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Posted
4 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but I think fans are going to have to firmly push back on the injury scapegoat that the Twins are inevitably going to trot out.  Let's not fall for it.  Just about every team is dealing with a huge injury or 2 (Bieber's season ending injury is much more impactful to the AL Central race just to name one.  Strider, Cole, etc.)  And the Twins know full well that injuries happen in waves with this team.  They saw last year how many starters it takes to get through a season - then actively decided to thin out the depth of the rotation.  That decision is hurting the team as much as any other.  

If you're talking about using injuries as scapegoat, I assume you're talking about the hitters. Other than DeSclafani, all the starting pitchers are healthy, and the bullpen has been effective.

In terms of injuries to hitters on the teams ahead of them...

  • Cleveland has George Valera and Angel Martinez on the IL. Yeah, I'm not sure who they are either. 
  • Detroit has Andy Ibanez on the IL and Ryan Kreidler listed as "day-to-day."
  • Kansas City has Michael Massey on the IL (as of Monday).

I think Correa, Lewis and Kepler top any of those in terms of production lost. I'm guessing that the loss of any one of those (particularly Correa or Lewis) would be more than what any of these teams has lost. Collectively, the Twins have lost more than these three teams combined. 

Many of the guys who are healthy are playing like crap, but by definition, those guys would have around 110-120 fewer plate appearances if those three were healthy. The Twins have 604 plate appearances as a team going into today. That means close to 20 percent of the plate appearances have gone to guys playing because someone was on the IL. Consider the Twins offense with, say, 32 fewer from Martin (who hasn't been bad, but who is only up because of injury) and 20 fewer each from Wallner, Santana, Castro and Farmer.

It seems to me that injuries have played a HUGE role in how the offense has performed to date. 

Posted
1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Potential injuries should have been calculated.  Correa, Buxton and Kepler are injury prone.  

And the argument could have been made that Kepler should never have been brought back. He has had 1/2 of a decent season since 2019... and the logic to rely on him is not only flawed but borderline insanity. 

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Posted

Generally, I've been a Rocco fan and loath to affix blame to a manager for most of the blame for performance.  But it seems like it's a lollipops-and-puppy dogs life at Club Rocco.  Our BA and OPS suggests spring training wasn't spent on getting timing and technique ready.

I assign some blame for MLB insisting on expanding the start of the season to late March.  Baseball isn't a game best played if the wind chill is below 50 degrees. 

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm not sure that his main value was as the shortstop. If Correa goes down longterm it's Lee or Lewis at short. The value was that he can backfill anywhere to support short, as well as play it. He set the floor better than anyone available.

I'm sure they tried a sign and trade but he shouldn't be surprised they were OK with keeping him at price knowing what they value. I don't care about a biased interpretation of what sources supposedly said. I listen, and didn't hear anything that would make me believe the Twins regret the move. Their price was obviously high.

Farmer is also a notorious slow starter. His splits are pretty ugly first and second half.

They did try a sign and trade. On the Patreon, they noted the Twins believed if they non tendered him that he would have been the best shortstop on the FA market. Now Willi Castro is the backup SS. That in itself is a misjudgement of his value. 

You can choose to believe whatever you'd like, but there are multiple arguments based on the free agent market and how they've used him this year that says they misjudged his value. 

Posted
3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

...I wanted them fired if they didn't make the playoffs last year...

I think Joe Pohlad made it clear Falvey would be at risk for packing his bags if the Twins didn't "advance" in the playoffs last year during a mid-season 2023 interview.

I do believe ownership has some motive in cutting payroll beyond just profit. I suspect Falvey's seat is actually very hot. This is the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken, and ownership has bailed Falvey out by pushing record setting payrolls and agreeing to superstar splash contracts late in the year both in 2022 and 2023. I don't like the "prove it" approach when the AL Central competition level is expected to be weak again this year, but there are comments in regard to building teams through drafting and development by Joe Pohlad this spring which align with the "prove it" methodology. Pohlad specifically mentioned Tampa Bay and Baltimore using the phrase "right size our business." The Twins have been spending higher than attendance in recent years in terms of MLB ranks. The expectation the Twins have the revenue/payroll to be competitive if the drafting and development system is in place is not unreasonable.

Bailey Ober is the only legitimate (back end) MLB caliber starter drafted/IL signed and developed by the Falvey front office in 7 years. That's not sustainable. That's literally worse than Terry Ryan  and Bill Smith whose mentionable guys actually produced real on the field value for the Twins rather than some other franchise.

Smith 4 drafts, 7 players 2008-2011 = Hicks (2008), Gibson (2009), Dozier (2009), Sano (2009), Polanco (2009), Kepler (2009), Rosario (2010) <--- Smith's results were by far the best IMHO with 4 players who became All Stars in 4 years.

Ryan 7 drafts, 11 players 2006-2007, 2012-2016 = Valencia (2006), Revere (2007), Buxton (2012), Berrios (2012), Duffey (2012), Rogers (2012), Garver (2013), Gordon (2014), Kirilloff (2016), Miranda (2016), Jax (2016), 2 All Stars.

Falvey 7 drafts, 10?+ players 2017-2023 = Lewis (2017), Ober (2017), Jeffers (2018), Funderburk (2018), Wallner* (2019), Julien (2019), Varland** (2019), Lee? (2022), Jenkins? (2023), Soto? (2023). I think Lewis, Jenkins and Soto could eventually become All Stars. Lewis' health issues are now absolutely a real problem.

*Wallner was first drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016, same for Rooker who didn't provide much to MN so unlisted.
**Varland doesn't look like a legit starter, didn't highlight Duffey for Ryan, either.
 

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I really thought sign and trade would be a good option for Farmer. I'd also love to know Farmer's thoughts on catching since that's what the Dodgers drafted and coached him to be. Wonder if the Twins considered using him at catcher at all last year? It would be a good strategic choice to bolster Farmer's value in plans to sign/trade later.

Sign and trade?

Is that even a thing in MLB?

 

Posted
1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

You mean all the pitchers they traded for? Like the Twins also have done the last half decade? Because while Falvey was there, Cleveland only developed Danny Salazar, they traded for the others.

I didn't hire him because of his contribution to the vaunted Cleveland pitching pipeline. I am reporting the story I was told about the wonderkind kid from Cleveland in October of 2016. Still waiting...

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Consider the Twins offense with, say, 32 fewer from Martin (who hasn't been bad, but who is only up because of injury) and 20 fewer each from Wallner, Santana, Castro and Farmer.

It seems to me that injuries have played a HUGE role in how the offense has performed to date. 

Injuries have zero effect on Wallner's ABs, and likely zero effect on Santana's. Certainly Lewis's ABs have gone to some combination of Farmer/Castro. But Correa has lost less than a week.

I have a hard time blaming injury, particularly when Lewis is yet another soft tissue issue which seems to me to be less than bad luck.

Posted
11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Injuries have zero effect on Wallner's ABs, and likely zero effect on Santana's. Certainly Lewis's ABs have gone to some combination of Farmer/Castro. But Correa has lost less than a week.

I have a hard time blaming injury, particularly when Lewis is yet another soft tissue issue which seems to me to be less than bad luck.

And Jeffers has probably gotten more ABs with the injuries as he likely wouldn't be getting everyday ABs if not for the injuries. So they were forced to put their current best hitter in the lineup more. 

Posted
36 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I didn't hire him because of his contribution to the vaunted Cleveland pitching pipeline. I am reporting the story I was told about the wonderkind kid from Cleveland in October of 2016. Still waiting...

Nobody but armchair fans who did no research were telling that story. Cleveland didn't develop a pipeline during his time there.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Nobody but armchair fans who did no research were telling that story. Cleveland didn't develop a pipeline during his time there.

C'mon. Seriously?

I bet I can find 50 TD puff pieces touting "The Pitching Pipeline."

 

And 100 touting Falvey's pitcher development in Cleveland. 

Posted
1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Injuries have zero effect on Wallner's ABs, and likely zero effect on Santana's. Certainly Lewis's ABs have gone to some combination of Farmer/Castro. But Correa has lost less than a week.

I have a hard time blaming injury, particularly when Lewis is yet another soft tissue issue which seems to me to be less than bad luck.

Kepler last played April 6. With the way the Twins use people in multiple positions, you're saying that having Kepler available for an additional 10 games wouldn't have affected Wallner's playing time? Sorry, but I'm not seeing that.

And soft tissue, hard tissue, what does it matter? Lewis has two plate appearances and would have had a lot more if he was healthy. 

But whatever. Go ahead and allocate the 110+ plate appearances differently than I did (and I should have included Margot). The point still stands that guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot less at bats if those three were healthy.

EDIT to add: Sorry, I didn't realize that Wallner has as few plate appearances as he's had. It wouldn't have cut his plate appearances by the number I listed. But the 40-ish plate appearances Kepler has missed would have affected some combination of Wallner, Margot and Castro. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

C'mon. Seriously?

I bet I can find 50 TD puff pieces touting "The Pitching Pipeline."

 

And 100 touting Falvey's pitcher development in Cleveland. 

If they did, they were wrong. Who did Cleveland develop outside of Danny Salazar during his time there? Every other pitcher they acquired was in either the majors or when they were in AAA.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

And Jeffers has probably gotten more ABs with the injuries as he likely wouldn't be getting everyday ABs if not for the injuries. So they were forced to put their current best hitter in the lineup more. 

True. Though he DHed in the second game of the year, so apparently there was at least some willingness to use him as a DH when he wasn't catching. Since then, he's DHed three more times, so maybe that would have been one or two extra games. 

Look, we're never going to know the exact breakdown. But it doesn't change my argument. Guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot fewer plate appearances if Lewis, Correa and Kepler were healthy. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

True. Though he DHed in the second game of the year, so apparently there was at least some willingness to use him as a DH when he wasn't catching. Since then, he's DHed three more times, so maybe that would have been one or two extra games. 

Look, we're never going to know the exact breakdown. But it doesn't change my argument. Guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot fewer plate appearances if Lewis, Correa and Kepler were healthy. 

Lewis' injury has had a significant effect for sure. Kepler sucked himself all spring and to start the season so replacing a sucking Kepler with a sucking anybody else doesn't really change much of anything. Arguing they're really missing his -56 OPS+ isn't a great selling point. Correa just got hurt and many of those ABs have been replaced with Jeffers DHing. It certainly matters, but it's not as drastic as you suggested. And when compared to Shane Bieber getting hurt for Cleveland it's pretty close since Lewis is the only injury that's significantly hurt the Twins to this point.

Posted
30 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Kepler last played April 6. With the way the Twins use people in multiple positions, you're saying that having Kepler available for an additional 10 games wouldn't have affected Wallner's playing time? Sorry, but I'm not seeing that.

And soft tissue, hard tissue, what does it matter? Lewis has two plate appearances and would have had a lot more if he was healthy. 

But whatever. Go ahead and allocate the 110+ plate appearances differently than I did (and I should have included Margot). The point still stands that guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot less at bats if those three were healthy.

EDIT to add: Sorry, I didn't realize that Wallner has as few plate appearances as he's had. It wouldn't have cut his plate appearances by the number I listed. But the 40-ish plate appearances Kepler has missed would have affected some combination of Wallner, Margot and Castro. 

Pulling the trigger on Wallner after only 13 games is actually one of the few encouraging things they've done this year. Optionable players or non-optionable players, I'd hope that will continue. Though I'm doubtful.

Posted
6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Today Santana has dropped to -0.5 WAR and Margot is -0.3.  

On a team where Castro is -0.2, Farmer is -0.3 it is hard to see what the FO saw coming into the season.  And I hate to say it Nick Gordon (-0.2 WAR) has a 124 OPS+ and 3 HRS. 

I know it is still early, 10% of the season so far and things can turn around, but how much faith do we have.  I know Max Kepler with his -0.4 WAR will come back.  We have sent down Wallner and are hoping AAAA Larnach can make the next half step.  

Buxton is doing great in the field, but his ABs are not what we expect. He has 0.2 Defensive WAR and -0.1 batting. Julien is not what we expect and does not erase Luis Arraez from our memories. 

Correa and his 0.3 WAR and Lewis are the infusion we need and I hope that Miranda keeps hitting and pushes Santana out (would our FO allow this?).

Miranda replacing Santana is the answer and it should be done as soon as Correa comes back. This probably means a DFA because I don't think anyone will trade for his contract. Maybe we can trade him during the DFA if we throw in a lower-level prospect and get a low level prospects back. He needs to be gone. Miranda plays third base when Kirilloff plays first base and Farmer/Castro plays third base against left-handed pitching when Kirilloff either sits or goes to DH. Miranda becomes part of the 1B/DH group when Lewis comes back.

In the outfield, move Buxton down the lineup to the six or seven hole and play Austin Martin every day in LF. Margot isn't bad as a 5th OF and can be in a platoon with a left-handed hitter in right field and as a day off guy. Right now it's Larnach and if he doesn't hit (likely result), Larnach goes when Kepler comes back.

Julien and Farmer I think I likely to come back to at least close to their basic levels of last year. Castro unfortunately is looking a lot like he did in Detroit. Last year may have been his career year.

Tomorrow is a day off. Here's what we do tomorrow and/or after Sunday's game when Kepler is ready to come back:

Pitching: Funderburk down, SWR up. SWR into rotation, Varland to bullpen.

Lineup: Santana DFA or traded for a lower-level prospect. Kepler back to roster in his spot, either Larnach back to AAA for Keirsey taking Santana's 40 man spot or if at all the sudden Larnach hits this weekend, he stays. Whichever one stays plays 2-3 games a week in left field or as a DH but Martin plays at least four or five days a week. Miranda is the starting third baseman and Kirilloff starts at first. Farmer plays short, Julien second, and Castro is a true utility player. Jeffers is the DH when he is not catching, plays every day. If there is a desire for another utility or backup infielder, Camargo goes to AAA but there isn't really anyone there to bring up who deserves it other than Diego Castillo and he is not on the 40 man roster. Maybe Bowman is the DFA candidate to create a spot and then Funderburk stays up.

Bottom line, significant changes need to be made soon. We've seen enough that this roster is flawed and is losing any sort of confidence or swagger. I do like to see Baldelli not starting Santana but I think a major shakeup is necessary and soon.

Posted
46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lewis' injury has had a significant effect for sure. Kepler sucked himself all spring and to start the season so replacing a sucking Kepler with a sucking anybody else doesn't really change much of anything. Arguing they're really missing his -56 OPS+ isn't a great selling point. Correa just got hurt and many of those ABs have been replaced with Jeffers DHing. It certainly matters, but it's not as drastic as you suggested. And when compared to Shane Bieber getting hurt for Cleveland it's pretty close since Lewis is the only injury that's significantly hurt the Twins to this point.

I'll put more weight on Kepler's career 103 OPS+, including the 110 over the past five years, than I will on a five-game sample. March/April is historically his second-best month if you want to add that to the historical context.

Regarding Bieber, you're overstating my argument. Go back to the original post and the one it was responding to.   

(Those were my last sentences on this discussion, which clearly isn't going to change anyone's perspective.) 

Posted
2 hours ago, hitterscount said:

And the argument could have been made that Kepler should never have been brought back. He has had 1/2 of a decent season since 2019... and the logic to rely on him is not only flawed but borderline insanity. 

I agree

Posted
42 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'll put more weight on Kepler's career 103 OPS+, including the 110 over the past five years, than I will on a five-game sample. March/April is historically his second-best month if you want to add that to the historical context.

Regarding Bieber, you're overstating my argument. Go back to the original post and the one it was responding to.   

(Those were my last sentences on this discussion, which clearly isn't going to change anyone's perspective.) 

Why? If the argument is that this team would be better with Lewis, Correa, and Kepler then we should take into consideration what Lewis, Correa, and Kepler were doing when they got hurt. Kepler was 1 for 21 when he got hurt. Claiming the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter. 

Your direct quote was "guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot fewer plate appearances if Lewis, Correa, and Kepler were healthy." Kepler was one of the guys "who have sucked." I don't know how you can argue that. You used Matt Wallner in your example of guys who have sucked getting more plate appearances. If you're going to "put more weight on Kepler's career 103 OPS+" than a five-game sample why wouldn't you put more weight on Wallner's career 126 OPS+? Can't have it both ways. Either you're going off the current season's suckiness or you're not. Willi Castro was a 107 OPS+ hitter last year. So why would him getting more ABs now that the 103 OPS+ Kepler is hurt matter if it's not about how they were/are actually performing this season?

Yes, the one you responded to claimed Shane Bieber being hurt was more impactful than the Twins injuries. You spun that into just comparing offensive injuries instead because that, like your use of Kepler's career stats vs other guy's season stats, fits your narrative.

Posted
9 hours ago, Karbo said:

What's even worse than the decision to sign Santana and Margot, is the fact they probably won't move on from them as the season goes on.

Move to what?

As bad as Santana has been, there is nothing to move to.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Arguing they're really missing his -56 OPS+ isn't a great selling point.

Sold me. He was injured on opening day. I believe I wrote at the time they should IL him because he has shown he has shown in the past that he hits poorly with a bad leg. His OPS+ is not independent of that injury. That injury resulted in playing a hobbled Kepler followed by the injury replacements. I believe they are really missing a healthy Kepler.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Why? If the argument is that this team would be better with Lewis, Correa, and Kepler then we should take into consideration what Lewis, Correa, and Kepler were doing when they got hurt. Kepler was 1 for 21 when he got hurt. Claiming the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter. 

He was sucking.  But to be fair, the sample size was very small and I doubt anyone would bet on him continuing to produce at a level of -56 OPS+.  Put another way, if you were betting on his OPS+ the next 50 games he plays, where would you set the +/-?  It certainly would not be -56.  I suspect if any of us were betting, it would be much closer to the 103 than -56.  I would make a very substantial bet at the mid-point between those two numbers.

Posted
28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Kirilloff and Miranda.

Santana is here because Kirilloff is poor with a glove; Miranda is no better than Kirilloff, that is why Santana is here.

Posted

Platoon splits and veterans (some like Santana clearly past their prime) --  this risk-averse approach to creating "depth" takes away from the energy and excitement of the game (imo).   Really look forward to the return of Royce, and I hope with time other bats return to form.

 

 

Posted
52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Santana is here because Kirilloff is poor with a glove; Miranda is no better than Kirilloff, that is why Santana is here.

Understood, but this team is not in a position to sacrifice offense for defense. We need bats. Santana is the better defender but by far the worst hitter of the three. He sits or goes away. We live with the defense of the other 2 to get their bats in the lineup.  IF we had 7 other guys who were good hitters we could opt for defense at 1B. We don't. That isn't going to change when guys come back from injury or "heat up". Let's look at the cast of characters that have run through this year's lineup. We have 3 consistently above average MLB hitters - Lewis, Jeffers, and Correa - 2 young guys who we think are at a least averageish now and who may be consistently above average MLB hitters some day, maybe even soon - Kirilloff and Julien - 2 veteran question marks who might be slightly better than average, might be average, might be worse, changes week to week and year to year, hard to say - Kepler and  Buxton - 2 young guys who need a chance and could be good, but might crap out - Martin and Miranda - 4 guys who are DEFINTIELY below average MLB hitters - Margot, Castro, Larnach, and Farmer - and 3 guys who are WAAAY below average MLB hitters - Vasquez, Santana, and Wallner (with the caveat that Wallner might come back up some but likely never to the "consistently above average" group). That's who we got so far. 

That lineup cannot sacrifice offense for defense at any position. We have to play the guys who can hit and try to get them better on the defensive side. Santana can not be allowed to start consistently. Frankly, he should be gone and he should take Margot and Larnach with him. We can have 2 guys on the bench for defense - Farmer and Vasquez - and play Buxton in CF while living with his inconsistent bat. That's it for defense over offense. The rest can't stay if they can't hit. Simple as that. 

Posted
1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Sold me. He was injured on opening day. I believe I wrote at the time they should IL him because he has shown he has shown in the past that he hits poorly with a bad leg. His OPS+ is not independent of that injury. That injury resulted in playing a hobbled Kepler followed by the injury replacements. I believe they are really missing a healthy Kepler.

What injury did he have on opening day? But even if he was it doesn't change the fact that the 2024 MN Twins didn't lose some top performer to injury that was then replaced with terrible performers. Max Kepler was performing terribly so being replaced by guys performing terribly isn't actually a downgrade.

The argument that was made was that players who were/are struggling (Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer specifically were named) got more PAs instead of Kepler. Max Kepler wasn't performing significantly better than any of them. 

And if he was injured on opening day he was also injured all of spring apparently. I don't remember seeing any reports about him struggling with any injuries this spring, but I certainly could've missed something.

The Twins are missing a quality performing Kepler. But they're also missing quality performing Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer. The Kepler that got hurt and was replaced by those guys isn't missed and they aren't performing any worse than he was.

Posted
1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

He was sucking.  But to be fair, the sample size was very small and I doubt anyone would bet on him continuing to produce at a level of -56 OPS+.  Put another way, if you were betting on his OPS+ the next 50 games he plays, where would you set the +/-?  It certainly would not be -56.  I suspect if any of us were betting, it would be much closer to the 103 than -56.  I would make a very substantial bet at the mid-point between those two numbers.

Master of deleting all context strikes again. The claim made was that this team would be performing better if Kepler hadn't been replaced by Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer. I didn't say anything about the sample size or the next 50 games. The other poster claimed this team would be performing better right now with Kepler. Then they tried to use his career numbers against the other guy's season numbers. Pretty sure their season numbers are small sample size as well. Comparing Kepler's career while ignoring how he's performed all spring and in his small regular season sample size while doing the opposite and only using the other 4's small regular season sample size while ignoring their careers is nonsense.

No, Kepler won't OPS+ -56 all season. But that's the player that was hurt. Does anyone think Wallner, Santana (I actually do expect him to suck all year), Castro, and Farmer are going to continue with their terrible OPS+ numbers all year? I would make a very substantial bet that nobody is expecting that. So it was a bad argument. Kepler was one of the guys sucking so him being replaced by other guys sucking wasn't actually a downgrade. If you want to talk about career numbers then Wallner getting sent down is actually the bigger blow to the offense. But I don't see many people arguing that point.  Because the performance right now is what matters.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What injury did he have on opening day

His current injury was from fouling a ball off his knee on opening day. Instead of going in the IL immediately he returned 5 days later. They haven’t had a healthy Kepler for even one full game in 2024. 

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