Three Silver Linings to Edouard Julien's Demotion

[Lou Hennessy]

There are plenty of reasons to be disappointed by the Twins’ decision to option Edouard Julien to Triple-A, but keep in mind that there are a handful of silver linings that make the transaction a little easier to swallow. 

The Twins are still carving out a spot for second baseman Edouard Julien in their long-term plans, but the young slugger will have to take some lumps in the minor leagues for the time being. With superstar third baseman Royce Lewis being activated from the injured list after a two-month recovery from a quad strain that he suffered on Opening Day, Julien ended up being the odd man out on the club’s 26-man roster. 
It’s a disappointing development for the 25-year-old Quebecois, but his last month of underwhelming play helped necessitate a move. Since May 1st, Julien has hit .147/.282/.200 with just one extra-base hit and a brutal 36.2% strikeout rate. He follows the unfortunate footsteps of a few other rookies from last year that were also optioned to Triple-A after rough starts to their 2024 campaign. Matt Wallner and Louie Varland (both of Twins Daily Winter Meltdown fame) were each in a similar position about a month ago, and their demotions ended up really benefiting the big league club since then. Of course, the best version of this Twins team would include all three of these players being on the big league roster and contributing at the high level that each displayed in the second half of last season. But there can still be positive ripples that come out of disappointing developments. 
With that said, here are a few silver linings that can come out of the decision to send Julien on the green line to St. Paul.

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Royce is a Difference-Maker

It would be one thing if Julien was yielding a roster spot and playing time to a marginal player that is coming back from a prolonged injury. If it were Kyle Farmer coming back from a strained quad and the team still decided Julien was the player that needed to be sent down, more outrage would be well-warranted. 
But Lewis was counted on to be the heart of the lineup, and frankly, the clubhouse for years to come, and his outlook hasn’t lost that shine despite his lengthy absence. Through his first 71 games of action in the major leagues, the young face of the franchise has impressed mightily to the tune of a .313/.369/.564 clip, with 18 home runs and 58 RBI. In his admittedly small sample size, he’s done nothing but thrive at the game’s highest level, and it doesn’t appear to be a mirage. 
Getting Lewis back in the fold will be worthwhile, even if it comes at the immediate expense of Julien as his offensive numbers continue to tumble. 

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The Post-Hype Prospects Continue To Hit

As Lewis began his rehab assignment a couple weeks ago, many started to speculate what the corresponding roster move would be upon his official return. The go-to answer was the safe assumption that these questions usually answer themselves with yet another injury elsewhere on the roster. But this time, the Twins had to make an imperfect move to address the rare problem of having a roster that’s just too damn healthy (*furiously knocks on wood*).  
The Twins have shown a hesitancy to pull the plug on struggling veterans in the past, so an early-season designation for the likes of someone like Manuel Margot or Farmer in this instance never felt realistic, as underwhelming as their play has been so far in 2024. That left a small handful of names under team control as potential demotions. Along with Julien, this included former top prospects Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda. 
But each of those three have been hitting the snot out of the ball over the last few weeks. Since May 20th, Kirilloff and Larnach each have an OPS nearing 1.000 and Jose Miranda has an impressive .832 OPS himself while providing huge results in clutch situations time after time. In that timeframe, the 25-year-old hit an otherworldly .409/.417/.909 in medium and high-leverage situations, with three home runs and nine runs batted in.  
In short, it stinks when an exciting young player gets demoted after the only significant month-long slump in their entire career. But it’s easier to swallow when three other young players are stepping up like we’ve seen in recent weeks. 

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Julien Could Be Back Up Shortly

Even after Julien’s brutal month of May, he still grades out as above-average player on the year thanks to his hot stretch in April, and his surprisingly solid defense all season long. No question, he’ll have some things to work on in Triple-A, namely his ability to drive off-speed and breaking balls while maintaining his elite passivity toward chasing out of the zone. But there’s a sense that his demotion is different from someone like Wallner or Varland, who never got on track from the get-go.
It’s reasonable to expect that Julien goes down and mashes for a few weeks, forcing the Twins’ hand into a harder decision with some of their underperforming veterans, which seems to be what many critics of this move seem to be craving at this moment rather than kicking the can down the road.
It’s also reasonable to expect Julien to be the first name called if there’s an injury to the major league roster, especially if he’s replacing a fellow left-handed hitter (Austin Martin would likely be the replacement for Byron Buxton or Margot only). Because Julien’s demotion had more to do with the other names that are on the Twins roster rather than his own need for a harder reset, he’s more likely to be available for a swift return to the MLB roster. 

What do you think? Do these silver linings to Julien’s demotion make up for the disappointment of sending him down? Where do you think he fits into the team’s long-term plans? Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 
 

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[RpR]

Julien and Wallner are not coming back any time soon, barring a vet injury.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Julien and Wallner are not coming back any time soon, barring a vet injury.

If you haven't looked lately, Wallner might be closer than you imagine.  He's been blisteringly hot in the past dozen games or so with a lot of HR.  I'd rely on the on-field staff to judge whether this is from teeing off on pitches that he won't see in the majors, or if it's legit.  AAA is far from major league of course, and a dozen games is short, so the trained eye will decide.  But not every batter in AAA has OPSed above 1.000 in that span, facing that same weak caliber of pitching, so at least he's turning it around at the moment and is no longer the basket case we were forced to watch.

As for Julien, I'm with you.  He will benefit from AAA only if it's for a long stint and he uses it to re-calibrate his approach.  He was being abused by major-league pitchers and the trend was downward when he was demoted.

 

[D.C Twins]

The fourth silver lining for him is that he got to miss a few more arse kickings by the Yankees

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If you haven't looked lately, Wallner might be closer than you imagine.  He's been blisteringly hot in the past dozen games or so with a lot of HR.  I'd rely on the on-field staff to judge whether this is from teeing off on pitches that he won't see in the majors, or if it's legit.  AAA is far from major league of course, and a dozen games is short, so the trained eye will decide.  But not every batter in AAA has OPSed above 1.000 in that span, facing that same weak caliber of pitching, so at least he's turning it around at the moment and is no longer the basket case we were forced to watch.

As for Julien, I'm with you.  He will benefit from AAA only if it's for a long stint and he uses it to re-calibrate his approach.  He was being abused by major-league pitchers and the trend was downward when he was demoted.

 

His fielding is still mediocre at best, and he had 13 ks in April with 39 in May; Joey Gallo like at bat but a long way back to the majors.

[Karbo]

Move him to 1B while in St. Paul so he gets some reps there!

[terrydactyls]

Does anyone else think there might be a strong correlation between Julien's low strikeout numbers in AAA and the fact that robo-umps are used in half the games?

[Dman]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone else think there might be a strong correlation between Julien's low strikeout numbers in AAA and the fact that robo-umps are used in half the games?

Maybe sometimes, umpires at the MLB level expand the zone all the time, but he is taking strikes well over the plate these days just because it isn't in his spot or he was expecting something else.  His contact rate hasn't been good either. Pitchers are getting better at pitching to him on the edges of the zone.  Regardless he will have to adapt to MLB one way or another and while I don't think AAA will help him with the zone it should help his confidence.

[tony&rodney]

40 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone else think there might be a strong correlation between Julien's low strikeout numbers in AAA and the fact that robo-umps are used in half the games?

There is some correlation. Even on weekends when the umpires call balls and strikes in AAA, there is a challenge system in play. 

However, the main issue with Julien in May was an inability to get base hits or make strong contact on breaking pitches and those pitches on the very edge of the zone. 

Julien is a player to benefit from the ABS system but he needs to make some adjustments to return to where he was last season. MLB is a tough business as Corbin Carroll can tell you. 

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

If you haven't looked lately, Wallner might be closer than you imagine.  He's been blisteringly hot in the past dozen games or so with a lot of HR.  I'd rely on the on-field staff to judge whether this is from teeing off on pitches that he won't see in the majors, or if it's legit.  AAA is far from major league of course, and a dozen games is short, so the trained eye will decide.  But not every batter in AAA has OPSed above 1.000 in that span, facing that same weak caliber of pitching, so at least he's turning it around at the moment and is no longer the basket case we were forced to watch.

As for Julien, I'm with you.  He will benefit from AAA only if it's for a long stint and he uses it to re-calibrate his approach.  He was being abused by major-league pitchers and the trend was downward when he was demoted.

 

Wallner is close, if not ready.  Saving an injury, the casualty has to be Margot.  Margot would likely make it through waivers.  I think Julien NEEDS this hard reset.  His strike out rate (especially not swinging K's) must be addressed; especially if Julien is to become the player most of us think he can be.  He has to show significant improvement before being called up.  Otherwise, he might regress.  Barring that improvement, I could see Lee or Martin being the next infielder coming up.  

[RpR]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone else think there might be a strong correlation between Julien's low strikeout numbers in AAA and the fact that robo-umps are used in half the games?

Then Wallner should have a low srike out rate also, which he does not have.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Wallner is close, if not ready.  Saving an injury, the casualty has to be Margot.  Margot would likely make it through waivers.  I think Julien NEEDS this hard reset.  His strike out rate (especially not swinging K's) must be addressed; especially if Julien is to become the player most of us think he can be.  He has to show significant improvement before being called up.  Otherwise, he might regress.  Barring that improvement, I could see Lee or Martin being the next infielder coming up.  

I don't think it's likely that Wallner replaces Margot. The Twins have shown no sign whatsoever that they're willing to go that left-handed and lose their option to platoon at an extreme clip.

But I agree Julien needs a reset. He needs to figure out breaking balls which very well may require a swing change. That work should not be done in the majors.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Then Wallner should have a low srike out rate also, which he does not have.

Wallner and Julien are totally different players with only tangential similarities. Wallner does not seem to be working on closing the holes which MLB pitchers exposed and he also does not really have the knowledge of the strike zone that Julien possesses. Julien is working on his weaknesses, based on watching him swing the last few days.

[LambchoP]

I think a good reset in AAA can do Julien some good. He needs to figure out the strikeouts, especially the caught looking strikeouts. Wallner sure has heated up lately, lots of home runs. The best move would be replace him with Margot, since I'm sure he would pass through waivers at this point. Of course Margot is a mighty and Wallner s a lefty so this won't happen. Even if Margot is basically an automatic out. This platoon obsession has been so frustrating this year. Just let your best hitters hit regardless of handedness. Kepler has been hitting lefties great! And how are these young guys supposed to learn how to hit lefties if they're constantly getting pulled for a pinch hitter? So tired of Rocco..

[Karbo]

59 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is some correlation. Even on weekends when the umpires call balls and strikes in AAA, there is a challenge system in play. 

However, the main issue with Julien in May was an inability to get base hits or make strong contact on breaking pitches and those pitches on the very edge of the zone. 

Julien is a player to benefit from the ABS system but he needs to make some adjustments to return to where he was last season. MLB is a tough business as Corbin Carroll can tell you. 

I agree to a point. He has also been missing pitches in the middle of the zone or watching them go by. He has to start with the approach of fouling off some of these borderline pitches. That probably means toning down his swing a bit with 2 strikes.

[4twinsJA]

Each week/month that goes by, Twins owe veterans less and less if released. I would not think anything will happen until after the All-Star break, but after that could see some movement. I don't see anyone coming up from AAA until later in season unless there is an injury. I expect a month+ for Julien at AAA.

[Jim wyllie]

The other thing to consider is brooks lee is now healthy and if he out plays Julien then lee would likely get the call up as they are both infielders.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think a good reset in AAA can do Julien some good.

He does not need a rest, he needs an education on how to play major league baseball.

[Road trip]

32 minutes ago, RpR said:

He does not need a rest, he needs an education on how to play major league baseball.

Apparently so do Margot, Farmer and various other vets, because they have forgotten how to hit.  You can fill a MLB roster with these kinds of players and win 60 or so games year after year after year.  Sounds like a great plan.

Since you will forgive veterans any amount of poor play, perhaps the Twins should contact Terry Steinbach to see if he still wants to catch?  He's still hanging around New Ulm and was a hell of player back in the 1990s.  He might have something left in the tank...

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Apparently so do Margot, Farmer and various other vets, because they have forgotten how to hit.  You can fill a MLB roster with these kinds of players and win 60 or so games year after year after year.  Sounds like a great plan.

Since you will forgive veterans any amount of poor play, perhaps the Twins should contact Terry Steinbach to see if he still wants to catch?  He's still hanging around New Ulm and was a hell of player back in the 1990s.  He might have something left in the tank...

Tsk, tsk, tsk , but they already know  how to field without getting negative numbers.

Julien

Farmer

[DocBauer]

I don't know that Julien being sent down really has an overly direct correlation to Larnach, Kirlloff, or Miranda, other than the fact that they are doing better so they didn't get sent down. But I do agree that celebrating this trio doing a much better job is a good thing. Miranda adapted his approach in 2021 and became the top prospect a lot of Twins officials had been hoping he might become. His 2022 rookie season offered up a lot of promise, with some of the usually speed bumps we see from such a young player. The way he's produced this season would seem to clearly indicate his forgettable 2023 season was due to his shoulder injury.

When it comes to Larnach and Kirilloff, I often think we need to remind ourselves that due to injuries, these former top 100 prospects are still sitting at less than 1000 ML plate appearances, and less than 800 ML AB's. Both have had their progress, and thus careers, slowed. Right now, it sure looks like Larnach has changed his approach and adapted well. He's doing well. Kirilloff started slow, slumped terribly, but has picked up power and production the past couple of weeks again. Here's hoping both can continue to improve and contribute as this year could be paramount to their futures. There are others directly behind them that would love the opportunity to prove they are ready.

One of those is Wallner. If it's best for him to stay at St Paul a little longer and continue to thrive and work on a couple things, that's fine with me. The Wallner we saw to begin this season is not the ballplayer we've seen at the milb or ML level previously. But he HAS been hot and producing and looking like the player we expect him to be. 

Speed bumps happen and not all development and career starts follow a linear path. I do think Julien has a great eye and a good bat. I swear when watching him at times that he knows the strike zone better than the umps. But he absolutely needs to adapt to the borderline outside calls and be more aggressive at times earlier in the count. Much like Larnach, AK, and Wallner, pitchers are going to throw him fewer fastballs. And he has to adapt. I have a lot of faith in him, and I think he's going to be back and be fine. But a reset sure seemed to be in order. 

[Doctor Gast]

Julien went down to AAA to make room for Lewis but the most important reason is to change his approach. Now that he's down together with Lee, they need to have Lee on 2B & Julien at 1B. 1B will be Julien long-term position so why not finally have him play there? Which is the next important reason.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Tsk, tsk, tsk , but they already know  how to field without getting negative numbers.

Julien

Farmer

RpR, you need to have some level of intelligence and fair-mindedness when discussing or commenting (thumbs down, etc.) on baseball players who you do not personally know. 

I cannot be completely objective about a couple of guys I have known for decades and refrain from any comments, even words of support in times where others use crazy thoughts.

All young players are not created equally and veterans do lose skills. MLB is a very difficult profession and Corbin Carroll is just one example of what some refer to as the sophomore jinx.

Defensive metrics are pointless and tell us that Carlos Correa is an inferior shortstop. Really? Kyle Farmer is genuinely liked by his teammates (if we just take their word on it from interviews and articles) and fans alike. I think Santana, Margot, and Vazquez are likely decent people as well. Vazquez seems to still be a good catcher but the others have seen a decline in their skills. Farmer, especially, is not the player on defense that he once was a couple of years ago or even last year. There is really no debate among professionals that Julien plays a better second base in 2024. Julien does need to make an adjustment at the plate to breaking pitches and be more aggressive on borderline pitches which is why he was sent to play for the Saints.

Just try to be somewhat objective, unless you are related or have a deep personal connection which naturally would make one favor a friend/family.

[yeahyabetcha]

9 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Wallner is close, if not ready.  Saving an injury, the casualty has to be Margot.  Margot would likely make it through waivers.  I think Julien NEEDS this hard reset.  His strike out rate (especially not swinging K's) must be addressed; especially if Julien is to become the player most of us think he can be.  He has to show significant improvement before being called up.  Otherwise, he might regress.  Barring that improvement, I could see Lee or Martin being the next infielder coming up.  

Margot’s usage lately has been largely against lefties only.  And when used like that he has definitely been better.   If those at bats are given to Wallner we could see a strike out percentage close to 50%

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Julien went down to AAA to make room for Lewis but the most important reason is to change his approach. Now that he's down together with Lee, they need to have Lee on 2B & Julien at 1B. 1B will be Julien long-term position so why not finally have him play there? Which is the next important reason.

Maybe Brooks Lee can play second base but it is a stretch to think he is a natural for the position. Julien is really struggling with a piece of wood in his hands and oddly is looking quite comfortable wearing a glove. There is a near zero chance Julien plays first base in St. Paul.

The position battles will come down to who can hit. The Twins are not hitting now and this run to the break in July should reveal who is ready to be in the lineup and who still needs AAA at bats.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe Brooks Lee can play second base but it is a stretch to think he is a natural for the position. Julien is really struggling with a piece of wood in his hands and oddly is looking quite comfortable wearing a glove. There is a near zero chance Julien plays first base in St. Paul.

The position battles will come down to who can hit. The Twins are not hitting now and this run to the break in July should reveal who is ready to be in the lineup and who still needs AAA at bats.

There's no stretch to see that Lee is a naturally great INFer but of course he needs time to get the feel at 2B, While Julien is overstretch at 2B, he really has to work at it. Therefore my suggesting that they should have Lee at 2B & Julien at 1B. Julien was a poor 2B in his MiLB career & started out MLB worse. It's really hard for me to see Julien improve as much as many say, I don't trust the defensive stats that they spin. Which protrays Julien as good & Correa & Santana worse than they are. It seems to me that somehow Correa & Santana are compensating for Julien to make him look better than he is.

Lee is a much better 2Bman than Julien naturally, he makes our whole INF better and has a leg up on Julien. Lee is a better overall hitter but Julien's approach make him more of a power hitter.

[RpR]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 Farmer, especially, is not the player on defense that he once was a couple of years ago or even last year. There is really no debate among professionals that Julien plays a better second base in 2024. Julien does need to make an adjustment at the plate to breaking pitches and be more aggressive on borderline pitches which is why he was sent to play for the Saints.

Just try to be somewhat objective, unless you are related or have a deep personal connection which naturally would make one favor a friend/family.

You do not like the stats. (on a forum that lives by stats).

I am as objective as the ones who trash Farmer, Margot, Vazquez regularly.

What you said above is your opinion, I have mine.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

There's no stretch to see that Lee is a naturally great INFer but of course he needs time to get the feel at 2B, While Julien is overstretch at 2B, he really has to work at it. Therefore my suggesting that they should have Lee at 2B & Julien at 1B. Julien was a poor 2B in his MiLB career & started out MLB worse. It's really hard for me to see Julien improve as much as many say, I don't trust the defensive stats that they spin. Which protrays Julien as good & Correa & Santana worse than they are. It seems to me that somehow Correa & Santana are compensating for Julien to make him look better than he is.

Lee is a much better 2Bman than Julien naturally, he makes our whole INF better and has a leg up on Julien. Lee is a better overall hitter but Julien's approach make him more of a power hitter.

The two players (Julien & Lee) are not a clean comparison. Julien is two years older and has only been a second baseman. Lee has experience mostly at shortstop where he has done well but projects commonly as a third baseman in an ideal scenario.

Too many people are living still with the often comical bungles of Julien when he first arrived to play second base last season. In fact there has been marked improvement in all facets of his defense and it would be mere stubbornness on the part of people to not see the changes. A number of tough evaluators have remarked on the progression. Julien has greater lateral movement right now than any of the others who have taken up that position in the last few years for the Twins. His transfers are still short of where one might want them to be but still remarkable better than last July and at the very least average or better for an MLB second baseman.

Right now Julien is really in a struggle with his swing and breaking balls are tearing him up. The major concern for Eddy is his bat at this time. The glove is not an issue at all at this time. Before Julien gets a chance to regain his job he has to straighten out his at bats. 

As far as Lee and Julien hitting, just compare their work at AA and AAA prior to this year. Brooks Lee has a ways to go with the bat before the Twins give him a look.

Hopefully both of these players find a way to excel at the major league level. Corbin Carroll is back in the lineup for the Diamondbacks and hitting .200 now. MLB is extremely challenging.