From Worst to Best: The Twins Have Slain Their Strikeout Demons

[Nick Nelson]

If you were hoping the Twins could overcome the most irksome aspect of their offensive game, then you've got to be pleased with what you're seeing this year.

Amazingly, they've transformed into one of the least strikeout-prone teams in the majors.

Image courtesy of John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

As you are surely aware, the Minnesota Twins offense set the major-league record for strikeouts in 2023. Around this time last year, as the team hurtled toward their dubious distinction, Rocco Baldelli acknowledged, "The strikeouts, they are an issue, and there’s no way around that." 

Concerns around the stylistic tendencies of the Twins offense were arguably validated when the team crumpled at home against Houston in the ALDS, amid a flurry of nonstop strikeouts. Minnesota hitters piled up 28 of them in Games 3 and 4 while scoring three total runs, in front of packed houses at Target Field. It felt frustratingly fitting that the final game of the 2023 season -- a 3-2 series-clinching loss to the Astros -- ended with the last four Twins batters (and eight of the last 10) going down on strikeouts. 

This year, we all hoped to see some positive regression in the contact department, even as the Twins showed no inclination to shy away from their general approach of prioritizing power over contact. Early on, the signs were not good. Through their first 20 games, while slumping to a 7-13 start behind an offense that couldn't kick into gear, Minnesota posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (26.5%), batting .195 as a team.

Their turnaround since that point has been astonishing. In 65 games since Apr. 22, the Twins have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball, at 19.5 percent. In the month of June, the Minnesota Twins had the lowest strikeout rate in the American League, and second-lowest in baseball.

It's remarkable, especially because they haven't sacrificed anything in the way of power or potency of contact. Over these past 65 games, the Twins rank fourth in the majors in Isolated Power (ISO), behind only the formidable Orioles, Yankees and Dodgers. Minnesota has struck out the least of any of these teams.

How far we've come! It's almost impossible to comprehend how quickly the Twins went from being one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball to one of the least, and how impactful this has been for their offensive production. (Entering play on Wednesday, the Twins led MLB in batting average, wOBA and runs scored since Apr. 22. They also have the best record in the AL during that span.)

Just what are the factors driving this stunning turn of events? There are three primary developments that help tell the story:

Offseason Roster Changes
This is the fairly obvious explanation. Last year, Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor combined to strike out 272 times in 770 plate appearances (37.8%), ranking first and eighth in the AL in strikeout rate, respectively. Merely removing them from the lineup was bound to at least help the Twins gravitate back toward the pack following a historic year for whiffs, especially when the players brought in to functionally replace them (Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot) are contact-oriented hitters.

Demotions of Strikeout-Prone Batters
Over the course of the first half, the Twins sequentially demoted Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff. Those three combined to strike out 130 times in 405 plate appearances (32.1%) during their time in the majors, holding three of the four highest strikeout rates on the team. 

And here again: It's not just removal of K-prone players from the mix -- it's replacing them with players who carry the opposite profile, like José Miranda (15th-lowest K-rate in MLB) and Austin Martin.

Substantial Improvement and Adjustments from Within
This is the most encouraging factor behind Minnesota's huge strides in mitigating the strikeouts: much of it is simply coming from players still on the roster who are striking out far less than they did previously. The two other players among the top five on the team in strikeout rate, alongside Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff, are Willi Castro and Byron Buxton, who perfectly exemplify this trend.

It's easy to forget now, but Castro got off to a really rough start at the plate this year. He struck out in 21 of his first 47 plate appearances, and halfway through April he led the majors, with his 43.8% mark edging Gallo's 40.6%. Since Apr. 16, Castro has struck out in a mere 21.4% of his plate appearances.

Buxton's struggles at the plate persisted a bit longer than Castro's, but he, too, has completely flipped the narrative on his strikeout tendencies. Buck has played 64 games this year, posting a 31.9% punchout rate in the first 32 and a 22.6% K-rate in the next 32.

Trevor Larnach is another example of a player who has reinvented himself when it comes to making contact. He entered this season with a 32.6% career strikeout rate in the majors; his inability to get the bat on the ball consistently stood as a prime barrier to success. In 2024 Larnach has struck out just 33 times in 183 plate appearances (18.0%), and uncoincidentally, it's all coming together, as he finds himself batting second or third against righties.

Every team, naturally, swings more often with two strikes than before they get to that point in the count. You have to protect the plate in those situations. For all of 2023 and much of the first month this year, though, the Twins were one of the worst teams in the league at making those adjustments and covering the zone once failing to do so meant going down looking.

Since Apr. 22, though, they've made the switch. Some of that is sending down overly passive players like Julien. Some of it is guys like Castro and Buxton tweaking their approach. No matter the reasons, though, they're now a tougher set of at-bats for opposing pitchers.

The strikeout demons that notoriously come to haunt the Twins have evidently been slain, through a combination of strategic roster moves, hitter adjustments and effective coaching support. That bodes very well for the offense's outlook in the second half and beyond, and very badly for opposing pitchers who are tasked with facing the best lineup in baseball.

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[Parfigliano]

Making contact makes for a better offense in baseball.

[mikelink45]

I love it - I do not care about the three true outcomes that are constantly listed.  For me it is Strike out, ground our, fly out.  Those are the three true outcomes and the last two can at least cause something to happen that is positive. 

[Linus]

I think the whole strikeout thing is more nuanced. I get it - it’s ugly to watch people flail away but often times it doesn’t matter if you k or fly out or hit a dribbler. There are times that it does. Obvious situation being man on third with less than two outs or man on second and nobody out. Take last night when Buck scored on the contact play. Jeffers had weak contact and beat the ball into the dirt. Everything you don’t want as a hitter yet it scored Buxton. The nuanced part comes here: I don’t think in today’s game you can have two different approaches as a hitter - it’s too difficult. If approach is the three true outcomes but then you have an at bat where you can’t strike out I just don’t think it can be done. Your mindset has to be about preventing strikeouts all the time so you are confident you can do it when you really need to put the ball in play. Just my theory. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This might be the most shocking development of the Twins' season so far. I assumed that they would regress a little from their previous ways, plus they got rid of a couple of real whiffers in Taylor and Gallo, but I just didn't see this happening.  Good job!

 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I think the whole strikeout thing is more nuanced. I get it - it’s ugly to watch people flail away but often times it doesn’t matter if you k or fly out or hit a dribbler. There are times that it does. Obvious situation being man on third with less than two outs or man on second and nobody out. Take last night when Buck scored on the contact play. Jeffers had weak contact and beat the ball into the dirt. Everything you don’t want as a hitter yet it scored Buxton. The nuanced part comes here: I don’t think in today’s game you can have two different approaches as a hitter - it’s too difficult. If approach is the three true outcomes but then you have an at bat where you can’t strike out I just don’t think it can be done. Your mindset has to be about preventing strikeouts all the time so you are confident you can do it when you really need to put the ball in play. Just my theory. 

By Jeffers making contact they scored a run. If Jeffers strikes out there is no run scored.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I think the whole strikeout thing is more nuanced. I get it - it’s ugly to watch people flail away but often times it doesn’t matter if you k or fly out or hit a dribbler. There are times that it does. Obvious situation being man on third with less than two outs or man on second and nobody out. Take last night when Buck scored on the contact play. Jeffers had weak contact and beat the ball into the dirt. Everything you don’t want as a hitter yet it scored Buxton. The nuanced part comes here: I don’t think in today’s game you can have two different approaches as a hitter - it’s too difficult. If approach is the three true outcomes but then you have an at bat where you can’t strike out I just don’t think it can be done. Your mindset has to be about preventing strikeouts all the time so you are confident you can do it when you really need to put the ball in play. Just my theory. 

But it has been done for over 100 years.

[UpstateNewYorker]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I think the whole strikeout thing is more nuanced. I get it - it’s ugly to watch people flail away but often times it doesn’t matter if you k or fly out or hit a dribbler. There are times that it does. Obvious situation being man on third with less than two outs or man on second and nobody out. Take last night when Buck scored on the contact play. Jeffers had weak contact and beat the ball into the dirt. Everything you don’t want as a hitter yet it scored Buxton. The nuanced part comes here: I don’t think in today’s game you can have two different approaches as a hitter - it’s too difficult. If approach is the three true outcomes but then you have an at bat where you can’t strike out I just don’t think it can be done. Your mindset has to be about preventing strikeouts all the time so you are confident you can do it when you really need to put the ball in play. Just my theory. 

Justin Morneau has said something similar on the broadcasts:  hitters spend so much time honing their swings that for most of them it's difficult to have a different approach with, for example, two strikes, or a man on third with less than two outs.

(Of course Justin makes excuses a lot. 😁 )

[Linus]

54 minutes ago, Karbo said:

But it has been done for over 100 years.

And how many years have guys thrown 100 with wicked spin rates?

[Linus]

56 minutes ago, Karbo said:

By Jeffers making contact they scored a run. If Jeffers strikes out there is no run scored.

Uh that’s what I said. 

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, Linus said:

And how many years have guys thrown 100 with wicked spin rates?

More than you think.

[Danchat]

Speaking of Joey Gallo, I saw he has a 43% strikeout rate. Maybe once he's healthy we can swing a deadline deal? 😆

It seems like the number of "uncompetitive" ABs have gone down as the season has progressed... though to be fair, since I can't watch games anymore I can't confirm this. But there seems to be less grumbling about it in the gameday threads.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Making contact makes for a better offense in baseball.

And it's more democratic, and oodles more fun to watch!

[Fatbat]

We are winning more than last year and people are down on this team. Some people just can’t be happy.  So many positives about this team! People need to relax and enjoy the show!!

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, Linus said:

And how many years have guys thrown 100 with wicked spin rates?

And how long have hitters had the advanced video, and detailed advance scouting, not to mention advanced year round training? IMO it's a wash.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We are winning more than last year and people are down on this team. Some people just can’t be happy.  So many positives about this team! People need to relax and enjoy the show!!

LET’s FIRE THE WORTHLESS HITTING COACH!! Let’s DFA 4-5 guys!! …….,etc.,etc. Can’t believe they don’t sign Blake Snell!!!

[Eris]

13 hours ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Justin Morneau has said something similar on the broadcasts:  hitters spend so much time honing their swings that for most of them it's difficult to have a different approach with, for example, two strikes, or a man on third with less than two outs.

(Of course Justin makes excuses a lot. 😁 )

Remembering from past years, Rod Carew had many different batting approaches which would be varied depending on the pitcher. I think a lot of this is on training and the expected outcome, i.e. getting a hit vs a home run.

[beterday]

This is the first time management has done anything about it.  I have yelled at the screen to "Send him down" a hundred times to Julien and then he went down.  Career shot in Minnesota - now that Brooks Lee has arrived -  and he can take his stubborn attitude of "I can tell when a pitch is 1/4" outside" somewhere else.   Maybe Buxton won't become the next Sano!!  And Wallner will have to quit striking out or he, too, will remain in St. Paul.

 

[Fatbat]

50 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

LET’s FIRE THE WORTHLESS HITTING COACH!! Let’s DFA 4-5 guys!! …….,etc.,etc. Can’t believe they don’t sign Blake Snell!!!

We cant go too much deeper in reserves/AAA guys or we get a decline in talent that will be forced to play daily.  Farmer and Margo have had disappointing seasons so far.  Something will have to be done if everyone gets healthy at the same time in August/Sept. it always work’s itself out tho. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

And how long have hitters had the advanced video, and detailed advance scouting, not to mention advanced year round training? IMO it's a wash.

I think we are in agreement but don’t know it. What I am saying is that hitters need to be in a non - strikeout frame of mind all the time in order to be good at it. Yes years ago players had a “two strike” approach but they generally tried to prevent strikeouts all the time. It was considered an embarrassment to strike out before the three true outcome approach. 

[Otaknam]

I never bought into the notion that the 2023 Twins Earl Weaver approach was a good idea, despite some who defended this with analytical nonsense. It was certainly hard to watch player after player flailing away with unproductive at bats. I find it hard to believe that professional hitters can’t modify their approach depending on the count. It seems like they would have practiced this during batting practice all the way through the minors, such as taking the ball the other way or focusing on contact, not just power, with a RISP and less than two outs. Glad they seem to be evolving. Now maybe Rocco can add an occasional hit and run and a stolen base here and there. 

[bean5302]

On 7/3/2024 at 6:27 PM, Linus said:

And how many years have guys thrown 100 with wicked spin rates?

...and how many of those hitters were 6'5 and 250lbs who could bench 300lbs armed with specialized, technologically advanced 30-32oz bats made of maple and cupped at the end?

Most old timey baseball players were 6'0" and about 175lbs. Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, all around there. Mickey Mantle was 5'11" 195lbs. Ruth only tipped the scales at 215 and swung a 50oz bat.
 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 7/3/2024 at 7:12 PM, RpR said:

More than you think.

Nolan Ryan was the only guy who definitely threw 100 before the steroid era. Maybe Bob Feller did, but that's pretty much it.

I'd guarantee it's fewer than you think. There's a reason Bob Feller's fastball is legendary - he was one of extremely few guys who could throw that before the recent pitching revolution. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Nolan Ryan was the only guy who definitely threw 100 before the steroid era. Maybe Bob Feller did, but that's pretty much it.

I'd guarantee it's fewer than you think. There's a reason Bob Feller's fastball is legendary - he was one of extremely few guys who could throw that before the recent pitching revolution. 

There is an article, on this look it up.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

54 minutes ago, RpR said:

There is an article, on this look it up.

So memorable you can't find it, eh? I'd defy you to name more than 3 pitchers before the 90's who threw 100 mph. 

If you believe Nolan Ryan threw 108 mph I've got a bridge in Mankato to sell you. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

So memorable you can't find it, eh? I'd defy you to name more than 3 pitchers before the 90's who threw 100 mph. 

If you believe Nolan Ryan threw 108 mph I've got a bridge in Mankato to sell you. 

Not wasting my time on you baseless opinion.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

Not wasting my time on you baseless opinion.

That's ironic given you were asked to provide a basis for your opinion.  You are making a claim while providing no evidence.  It seems perfectly reasonable to ask you to support your position with a few names.  

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Nolan Ryan was the only guy who definitely threw 100 before the steroid era. Maybe Bob Feller did, but that's pretty much it.

I'd guarantee it's fewer than you think. There's a reason Bob Feller's fastball is legendary - he was one of extremely few guys who could throw that before the recent pitching revolution. 

Not disagreeing - just throwing out some names - part of the definitive line with Ryan was the Technology wasn’t evolved. or pursued much.

Smoky Joe Wood - Ryan - Walter Johnson - Sam McDowell - Clemons - JR Richard - Gooden - Feller ……definitely not a long list of possibilities prior to 90’s.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

11 hours ago, RpR said:

Not wasting my time on you baseless opinion.

Thanks for proving my point though. 

[RpR]

54 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Thanks for proving my point though. 

What that you have no proof of your point, LOL.

Not related to your whims but this is interesting.

Of a man named Johnny Vollmer, who could really hurl the ball. He had a windmill style, a gift that was his power, To throw the softball by you at a hundred miles an hour.

https://msf1.org/the-story-of-fireball-johnny-vollmer-one-of-the-nations-greatest-fast-pitch-softball-hurlers/