Imitation Game: 3 Ways the Twins Emulate the Rays

[Cody Christie]

Rocco Baldelli joined the Twins after spending most of his professional career in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. Here are three ways the Twins are trying to emulate what has made the Rays successful over the last decade.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Throughout MLB, teams continue to try and emulate the teams that have found continued success on the field and in their development process. For many owners, the Tampa Bay Rays have become the shining beacon, paving a path for other organizations. They are consistently one of baseball’s best teams while touting a minimal payroll and ranking as one of the top MLB farm systems. Every ownership group would love their team to be run like the Rays, and that’s why other franchises look to imitate their most successful strategies.

Earlier this winter, Joe Pohlad made a controversial interview tour to try to explain some of the decisions made by the organization. "I think in today's game you can see there are a number of different ways to win," Pohlad said when discussing cutting payroll during the offseason. "You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays and with the Baltimore Orioles having lower payrolls, turning out very successful products on the field but also investing in other areas of the business. That is something that we are doing. But without a question the television situation is having an impact on our business but beyond that we're just trying to right-size our business. That goes into it as well."

So, what are the ways the Twins are emulating the Rays?

Lower Payroll
Tampa Bay has been known for its frugal spending throughout its history, tied to its small market and terrible ballpark. Over the last three seasons, the Rays have averaged a $88 million payroll, including a $99 million estimated payroll for 2024. Unfortunately for Tampa, Wander Franco comprises 16.7% of their total payroll, even though he is on an indefinite stay on administrative leave for acts committed in the Dominican Republic. The Rays are often forced to trade away talent before free agency as the club did with Tyler Glasnow, which restocks their farm system and keeps them as perennial contenders. 

The Twins dropped their payroll by the third-highest percentage of any team this winter. Most of the top five teams have revenue issues due to the collapse of regional sports networks. Minnesota’s ownership group claims the club has been outspending its revenue in recent years, so a payroll cut was required. Compared to other AL clubs, the Twins have the seventh-lowest payroll, which puts them in the middle of the pack and second in the AL Central. Next season, Pablo Lopez sees his contract extension kick in, which raises his salary from $8.25 million to $21.75 million. Other younger players will also be making more money as they reach arbitration. Minnesota’s payroll issues aren’t going away, especially with an uncertain television future. 

Platooning
Platooning hitters has been a strategy managers employ for decades because it has proven to work. Overall, hitters fare worse against same-handed pitchers, with left-handed hitters struggling more than righties in these matchups. The Twins have fared poorly in recent years against southpaws, and one of the biggest reasons for those struggles has been Byron Buxton’s constant injury issues. Over the past three seasons, the Twins rank 20th in overall team production (.312 wOBA) against left-handed pitching and 17th (.323) against left-handed starting pitching. 

The Twins have young left-handed hitters who will begin games on the bench when the opposition starts a tough lefty. Matt Wallner posted a .481 OPS versus southpaws last season compared to a .970 OPS against righties. Edouard Julien’s OPS dropped from .898 against righties to a .447 against lefties. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli also has an opportunity to start a completely right-handed lineup (with one switch hitter) against lefties this season if he is willing to have one of his catchers serve as DH. Platooning isn’t going away, even for the team’s young core. 

Power Bullpen
The Twins are projected to have one of baseball’s top-ranked starting staffs in 2024, but the bullpen might take on an even more critical role. Minnesota’s front office took a different approach to bullpen creation this winter, and the relief core is projected to be among baseball’s best. Many things can go wrong when projecting bullpen numbers, especially with the sample size that relievers throw in any given season. Still, it is exciting to think about how Baldelli will be able to unleash this group, especially with the assembled depth. 

Earlier this winter, Nick wrote about how the Twins might be able to utilize their bullpen as a weapon this season using a strategy similar to Tampa Bay. Last season, the Rays led the AL in pitching fWAR while getting the third-fewest innings from their starters. Starters struggle when opposing batters see a pitcher for a third time, so it makes sense to avoid that situation. Besides Pablo Lopez, few Twins starters will likely be allowed to pitch to a lineup for a third time. Fans should get used to Baldelli handing the game over to the bullpen in the fifth or sixth inning. There are plenty of things to get excited about for the 2024 season, and the bullpen is certainly high on that list. 

How else will the Twins try to imitate the Rays? Which strategy will work the best for the current roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Karbo]

Though I'm unhappy about it, I can understand the Twins being pro-active and cutting payroll. I expect to see it raise some next year but probably not much. The last few years the FO has done a pretty good job building the farm system up, so I expect to see more pre-arb type youngsters coming along. With the over all decline of the sports popularity, I don't expect to see any huge TV contracts being offered. However, following the Rays blue print I could see the FO getting more active with trades before guys hit free agency. The Rays have managed to stay pretty competitive this way and for the next few years that may be enough in the Central division. I'm thankful the Twins aren't in the East!

[JD-TWINS]

I don’t have any data on the decline of the Sport’s Popularity……don’t know if that’s real or presumed? I hear talks of expansion into new cities. Seems to me lots of people still going to ballparks all over the country, particularly if there is a winning product on the field. ………an opinion and not necessarily fact, is that TV revenues are down due to inability to harness how the Product is viewed. Therefore ad $$ don’t make as much sense to spend on network televised games. Just a thought.

I sure hope the Team doesn’t go to the extremes that the Rays & Baltimore have gone. If they do we’ll need a Program with player’s names to watch the team from year to year due to almost no continuity nor polished veterans.

Twins should draw 2 million this year with reasonable success. That, along with some 50% split of their TV $$$, big revenue share $$$ from MLB and revenues seem fairly strong, at least to me.

Platoons make perfect sense offensively and flexible defensive guys are valuable as well. Inexpensive bullpen pieces are a great way to be effective and keep costs down……the organization should be applauded. Guys like Ober - Festa - Julien are well scouted and developed lower draft picks…….again, well done by organization!

My recollection is we pulled off a “Ray’s trade” with the Rays when sending Cruz & acquiring Ryan. Not sure that the Ray’s are so much ahead of everyone with their approach - they have shrewd guys running things and I honestly believe the Twins F.O. - despite some mistakes/misfortune - are doing a really solid job with F.A. within budget constraints and with the youth coming through the system. The recent Polanco trade may not work out but on paper …..Topa with the Top 76 prospect OF is a good move for a declining 2B making $10.5M. DeSclafani and other prospect were throw-ins.

If the organization can stay between #15-#19 in spending, per recent years, they should remain competitive, ongoing.

 

[rv78]

You forgot the 4th way the Twins emulate the Rays. In 1998 Tampa Bay joined MLB. Since that time the Twins have just as many Championships as the Rays.

ZERO! 

[old nurse]

Pitch count per pitcher may well be what the Twins use to determine how long a pitcher pitches. Total batters faced would show that they get through part of a lineup a third time. Lopez averaged 24, Grey 23, Ober and Ryan 22.. you can put the myth that they will only go twice through a lineup where it belongs 

[Parfigliano]

33 minutes ago, rv78 said:

You forgot the 4th way the Twins emulate the Rays. In 1998 Tampa Bay joined MLB. Since that time the Twins have just as many Championships as the Rays.

ZERO! 

True.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Comments from other fan sites (specifically Seattle) suggested that a high end pitcher could have been acquired. The cost: Royce Lewis.

Perceived value is always going to be an issue. Would you have traded Royce for Logan Gilbert?

For Jesus Luzardo?

What more would we have had to give up?

The Rays have traded away talented and fan favorite players. Hard to keep children as fans when you keep trading away their favorite players 

[Otaknam]

I’m not convinced the bullpen will be lights out. And I’m not a fan of pulling the starters after five innings, as Rocco frequently likes to do, which further taxes the bullpen. Show some confidence in the starters to get a few more outs and stop managing totally by algorithm. 

[Jocko87]

I hesitated to click this one, knowing it could go one of two ways. Yup, sure enough, just another payroll article. Sigh.

I've come to the conclusion that 98% of the true payroll haters are actually in the media. Self fulfilling prophecy.

[Beast]

The Rays haven’t won a damn thing and never will.  My local amateur team has better attendance.  Why would we want to emulate them?  I don’t care about little engine that could moral victories.

I’d rather employ a strategy that has a history of winning a World Series.  If you think a team like the As or Rays (the Royals don’t even count, they spent a fair amount money and acquired high end  via trade when they won the World Series) popping up for one or two seasons every 30 years by the grace of God is some sort of proof this is superior strategy…..it’s completely illogical and devoid of any sort of real evidence.  It’s a Pohlad trying to cover his ass.  It’s a mechanism used by fans of hopeless, cheap, small market teams to give themselves hope.  There’s no hope in that strategy.  It’s decade long rebuild cycles in the hope of stumbling into enough prospect volume to eventually make to the very fringe of contention for a couple of a years, before starting the process over again.  Fans of those teams are lucky if they see one World Series appearance in their lifetimes.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

You forgot the 4th way the Twins emulate the Rays. In 1998 Tampa Bay joined MLB. Since that time the Twins have just as many Championships as the Rays.

ZERO! 

The article is about strategies.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

And I’m not a fan of pulling the starters after five innings, as Rocco frequently likes to do

The 2023 Twins were tied for third in all the majors in innings per start.

When Rocco has the horses, he lets them run.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

The article is about strategies.

It is, but as much as people like to sing the praises of TB, they only had the one year where they made a dent in the playoffs. These strategies are clearly great for the regular season, but I'm not sure they translate in the post season. Having enough players who don't need to be taken off of the field for platooning, along with having some top end starting pitching seems like it's needed come October. A roster full of platoon players and using 'bullpen' games in the post season doesn't seem to work too well.

As it is, I think the current Twins are trying to copy the Rays, who are in fact re-enacting a version of the Twins and A's from the first decade this century. I don't want to emulate that.

[Schmoeman5]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The 2023 Twins were tied for third in all the majors in innings per start.

When Rocco has the horses, he lets them run.

And if the bullpen is not dependable then one would tend to stick with the horses a little longer. Which is the lesser of two weevils?

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

You forgot the 4th way the Twins emulate the Rays. In 1998 Tampa Bay joined MLB. Since that time the Twins have just as many Championships as the Rays.

ZERO! 

This is a great point. In 26 seasons the Rays have won 100 games once.4 division titles. And this is who we want to emulate? 

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I’m not convinced the bullpen will be lights out. And I’m not a fan of pulling the starters after five innings, as Rocco frequently likes to do, which further taxes the bullpen. Show some confidence in the starters to get a few more outs and stop managing totally by algorithm. 

I'm not convinced of the Pen either. Other than Duran we have guys with a very short history of success. Stewart has last years all of 27 IP. Topa is 33 y/o and 1 good season. Jackson a few good IP last year. Projections mean nothing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

Comments from other fan sites (specifically Seattle) suggested that a high end pitcher could have been acquired. The cost: Royce Lewis.

Perceived value is always going to be an issue. Would you have traded Royce for Logan Gilbert?

For Jesus Luzardo?

What more would we have had to give up?

The Rays have traded away talented and fan favorite players. Hard to keep children as fans when you keep trading away their favorite players 

Grown ups too

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

This is a great point. In 26 seasons the Rays have won 100 games once.4 division titles. And this is who we want to emulate? 

That's a ridiculous metric.  How many teams win over 100 games.  If you use a reasonable metric like 90 games, three teams in the lower half of revenue have significantly outperformed all other teams of similar revenue since the turn of the century,  Oakland and Cleveland have had (10) 90 win seasons, and Tampa (9).  The next closest are Seattle and Minnesota with 7 & 6.  The Brewers and White Sox have 5.   All others have between 1-4.  The only team in this revenue class to win the WS in the last 18 years was Kansas City who has a total of (1) 90 win season since the turn of the century and the worst overall record in the league.

For just a moment, I thought this could be an article about roster building strategies that have been working for teams with equal or less revenue.   Low payroll is not a strategy.  It's a limitation based on revenue.  A discussion on strategies to counteract the revenue disparity that is here to stay would have been a refreshing change.

Who should the Twins emulate?  Which franchises with similar or less revenue are the best run?

[bean5302]

Tampa Bay is an embarrassment to MLB. While their methodology technically works, it only works because the team is a charity franchise floated by the other teams in the league, and that's part of their strategy. The Rays' owner doesn't care about the fans, the attendance or fielding a team that supports itself. Many teams receive revenue sharing, including the Twins, but no team builds revenue sharing as a core component of the franchise's long term operation quite like the Rays do.

In terms of the Rays' player development and roster strategies, the Twins do not closely emulate it in my opinion. The Rays draft pitching, pitching, and more pitching which is a major reason the franchise is so successful at continuing to produce quality starters. Controllable starting pitching demands a significant premium, and the Rays trade that controllable pitching away at a premium to make up for their lack of position player drafting and development. This is a market inequity the Rays exploit. The Rays then fill out their roster with short term, low dollar veteran players who are rebound candidates or guys who might have a year or two left before the wheels fall off.

I'm not sure the Twins have followed the Rays in terms of on field strategies much, either. I think the Twins have their own evaluations for strategy. Kind of a convergent evolution where we see overlaps of similar strategies on the field.

[sweetmusicviola16]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's a ridiculous metric.  How many teams win over 100 games.  If you use a reasonable metric like 90 games, three teams in the lower half of revenue have significantly outperformed all other teams of similar revenue since the turn of the century,  Oakland and Cleveland have had (10) 90 win seasons, and Tampa (9).  The next closest are Seattle and Minnesota with 7 & 6.  The Brewers and White Sox have 5.   All others have between 1-4.  The only team in this revenue class to win the WS in the last 18 years was Kansas City who has a total of (1) 90 win season since the turn of the century and the worst overall record in the league.

For just a moment, I thought this could be an article about roster building strategies that have been working for teams with equal or less revenue.   Low payroll is not a strategy.  It's a limitation based on revenue.  A discussion on strategies to counteract the revenue disparity that is here to stay would have been a refreshing change.

Who should the Twins emulate?  Which franchises with similar or less revenue are the best run?

Maybe one that has won a WS? In case you haven't noticed the Twins are going on 33 years. The Rays are going on 27. I believe those amazing Money Ball A's go back to 1988 or 1989. Cleveland I'm not even interested in looking up, it's been awhile. Division titles are held up as greatness only for those org's that are not serious about WS titles.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

The Rays haven’t won a damn thing and never will...

...I’d rather employ a strategy that has a history of winning a World Series...

Winning a World series sounds great. You have to get there to win it. If you do the straight math, a team should get to a World Series once every 15 years and win it once every 30 years.

2008 World Series (L)
2020 World Series (L)

2008 Division Champions
2010 Division Champions
2020 Division Champions
2021 Division Champions

2011 Wild Card (1 of 1)
2013 Wild Card (1 of 2)
2019 Wild Card (1 of 2)
2022 Wild Card (1 of 3)
2023 Wild Card (1 of 3)

It's worth noting the Rays play in what is historically the toughest division in baseball trying to eek out wins against the monster market Yankees and Red Sox. Credit where credit's due. 9 playoff berths in 14 years from 2008-2023 and 2 World Series appearances.

Compare that to the Twins. 6 playoff berths, 0 World Series. 0 AL Championship series playing in what has become the weakest division in baseball over the past 5 years.

[DocBauer]

"Three ways the Twins emulate the Rays".

Nothing in the headline or the OP stated they were trying to BE the Rays. 

PLATOONING? Platooning has been going on decade after decade in baseball. 8-9 guys in the lineup and usually a 12 or 13  man roster. Some bat RH, some LH, a few SH. Not  everyone hits  against both sides of arms on the mound. So there  are platoons here and there in the lineup. Not everyone, but a few spots.  This is not unique to the Rays, to the Twins, or to anyone else. Everyone platoons to some degree, here and there, and always has.

POWER BULLPEN: Do we mean a hard throwing pen? Or just a good and deep pen that gets outs? I don't think it's just semantics. I think concentrating on a quality good pen is a good idea. Maybe it's an actual change in the game, maybe it's just a change in perception, but I do think there has been a greater emphasis on the depth and quality of a pen for a winning team. I think there's different ways of doing it. I don't think the FO has ever ignored the pen, but I do think this offseason they've made it more of a target than in past offseasons. I do think that the Rays are an inventive organization and as a result, I think a lot of teams have at least examined what they do. And they might be one of the teams that has really changed the usage and emphasis on the pen in recent years. So taking a good long look at someone who's doing something different and effectively is always a good thing.

CUTTING PAYROLL: I don't think the Twins cut payroll in any way simply because the Rays have done OK with lower payrolls. If that were the case, then why didn't the Twins start about 4 or 5 years ago when they were on a seeming yearly climb in payroll? We can debate until we're all blue in the face...err, fingers...as to what the Twins bring in and their expenditures and where payroll is or should be. And I'm not saying I'm happy about the lowered payroll this year. ESPECIALLY because RIGHT NOW, they MIGHT have a chance to make a 1yr splurge on someone still sitting out there. But right or wrong, agree or disagree, 100% or only partially honest, the payroll didn't get cut until the TV deal looked to be over and done and gone. There's ZERO evidence after raising payroll for multiple consecutive years they suddenly woke up one morning and said to themselves: "Hey, the Rays don't spend. Let's cut payroll to be like them."

I think learning how to do more with less is smart. I think building the best system you can is smart. I think building a good framework for pitchers to succeed is smart. I think finding the best ways to maximize your roster is smart. I think being careful at times to not offer too big or long of an extension to a player and a FA can be smart.

But I don't think anyone is cutting payroll in Minnesota because someone else is running on a lesser one.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

The 2023 Twins were tied for third in all the majors in innings per start.

When Rocco has the horses, he lets them run.

Yeah, I've noticed that too.

And is it just me, or does it seem like every time the starter sucks, the Twins don't let him pitch the third time through the order? Amazing how that works. 😃

[IndianaTwin]

When people talk about the Rays starters averaging fewer innings than other teams, they don't take into account the Opener effect.

If you use a two-inning Opener 15 times over the course of the year, your innings per start number is going to drop by about 0.3.

It's a little hard to see how often the Rays used an Opener last year, but they had 17 starts on three or fewer days rest, which points to an Opener. They had 20 games when a starter didn't pitch to any batters a second time. A starter could have been shelled, but more often that's an Opener.

So it looks like they used an Opener at least 15 times. It's not unusual an Opener goes less than two full innings, but even you use the 15 x 2 figure and add 0.3 to the Rays' 4.9 average, voila, they are above average at 5.2.

Eflin, Glassnow and McClanahan combined to average 5.6 innings per start.

The Rays don't "pull their starters early" -- they just use an Opener more often than other teams. 

[Schmoeman5]

6 hours ago, rv78 said:

You forgot the 4th way the Twins emulate the Rays. In 1998 Tampa Bay joined MLB. Since that time the Twins have just as many Championships as the Rays.

ZERO! 

So putting oneself into position to possibly win it every year doesn't count for anything? Those 80s and 90s Atlanta teams were failures. They only won 1. Or the high spending Dodgers.  The Astros of the past 10 years is who I'd rather emulate. But at least get to the dance. That rotation Tampa started the year with was the best in baseball. Injuries killed them. And who couldve predicted the Franco incident. To say their approach isnt working because theve never won it is just an easy way to argue a point that isn't true. Once you're there. Anything can happen. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Maybe one that has won a WS? In case you haven't noticed the Twins are going on 33 years. The Rays are going on 27. I believe those amazing Money Ball A's go back to 1988 or 1989. Cleveland I'm not even interested in looking up, it's been awhile. Division titles are held up as greatness only for those org's that are not serious about WS titles.

We have an enormous amount of complaining in general terms without any specific examples of success.  The simple fact is that none of the below average revenue teams are winning WS with any frequency and they also have less playoff success.  Therefore, the constant complaining while using WS wins is a nonsensical rant.   I will ask again, which franchise of equal or less revenue is the model for success.  The only one to win a WS in recent years is Kansas City.  Outside of that year, they have zero 90 win seasons and the worst record in all of MLB.   Is that success?   Do you want to watch a miserable team year after year if a WS win is sandwiched between consistent ineptitude?

So, instead of telling us the organizations that have put a good product on the field don't count because they have not won the WS often enough, tell us what franchises are the model to follow.   Examples of success and how that success was achieved is informative and has value.   The constant whining has no value.  Show us concrete examples of teams that have put a better product on the field compared to As, Ray's and Guardians,.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We have an enormous amount of complaining in general terms without any specific examples of success.  I will ask again, which franchise of equal or less revenue is the model for success.  The only one to win a WS in recent years is Kansas City.  Outside of that year, they have zero 90 win seasons and the worst record in all of MLB.   Is that success?   Do you want to watch a miserable team year after year if a WS win is sandwiched between consistent ineptitude?

So, instead of telling us the organizations that have put a good product on the field don't count because they have not won the WS often enough, tell us what franchises are the model to follow.   Examples of success and how that success was achieved is informative and has value.   The constant whining has no value.  Show us concrete examples of teams that have put a better product on the field compared to As, Ray's and Guardians,.

Complaining and whining? How about if you converse without insulting?  Be decent. Neither complaining or whining was in any of my posts. 

Here's some concrete numbers:

Between the Twins, Cle, TB and Oak they have went a combined 167 seasons without a WS title. In those 167 seasons you have 7 WS losses. The last WS win was by the Twins in 1991. This isn't success. Not the success I want anyway. 

[old nurse]

13 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Complaining and whining? How about if you converse without insulting?  Be decent. Neither complaining or whining was in any of my posts. 

Here's some concrete numbers:

Between the Twins, Cle, TB and Oak they have went a combined 167 seasons without a WS title. In those 167 seasons you have 7 WS losses. The last WS win was by the Twins in 1991. This isn't success. Not the success I want anyway. 

But you still have no solution that fits the parameters of what the Twins are. Therefore you come across as a complainer 

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Complaining and whining? How about if you converse without insulting?  Be decent. Neither complaining or whining was in any of my posts. 

Here's some concrete numbers:

Between the Twins, Cle, TB and Oak they have went a combined 167 seasons without a WS title. In those 167 seasons you have 7 WS losses. The last WS win was by the Twins in 1991. This isn't success. Not the success I want anyway. 

I specifically said "instead of telling us the organizations that have put a good product on the field don't count because they have not won the WS often enough, tell us what franchises are the model to follow.   Examples of success and how that success was achieved is informative and has value.   Show us concrete examples of teams that have put a better product on the field compared to As, Ray's and Guardians and how they did it."  Yet, you came back with what they had not done.  IDK.  I want to know what practices will yield better results and you have nothing to say about a solution.  That approach has no value other than to complain.

Would you prefer to have the Royals of the past 25 years?  They have a WS and have been the worst team in the league by other measures such as overall wins and 90 win seasons.  It comes of as complaining when you use the standard of WS wins when that measure is very often not achieved by very good teams and rarely achieved by teams with revenue at or below the level of the Twins.   If you were the top tier of performance in your company most years, I doubt you would feel it fair if your employer reviewed your performance has having "done nothing" because you were not #1.

[rv78]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

The article is about strategies.

And when the Rays prove that strategy wins Championships, then and only then, does it become a good one.