Joe Ryan Emerging as the Pitcher Minnesota Needed

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins had a sizable hole to fill in the rotation this offseason. Deciding to let Sonny Gray walk, and looking for another top-of-the-rotation starter, they never acquired that player. Looking for someone to compete at a Cy Young level, the early returns have proven to show Joe Ryan is it.

 

Paying big money for an aging Sonny Gray over multiple years was never something Minnesota would have considered. Had ownership opened up the purse strings a bit, Derek Falvey also wouldn’t have had to target Anthony DeSclafani off of the scrap heap. Still, the rotation needed Pablo Lopez to find another gear, Bailey Ober to step up, and Joe Ryan to be the best version of himself. Two-thirds of those things have happened, but it has been how good Ryan has been that might be the most surprising.

The Twins acquiring Ryan from the Tampa Bay Rays for the ghost of Nelson Cruz always seemed like something of a coup. The way in which he has been developed, and how he has evolved as a pitcher, has only made it look like even more of a come up. A solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher last year, Ryan now is flirting with Cy Young candidacy.

It isn’t as though the 3.15 ERA is otherworldly at this point, but Ryan owns a 2.78 xERA and a 3.02 FIP. His command has produced the lowest walk rate of his career, and that’s impressive for a guy that has never significantly handed out free passes. Bit by the home run previously, he is still allowing 1.1 per nine, but that’s the best mark of his career, and his H/9 is special. With a WHIP below 1.000, Ryan is putting it all together.

Keeping batters off balance has been a constant this season for Ryan as well. His 28% hard hit rate is reflective of a career low, and he’s forcing batters to put the ball on the ground more than he ever has before.

The results are also a byproduct of a new pitch mix. Known for being a guy who throws a high spin fastball up in the zone, the Twins have Ryan flipping that pitch just 46.5% of the time, a career-low. He’s incorporated a cutter in a very limited fashion, but substantially upped the usage of his changeup, and his slider is being featured more than ever.

Opposing batters have been forced to attack Ryan differently this season, and with the way he has changed his repertoire, he has had the advantage. With just two starts in which he has allowed four runs, the rest of his outings have been almost identical in that you can count on the strikeouts and a quality outing each time he takes the ball.

Rocco Baldelli will likely watch the overall effectiveness of his starters shift as the season goes on. It seems unlikely that Pablo Lopez will be stuck in this rut, and there is reason to believe Simeon Woods Richardson may see some regression. Chris Paddack has been great given what’s expected of him, and that means Ober and Ryan are key cogs to how this team flows.

Should Ryan continue to substantiate this level of performance, both he and the Twins stand to benefit. At 1.5 fWAR he leads all Minnesota pitchers and is 14th across baseball as a whole. That’s not only good for a guy grabbed in exchange for a 40-year-old designated hitter, but it’s incredible for a starter looking to push towards the upper echelon in the sport.

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[Doctor Wu]

Ryan has been the most consistent member of the starting rotation thus far this season. I would guess that he is due for a meltdown of sorts at some time during the season, but then again maybe he will prove me and the other doubters wrong, and continue to pitch well. No, he's probably not going to challenge Pablo for the Cy Young award (sorry, I couldn't help it!), but when September rolls around, he may be the guy on the mound that we are pinning our hopes on. 

[Fezig]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Ryan has been the most consistent member of the starting rotation thus far this season. I would guess that he is due for a meltdown of sorts at some time during the season, but then again maybe he will prove me and the other doubters wrong, and continue to pitch well. No, he's probably not going to challenge Pablo for the Cy Young award (sorry, I couldn't help it!), but when September rolls around, he may be the guy on the mound that we are pinning our hopes on. 

The way Pablo is pitching right now I could challenge him for the Cy Young award.

[Mottee]

As a Twins fan, I've been thrilled to see Joe Ryan's growth this season. His ability to adapt on the mound is really paying off. Go Twins!

[Fatbat]

I have been waiting for a write up on Ryans ‘24 season. His ‘23 season started out just as well but that hiding of the leg injury messed up last season and the confidence mgmnt had in him.  He clearly looks like he is on a mission to be the best. He is oozing confidence. We simply need to see if he will stay healthy and keep batters off balance for a full season and playoff run. 

[Karbo]

Not 1/2 way through the season yet, but so far so good. Other teams are going to make some adjustments against him so the test will come as he makes adjustments to those.

[USAFChief]

Through May 24 last year, Ryan was 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA.

Let's hold off a bit on the CY talk.

[mikelink45]

I'm delighted that he's doing so well, but very disappointed that Pablo is having such an inconsistent season. By the way, how is Sonny gray working out?

[Patzky]

15 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I'm delighted that he's doing so well, but very disappointed that Pablo is having such an inconsistent season. By the way, how is Sonny gray working out?

Funny you mentioned Sonny.. five shutout innings last night against the Cubs then he checked himself out of the game.

 

You never truly de-Rocco.

[USAFChief]

Off topic, but FTR Sonny Gray is 7-2 with a 2.6 ERA. As many IP as Bailey Ober.

 

[Fatbat]

26 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Funny you mentioned Sonny.. five shutout innings last night against the Cubs then he checked himself out of the game.

 

You never truly de-Rocco.

Sonny gets paid the same for 5 inning or 7. Rocco definitely rubbed off on him! 

[Doctor Gast]

26 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Funny you mentioned Sonny.. five shutout innings last night against the Cubs then he checked himself out of the game.

 

You never truly de-Rocco.

Gray checked himself out? Maybe Gray came to the conclusion that everybody's human, getting older & needs to pitch accordingly.

[Doctor Gast]

As your article indicates Ryan is pitching smarter & his record & stats are showing this. But the real test will come when he's pitching against top teams in critical situations & if he can avoid HRs in those situations. IMO he will eventually get to the CY level but he still has some proving to do.

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Gray checked himself out? Maybe Gray came to the conclusion that everybody's human, getting older & needs to pitch accordingly.

Is what Cardinals post indicated. Humid conditions but 75 pitches. He did good but was never the most efficient guy.

[DJL44]

If Ryan finishes in the top 3 in the AL CYA voting the Twins get an extra draft pick.

[LambchoP]

Twins still need another top tier starter if they hope to win a playoff series this year. It's good to see Ryan doing well but he looked this good last year too, and then the second half happened. 

[TopGunn#22]

We seen this before from Ryan, as USAFChief pointed out.  The key for Ryan is to avoid the 10-game stretch where he gives up 3 HR's a game.  Historically, he just hasn't been able to sustain what he's showed over last year's first half and now this this year.  

Don't get me wrong, I'll take what he's done so far.  But with Pablo struggling mightily, Joe needs to put an entire season like this together.  I'm also worried about SWR and regression.  He's been rock solid so far.  Much better than the Twins actually hoped.  And Paddack has been better than what I think the Twins were realistically expecting.  

We are falling further behind Cleveland and the Royals, even with this "bonus juice" from the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation.  I wonder if the Twins would consider making a move for Jesus Luzardo if the price was right.  I expect the Marlins to be having a garage sale, possibly even a little before the actual trade deadline.  There is always Festa to consider as well, but I wonder when arms like Paddack and Varland start getting consideration for a bullpen move.  

[hitterscount]

7 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Twins still need another top tier starter if they hope to win a playoff series this year. It's good to see Ryan doing well but he looked this good last year too, and then the second half happened. 

As of now they are not making the playoffs. The pitching staff has been pretty good, the bats are more concerning. You are correct, if they were able to make the playoffs it will probably be as a wildcard team, another starter may not be needed in that series... Howver they are one starter injury away from being in big trouble.

[Whitey333]

Pablo Lopez for Cy Young?  Have you been watching?  He's pretty mediocre so far.

[wabene]

4 hours ago, Patzky said:

Funny you mentioned Sonny.. five shutout innings last night against the Cubs then he checked himself out of the game.

 

You never truly de-Rocco.

 

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Sonny gets paid the same for 5 inning or 7. Rocco definitely rubbed off on him! 

Yeah Rocco "Quickhook" Baldelli, you know the guy that guided Sonny Gray to his most innings pitched since 2015. The guy that helped put tens of millions in Sonny's pocket, har dee har, good one.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Through May 24 last year, Ryan was 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA.

Let's hold off a bit on the CY talk.

He did get hurt last year and that messed up at least 2 months (poor performances mixed with missed time) for him.

He was at 3.15 ERA heading into Monday’s game. Through 5 2/3 he’s given up 1 run. He’s got 9 strikeouts NOW through 6 complete. His WHIP is under 1.00……73 K’s over 66 innings - with an updated ERA of 3.00. Headed back out for the 7th…….definitely sharp this afternoon.

If he stays healthy he looks like he’ll have a shot at 15 wins.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

 

Yeah Rocco "Quickhook" Baldelli, you know the guy that guided Sonny Gray to his most innings pitched since 2015. The guy that helped put tens of millions in Sonny's pocket, har dee har, good one.

Im sure he loves pitching for a team that gives him run support! 

[gil4]

7 hours ago, hitterscount said:

As of now they are not making the playoffs. 

As bad as they have been, they are in the final wildcard spot right now.

[DJL44]

Every year this trade gets better. It might go down as one of the top 5 trades the Twins have ever made. They dealt a below average veteran DH with no future on the team for a top of the rotation starter. That's like the platonic ideal of a trade.

[awmonahan]

I feel like Joe has been consistently under valued by the fan base. Last year's issue not telling the staff he was hurt didn't help. But he's always working and tweaking his pitch mix, and he seems very poised. I'm thinking he can ride this wave a while, but it's a long season. 

[hitterscount]

3 hours ago, gil4 said:

As bad as they have been, they are in the final wildcard spot right now.

My bad... you're correct, 3 WC teams, they would play Seattle in Seattle. Still a lot of work to do, starting with taking 2 of the remaining 3.