Why You Shouldn't Lump Anthony DeSclafani In With Other Injured Twins Pitching Acquisitions

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Congratulations for assembling statistically meaningless, cherrypicked data.  

If you are serious about working with data I'd recommend taking a statistics 101 course .  EdX or the like have some good online options, or check your local community education center or community college.  Honestly it's not the most exciting material but it's one of the most helpful courses I ever took as an undergrad.  Once you do a lot of the things posters here have been telling you might make more sense.  Good luck to you on your journey.  

I found the 101 course helpful in the 201/301/401 and the 501 course that was required in my MBA program but thanks for the advice just the same.  

The data includes the 5 best seasons for the teams that had the most playoff appearances, and all of the acquisition methods were covered.  Also included are the 3 best seasons for the next tier of teams which of course did not have nearly as many good seasons.  It would be great if you or any of the other posters you referenced would explain why this is cherry picking.   

I am even more curious as to if you are willing to actually explain your position.  I just seems fair that if you are going to be this critical that you be willing to explain the problem with this approach with some specificity.

[Woof Bronzer]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am even more curious as to if you are willing to actually explain your position.  I just seems fair that if you are going to be this critical that you be willing to explain the problem with this approach with some specificity.

I, and many other posters, have explained to you the problems with your "analysis".  It's clear you are extremely invested in your narrative and nothing anyone says is going to change your mind.  That's totally fine, you do you.  But I'm not going to engage any further.  Good luck to you on your intellectual journey and remember:  there's nothing more powerful than an open mind.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I, and many other posters, have explained to you the problems with your "analysis".  It's clear you are extremely invested in your narrative and nothing anyone says is going to change your mind.  That's totally fine, you do you.  But I'm not going to engage any further.  Good luck to you on your intellectual journey and remember:  there's nothing more powerful than an open mind.  

Insisting the analysis is cherry picking is not an explanation.  It's a statement.  I simply asked you to offer an explanation as to what set of data would make more sense than to use the best teams these organizations have ever fielded and look at how many players were acquired via every potential acquisition method.    Show me where someone explained what set of data would be better to show how the best teams have been constructed.  Now that you have been asked to explain what makes this data set "cherry picking", you want to quit.  This does not require a lot of effort.  Tell me what specific data set would best facilitate determining the best acquisition strategies.  I used 5 years from the 3 teams with by far the most successful seasons since the turn of the century and the 3 best years from the next tier of terms of success.  Every potential method was totaled for each team.  

So, are you going to run in hide or are you willing to support the statements you made so ardently?   

[Riverbrian]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:11 PM, Major League Ready said:

This is your opinion of who he starts over.   If the twins agreed with you, Polanco would still be here.  They don't want a full-time DH and neither do most teams.  And, if they wanted a full-time DH, Martinez would have made much more sense.  They would have a better hitter, a good RP, and two good prospects.

In addition, he is an inferior choice over Kirilloff against RHP and Inferior to Santana against LHP.  The only time he would not be an inferior choice is at DH.

Quoting for display purposes

[Riverbrian]

On 4/2/2024 at 2:34 PM, Major League Ready said:

This is true only if the twins were willing to devote a roster to a player who is primarily a DH.  Most teams don't want to devote a spot to a DH and if the twins were to do so Martinez made more sense. 

Who does he replace in the field?  Julien is the superior and cheaper player at 2B against RHP.  Farmer is the superior player a 2B against LHP.   Lewis the much better player at 3B.  Kirilloff is the equivalent player at 1B against RHP and much cheaper.  Santana is the superior player at 1B against LHP.  So, when is he the preferred starter?

There is also the issue of having room on the roster for Brooks Lee.

Quoting for display purposes. 

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Quoting for display purposes. 

That post was very clearly directed at if there was anytime other than DH where Polanco would be the best choice.   It's a big reach to say this suggests that Santana was justification for getting rid of Polanco.  

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That post was very clearly directed at if there was anytime other than DH where Polanco would be the best choice.   It's a big reach to say this suggests that Santana was justification for getting rid of Polanco.  

No it really isn't.  

Since Santana's place on the roster is easily replaced by Polanco and you are claiming there is no place for Polanco to play other than DH. 

 

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

No it really isn't.  

Since Santana's place on the roster is easily replaced by Polanco and you are claiming there is no place for Polanco to play other than DH. 

 

Apparently, you know what I meant to communicate better than I do myself.  First, Polanco is not a 1B.  Even if they put him there,  Kirilloff is the better option against RHP and Santana better (historically) against LHP.  So, he is not playing 1B.  His only option is 3B if Lewis / Lee, and Correa are injured at the same time.  Of course, that happened but what are the odds?  The team is pretty much cooked if that situation persists and keeping Polanco would not come remotely close to making this team a contender.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Apparently, you know what I meant to communicate better than I do myself.  First, Polanco is not a 1B.  Even if they put him there,  Kirilloff is the better option against RHP and Santana better (historically) against LHP.  So, he is not playing 1B.  His only option is 3B if Lewis / Lee, and Correa are injured at the same time.  Of course, that happened but what are the odds?  The team is pretty much cooked if that situation persists and keeping Polanco would not come remotely close to making this team a contender.

 

What are the odds? I don't know but I've stated it over and over and over again. With the injury history of Lewis, Buxton and Kirilloff the odds would have to be higher than normal... whatever they are. 

Here's a post from February having a pleasant honest conversation with Jorgenswest. 

Posted February 14

  On 2/14/2024 at 12:18 PM, jorgenswest said:

The Vazquez decision was made when the budget wasn’t as tight and Jeffers was shaky. I can give them a pass on that. I also think the voice of that veteran catcher in those meeting with the pitchers and pitching staff was valuable to not only Jeffers but the pitchers and the coaches. It is hard to accept the other three and I hope they are willing cut their losses with any/all of the three early in the season.

Need a right handed short side platoon bat at 2B? They have Martin, Helman, Prato, Goodrum and even Lee all inexpensive. Why not give Julien a few more starts against a lefty and bat him 9th? The way pitchers are used he may only need see that lefty once and certainly not three times. 

Need a short side platoon bat at 1B? Why not try Miranda first followed by Severino? Give Kirilloff some starts against a lefty at the bottom of the order at times.

I would have combined those dollars to get an everyday bat or an upgrade to Varland in the rotation.

 

Short side platoon addendum.

Is it wise to have multiple bats whose value is in a short side platoon? The Earl Weaver platoon days of 15 rostered position players and starters pitching 7 or more innings are long gone. You can’t carry a Benny Ayala on your roster most of the season and have him face a right handed pitcher in just 9 plate appearances. Everyone on the roster needs to able to hit right handed pitching just as every bullpen arm is going to see high leverage. 

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Great post as usual.

Being a GM is a tough job and I'm not willing to hang them for the decisions that they make... after all sometimes these 1 year guys have good years and are worth the money.

However... the failure rate has become high in my opinion and the most simple thing that you can do is not let them double down on the mistake. Spending the money is a mistake but the money spent can't hurt you unless you make the bigger mistake of letting the money spent mistake step to the plate continuously or take the mound continuously. The bottom line to me is pretty simple. A vet on an expiring contract has to perform at the very least average because you can find at least average or close to average waiting in the wings below.  

Agreed on the short side Platoon. The true short sider (Garlick for example) is a waste of a roster spot. In the case of Farmer... I'll bet anyone money that he will face more right handers than left handers this year. You can set up these pretty platoons in the off-season... they will be blown apart before April is over due to injury or poor performance... and in order to keep the platoon integrity you are signing Luplow and signing Luplow over promoting Larnach for example because of short side splits is just going to kill Larnach.