comes up throwing, as he's supposed to do, and makes any kind of reasonable throw, he gets the runner fairly easily.

Make the plays.

Get the out on the grounded to short that Castro can't convert. Catch the friggin' popped up bunt.

And with the infield in, convert the absolute perfect one upper to second into an out.

 

 

He double-clutched, the throw was too much to the first-base side, and he couldn't put enough mustard on it to reach 90 feet.  Quite the trifecta. 

There's a physical limitation with his arm, but I think by now there's a mental aspect to it as well.  Martin expects bad things to happen when the play depends on his arm, and by golly, bad things do happen.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

He was below average until July or so, after which he improved to be an above average or even a good second baseman by the end of the year. The numbers and the eye test support this. 

I tracked his defensive stats all of last year to see if the numbers supported what I thought I was seeing and the numbers tracked as you stated.  I was down low near the IF last night and his defense was fantastic.  I don't understand why some people to take a negative view and won't give credit when players improve their defense. 

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think it's just quicker to DFA Farmer when he comes back from the IL if Julien hits well. There's nothing the Twins could get back for Farmer. He's a sunk cost, and it's not worth spending anything in prospect capital to try and save $2MM.

I am not saying your wrong.  but Farmers overall stats since his season opening slump are pretty good.  He still has value.  I can see either scenario play out though I think he has established enough value to still be useful to a team who is offloading salary in a trade with us.  though is we are trading for Snell, I would expect either Kepler or Velazquez to be included in that kind of deal along with a prospect.... 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't understand why some people to take a negative view and won't give credit when players improve their defense. 

Me too. I don't get it. If all you do is look at a box score or stats, you are missing out. I don't know these players and thus don't have a warm feeling for this guy or that guy; I just watch them play.

There is a long record of players getting to the majors as sub par defensive players and becoming solid to excellent with the glove just as we see veterans decline in time. Give credit where credit is due.

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, Brandon said:

With Kyle Farmer, I can see the Twins trying to include him in a trade to get salary off the books.  Or replace in coming salary.  I doubt they DFA him.  

When Royce Lewis, Miranda and Correa are all off the DL (hopefully not too long from now) and with Lee on the roster, what else is there to do with Farmer?  One way or another, I think that is when he is no longer a Twin.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

When Royce Lewis, Miranda and Correa are all off the DL (hopefully not too long from now) and with Lee on the roster, what else is there to do with Farmer?  One way or another, I think that is when he is no longer a Twin.

This org will send Lee to AAA.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This org will send Lee to AAA.

Or send Julien back, hopefully.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I tracked his defensive stats all of last year to see if the numbers supported what I thought I was seeing and the numbers tracked as you stated.  I was down low near the IF last night and his defense was fantastic.  I don't understand why some people to take a negative view and won't give credit when players improve their defense. 

Yep, last year he was at .981 in the Minors, this year he is .932, big improvement.😆

[RpR]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Me too. I don't get it. If all you do is look at a box score or stats, you are missing out. I don't know these players and thus don't have a warm feeling for this guy or that guy; I just watch them play.

There is a long record of players getting to the majors as sub par defensive players and becoming solid to excellent with the glove just as we see veterans decline in time. Give credit where credit is due.

There is a larger record of the opposite, OK in the Minors and stink in the Majors, which is why most rookies crap out.

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, RpR said:

There is a larger record of the opposite, OK in the Minors and stink in the Majors, which is why most rookies crap out.

I'm not suggesting Julien is a fantastic player, but what exactly are the options right now? Lee is needed at 3B and is a little over matched at the plate currently although he should be fine with some experience. Martin is not going to start at 2B and he looks like he is over swinging. That leaves Julien. 

At some point your objection to all things Julien sounds personal or just that you made up some idea about him in your mind and now must stick to your guns.

Julien has been fine in the field and looked decent at the plate as well the last two games. Dreaming on past players is as futile as wishing for next year's players. The Twins will have to make it work with what they have on the roster. This is the team Falvey put together and if you are a fan of the Twins it is what we will live with for the next two months.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I tracked his defensive stats all of last year to see if the numbers supported what I thought I was seeing and the numbers tracked as you stated.  I was down low near the IF last night and his defense was fantastic.  I don't understand why some people to take a negative view and won't give credit when players improve their defense. 

RpR just can't see past the absolute worst method of measuring defense - errors.

[RpR]

Just now, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

RpR just can't see past the absolute worst method of measuring defense - errors.

I do not calculate fielding percentage, MLB does.

His glove is erradict, like his bat,

 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

I do not calculate fielding percentage, MLB does.

His glove is erradict, like his bat,

 

His 2024 MLB fielding percentage is .988.

Seems the opposite of "erradict."

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

His 2024 MLB fielding percentage is .988.

Seems the opposite of "erradict."

His MiLB 2024 2nd base, as of last week was .932 - ,049 points lower than a similar no, of games last year,

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

...but Farmers overall stats since his season opening slump are pretty good...

That was a valid argument about 2-3 weeks ago, and I was making it. I can't support it anymore, though. Even if we cherry picked the hardest we possibly could to support him sticking around, it's worth the caveat he's platooned against lefties with nearly 50% of his plate appearances coming against lefties:
3/28-4/26 = 55 PA, .064/.200/.085 OPS .285 wRC+ -11
4/27+ = 96 PA, .259/.344/.365 OPS .709 wRC+ 107

He was starting to slowly rebuild some value, but then the last couple weeks happened. Last 10 games:
.136/.208/.182 OPS .390 wRC+ 16

There needs to be a point at which the Twins cut bait on players who increase the odds of losing, and Farmer is reducing the chance the Twins win games, and the metrics say it's not luck related. He's just not hitting the ball well. xwOBA .277, xwOBACon .286. His rolling 100 plate appearance xwOBA shows he hasn't been at or above league average at any time in the past 100 plate appearances.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

His 2024 MLB fielding percentage is .988.

Seems the opposite of "erradict."

I think the opposite would be sdeadyt or sdablet.

[Schmoeman5]

I think Edouard has improved. Saying that, I still think his footwork around the bag needs to improve. And I see it all over baseball. Guys double clutching it seems every time. Just throw the damned ball to 1st

[Riverbrian]

I expect Julien to be a better hitter than some players (plural) on the 26 man. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

11 hours ago, RpR said:

I do not calculate fielding percentage, MLB does.

His glove is erradict, like his bat,

Right, and fielding % is based on errors which are an objectively awful way to measure defense. No one even tangentially related to baseball uses fielding percentage any more. 

It's 2024, you can find a less erratic measure of defense if you wanted to.

[Danchat]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

He double-clutched, the throw was too much to the first-base side, and he couldn't put enough mustard on it to reach 90 feet.  Quite the trifecta. 

There's a physical limitation with his arm, but I think by now there's a mental aspect to it as well.  Martin expects bad things to happen when the play depends on his arm, and by golly, bad things do happen.

It's incredible to me that they tried as hard as they could to have Martin be a SS when it was entirely apparent he couldn't handle it. Didn't have the arm nor the fielding ability, but that didn't stop them. His only true defensive home might be 2B.