It’s Time to Start Worrying About the Twins’ Infield Defense

[Cody Christie]

The left side of Minnesota’s infield currently resides on the injured list, while the right side comprises an unproven sophomore and an aging first baseman. Now is the time to start worrying about the Twins’ infield defense.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

On paper, the Twins had plenty of infield depth to start the year, with multiple options at every position around the horn. That depth was quickly tested when Royce Lewis strained his quad in the season’s first game; he is likely out until June. Minnesota had options to fill in at third base, including Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and José Miranda. However, the team’s depth is being pushed to its limits after placing Carlos Correa on the injured list with an intercostal strain. Now, the Twins are digging deep into their 40-man roster to patch together their infield defense until players return from the IL.

Last season, the Twins had multiple top prospects waiting in the wings at Triple-A to reinforce the roster. It would be great to have the same scenario play out in 2024, but that has yet to be the case. Brooks Lee, Twins Daily’s second-ranked prospect, is currently on the IL at Triple-A with back spasms and is expected to miss multiple weeks. The Twins have already called up Austin Martin, one of the team’s top 10 prospects, but the team has been reluctant to play him in the infield. His defensive time has come in the outfield, plus a four-inning stint at second base. Let’s whip around the infield to look at the defensive options and predict how the team will handle duties in the coming weeks.

First Base
Defensive Question: Can Carlos Santana hit enough to be the team’s everyday first baseman?
Minnesota brought in Santana because of his veteran presence and defense at first base. There were also health concerns about Alex Kirilloff, after the latter underwent offseason shoulder surgery. Santana is off to an abysmal offensive start to the season, with a .368 OPS and a 10 OPS+ in his first 13 games. Defensively, he rates well at first base, with his Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average ranking in the 78th percentile or higher. Minnesota’s offense has struggled out of the gate, though, and one has to wonder if Santana can provide any offensive value or if Father Time has caught up to him in his age-38 season. 
Current Best Option: Santana
Back-Up Options: Kirilloff, Miranda, Christian Vázquez

Second Base
Defensive Question: Are Edouard Julien’s Defensive Improvements Legitimate?
Julien has been one of the team’s lone bright spots during the 2024 season, and he’s done it on both sides of the ball. Last season, Julien ranked low in Fielding Run Value (49th percentile), Outs Above Average (59th percentile), and Arm Strength (14th percentile). The Twins have praised him for the work he has put in at second base, and the results speak for themselves so far in 2024. He’s tied for second among AL second basemen in Fielding Run Value (92nd percentile) and OAA (95th percentile). It’s very early in the season, so tracking his defensive performance throughout the year will be interesting. Few thought he’d be the team’s best defensive second baseman, but here we are.
Current Best Option: Julien
Back-Up Options: Kyle Farmer, Martin, Willi Castro

Third Base
Defensive Question: Can José Miranda Reemerge as a Long-Term Option?
Miranda hit his first home run of the season against Baltimore Monday night and can insert himself back into the team’s long-term plans. Castro is the team’s lone player with a positive OAA at third base, while Farmer (-1 OAA) and Miranda (-2 OAA) have provided negative value. Farmer’s fielding gaffe against Detroit (see below) stands out as one fielding play that changed a game this season. It’s disappointing that Lee isn’t available for an extended look while Lewis is out to start the year. Many evaluators thought Lee would eventually switch to the hot corner, but he will need time to recover and get up to speed at Triple-A. The Twins will likely continue to rotate through the Castro, Farmer, and Miranda trio until Lewis returns later this season. 
Current Best Option: Castro
Back-Up Options: Farmer, Miranda, Lee

Shortstop
Defensive Question: Is Kyle Farmer Cooked at Shortstop?
Over the weekend, the Twins made an interesting lineup decision, starting Farmer at third base and Castro at shortstop. This move is the opposite of what the team would have done last season when Farmer (276 innings) played over 10 times as many shortstop innings as Castro. Some questioned the front office’s decision to offer arbitration to Farmer and bring him back on a deal north of $6 million. That is a high price for a backup infielder, especially on a team cutting payroll by $30 million. Minnesota has since started Farmer at shortstop, but Castro pinch-hit for him later in the game. Castro is six years younger than Farmer, so the team might feel that Farmer has lost a step defensively.
Current Best Option: Farmer (by default)
Back-Up Options: Castro, Martin (in a pinch)

What is the team’s best defensive lineup with the players who are currently healthy? Who should be the team’s regular shortstop? Do you trust Julien’s early-season defensive improvements? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

There is no best defensive lineup right now.  We just have to plug holes.  But I would put Miranda at 3B and let Farmer sit.  I know Miranda is not the answer, but neither is farmer.  I am not as impressed with Santana at 1B as many are.  

Our defense at the moment is only good in CF and C.  

[stringer bell]

Farmer/Castro at shortstop: Farmer doesn't have the range of Castro or the throwing arm. I would say that he has surer hands and he has plenty of experience at shortstop. Combining these factors with Farmer's really slow start at the plate and I would say it is real hard to put Farmer out there regularly right now. 

Unfortunately Castro hasn't been much better with the bat and he's made a few fielding mistakes (one not charged as an error). Willi's defense was very good last year, but much like his hitting and base running, it might be a mirage. So far, Castro has hurt the team more than he's helped it and his strikeout rate is second worst on the team.

[Linus]

In an offseason of head scratching moves bringing Farmer back and not using him as the backup SS is right up there. The only value he really offered was the ability to cover SS and now he can’t?  Tell you what - you can have Farmer and Santana and I will take Polanco. 

[jmlease1]

It's not time to start worrying about the Twins INF defense. The problem at 1B isn't defense, it's offense, as noted in the article. Julien looks solid enough at 2B, so the right side defense is fine. And it's hard to get too spun up about our SS defense when Correa should be back soon and looked excellent before picking up a ding.

Maybe you can wonder about 3B since Miranda isn't great there and we don't really know when Lewis is going to be back, but it's not like Miranda is a butcher out there.

I'm not worrying about the Twins infield defense. I'm worrying about their offense. With Correa out, Santana awful, and neither Castro nor Farmer hitting anything, the offense is a problem. (Julien's lack of contact is concerning, but he's still producing. Miranda is doing a nice job in a small sample size at the plate)

With Correa out, we're getting basically nothing from SS or 1B on offense. The defense is fine, but we can't afford to have half the infield stink on offense on a given night. And right now Castro, Farmer, and especially Santana are awful a the plate. (technically Farmer is "worse", but he's also hit a lot less and an OPS+ difference of 2 pts is meaningless)

infield offense is also not helped by Vazquez being a zero again at the plate when he starts. (His defense is still quality, but he's been brutal at the plate)

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Linus said:

In an offseason of head scratching moves bringing Farmer back and not using him as the backup SS is right up there. The only value he really offered was the ability to cover SS and now he can’t?  Tell you what - you can have Farmer and Santana and I will take Polanco. 

Concur.

If Farmer isn't on this team to play SS why did they spend $6m on him? 

 

Just one more very questionable decision in an offseason full of them.

 

 

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

There is no best defensive lineup right now.  We just have to plug holes.  But I would put Miranda at 3B and let Farmer sit.  I know Miranda is not the answer, but neither is farmer.  I am not as impressed with Santana at 1B as many are.  

Our defense at the moment is only good in CF and C.  

Given that so many are struggling, playing Miranda at either first or third makes some sense. His three-hit game last night makes his statistics look much better. Regardless of platoon advantage here are the nine guys on the active roster I would play right now: Catcher--Jeffers, First Base--Santana (ugh) Second Base--Julien, Shortstop--Castro (ugh), Third Base--Miranda, Left Field--Martin, Center Field--Buxton, Right Field--Margot, DH--Kirilloff.

[Karbo]

I'd give Miranda 3rd for now. See what he does with a few more AB's. Platoon Castro and Farmer, Platoon Santana and AK, rotate catchers with Vazquez and Camargo with Jeffers getting DH.

[Florida Flash]

I find it hard to watch because of the poor/brutal offense. Same as last year. Yes it is great to see the flashy defense big leaguers do, but I would almost, but not quite, watch a soccer game (ugh) than a pitchers duel with a bunch of k's. That said, it seems to me that the ump's have a pretty large strike zone, some a lot more that others.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with others, if Farmer isn't here to backup SS, why is he here, especially with the budget cuts? Really confused at the decision making here. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

There is no best defensive lineup right now.  We just have to plug holes.  But I would put Miranda at 3B and let Farmer sit.  I know Miranda is not the answer, but neither is farmer.  I am not as impressed with Santana at 1B as many are.  

Our defense at the moment is only good in CF and C.  

Farmer has one bad game, at least in the opinion of this site and blah, blah, blah about any one is better even though Miranda showed his fielding is no better than before, Good Grief.😱

Julien is not better than he was, people here said home town scorers were he reason errors were not give to several Twins, well, that is the  same reason Julien did not have lot of errors on his record last year.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I'd give Miranda 3rd for now.

NO, hell NO.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Just one more very questionable decision in an offseason full of them.

 

The decisions weren't questionable.  They made basically zero effort to improve while cutting payroll.

[Shaitan]

That is an offensive question about Santana.

/s

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Given that so many are struggling, playing Miranda at either first or third makes some sense. His three-hit game last night makes his statistics look much better. Regardless of platoon advantage here are the nine guys on the active roster I would play right now: Catcher--Jeffers, First Base--Santana (ugh) Second Base--Julien, Shortstop--Castro (ugh), Third Base--Miranda, Left Field--Martin, Center Field--Buxton, Right Field--Margot, DH--Kirilloff.

Unfortunate that we have to play two ughs!

[Eris]

Carlos Santana is a top 20 percentile first baseman is true in the statistical sense but only because so many 1B have negative fielding run value. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?year=2023&team=&min=500&pos=3

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

One thing I don't understand is that Codie's article "Need for speed" stated that Julien has slowed down considerably at sprint speed this season yet greatly improved at OAA (supposedly to measure range) according to this article. This tells me that OAA can be manipulated & can not be trusted. I imagine OAA can be manipulated by cheating (positioning) & have the SS & 1B cover your butt. 

When we lost Correa we lost the ability of his replacement to help cover the slack at 2B. The Twins pursued Santana they emphasized defense. I asked myself What?! Up the middle you need to focus on defense not 1B, 1B you need someone who can hit. But now I know, they needed someone better at defense to cover for Julien to play further off the line. Santana plays too far off the line allowing too many hits get by him for extra bases. Farmer, Castro & Martin can play a better 2B but are more needed elsewhere.

IMO Castro has more range than Farmer & should play SS, Farmer is better at 3B than Miranda. For LHPs they should have Vazquez catching & Jeffers at DH not the other way around. Until Correa comes back our INF will be really hurting.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

One thing I don't understand is that Codie's article "Need for speed" stated that Julien has slowed down considerably at sprint speed this season yet greatly improved at OAA (supposedly to measure range) according to this article. This tells me that OAA can be manipulated & can not be trusted. I imagine OAA can be manipulated by cheating (positioning) & have the SS & 1B cover your butt...

OAA doesn't care about positioning. It only cares how far the player needed to travel to make a play. Top speed is most valuable in a position where the player has to run long distances (center field). A relatively slow player (Carlos Correa) can still be a plus defender in the middle infield with reaction time, acceleration, transition time and throwing velocity.

Sprint speed at this time of year doesn't have enough sample size to be super reliable. I doubt Julien is literally one of the slowest players to play MLB this year, and dropping from 27.0 ft/sec to 24.4 ft/sec is unheard of.

OAA has some big flaws to be sure, and I would never rely upon it in a vacuum, but combined with other metrics, it can help an analyst get to the bottom of a players defensive skills a little better.
 

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

OAA doesn't care about positioning. It only cares how far the player needed to travel to make a play. Top speed is most valuable in a position where the player has to run long distances (center field). A relatively slow player (Carlos Correa) can still be a plus defender in the middle infield with reaction time, acceleration, transition time and throwing velocity.

Sprint speed at this time of year doesn't have enough sample size to be super reliable. I doubt Julien is literally one of the slowest players to play MLB this year, and dropping from 27.0 ft/sec to 24.4 ft/sec is unheard of.

OAA has some big flaws to be sure, and I would never rely upon it in a vacuum, but combined with other metrics, it can help an analyst get to the bottom of a players defensive skills a little better.
 

27ft/ sec. is the universal speed they put on players w/ no history. The 24.4 ft./ sec. is the most accurate. Correa's advantage comes from many years of playing his natural position SS. 2B is a position force upon Julien by the Twins.

I forgot to mention that the Twins were tied for last in DPs/ game last season & so far tied for 2nd to the last this season. DPs are a pitcher's best friend but the Twins refuse to address it. My requirements for 2B are able to turn double-plays, range & soft hands.

[bean5302]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

27ft/ sec. is the universal speed they put on players w/ no history. The 24.4 ft./ sec. is the most accurate. Correa's advantage comes from many years of playing his natural position SS. 2B is a position force upon Julien by the Twins.

I forgot to mention that the Twins were tied for last in DPs/ game last season & so far tied for 2nd to the last this season. DPs are a pitcher's best friend but the Twins refuse to address it. My requirements for 2B are able to turn double-plays, range & soft hands.

27.0 ft/sec was Julien in 2023.
24.4 ft/sec is Julien in 2024 as recorded in SSS

There is no universal speed thing. That does not exist. Austin Martin is 28.0 ft/sec this year.

[ewen21]

On 4/16/2024 at 11:25 AM, jmlease1 said:

It's not time to start worrying about the Twins INF defense. The problem at 1B isn't defense, it's offense, 

This team is last in baseball in team batting average.  We are also in the bottom five in OBP, SLG and OPS.  I think more emphasis needs to be put on that.  The main reason isn’t that this lineup is slumping.  It’s that these GMs grossly overestimated what we had offensively.  There isn’t a single player other than Correa (apart from a 38 year old Santana) with a track record for being a solid offensive player.  They should have known that going into the winter and they should have done something about it.

infield defense is only an issue if we are looking to make hay in the playoffs.  It’s nice to have it, but if your offense is as bad as this one has been then that ought to be the main concern

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

This team is last in baseball in team batting average.  We are also in the bottom five in OBP, SLG and OPS.  I think more emphasis needs to be put on that.  The main reason isn’t that this lineup is slumping.  It’s that these GMs grossly overestimated what we had offensively.  There isn’t a single player other than Correa (apart from a 38 year old Santana) with a track record for being a solid offensive player.  They should have known that going into the winter and they should have done something about it.

infield defense is only an issue if we are looking to make hay in the playoffs.  It’s nice to have it, but if your offense is as bad as this one has been then that ought to be the main concern

They had one position open, really, and that was first base. I'm not sure why anyone would expect them to replace any other starter. That said, agreed, the problem here is offense. 

[RpR]

23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

! Up the middle you need to focus on defense not 1B, 1B you need someone who can hit. But now I know, they needed someone better at defense to cover for Julien to play further off the line. Santana plays too far off the line allowing too many hits get by him for extra bases. Farmer, Castro & Martin can play a better 2B but are more needed elsewhere.

That makes no sense, If Santana plays closer to the line the ball get by inbetween Santana and Julien.

Julien has very, very poor range, which has been shown by  when Santana does play close to the line the gap between practically has a sign saying  -- Hit Ball Here.

[ewen21]

On 4/17/2024 at 12:09 PM, Mike Sixel said:

They had one position open, really, and that was first base. I'm not sure why anyone would expect them to replace any other starter. That said, agreed, the problem here is offense. 

This isn’t hindsight.  He was an excellent player for the money.  In many ways the dual GMs have done well with FA (when compared to TR), but they made a mistake with him and Polanco.  
 

We can quibble about infield defense, but when you have a roster so thin on offense like this one it’s like worrying about a broken finger when quadruple bypass surgery is needed.  Building a solid lineup needs to be priority number one next year as far as I am concerned.  I like Ryan, Lopez and Ober.  Maybe add a FA arm

[Riverbrian]

On 4/16/2024 at 7:02 PM, Doctor Gast said:

One thing I don't understand is that Codie's article "Need for speed" stated that Julien has slowed down considerably at sprint speed this season yet greatly improved at OAA (supposedly to measure range) according to this article. This tells me that OAA can be manipulated & can not be trusted. I imagine OAA can be manipulated by cheating (positioning) & have the SS & 1B cover your butt. 

Luis Arraez produce 1 OAA in May of last year. He was -7 in March/April. He was -4 in June. 

I don't know if manipulated is the right word... but sample size should lead to a healthy distrust.

Then consider that 75% of plays are classified as routine... 81% of all plays are considered either routine or likely. 84% of all plays are considered Even, Likely or Routine.

Leaving 16% of plays considered as not likely, remote or impossible.

Then consider that a 2nd basemen will see one defensive opportunity every two innings and it should be apparent that one play made by Arraez in May considered remote is a big needle mover. 

You are right to not trust or at the very least recognize the volatility in small samples.