Do the Twins Have a Process at the Plate?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins lineup has been one of the most frustrating parts of the roster for each of the past two seasons. While it saw a significant uptick in the second half last year, its reverted to the same poor tendencies that we saw out of the gate. What is the process, and why is it being implemented?

 

At this point, all things should be on the table for the Twins when looking to shake things up offensively. Carlos Correa was Rocco Baldelli’s best hitter when he went on the injured list, and he’s at least a couple of weeks away from a return. Royce Lewis was lost immediately, and he’s even further out.

Minnesota has a terrible .461 OPS with runners in scoring position and has gone 1-for-14 with a 7/1 K/BB with the bases loaded. The league average OPS with runners in scoring position is .744 and teams own a .713 OPS with the bases loaded. Putting a starting pitcher’s back against the wall often opens them up to a crooked number, but the Twins have wilted.

The results, or lack thereof, speak for themselves, but it’s the process that seems broken as well. While it’s assumed that the club is constructed solely to be boppers that launch home runs and celebrate strikeouts, that’s not entirely true. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo were jettisoned with the idea that Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana could even out contact rates. The club knows the 2019 baseball isn’t still in play, and while they aren’t playing station-to-station, they are clearly trying to elevate the baseball.

At the big league level, there are very few ways to find success by putting the ball on the ground. It’s a process that hampered Max Kepler for years, and it was during both 2019 and 2023 when he found success that he was elevating the ball with ideal launch angle trajectories. Right now though, the 2024 team appears to be almost entirely cut from the mold that replicates the worst version of Kepler.

David Popkins and Rudy Hernendez currently have their lineup posting the worst BABIP (batting average on balls in play) across Major League Baseball. The most straightforward way to dissect the problem is the way in which they are impacting the baseball. Wanting an ideal launch angle that provides line drives and fly balls with velocity, they are instead beating the ball into the ground or popping it into the air. Neither of those outcomes will produce anything but convertible outs.

 

 

From 2019-2023, Minnesota was third in baseball when it came to average exit velocity on batted balls with a launch angle between 7 and 35 degrees. They were also fourth in average launch angle on batted balls with a 90+ mph average exit velocity. In short, they were putting balls in play with ideal trajectories and hitting them hard. Those types of batted balls turn into extra-base hits and force fielders to make difficult plays if they are going to generate outs. This season, they are 11th and 14th in those respective areas.

Of course part of the hope for the Twins this season was to strike out less. They racked up whiffs at a monumental pace last season, so trading some amount of bat speed or upward trajectory for a greater level of contact could have been part of the plan. So far, that isn’t bearing any fruit either. Their strikeout rate is fourth in the majors, and their chase rate is in the middle of the pack. They also swing and miss fourth-most across the sport. Only the Athletics make less contact out of the strike zone, and the Twins are third worst making contact in the zone, leading to the 29th contact rating in baseball.

This isn’t to say that Minnesota should go back to adopting an all or nothing approach that sells out for power, but nothing about their desire to simply put the bat on the ball is producing ideal results or showing a strong process. If it’s a coaching issue that neither of the three-headed hitting coach group are able to get across to the lineup, then a change should be made there. If it’s something that the players simply aren’t able to execute then going back to the drawing board and figuring out alternatives needs to happen.

No matter what, this same broken narrative can’t continue to play out unless Minnesota wants to sink themselves. Right now they aren’t hitting the baseball hard enough, or with the optimal bat path. It’s fair that they don’t have the sluggers needed to send droves of baseballs over the fence either. A multi-faceted process that breaks things down individually could help, but no matter what the changes are, they need to come soon.

 

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[Karbo]

You're right, something needs to change. The problems are numerous. They try to be patient waiting for a pitch to hit then swing and miss at balls in the zone. IMO too many are trying to hit HR's, with the swings out of control. I keep seeing these guys out in front trying to pull the ball, as if the pull field is the only place to hit. 

The Athletic had an article showing how the Twins are one of the worst off-speed hitting teams. Until they can correct their approach  (like Jeffers has) they will continue to struggle. I was always taught with 2 strikes, that more important than swinging hard was making solid contact, on the barrel, and just hit the ball hard. At this point the only ones I see with that approach is Jeffers and Martin.

[Fatbat]

I agree. The approach is horrible and getting bad results. They need to change it and start hitting RBI’s to all parts of the park. Its insane that they keep trying the same approach as it continues to fail. 

[mnfireman]

The team is hitting better as of late, a .245/.300/.417 (.717 OPS) slash line over the last 7 days, good for 7th in the AL and 13th in MLB. Compare this to an overall .205/.285/.349 (.634 OPS) season line, good for 13th in the AL and 27th overall and maybe they have started to figure things out and make adjustments.

[bean5302]

Falvey chose hitters with the boom or bust profile. Lots of raw power, who cares after that. Rooker, Sabato, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc. Even hitters without the HRs in college were tested to see if they could make their raw power into HR power like Martin was. 

Falvey wants home runs as the number one priority. If we're seeing an increase in GB rates, it's certainly not from the intended approach, it's just noise or personnel due to injuries.

[Aaron T]

I know that batting order is just a (potentially small) piece of the puzzle, but here’s something curious about yesterday’s lineup:

1. Kirilloff (.622 OPS hitting first)

2. Julien

3. Larnach (.641 OPS hitting third)

4. Kepler (.709 OPS hitting fourth)

I also realize that OPS is just one stat and that they’re giving AK a chance to lead off. However, if you just re-arrange our lefties here:

1. Kepler (.809 OPS hitting first)

2. Julien

3. Kirilloff (.770 OPS hitting third)

4. Larnach (.782 OPS hitting fourth)

[MABB1959]

42 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

The team is hitting better as of late, a .245/.300/.417 (.717 OPS) slash line over the last 7 days, good for 7th in the AL and 13th in MLB. Compare this to an overall .205/.285/.349 (.634 OPS) season line, good for 13th in the AL and 27th overall and maybe they have started to figure things out and make adjustments.

Is that because of the teams they have faced, White Sox and Detroit?

[nicksaviking]

"The results, or lack thereof, speak for themselves, but it’s the process that seems broken. While it’s assumed that the club is constructed solely to be boppers that launch home runs and celebrate strikeouts, that’s not entirely true. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo were jettisoned with the idea that Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana could even out the team's mix of skills and increase its collective contact rate. "

It's wholly possible this system may have worked, but they replaced two poor hitters with a huge flaw, with two poor hitters with different flaws. Margot and Santana should be the last guy off the bench on a contending team, not taking up regular plate appearances. Subbing out the high strikeout players with low strikeout players who can actually still play baseball, like Lourdes Gurriel and Justin Turner, might have worked. But we'll never know because they reversed course on trying to acquire quality players last offseason.

[RpR]

See ball

Hold bat on shoulder.

Watch ball go bye.

Walk back to dugout.

[mnfireman]

13 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Is that because of the teams they have faced, White Sox and Detroit?

Possibly, though Detroit is the 2nd best staff in MLB by ERA and WHIP and best by AVG against while the ChiSox are near the bottom in MLB in those same categories.

[Doctor Gast]

By your article Ted it sounds that the Twins have been trying to change their "all or nothing" approach for some time now, I beg to differ. Going into the off-season they stated that they weren't changing anything and that they weren't concerned about the SOs. Entering spring training, their solution to the too many SOs was to have their "all or nothing" hitters change nothing while acquiring mediocre at best contact hitters Santana & Margot (bad idea) to balance things out, Twins broadcasting their intent of doubling down on their approach made it easy for the league to prepare for it (like laying off throwing FBs & throw a lot of off-speed). 

It appears to me that with the poor production early in the season, they are just starting to try something else. You can't change overnight what you spent seasons incorporating especially not having a spring training to start it. IMO FO even with the poor results, they'll still want to cling to their philosophy & try to spin some stats that try to make us think that maybe it's the players, coaches, owners or anything else except their philosophy is the problem.

[UpstateNewYorker]

I get it that launch angle and hitting for power are vital. This roster is very one-dimensional and we can't steal bases or even run the bases very well due to the nature of the roster. So when the HRs don't show up, it's very difficult to produce runs. Even in this era it seems like the best offenses have at least some ability to manufacture runs without the long ball.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

I get it that launch angle and hitting for power are vital. This roster is very one-dimensional and we can't steal bases or even run the bases very well due to the nature of the roster. So when the HRs don't show up, it's very difficult to produce runs. Even in this era it seems like the best offenses have at least some ability to manufacture runs without the long ball.

Can't steal unless they're on base and Baldelli actually makes the call to try.

[Guest]

What criteria are used to hire hitting coaches?

Popkins made it to AA

Minors (3 seasons)					Minors		256	969	854	111	237	48	11	14	96	14	15	69	199	.278	.346	.409	.755	349	6	24	16	6
Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB

Pop evidently did not bring with him the notes he surely took while working for the Dodgers.  Hernandez had a cup of coffee with the White Sox.  Who are these guys?

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

"The results, or lack thereof, speak for themselves, but it’s the process that seems broken. While it’s assumed that the club is constructed solely to be boppers that launch home runs and celebrate strikeouts, that’s not entirely true. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo were jettisoned with the idea that Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana could even out the team's mix of skills and increase its collective contact rate. "

It's wholly possible this system may have worked, but they replaced two poor hitters with a huge flaw, with two poor hitters with different flaws. Margot and Santana should be the last guy off the bench on a contending team, not taking up regular plate appearances. Subbing out the high strikeout players with low strikeout players who can actually still play baseball, like Lourdes Gurriel and Justin Turner, might have worked. But we'll never know because they reversed course on trying to acquire quality players last offseason.

Margot and Santana shouldnt even be on the team let alone bench for a contending team.

[Linus]

I think it’s complicated. Data is pretty clear that walks and power correlate to scoring the most runs. So the Twins clearly try to work counts and try to do damage when they get a pitch they are looking for. They are literally looking for a certain pitch in a certain spot and are using this prepared game plan to know what that pitch should be.  They use this approach even with two strikes. 
Sounds good. Now here are the practical realities of this approach. As you work the count a game of chicken begins: the closer you get to a walk the closer you get to a strikeout. The more strikes you have against you the more your batting average plummets. If you don’t walk but you don’t get your pitch you strike out looking. If you don’t walk but get your pitch and swing and miss you strike out swinging. Doing damage in modern baseball means yanking it to the pull side which leaves you vulnerable to pitches on the outside part of the plate. In consideration of all of these factors what you get is an approach where the success rate is going to vary highly which we clearly see. Within a game it might be acceptable- as long as it works a couple of times you are likely to put up crooked numbers. What we see is the variability stretches across games and series leaving us with games where we literally have no chance to win. I think this is the reason Rocco pinch hits so early in games. This style is predicated on getting a couple of ripe chances a game and putting up all the runs needed in those couple chances. Two last thoughts- I’ve always believed the old adage that in the big leagues you are likely to get only one good pitch to hit in an at bat. If that pitch comes in the early part of the at bat and isn’t one the scouting report says to look for it is taken for a strike and the at bat is likely lost. We see this all the time and is what is eating Julien up right now. Second thought is that the strict adherence to the game plan has essentially turned our lineup into guess hitters. Not long ago that was a derogatory term for someone who had lost bat speed and had to guess to get the bat to the zone on time. End result is that you end up with very little ability to adapt to something unexpected. This would also be a big reason why they don’t go the other way anymore. They can’t adapt to a pitch on the outside part of the plate that they aren’t looking for so they just don’t swing at it and hope it gets called a ball. If it’s a strike they just go sit down. People smarter than me figure this stuff out so I’m sure there are several layers of nuance to it but the basic premise and its outcomes (good and bad) are what we see every game. 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Margot and Santana shouldnt even be on the team let alone bench for a contending team.

I want nothing to do with them, but to be fair both were on contending teams last year. Every team has at least one player like this, even the good teams.

There's zero rule that they have to get 15 PA per week though.

[MABB1959]

Could it be managing by analytics only?  I would think a good coach would use instincts more that analytics?

[Aaron T]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Welcome to Twins Daily Aaron!

Thank you! I’ve been following Tom F on YouTube for a while now, so I figured it was time to get on here

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Can't steal unless they're on base and Baldelli actually makes the call to try.

There are not a lot of steal signs in major league baseball. It's green light or red light for players. It's far more player choice than managers putting on steal signs. There may be a situation here or there that the manager will tell a guy to go, but it's much more just guys either being allowed to steal when they want or being told to keep themselves at the base and quit thinking they're fast.

[Eris]

“Of course, part of the hope for the Twins this season was to strike out less”

Hope is not a strategy. A strategy is drafting or promoting players with elite contact skills or hitting outside pitches to the opposite field. 

[Linus]

I will tip my cap to Julien last night. One of his later at bats he had two strikes and the pitcher threw a beauty back door cutter right on the black. No chance but Julien flipped his bat out there and managed the weakest foul ball. Next pitch was a cutter down but middle and Eddy had a good rip at it and just missed it. That was a good at bat. He spoiled the pitchers pitch and the reward was a shot at a much better pitch to hit. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I will tip my cap to Julien last night. One of his later at bats he had two strikes and the pitcher threw a beauty back door cutter right on the black. No chance but Julien flipped his bat out there and managed the weakest foul ball. Next pitch was a cutter down but middle and Eddy had a good rip at it and just missed it. That was a good at bat. He spoiled the pitchers pitch and the reward was a shot at a much better pitch to hit. 

It was one of many Ks by Julien, nothing more.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, mnfireman said:

The team is hitting better as of late, a .245/.300/.417 (.717 OPS) slash line over the last 7 days, good for 7th in the AL and 13th in MLB. Compare this to an overall .205/.285/.349 (.634 OPS) season line, good for 13th in the AL and 27th overall and maybe they have started to figure things out and make adjustments.

Who did we play?

[Whitey333]

Let's not get too excited over the somewhat improved stats by winning three and shortly 4 games from the White Sox.  They masquerade as a major league team but in reality aren't much better than a AA team.  The fact is they are terrible.  Any conclusions that the Twins bats are back after playing them is really a stretch.  Twins are still playing overall poor baseball just not as poor as the liely White Sox.  Next week we should win all 3 games in Chicago.  Then we start playing real teams again.  We shall see. Maybe beating up on the dregs will somehow get us in a positive mode.  I am not holding my breath.