Make it Official! Twins 4, Kansas City 2: Early Runs Hold Up

[Peter]

Huge win last night!!! Bullpen will need rest but ober need to go deep today. Let’s win this series!!! 

[USAFChief]

48 minutes ago, wabene said:

The quality of Vazquez's throw was questioned in the game thread saying Correa made the play in spite of the throw being offline. I don't agree. They must work on that exact throw, up the line, closer to home plate. This seems new to me and quite an innovation. Obviously Correa is a tagging savant. I really only watch the Twins, are other teams doing this?

The throw from Vazquez was ~10~ ft off line. Guarantee they're not trying to throw to where Correa caught it. 

He got rid of it quickly, and he has a strong arm, but that caught stealing was in spite of the throw, not because of it. Tremendous catch and tag from Correa. 

Also tremendous pitching last night. Hope we see that Alcala a lot. 

[stringer bell]

There definitely is a trend throwing the ball more on the first base side when base stealers are running. With the head-first slide, there is a lot of body to tag the runner before the hand gets in and the base runner can more easily manipulate his hands and arms than the rest of his body. Vázquez' throw last night was pretty far to the first base side, maybe a bit more than desired, but Correa made a super quick tag and the runner was clearly out.

[UK Twin]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The throw from Vazquez was ~10~ ft off line. Guarantee they're not trying to throw to where Correa caught it. 

He got rid of it quickly, and he has a strong arm, but that caught stealing was in spite of the throw, not because of it. Tremendous catch and tag from Correa. 

Also tremendous pitching last night. Hope we see that Alcala a lot. 

Well, I think they are because it's not the first time Vazquez has thrown the ball way to the first base side of second and it's not the first time he's thrown a runner out like this. It certainly wasn't 10 feet off line. The fact a good baserunner was easily tagged out makes it a good throw. Correa is an elite SS - he can make these sorts of tags so makes absolute sense to throw it in the area Vazquez threw it.

[Squirrel]

41 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Correa won the game for the Twins, IMHO. Watching that sequence again, the throw from Vazquez was not going to be in time and a decent chance that it goes into the outfield. I can't think of another shortstop that makes that play. 

I agree on Correa but disagree on Vazquez. He threw the ball where it needed to go … ahead of the base. We’ve seen that from him all season. Have he and Correa talked/worked on that? Because Vazquez’ throws have always been up the line from second and Correa has been there to get it. Outstanding play all around, but I think both players get credit for that.

[jorgenswest]

52 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Correa won the game for the Twins, IMHO. Watching that sequence again, the throw from Vazquez was not going to be in time and a decent chance that it goes into the outfield. I can't think of another shortstop that makes that play. 

Vazquez threw the ball exactly where he planned and the only way to get that runner out. The new rule or emphasis for 2024 is blocking the bag and Vazquez and Correa have been working on this since spring training. The Athletic reported that the conversation on the mound was to execute the play exactly as we saw. Duran, Correa and Vazquez did a fantastic job getting that out.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I get what people are saying regarding the throw being on the first base side but that was to the extreme. Again, nothing against Vazquez. Just think that of the two (Correa, Vazquez), the former made that play what it was. Anyone else at short and that ball's in the outfield.

[FlyingFinn]

11 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I agree on Correa but disagree on Vazquez. He threw the ball where it needed to go … ahead of the base. We’ve seen that from him all season. Have he and Correa talked/worked on that?

Yes. Correa said on the post game show (radio) that they have practiced on having the throws go towards first base. Great play by both, even if the throw was a little more towards first base than planned.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The throw from Vazquez was ~10~ ft off line. Guarantee they're not trying to throw to where Correa caught it. 

He got rid of it quickly, and he has a strong arm, but that caught stealing was in spite of the throw, not because of it. Tremendous catch and tag from Correa. 

Also tremendous pitching last night. Hope we see that Alcala a lot. 

I agree that the throw was offline and high. I would also argue that is the beauty of not trying to make a perfect throw to the bag like in the past, but when you throw up the line and you have a guy like Correa, your margin for error is much greater. Instead of having to tag moving hand, you have a while body to aim for. Brilliant.

[dogsday]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

With all the injuries and oddities of this season, its 1/3 done. Seems like it is flying by!! 30-24 isn’t the worst but it could have been better. 

It hasn't been at all confidence inspiring, but if you told me the Twins would be playing at a 90 win pace at the end of May, I would have thought--perfect! The division is a lock and maybe they can catch lightening in a bottle for the playoffs.

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Also tremendous pitching last night. Hope we see that Alcala a lot. 

I think we will see that from Alcala if they don't ask him to go 2 innings any longer; most of his issues this season have been in the second inning when he's been asked to go two. (like the implosion vs Seattle). Hasn't given up a run in the first inning of any stint. He looks healthy and strong and ready to pitch higher leverage situations. Once Stewart gets back, the back end of our bullpen is a scary proposition from the RH side with Duran (even with his recent wobbles), Jax, Stewart, and Alcala. YMMV on Thielbar & Okert, but they've both been death to LH hitters.

the trickiest bit might be those middle innings if the starter doesn't go more than 5...

[David Maro]

Varland has to hope for a visit to the IL by one of the SP to see another chance.SWR has pitched more than well enough to stay in the rotation.There is a problem at this time with Duran,he has been pretty shaky in closing out games.Hopefully Ober will have a better outing than the first time he faced KC.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

The quality of Vazquez's throw was questioned in the game thread saying Correa made the play in spite of the throw being offline. I don't agree. They must work on that exact throw, up the line, closer to home plate. This seems new to me and quite an innovation. Obviously Correa is a tagging savant. I really only watch the Twins, are other teams doing this?

That play had been worked on since spring training between Correa & Vazquez. If Vazquez hadn't thrown the ball where he did the runner would have been safe. These defensive plays is the difference between a winning team & a losing team & they go unnoticed by many who can't appreciate the art of fine defense,

[Doctor Gast]

You look at SWR & his stats & you can be unimpressed but he keeps on winning with grit. His sweeper & 4seam FB were impressive last night. Lot of people like to rag on Vazquez & dislike giving him any credit but w/o him we probably wouldn't have won that game last night, Margot had a good night, 3 underdogs who had a pretty good game. Great job by the BP again, Alcala needs to be more involved in the Twins plans. 

A critical win, let's keep on winning!

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have now received more WAR from Woods Richardson (1.0) in 2024 than Toronto received from Berrios (0.9) in the 1-1/2 years the Twins traded them.

Depends where you look and how you quantify things. fWAR or bWAR? Quality starts? Winning percentage of games started? Berrios was massively better than his ERA suggests in Toronto. I like what SWR is doing, but...

I'd take Berrios today over SWR, no question. In 25 of his 44 starts with the Blue Jays in 2021-2022, Berrios left with 5.0+ innings pitched and an ERA of 4.05 or less. That's 57%, which is front line starter territory. The Blue Jays won 29 of those 44 games (107 win season pace).

Joe Ryan, over 2023-2024, has produced 18 starts in 40 attempts for the Twins or 45% with 5.0+ innings and an ERA of 4.05 or less and fans around here consider Ryan to be a front line starter it seems. The Twins have won 22 of the 40 games Ryan has started over that span (89 win season pace)

The pitcher most comparable to Berrios in our rotation is Pablo Lopez.

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Can we please now keep Alcala with the Twins? He's got great stuff and should be a fixture in the Twins bullpen. 

That tag play and caught stealing in the 9th was a thing of beauty. Such a big moment as well.

If we can take this series it will be a big win for us. KC had some serious momentum coming in and to take the first two games is big. 

No. He must be demoted after every game he pitches. It's mandatory.

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Varland has to hope for a visit to the IL by one of the SP to see another chance.SWR has pitched more than well enough to stay in the rotation.There is a problem at this time with Duran,he has been pretty shaky in closing out games.Hopefully Ober will have a better outing than the first time he faced KC.

I don't think Varland is ahead of Festa on the depth chart at this point. Last 4 starts at AAA 6.53 ERA, 4.53 FIP. 8.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.60 WHIP, gave up a HR every game for the last 3 games. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The throw from Vazquez was ~10~ ft off line. Guarantee they're not trying to throw to where Correa caught it. 

He got rid of it quickly, and he has a strong arm, but that caught stealing was in spite of the throw, not because of it. Tremendous catch and tag from Correa. 

Also tremendous pitching last night. Hope we see that Alcala a lot. 

If that throw was 10 feet off-line then the runner is a very slow runner as he was tagged in the buttocks.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Depends where you look and how you quantify things. fWAR or bWAR?

That was bWAR. For fWAR Woods Richardson is at 0.9 in 2024 and Berrios total for that 1-1/2 years was 2.8.

What Berrios is doing in 2024 is irrelevant because the Twins did not control him past 2022.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

That play had been worked on since spring training between Correa & Vazquez. If Vazquez hadn't thrown the ball where he did the runner would have been safe. These defensive plays is the difference between a winning team & a losing team & they go unnoticed by many who can't appreciate the art of fine defense,

Great job of Duran holding the ball, varying the timing and the slide step. Really perfectly executed by all three and the runner wasn’t even close to the bag when tagged.

[Doctor Gast]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Great job of Duran holding the ball, varying the timing and the slide step. Really perfectly executed by all three and the runner wasn’t even close to the bag when tagged.

Very true, it was perfect collaboration of all 3 to get the speedy runner. Who would have stolen 2B & kept the rally going w/o that great play

[Schmoeman5]

10 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Hey, 1-for-4 today with a run scored.  Baby steps, baby!  😎

His 1 hit that wasn't.

[DocBauer]

On the "good surprise" of the 2023 ledger so far, SWR has to be #1. He's been solid to good in all but like one start so far. For a rookie 5th starter, I don't know that we could ask for more. He starts getting a few more K's and can get through 6 instead of 5, he might be a #3.

Was Vazquez's throw a couple inches or so wide? Maybe. But they have pulled that play numerous times this year. Get the throw off quick, make sure it's clearly on the 1B side of the bag, and then snap the glove down quickly. Don't have to worry about a hand sliding in ahead of the tag. The runner was out by a good 3 feet. Crazy good!

Hey, Julien came through with a big hit! Slump over?

And WOW, look what Alcala can do when asked to only throw a single inning. Especially with Stewart out, he should be in a 7th-8th inning role for a single inning each time. Let someone else like Sands go 2 at a time. And Winder is ramping up nicely at AAA for that kind of role as well.

Man, I want all 4 of these games against KC so badly!

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Depends where you look and how you quantify things. fWAR or bWAR? Quality starts? Winning percentage of games started? Berrios was massively better than his ERA suggests in Toronto. I like what SWR is doing, but...

I'd take Berrios today over SWR, no question. In 25 of his 44 starts with the Blue Jays in 2021-2022, Berrios left with 5.0+ innings pitched and an ERA of 4.05 or less. That's 57%, which is front line starter territory. The Blue Jays won 29 of those 44 games (107 win season pace).

Joe Ryan, over 2023-2024, has produced 18 starts in 40 attempts for the Twins or 45% with 5.0+ innings and an ERA of 4.05 or less and fans around here consider Ryan to be a front line starter it seems. The Twins have won 22 of the 40 games Ryan has started over that span (89 win season pace)

The pitcher most comparable to Berrios in our rotation is Pablo Lopez.

I'm not a huge fan of fWAR for pitchers because it doesn't reflect as well what actually occurred in the game as well as bWAR does. (It can be a better predictor of future results, but in terms of what actually happened, maybe not)

If all you're looking at is pure performance than sure you might take Berrios over SWR, but cost has to be part of the equation here. SWR is a minimum salary guy and Berrios is clocking $18M per.

Pablo has been better than Berrios the last 2 seasons; so far Berrios has been better this year. The biggest advantage Berrios has over Lopez is better health. Berrios is at least as close Ryan as he is to Lopez, but the comps are always going to be troublesome because Lopez is 2 years younger than Berrios as is Ryan (who also didn't get a chance to pitch in MLB until he was 25)

A big part of why Berrios was dealt and SWR was acquired was due to salary and contracts and ignoring that is a little silly.

[jorgenswest]

Glad to have Woods Richardson. I really think Berrios, Woods Richardson and Martin need to be tied to the Sonny Gray trade. The Twins don’t need to pay Berrios so they have a slot for Gray. They don’t make the move for Gray if they still have Berrios.

Additions: Gray (2 years), SWR, Martin

Cost: Berrios (1+ year) and Petty.

If they had kept Berrios through his contract, I think they still have Petty. They will get a comp pick for Gray but I didn’t add that to the ledger since they would have probably got a pick for Berrios too.

If they extended Berrios then I think they probably don’t give Lopez an extension and the comp pick needs to go back on the addition side of the ledger.

Gray was so valuable last year that the moves were an overall win but Petty could easily out perform Woods Richardson and Martin in the end. I will acknowledge Petty’s first two months of AA this year have been a struggle.