Twins Top 20 Trade Value Series: 11-20

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s trade deadline is just two weeks away. Who are the most valuable trade pieces in the Twins organization? Will any be traded before the deadline?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value when it comes to potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts and (of course) talent. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the deadline approaches.

20. Austin Martin, UTL
2024 Age: 25
Years of Team Control: 6
Martin has shown versatility this season and provides a unique skill set at the big-league level. The Twins hoped he would develop more power, but he can use on-base skills and speed to be an above-average regular. Minnesota has team control over him for the prime of his career, which has solid value in and of itself.

19. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF
2024 Age: 20
Years of Team Control: 10
Gonzalez was a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him this winter, as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. He missed nearly two months with a back problem (muscular, not disc-related). In his first 40 games, he has posted a .732 OPS while facing older pitchers in nearly 82% of his plate appearances. 

18. Luke Keaschall, IF
2024 Age: 21
Years of Team Control: 11
Keaschall has been the fastest-rising prospect in the Twins organization in 2024. He was a second-round pick last season, and he’s shown off his five-tool skills between High- and Double-A. In 84 games, he combined for a .945 OPS and went 19-for-24 in stolen base chances. Keaschall is the type of player whom other teams target at the trade deadline. 

17. Louie Varland, SP
2024 Age: 26
Years of Team Control: 6
Varland struggled in the Twins’ rotation this year (6.58 ERA in 6 appearances), forcing the team to go in a different direction. He’s had some up-and-down moments at Triple-A, but the Twins kept him in a starting role. Varland has future value, because he is under team control and can be shifted to a relief role if he fails as a starter.

16. Marco Raya
2024 Age: 21
Years of Team Control: 9
Raya has been an intriguing prospect since the Twins drafted him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. Minnesota has been cautious with his workload, after he dealt with injuries during his first professional season. He has some of the best stuff in the Twins organization, and many national outlets continue to rank him as a borderline top-100 prospect. 

15. Edouard Julien, 2B
2024 Age: 25
Years of Team Control: 6
Julien would have ranked much higher on this list to begin the year, but the Twins believe he can turn it around. In 2023, he posted a 130 OPS+ as part of a rookie trio that spurred the Twins’ offense. Julien struggled with a 91 OPS+ in 58 games to begin this season before being demoted. The Twins will need him in the second half as injuries impact the team.

14. Simeon Woods Richardson
2024 Age: 23
Years of Team Control: 6
Woods Richardson has saved the Twins' rotation this season, after Varland struggled to start the year. In 16 starts, he has posted a 3.51 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 20.9 K%. Minnesota has gone 12-4 in games he has pitched, so he’s doing enough to help the team win. He's young and cheap, which has plenty of value even if he becomes a victim of regression.

13. David Festa, SP
2024 Age: 24
Years of Team Control: 6
Many consider Festa the Twins’ top pitching prospect, because he has plenty of upside and is essentially big-league-ready. His first starts with the Twins didn’t go perfectly, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. Festa needs to throw more strikes at Triple-A, and can join the back end of the team’s rotation whenever a need next arises.

12. Matt Wallner, OF
2024 Age: 26
Years of Team Control:  6
Wallner’s year got off to a disastrous start, with 25 terrible at-bats wherein he struck out 17 times and only managed two hits. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A, and he was a man on a mission. The International League named him June’s Hitter of the Month after he slashed .324/.403/.724, with 12 home runs and six doubles. He's hit safely in six of his first seven games since rejoining the Twins, with four extra-base hits.

11. Ryan Jeffers, C
2024 Age: 27
Years of Team Control: 3
Jeffers started the year as one of the AL’s best hitters, with an .892 OPS, 14 doubles and 12 home runs through the end of May. In June, he cratered, with a .470 OPS, managing only nine hits in 56 at-bats. Jeffers has hit better in July, though, and young catchers with team control will always be valuable.

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Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[High heat]

I hope other teams believe Marco Raya is as valuable as you!!! He is the guy I would build any deal around would be amazing if Raya and Gonzolez could get you a controllable starter.

[Linus]

Keaschall is an exciting prospect but is not a 5 tool player. Neither his arm or glove would grade out highly enough to be considered 5 tool. 
 

I too would consider SWR more valuable than Festa. 

[bean5302]

No MLB franchise trades for Festa before Woods Richardson. Honestly, I was pretty surprised BA still had Festa listed as top 100 despite the obvious issues he put on display. The Twins should capitalize on any team interested in Festa as a centerpiece for a major trade.

[BH67]

It's weird to think that the Twins have a surfeit of talent that can be traded for high-quality players without impairing The Process*. It's been many years since this was true. The challenge will be the value of the player brought in -- and I'm considerably skeptical that Falvine will get it right. Trades and free agents remain an Achilles heel for them. Granted, they're doing well in nearly every other aspect.

(*If I had another way to describe it, I would use it instead.)

[Brandon]

What are we trading for?  I still do not see a need outside of maybe a reliever.  and I think that is pushing it.  We have 5 solid starters and 2 prospects ready in AAA with Zebby almost the third prospect ready to go.  If not for Wallner and Larnarch maybe a LF.  if not for Lee, Farmer, and Castro and Julien in AAA we could get a 2B like Polanco.  or a DH like JD Martinez but I doubt the Mets are sellers and we still have Miranda and Lewis and Buxton needing to rotate through DH and probably Correa with the foot issue popping back up again too.  so I don't see where else we would trade for someone and I am reaching with what I proposed above.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

What are we trading for?  I still do not see a need outside of maybe a reliever.  and I think that is pushing it.  We have 5 solid starters and 2 prospects ready in AAA with Zebby almost the third prospect ready to go.  If not for Wallner and Larnarch maybe a LF.  if not for Lee, Farmer, and Castro and Julien in AAA we could get a 2B like Polanco.  or a DH like JD Martinez but I doubt the Mets are sellers and we still have Miranda and Lewis and Buxton needing to rotate through DH and probably Correa with the foot issue popping back up again too.  so I don't see where else we would trade for someone and I am reaching with what I proposed above.  

The Twins desperately need an ace. They don't have one, and if they want to advance in the playoffs, they likely need one. Solid starters get you to the postseason, and swept right back out of it. Last year is the very first time the Twins entered the playoffs in the last decade with a strong 1-2 in Gray and Lopez. 

Right now, I don't feel comfortable going up against opponents top 3 starters with our guys.
 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Linus said:

Keaschall is an exciting prospect but is not a 5 tool player. Neither his arm or glove would grade out highly enough to be considered 5 tool. 
 

I too would consider SWR more valuable than Festa. 

He said that Keashall showed off his 5 tool skillset,, not that he had them 

[thelanges5]

We need a reliable lefty reliever and another starter depending on how high one is on Paddack. 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'd rank SWR above Festa only because he has proven it at the MLB level.

I would rank SWR above everyone else on the list. Competent starting pitching is the scarcest talent in MLB.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

What are we trading for?  I still do not see a need outside of maybe a reliever.  and I think that is pushing it.  We have 5 solid starters and 2 prospects ready in AAA with Zebby almost the third prospect ready to go.  If not for Wallner and Larnarch maybe a LF.  if not for Lee, Farmer, and Castro and Julien in AAA we could get a 2B like Polanco.  or a DH like JD Martinez but I doubt the Mets are sellers and we still have Miranda and Lewis and Buxton needing to rotate through DH and probably Correa with the foot issue popping back up again too.  so I don't see where else we would trade for someone and I am reaching with what I proposed above.  

I agree that the Team is in a pretty good position across the board on depth and capabilities.

I do think the concern would be (as with a WHOLE BUNCH of Teams) if a rotation guy goes down or starts to underperform, what do we do? I think stating that the Team has “2 prospects ready in AAA……” is a stretch for most here at TD to buy into as of today. That’s the area of concern…….an underperforming #1 - a 23 year old with limited innings in years prior - a #5 that has never thrown a full starter load and has had 2,major elbow surgeries, with fluctuating velocity over past 6 weeks or more.

A bit anxious about this group.

[DJL44]

It is funny that your highlight for Marco Raya shows Pierson Ohl clearly outperformed him in that particular game.

[LambchoP]

I think we need a TOR starter. Like someone said above, we have five starting pitchers in our rotation now. Sure that's true, but I don't think Paddack or maybe even SWR should be starting playoff games. Our rotation now should be good enough to get us to the playoffs, but if we want to actually win a series, we'll need an ace or number 2 type starter. And a good lefty for the pen. If a team out there has a starter with control or a good lefty reliever, we should build a package around Festa, Raya, Gonzalez, maybe AK or Larnach.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins desperately need an ace. They don't have one, and if they want to advance in the playoffs, they likely need one. Solid starters get you to the postseason, and swept right back out of it. Last year is the very first time the Twins entered the playoffs in the last decade with a strong 1-2 in Gray and Lopez. 

Right now, I don't feel comfortable going up against opponents top 3 starters with our guys.
 

This has been a constant refrain on Twins Daily and it is fair. My thought is always the same - who would you trade for and what is the proposed player(s) going the other way? For example, if you wanted Crochet from the White Sox, what is the bundle of players that would entice the CWS to agree?

Count me as a person who has a fair amount of trust in Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to compete in the postseason. I'm more concerned with the bats and fielding. 

However, I am still a fan of adding an ace to the pitching staff. I just don't believe people would accept the cost. More importantly, the Twins are unlikely to pay the price.

[bean5302]

45 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This has been a constant refrain on Twins Daily and it is fair. My thought is always the same - who would you trade for and what is the proposed player(s) going the other way? For example, if you wanted Crochet from the White Sox, what is the bundle of players that would entice the CWS to agree?

Count me as a person who has a fair amount of trust in Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to compete in the postseason. I'm more concerned with the bats and fielding. 

However, I am still a fan of adding an ace to the pitching staff. I just don't believe people would accept the cost. More importantly, the Twins are unlikely to pay the price.

Crochet probably isn't going anywhere. The Twins will need to target guys with less team control or a higher AAV cost like Blake Snell, Zac Gallen or Sonny Gray.

So what would say, Blake Snell cost? We'll assume he pitches well in his next two starts vs. the Dodgers in L.A. and Rockies in S.F., but SF is still willing to move him because they're still 9 games back of the division and 3 games back from the Wild Card (under .500). Snell's probably a rental, and a cheap one at that. His 2024 salary is only $15MM, meaning he's only going to cost the acquiring team $5MM, though if he has a bad 2nd half or gets hurt, his $30MM player option is scary, but it doesn't come with a single lump sum hit as $15MM is deferred until 2027.

It's hard to gauge the cost of Snell, but a 6-10 and a 11-15 type should get it done. Not sure what SF would target as their primary interest. 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's hard to gauge the cost of Snell, but a 6-10 and a 11-15 type should get it done. Not sure what SF would target as their primary interest. 

Aaron Gleeman has a new list up at The Athletic. I'm not sure what SF would target, but I think they want more than we expect. The Giants are also not expected to be sellers. Finally, the financial risk associated with Snell may be beyond the limit for the Twins. 

Still, I like the idea of Snell pitching for the Twins. Would Charlee Soto and Andrew Morris get Snell?

I'm still guessing that an added starting pitcher needs to come with years of control. A good relief pitcher as a rental makes sense. Also, what would it cost to add Randy Arozarena? He also butts up against the budget however.

[JD-TWINS]

Is there a NEED for a reliever or is it just the only plausible flaw? (other than starter depth)

Staumont - .86 ERA

Alcala - 1.56 ERA

Jax - 1.91 ERA

Duran - 2.93 ERA

Sands - 3.56 ERA 

Okert - 3.86 ERA

Funderburk - 5.61 ERA

Thielbar - 5.64 ERA

Jackson is gone ……

Topa is a Big Maybe, agreed

Stewart is a strongly probable in early August

Varland is strongly probable by mid-September 

Paddack is strongly probable in late September 

Can we really improve with a no option veteran via trade…….that’s going to pitch better than what we have, for sure?

[Heiny]

My problem with trading for an ace type starter is that it would only be a rental.  The Twins will not pay the price of a multi-year ace type starter plus the trade pieces would be extremly high.  A rental type starter would also be pretty costly but I wouldn't want to trade any pitching prospects.  If we could get a top pitching rental for pieces that we have deep positional depth, then maybe but I just don't see it happening.  Those pitchers are going to have many suiters.  I am betting that the Twins will go into the post-season with Lopez, Ryan, and Ober and hope for the best.  Good trade pieces in my opinion, would maybe be Julien, Keaschal, Gonzalez, Larnach, Kirilloff, Winkour and lesser prospects from infield and outfield.  I just don't see us getting a top pitcher for some of these guys.  Off limits would be our top prospects Lee, Rodriguez, Walker, Lewis.  Trade deadline should be very interesting for a lot of teams, I just don't think the Twins will be one of them.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is there a NEED for a reliever or is it just the only plausible flaw? (other than starter depth)

Can we really improve with a no option veteran via trade…….that’s going to pitch better than what we have, for sure?

Yes, they can find a lefty better than Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, they can find a lefty better than Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk

Tanner Scott might be the only guy definitively better, and he's going to cost a pretty penny I think. 

[chpettit19]

I'd put Keaschall above Varland and Raya. And maybe Festa.

[darin617]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

Keaschall is an exciting prospect but is not a 5 tool player. Neither his arm or glove would grade out highly enough to be considered 5 tool. 
 

I too would consider SWR more valuable than Festa. 

5 tool player is such a dumb statistic when you think about it.  Teams seem to ignore the speed part the most. I would love to see more small ball. Players that know how to run the bases and can actually laydown a bunt for a hit. Such a lost art and if a team would exploit it they could dominate since most catchers are terrible at throwing out runners. along with pitchers knowing how to hold runners as well. 

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Heiny said:

Off limits would be our top prospects Lee, Rodriguez, Walker, Lewis. 

You may be correct but then you also must realize that adding a good starting pitcher is not happening. What is the saying .... you have to give to get.

[DJL44]

Where's Zebby?

[Heiny]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You may be correct but then you also must realize that adding a good starting pitcher is not happening. What is the saying .... you have to give to get.

Finish reading the post.  That's exactly what I am saying.