Why You Shouldn't Lump Anthony DeSclafani In With Other Injured Twins Pitching Acquisitions

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If that's the case then Falvey needs to be fired. If you can't trust your baseball operations to sign free agents or make trades then what is the point?

On the trade front this FO has been IMO a pretty good (or better) (Odo, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Duran), sure they have missed on a few but that is how baseball trades work. On the developing side of starting pitching they only have Ober to show and fingers crossed Varland which isn't great or really even very good.

[Beast]

When I point fingers at “the FO,” ownership is included.  Ownership slashing payroll because of this TV deal nonsense (that they themselves negotiated) doesn’t make it OK that this rotation stinks outside of Lopez.

The way this team is currently constructed has an absolute zero chance in the playoffs.

Ryan is so up and down and home run happy that they didn’t trust him to pitch more than one inning last year.  Now we’re going to roll into a playoff series with him as the potential #2?

Ober is just Ober.  He’ll give us some good innings against bad teams this year, and maybe even end the year with a decent enough ERA, but nobody can feel good about giving that guy the ball against any potential playoff opponent.

Thats all assuming this team even makes the playoffs, which is a big if.  Many seem to think it’s a foregone conclusion.  I’m not so sure.

I don’t care about the reasons why they make awful decisions routinely.  I care about the end result.  Whether it’s the “FO” or ownership, way too many self sabotaging decisions are being made that are in excusable.  I’m tired of it.  I’m tired of the endless media and blogger barrage rationalizing the mediocrity.  I’m tired of hearing how they tried hard (but did they really?).  I’m tied of hearing about the one contract they signed that nullifies decades of intentional roster neglect.  I’m tired of hearing about the operating loss (which is BS and accounting smoke and mirrors with no connection to actual cash flows and hard profits they are pulling out of the company in the way of executive salaries and draws for their own coffers).  I’m tired of this poverty franchise and the endless propaganda campaign trying to convince me otherwise. I’m tired of being told celebrating moral victories is mandatory.  No more excuses.

[Dman]

29 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He didn't need to be moved, the Twins had a 10.5 club option, they could have let him go and saved 10.5 million. Instead got a relief pitcher and a prospect and flyer for 5.25 million.

That is true.  They could have invested that money to get a better starting pitcher.  The problem seemed to be they only wanted a one year deal as 2025 appears to possibley be a bit of a money crunch and they seem concerned about what the TV dollars will be.

Still I like Topa and the prospects better than potentially nothing.  Fangraphs gave it a good grade not that that means anything, but if the players they got do work out it could help the team now and in the future.

Grades

"I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- but a contingent B+. They traded a lot to get Polanco — the going rate for prospects like Gonzalez and Bowen is a bit higher than this — but they didn’t have much of a choice because their trade-spree offseason had left them too light on offense. They badly needed a first-division regular, and they didn’t give up any 2024 equity to get one. Will this trade hurt them down the line? I mean, maybe. But I think they’re right to live for the now, even if the cost is a little eye-watering.

The Twins just get a straight A. They were in the position of not getting that much marginal value out of Polanco because they just so happened to have a pile of viable second basemen waiting behind him. They also needed pitching depth, far more so than your average playoff contender. The obvious move was to deal Polanco for pitching help or salary relief, and they did both. Getting two interesting prospects in the mix is a huge bonus. 10/10, would trade again."

 

 

[weneedneshek]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Oh really? Seems to be Joe Pohlad hinted at Falvey's tenure with the Twins as being pretty dicey last year. Personally, I think the payroll constraint was more of a "show me what you can do if we're not bailing your decision making out with record setting payrolls"

If Joe Pohlad made a decision that will hurt our playoff chances after our most successful season in 20 years as some sort of challenge to Falvey then he's even more of a moron than I already thought.

He slashed payroll for the same reason every other owner slashes payroll, more money in his pocket.

[jud6312]

Was this piece written by the Twins' PR office

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is true.  They could have invested that money to get a better starting pitcher.  The problem seemed to be they only wanted a one year deal as 2025 appears to possibley be a bit of a money crunch and they seem concerned about what the TV dollars will be.

Still I like Topa and the prospects better than potentially nothing.  Fangraphs gave it a good grade not that that means anything, but if the players they got do work out it could help the team now and in the future.

 

 

For a team cutting payroll after last season, spending 4 million on a prospect or two is ridiculous, leaving the current team short.

[jud6312]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So the Twins traded Polanco for a relief pitcher, a prospect and payroll deduction and the guy they thought would be a throw in 5th starter that cost 4 million shouldn't shouldn't be looked at as trading for another hurt pitcher?

The trade makes zero sense if they aren't getting a guy they think can be the 5th starter and taking on half the salary they traded away.

Wouldn't the been better off trading Polanco for 3 minor league players (regardless of their rankings) and signing a Hudson, Ross, Flexen, Turnbull for what they are paying Topa and not pay the 4 million for DeSclafani?

You forgot the lottery ticket with the questionable control and the  "live arm."

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion.

The loss of DeSclafini doesn't matter. 

However... It took one day to demonstrate that the loss of Jorge Polanco does matter. 

 

 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For a team cutting payroll after last season, spending 4 million on a prospect or two is ridiculous, leaving the current team short.

I don't completely disagree.  There are a lot of ways to spend 10M.  I don't think the Twins felt that the 4 or 5 Million they spent was just on the prospects.  More likely they felt it might take 3  to 6M or more to find a reliever that put up Topa's number's just look at what Pagan got in FA(8M).  Have to believe they thought they could get something out of Desclafani as well but that turned out to be a big miss.

So far Topa is just a one year wonder so can't say 'd bank on him being "that" good again, but I don't think you can park all that money on the prospects in that trade either.

[ashbury]

This article is revisionist history.  The Twins intended for DeSclafini to compete for the rotation, and expected him to be healthy.  Mind-reading is not my forte, but when a well-connected beat reporter (Do-Hyoung Park) states that "[t]he Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy, and he could perhaps push Louie Varland out of the starting rotation," I'm inclined to take him at his word as to what insiders told him.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-trade-jorge-polanco-to-mariners-in-5-player-deal

The Twins believed he was healthy. 

It didn't prove to be so.  That doesn't change the thinking at the time, which this article tries to portray.

[jud6312]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They still need Topa for the bullpen. If Topa performs as expected they still win the trade. He was worth more than $5.25M last year.

Isn't "expecting" someone to replicate something they never did before their age 32 season, minus two good seasons in rookie and A ball almost a decade ago, a dicey proposition in itself?

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

For a salary dump trade with one bidder that's actually a pretty impressive deal.

If by impressive you mean dealt away a good MLB everyday player for potentially nothing of any use for the 2024 Twins, then yeah, quite impressive.

[jud6312]

34 minutes ago, Beast said:

When I point fingers at “the FO,” ownership is included.  Ownership slashing payroll because of this TV deal nonsense (that they themselves negotiated) doesn’t make it OK that this rotation stinks outside of Lopez.

The way this team is currently constructed has an absolute zero chance in the playoffs.

Ryan is so up and down and home run happy that they didn’t trust him to pitch more than one inning last year.  Now we’re going to roll into a playoff series with him as the potential #2?

Ober is just Ober.  He’ll give us some good innings against bad teams this year, and maybe even end the year with a decent enough ERA, but nobody can feel good about giving that guy the ball against any potential playoff opponent.

Thats all assuming this team even makes the playoffs, which is a big if.  Many seem to think it’s a foregone conclusion.  I’m not so sure.

I don’t care about the reasons why they make awful decisions routinely.  I care about the end result.  Whether it’s the “FO” or ownership, way too many self sabotaging decisions are being made that are in excusable.  I’m tired of it.  I’m tired of the endless media and blogger barrage rationalizing the mediocrity.  I’m tired of hearing how they tried hard (but did they really?).  I’m tied of hearing about the one contract they signed that nullifies decades of intentional roster neglect.  I’m tired of hearing about the operating loss (which is BS and accounting smoke and mirrors with no connection to actual cash flows and hard profits they are pulling out of the company in the way of executive salaries and draws for their own coffers).  I’m tired of this poverty franchise and the endless propaganda campaign trying to convince me otherwise. I’m tired of being told celebrating moral victories is mandatory.  No more excuses.

YES! I've been saying this for years. If the fans, the press, and the bloggers continue settling for and celebrating mediocrity, why should ownership/the FO strive for anything more?

 

People will continue enjoying outdoor baseball and spending money on tickets, food, parking, and souvenirs as long as they field a team that competes with the rest of the teams in the Central. Throw in a playoff win once every couple of decades and call it a day.

[bean5302]

43 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

On the trade front this FO has been IMO a pretty good (or better) (Odo, Maeda, Ryan, Lopez, Duran), sure they have missed on a few but that is how baseball trades work. On the developing side of starting pitching they only have Ober to show and fingers crossed Varland which isn't great or really even very good.

I'd give the F.O. probably a C grade for trades. To me it seems like the front office does pretty poorly when it comes to finding legitimate suitors in the first place. Most of the trades worth talking about are as follows: I through a grade in for the Twins/Partner
(F/A) Hughes, Comp B -> Villalobos, Cash
(D/B) Berrios -> Martin, SWR
(A/A) Arraez -> Lopez
(F/A) Steer, CES, Hajjar -> Mahle
(A/F) Donaldson, IKF, Rortvedt -> Urshela, Sanchez
(C/A) Graterol, Raley, Comp B -> Maeda, Camargo, Cash
(B/B) Petty -> Gray, Peguero
(B/A) Escobar -> Duran, Maciel, De La Trinidad
(A/F) Odorizzi -> Palacios
(A/F) Cruz -> Ryan, Strotman
(D/D) Rogers, Rooker -> Paddack, Pagan, Medina

Keeping in mind trades have varying team control years and varying salaries, there have been awful trades, great trades, and mediocre ones. There are trades which took years and years to get a good return, and trades which went from great to bad. C average for both the Twins and the teams on the other side.

Some of the biggest deals were ones the Twins didn't make they were expected to or really should have made, but Falvey has often seemingly struggled to find suitors like for Buxton and Kepler in previous years. 

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

If Joe Pohlad made a decision that will hurt our playoff chances after our most successful season in 20 years as some sort of challenge to Falvey then he's even more of a moron than I already thought.

He slashed payroll for the same reason every other owner slashes payroll, more money in his pocket.

Since the Twins have lost money 3 of the past 4 years...

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

is this a true statement or you assuming? If so it makes it even worse they picked up his 10.5 million club option. It really means they paid 9 million for two prospects, one good and the other just a flyer.

They could have not picked it up and paid Paxton 7 million (not much more than then they are paying now) or signed Chris Flexen or Dakota Hudson for under 2 million.

Looking at the whole picture it is a terrible deal!

  They are not paying for any of Polanco's contract so how did they pay $9M for 2 prospects?

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

it's crazy how the clear concensus was that everyone wanted nothing to do with Scalafini pitching in our rotation,  yet when we all get what we want it's such a negative?  

Wait, what?

Twins fans wanted better than Desclafani in the rotation. He appeared to be a huge injury risk, and even if moderately healthy wouldn't make even a drop in covering the gaps left by Gray and Maeda. And ... those fans were 100% right. That was $4m wasted by a team that has now shifted to counting pennies.

[weneedneshek]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Since the Twins have lost money 3 of the past 4 years...

....are you quoting self reported unaudited numbers? I sure hope not

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't completely disagree.  There are a lot of ways to spend 10M.  I don't think the Twins felt that the 4 or 5 Million they spent was just on the prospects.  More likely they felt it might take 3  to 6M or more to find a reliever that put up Topa's number's just look at what Pagan got in FA(8M).  Have to believe they thought they could get something out of Desclafani as well but that turned out to be a big miss.

So far Topa is just a one year wonder so can't say 'd bank on him being "that" good again, but I don't think you can park all that money on the prospects in that trade either.

topa is making 1.25, and the twins are paying a total of 5.25, so yes it was 4 million for those two prospects.

[Dman]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

topa is making 1.25, and the twins are paying a total of 5.25, so yes it was 4 million for those two prospects.

Yeah I get that but what would it have cost them in the FA market to get an arm like Topa?  He is likely worth more than 1.25 if you don't make the trade.

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

For a team cutting payroll after last season, spending 4 million on a prospect or two is ridiculous, leaving the current team short.

The signing bonus for a fourth pick is around $500K.  $3.5M is a late teens first round pick so the two picks would cost somewhere around $4M if the picks were their own.  Would it be worth a little more to get a couple extra picks?  $4M for these prospects is far from ridiculous.  This type of strategy is one of the things a team can do to overcome the fact that there are teams that can spend twice as much on players.

Players acquired as prospects have produced considerably more WAR than drafted players for most of the 90 win teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Lots of people taking a very strong stance without having the information on how successful teams were constructed by teams with similar or less revenue.   Trading for established players has played the smallest role over the past couple of decades.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The signing bonus for a fourth pick is around $500K.  $3.5M is a late teens first round pick so the two picks would cost somewhere around $4M if the picks were their own.  Would it be worth a little more to get a couple extra picks?  $4M for these prospects is far from ridiculous.  This type of strategy is one of the things a team can do to overcome the fact that there are teams that can spend twice as much on players.

Players acquired as prospects have produced considerably more WAR than drafted players for most of the 90 win teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Lots of people taking a very strong stance without having the information on how successful teams were constructed by teams with similar or less revenue.   Trading for established players has played the smallest role over the past couple of decades.

It isn't ridiculous to pay that for prospects and a very good strategy, it is ridiculous to claim you are broke then pick up a 10.5 million option and spend 5.25 on a relief pitcher for the year and two minor league players. That is my point and what I have been trying to say thru out the thread. If you do this scenario and sign a starter (even somebody like Dakota Hudson) and don't leave a division winning team short on starter depth, I would be all for it. Trading for a relief pitcher, two prospects, a wild card starter and signing another starter all for less than Polanco's salary is a great move.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, jud6312 said:

Was this piece written by the Twins' PR office

I thought it was an April Fools article 

[DJL44]

47 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

Isn't "expecting" someone to replicate something they never did before their age 32 season, minus two good seasons in rookie and A ball almost a decade ago, a dicey proposition in itself?

If there wasn't some risk they wouldn't be able to get him for just $5.25M. Consistently productive bullpen arms cost $8-10M a season (or higher). It's impossible for the Twins to create a competitive roster for $130M without taking on a bunch of risk.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Another part of the issue... Even with his injuries, Polanco outplayed his salary basically every year.  He wasn't overpriced, if anything he was under-valued.  This trade never should have happened.  It looks even worse now that Lewis is out.

Agreed, this trade should not have happened. We let go of a healthy Polanco that have been our best clutch hitter for a SP that anybody who had any sense knew he wasn't going to contribute anything, Yet FO was able to get a large fanbase excited about how he was going to impact the Twins. An overrated top 100 cOF prospect who shouldn't hit with enough power to profile at that position, a free swinger that the Twins will try to transform like Astudillo (Astudillo was a better glove) into a slugger they desire. IMO he will never make the club. Topa a RP that the Twins usually pick up via waivers or MiLB signee. & a low lotto ticket. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I never liked Polo at 3B.  His sidearmed throws were slow and suspect accuracy-wise.  We still would have played Castro and Farmer at 3B with Lewis out and just not brought up Martin if Polo was still here.

I agree...Polo wasn't any kind of realistic 3b option.

But he'd look a whole lot better at DH than Manny Mar-gone.

There was room on this roster for Polanco. You wouldn't need Santana, for one thing. No reason he couldn't play 1B.

And if he needed trading, there was a better return out there than DeSclafani, a 30+ yr old reliever with zero history, and an A ball outfielder. 

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It isn't ridiculous to pay that for prospects and a very good strategy, it is ridiculous to claim you are broke then pick up a 10.5 million option and spend 5.25 on a relief pitcher for the year and two minor league players. That is my point and what I have been trying to say thru out the thread. If you do this scenario and sign a starter (even somebody like Dakota Hudson) and don't leave a division winning team short on starter depth, I would be all for it. Trading for a relief pitcher, two prospects, a wild card starter and signing another starter all for less than Polanco's salary is a great move.

I don't think there were many if anyone on the board that felt DeSclafani was a solid option.  I did my best to talk myself into being OK even if he could pitch well for just the first two months it felt like it could be a win.  Turns out as most expected he won't even pitch at all this year.

I get your point about crying poor and now it looks like you spent 5M on two suspect prospects and a one year wonder reliever who is likely going to regress from last year and even he is hurt to start the year.  The optics are bad right now.  I am just not as ready as others to call it a terrible move just yet.

Unless Polanco is hurt the Mariners are likely to get the better end of this trade this year and maybe even next year as well, but if Topa can be effective and one of the two prospects helps by making it or being trade bait there is potential for this to work out well for the Twins too.  

[jimbo92107]

3 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

Sounds a little ( a lot?) like a colonoscopy!

Wait...I have a colonoscopy scheduled for this week.

Should I stop throwing?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

This article is revisionist history.  The Twins intended for DeSclafini to compete for the rotation, and expected him to be healthy.  Mind-reading is not my forte, but when a well-connected beat reporter (Do-Hyoung Park) states that "[t]he Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy, and he could perhaps push Louie Varland out of the starting rotation," I'm inclined to take him at his word as to what insiders told him.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-trade-jorge-polanco-to-mariners-in-5-player-deal

The Twins believed he was healthy. 

It didn't prove to be so.  That doesn't change the thinking at the time, which this article tries to portray.

I mean, if the team was merely hoping he "could perhaps" compete to be the 5th starter, how much did they really value him though? Unless your rotation is stacked, all you're ever doing with the 5th/6th starter is crossing your fingers regarding production or health or both.

This team failed hard this offseason, but that was in not acquiring a guy for the top of the rotation. Polanco himself was never going to get that kind of arm.

[Schmoeman5]

I always thought DeSclafani was a throw in. There is no way the Twins were going into 2024 counting on him to be a part of the starting rotation knowing his injury history. But that's what they were selling the fans. The Mariners got what they wanted and needed without giving up anything the Twins need. Topa the morning may help when he's ready. I don't care if Polanco is 0 for 50. He WILL contribute. Topa MIGHT. The Twins might still get something out of this trade in the future. But for the 2024 season it is doubtful. And that trade was supposed to add help NOW. I'm not seeing it. So how does this trade rate an A B or C. I'll grudgingly give them a D-