Injuries Have Created Major Cracks in the Twins Defense

[Hunter McCall]

Early injuries have defanged the Minnesota Twins lineup. It's not only on offense that the impact of those losses has been felt, though.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023, the Minnesota Twins finished ninth in Major League Baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), despite Byron Buxton never stepping foot in the outfield. Buck is back in 2024 and looks like his usual spectacular self in the field, yet the team is 27th in the league in DRS to start the year, at -10. With players like Willi Castro, Austin Martin, Manuel Margot, and Alex Kirilloff all thrust into different defensive roles due to the injuries suffered by Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Royce Lewis, as well as the demotion of Matt Wallner, how is defensive stress impacting the Twins?

On paper, the 2024 Twins were projected to align even better defensively than 2023. The loss of Michael A. Taylor was to be offset by Buxton’s return to the field, coupled with the addition of defense-first outfielder Manuel Margot. Correa’s plantar fasciitis (which plagued him in 2023) was gone, and fellow infielder and playoff star Royce Lewis was healthy enough to take over duties at third base. Unfortunately, a wrench was thrown into this defensive alignment early, forcing the team to adjust.

To this point, the adjustment hasn’t gone very well. As I mentioned, the Twins rank 27th out of 30 in DRS. The most difficult fielder to replace has been Correa. Castro has taken over as the primary shortstop in his absence, accounting for -4 DRS in just 92 innings. While Castro has produced +1 Out Above Average (OAA), according to Statcast, he isn’t as productive at the position as the former Platinum Glove winner. Castro has struggled to play out of position as the Band-Aid shortstop. He should be looking forward to Correa's return, whereupon he can go back to being a utility man.

Rookie Austin Martin has also been thrust into his debut earlier than anticipated in the young season. While Martin has looked increasingly comfortable at the plate, he continues to work to find his footing in the field. So far, Martin has accounted for -4 DRS and -1 OAA in his early action across all three outfield spots. While the defensive metrics aren’t ideal, Martin possesses excellent athleticism and should be able to work through the kinks by getting experience under his belt. He’s already making an impact at the plate, and I’d be willing to bet his defense will also improve. I think Martin has shown enough to believe he can remain with the team as a utility player for the remainder of the season.

Margot has been among the biggest disappointments of the 2024 season (I would call him the biggest, but I understand that Carlos Santana exists). Brought in as a Buxton insurance option, Margot was signed due to his impressive defensive résumé, with a bat somewhere around league average. He came with a similar skillset to Taylor, whom the Twins traded for prior to the 2023 season. Unlike Taylor, though, Margot has yet to bring his glove or his bat. So far, Margot has accounted for -2 DRS and -1 OAA, along with his .521 OPS at the plate.

The most surprising development about Margot is that the Twins haven’t even allowed him to play center field with any regularity. So far, he has only played four innings in center, the position for which he was presumably brought in to provide vital depth. Either the Twins don’t trust Margot out there, or they want to get Martin playing time out there when Buxton needs a day off. It could be that they prefer Martin's athleticism over Margot's declining speed (down almost 2 feet per second in Statcast sprint speed since last season).

Either way, Margot has struggled to provide his typical defense even in the corners, which has contributed to some crummy defensive stats for the team. If he is to remain on the team for the duration of the season, he would benefit from having his playing time limited to a platoon outfielder role, but that, too, depends on others getting healthy and performing as they're able.

There are others to whom the finger can be pointed for some blame in the defensive woes early. Kirilloff has some bad defensive metrics, but he is moving from the infield to the outfield fairly frequently, which is a tall task for someone who likely didn’t spend much time preparing to do so during the offseason. As the team’s original primary DH, Kirilloff has been asked to play not only more positions than expected, but more defense, in general.

The good news is that the key injuries that have stretched the Twins thin defensively are starting to mend. Kepler recently returned to the lineup, allowing for more flexibility in the outfield, and Correa shouldn’t be far behind. Lewis seems to be progressing well, and fingers are crossed that he can return in early June. These three players make a massive difference in the lineup and the field, not only because they’re great players, but because they allow role players like Castro, Margot, and Martin to return to the roles the team initially envisioned for them.

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What are your thoughts on the Twins’ early defense? How can the team adjust? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[mikelink45]

I am curious where the plus and minuses are throughout the lineup.  How are Jeffers and Vasquez rating this year?  There has been a lot of talk about Julien, what is his defense rated?  And out hitless first baseman is there for his glove now - is he that good?

[dxpavelka]

I think Margot was brought in to play CF on Buxton's down days.  Part of the plan had to be a contingency in case those down days were EVERY day.  Also, had Kepler not gone down there is a real chance that Martin would not yet be up and Margot would have gotten some run in CF.  Funny how we as fans and pundits are all over moves that at the moment are not working out although even we admit they made sense at the time they were made.  Some of them will still end up working out and some will not.  Nobody knows for sure before the season or even now. 

[Jocko87]

Not having Correa out there regularly makes me appreciate his defense even more. Castro is just OK and I can think over several plays where Carlos would get an out that Willis didn't. Massive difference.

I know there have been a couple odd plays but the eye test says Miranda has been pretty functional at third base. He'll never be Brooks anyone over there but if he's hitting it's good enough.

Margot far below as advertised. I liked the idea of less bat more defensive in this roster spot but the defense has to be plusplus. If the defense is only average, give me a masher.

[laloesch]

Considering this is Austin Martin's first extended stretch in the majors I'm happy with what he's done so far.  He will get better defensively.

[stringer bell]

Baldelli and the coaching staff have seen these players more than anyone. I think it is very significant that Austin Martin is the center fielder when Buxton isn't out there and that Willi Castro is the shortstop with Correa out. IIRC, the sole reason for Martin's negative ratings as a defender come from his first start in center on Easter Sunday. Balls evaded him in front, behind and to the sides as the Royals mashed Bailey Ober. 

If Margot has lost two feet of sprint speed in one year, he goes from a plus defender to average. His hitting hasn't been good enough to get a regular job ever and if he's only an average fielder, it would appear he never will.

Finally, if the Twins thought Martin was superior to Margot in center and that Willi Castro was their best option to back up Correa, why bring back Farmer and acquire Margot?

[Doctor Wu]

Margot certainly hasn't hit as well as expected, but the biggest disappointment for me so far this season has been Kyle Farmer. A very valuable utility player and sometime starter last year, but he hasn't done much to warrant any more playing time this season. 

[Doctor Gast]

With Lewis going down it put a lot more stress on Correa. Correa has been highly depended upon to take up the big slack in the INF. Now in the absence of Correa the INF has greatly floundered & become a great sore spot.

OF is a different story. Kepler is a great RFer but RF isn't a premium position & with Platnium glove Buxton at the premium position CF. Buxton is able to take up the slack with capable subs.

Although we desperately need the return of our spark plug Lewis. Defensively we desperately need the return of Correa. IMO with less need of Martin in the OF with Buxton good health. He'd be more needed at 2B to better our INF.

[Doctor Gast]

34 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Baldelli and the coaching staff have seen these players more than anyone. I think it is very significant that Austin Martin is the center fielder when Buxton isn't out there and that Willi Castro is the shortstop with Correa out. IIRC, the sole reason for Martin's negative ratings as a defender come from his first start in center on Easter Sunday. Balls evaded him in front, behind and to the sides as the Royals mashed Bailey Ober. 

If Margot has lost two feet of sprint speed in one year, he goes from a plus defender to average. His hitting hasn't been good enough to get a regular job ever and if he's only an average fielder, it would appear he never will.

Finally, if the Twins thought Martin was superior to Margot in center and that Willi Castro was their best option to back up Correa, why bring back Farmer and acquire Margot?

Very good insight on Martin. I was against the acquisition of both Margot & Santana. Farmer is a very steady bench player that should really mash against LHPs. The fact that he isn't is very uncharacteristic of him. There's something very wrong going on, maybe he's hurt, or poor mechanics he picked up that screwed up his swing & caused SOs. Whatever it is, the Twins need to find out what it is & correct it.

[Jocko87]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

Very good insight on Martin. I was against the acquisition of both Margot & Santana. Farmer is a very steady bench player that should really mash against LHPs. The fact that he isn't is very uncharacteristic of him. There's something very wrong going on & the Twins need to find out what it is & correct it.

I just posted in the game recap thread that I'm now wondering if Farmer is hurting or playing through an injury. He's so far from himself it might explain a lot, including why Castro is playing short over him.

Putting him on the IL would be a huge roster crunch and they might just need the warm body.

[MinnInPa]

inability to make contact with a baseball has put Major Cracks in Twins ability to score runs

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I just posted in the game recap thread that I'm now wondering if Farmer is hurting or playing through an injury. He's so far from himself it might explain a lot, including why Castro is playing short over him.

Putting him on the IL would be a huge roster crunch and they might just need the warm body.

I was wondering the same thing & I added it to my original comment. I also wondered that he might have picked up some bad mechanics that screwed up his swing & increased his SOs. His hitting is very uncharacteristic of him.

Maybe the talk of trying Martin out at 3B (IMO is a bad idea) could be the result of maybe doing something with Farmer. Even if it's a fake injury, it's an excuse for him to correct what's wrong.

[jorgenswest]

Edouard Julien’s hard work with the glove is evident with the eye and is showing up in the numbers. I think he is at least nearing an average 2B with the glove. Julien is second on the team with +2 OAA behind Buxton’s +3. Julien’s DRS is -1 but his UZR is positive as well as his FRV. Is his defense to the point where they don’t need to replace him at the end of games?

The next step is starting against lefties. Farmer started at 2B yesterday and saw the left handed starter twice among his 4 at bats. Would it have been so bad to have Julien batting in that spot and see that lefty twice before the right handed pitcher was brought in?

[KBJ1]

I have said all along that $15M was wasted on DeSclafani,  Santana & Margot.

We already had and have been forced to use Varland, Martin & Miranda.

Farmers struggles mystify me the most.

Since we didn't spend that $15M on pitching, we now have to hope SWR can grab the job.

Meanwhile cut Margot & Santana loose as soon as we get people back.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I just posted in the game recap thread that I'm now wondering if Farmer is hurting or playing through an injury.

With the sudden drop in speed for Margot it's possible he is also injured.

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

With the sudden drop in speed for Margot it's possible he is also injured.

And without a DFA or 60 day move they are basically down to Severino until Wallner is eligible? Yunior ain't much defensive help either.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

And without a DFA or 60 day move they are basically down to Severino until Wallner is eligible? Yunior ain't much defensive help either.

Royce Lewis is clearly a 60 day IL candidate. Would they add Keirsey to the 40 man and give him his debut or go with someone they feel comfortable cutting like Diego Castillo?

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Margot certainly hasn't hit as well as expected, but the biggest disappointment for me so far this season has been Kyle Farmer. A very valuable utility player and sometime starter last year, but he hasn't done much to warrant any more playing time this season. 

Farmer has fallen off a cliff and I don't get it either.  The Twins acquired Margot for a bag of chips and I don't think he will be on the team for long as long as players get healthy.  Wallner waking up and returning to the majors could/would hasten Morgot's departure.

[Jeff K]

46 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Edouard Julien’s hard work with the glove is evident with the eye and is showing up in the numbers. I think he is at least nearing an average 2B with the glove. Julien is second on the team with +2 OAA behind Buxton’s +3. Julien’s DRS is -1 but his UZR is positive as well as his FRV. Is his defense to the point where they don’t need to replace him at the end of games?

The next step is starting against lefties. Farmer started at 2B yesterday and saw the left handed starter twice among his 4 at bats. Would it have been so bad to have Julien batting in that spot and see that lefty twice before the right handed pitcher was brought in?

I think Farmer struck out 3 times yesterday...so that didn't work out.  Nothing has worked out for Farmer thus far.  So weird after being a key player last season.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Backups are backups for a reason.  Expecting Margot to be the second coming is unfair.  These types of signings always carry risk...

Farmer and Santana, not just struggling but being horrific on offensive, are two of the biggest let-downs so far this year.  They continue to be thrust out there because of lack of institutional choices at the moment.

[Hunter McCall]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am curious where the plus and minuses are throughout the lineup.  How are Jeffers and Vasquez rating this year?  There has been a lot of talk about Julien, what is his defense rated?  And out hitless first baseman is there for his glove now - is he that good?

Good question! Vazquez has been a really solid catcher defensively. Both the eye test and the metrics support that. His bat has been not great, but he's a very good defensive catcher. He's tied for the team lead in DRS with +2. Ed Julien has been much improved defensively. He's at +2 OAA and -1 DRS. This is pretty good for a guy that once looked like he wasn't going to figure it out at second base.

Carlos Santana has been a fine defender this year at first base and is clearly better defensively than any other option. This is why we continue to see him in the lineup. He finished 2023 28th among all players in DRS. The hope is the bat can positively regress to close to league average and end up being worth the money that was paid to him. He better figure it out soon though because with every player returning from injury, the greater risk that the team decides to cut ties.

[RpR]

35 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

... Wallner waking up and returning to the majors could/would hasten Morgot's departure.

To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
To run where the brave dare not go

[RpR]

35 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I think Farmer struck out 3 times yesterday...so that didn't work out.  Nothing has worked out for Farmer thus far.  So weird after being a key player last season.

Games back , he was hitting the ball with few Ks, now he is desperate and chasing crap.

[Eris]

Per Fangraphs, Margot has not had a year with positive defensive metrics since 2021. Not sure why he should be considered a defensive first outfielder. 
 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/manuel-margot/14712/stats?position=OF

Where is is the current generation of Nick Punto when need him. The modern version of Nick Punto would not be on this team because he can not hit.  But wait, the hitters aren’t hitting and we are stuck with the worst of both worlds. 

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Eris said:

Where is is the current generation of Nick Punto when need him.

He's playing SS at the moment.

[RpR]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am curious where the plus and minuses are throughout the lineup.    There has been a lot of talk about Julien, what is his defense rated? 

[mrcharlie]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Baldelli and the coaching staff have seen these players more than anyone. I think it is very significant that Austin Martin is the center fielder when Buxton isn't out there and that Willi Castro is the shortstop with Correa out. IIRC, the sole reason for Martin's negative ratings as a defender come from his first start in center on Easter Sunday. Balls evaded him in front, behind and to the sides as the Royals mashed Bailey Ober. 

If Margot has lost two feet of sprint speed in one year, he goes from a plus defender to average. His hitting hasn't been good enough to get a regular job ever and if he's only an average fielder, it would appear he never will.

Finally, if the Twins thought Martin was superior to Margot in center and that Willi Castro was their best option to back up Correa, why bring back Farmer and acquire Margot?

RE your final point.

I don't think the FO thought it through.  Or, if they did it was not a discussion they had with Rocko and his staff.  I fail to understand the practice of bringing in veterans who's better days are behind them or rate out as average when we have players ready and eager to prove themselves.  I am ok with rookie mistakes vs veterans going through the motions.

 

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Backups are backups for a reason.  Expecting Margot to be the second coming is unfair.  These types of signings always carry risk...

Farmer and Santana, not just struggling but being horrific on offensive, are two of the biggest let-downs so far this year.  They continue to be thrust out there because of lack of institutional choices at the moment.

Farmer has one more PA than Margot.

[Schmoeman5]

8 hours ago, RpR said:

What's the point? What are you trying to say? Who does this represent? I assume it's Julien by the players age. 

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

What's the point? What are you trying to say? Who does this represent? I assume it's Julien by the players age. 

The person quoted asked about Juliens defense.