Pablo López and the Path to a Cy Young

Lopez has shown that he can put together incredible, dominant games where he can shut down any team. He's absolutely a number one starter, an ace by almost any definition. To contend for a Cy, he'll need to string some of those dominant games together to build a narrative too. He only had 2 stretches where he had a few poor outings bunched together; dropping those off is the other part to it. (2 weeks in May/June where he had Game Scores under 50 in 3 out of 4 outings, and then a relative meh finish to the season, with only one really standout performance in the last 7)

I think he has all of the qualities to keep improving as a pitcher. I think he'll be a serious contender, and that's great for the Twins.

To be fair, we are swapping Gray,Mahle,Maeda for Ober,Paddack,DeSclafani. We have also reloaded Ober,Varland,SWR with Varland,SWR,Festa,Lewis. Now, had we added anyone of the top FA’s or traded for a stud, we would have a top 3-4 rotation in MLB. 
Pablo is definitely a top 5-6 pick in the AL a CyYoung every year for the foreseeable future. 

IMO Lopez was underrated last year & should have gotten more recognition. At the end of the season, Lopez was arguably the best SP. Lopez should be one of those on the top of the list in '24. His durability should play a large role.

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24. Hey. It'd be great if he made that jump to CY winner. I just don't see it happening. I find it amazing that some players get heaped with over exuberant expectations based on 1 good year. Lewis is being mentioned as a potential mvp with a 1/2 a year under his belt. He was injured several times last year included at years end where he was playing hurt. According to the posts on TD the Twins will be 1 2 3 in MVP and Cy Young winner in 2024. World Champions here they come

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Lopez was underrated last year & should have gotten more recognition. At the end of the season, Lopez was arguably the best SP. Lopez should be one of those on the top of the list in '24. His durability should play a large role.

You aren’t wrong. There was a significant stretch that I would’ve argued him as the Twins leading Cy Young candidate over Gray.

11 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24.

I think one thing you are massively discrediting is the organization he came from in relation to the one he joined. The next investment the Marlins make in serious player development will be their first. Lopez taking a steal forward joining Minnesota from Miami isn’t a mistake.

7 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I think one thing you are massively discrediting is the organization he came from in relation to the one he joined. The next investment the Marlins make in serious player development will be their first. Lopez taking a steal forward joining Minnesota from Miami isn’t a mistake.

So you're saying that Alcantra and Luzardo are just wasting away in Miami and the Twins are churning out reclamation project Cy Young winners. I call hooey. And Miami has produced some good young arms in their 26 years of existence. And I never insinuated that the deal for Lopez is a mistake. I'd make that deal every day. 

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So you're saying that Alcantra and Luzardo are just wasting away in Miami and the Twins are churning out reclamation project Cy Young winners. I call hooey. And Miami has produced some good young arms in their 26 years of existence. And I never insinuated that the deal for Lopez is a mistake. I'd make that deal every day. 

I don't think they are incapable of having solid players, but the organization doesn't have a solid track record (especially recently) for being at the forefront of anything. I don't think you were suggesting the deal wasn't worthwhile, absolutely it was. I do think it's hard to believe that Lopez has found his ceiling though, especially with another year to work with Minnesota's staff.

9 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Reminder for everyone disappointed in not bringing in another top of the rotation piece, this is what they are aiming for. It's a tough needle to thread and if they don't think they have another chance at something like Pablo, I'm OK with not making the move.

To be fair, those things aren't mutually exclusive.

It's beyond fair to think that Ryan or Ober could step up in a big way. It's also fair to have hoped for something better than DeSclafani or banking on 125+ innings from Paddack would be occupying the 4/5 spots.

6 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24. Hey. It'd be great if he made that jump to CY winner. I just don't see it happening. I find it amazing that some players get heaped with over exuberant expectations based on 1 good year. Lewis is being mentioned as a potential mvp with a 1/2 a year under his belt. He was injured several times last year included at years end where he was playing hurt. According to the posts on TD the Twins will be 1 2 3 in MVP and Cy Young winner in 2024. World Champions here they come

There are lots of possibilities. These young guys are wound so tight and seem to be fragile to the point that they never play a full season. Its only lottery odds that everyone stays healthy and performs at the highest of levels for 162 games. 

IMO, Cole is easily the front runner for the CY Young. He is durable (30, 33, 33 starts) he strikes out guys (243, 257, 222) , he pitches innings (181,33, 200,66, 209) and he wins games (16,13,15). On top of Cy young finishes of 5, 2, 4, 2, 9, 1 the last 6 years.

Also we haven't really see that Twins pitcher really make a improvement over there best year being the year before. (Gray's really only improvement last year compared to the year before was innings/health) I hope Lopez changes that trend or at least just pitches like he did last year.