Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop

[Nick Nelson]

The first season of Carlos Correa's mega-deal with the Twins was mostly underwhelming, but ended on a high note. Now he's looking to rebound into MVP-caliber form, while leading a team with clear World Series aspirations.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins managed to win the AL Central and advance in the playoffs last year despite receiving a career-worst season (by far) from Carlos Correa, freshly signed to a franchise-record $200-million contract. Imagine what they're capable of this year, if he can return to something resembling his typical All-Star form. 

That's what the Twins are banking on from their $36 million man, whose salary accounts for more than a quarter of total payroll. Spending limitations prevented the front office from being able to add much around Correa and their young core this year, so the Twins will need him to elevate and earn the hefty paycheck on the field if they want to achieve their ambitious goals. 

TWINS SHORTSTOPS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Carlos Correa
Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Royce Lewis, Willi Castro
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Danny De Andrade

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 15th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30

THE GOOD
In a very disappointing 2023 campaign, Correa left a strong lasting impression, posting an .840 OPS in 15 September games and then starring for the Twins in October, where he batted .409 with three doubles and four RBIs in six games. Delivering when it counted most (along with his obvious leadership impact and dependable availability) made it feel like the team got no shortage of value from Correa, even as his on-field results suffered.

While there were definitely concerning signs in his performance decline, Correa is still only 29 and was battling plantar fasciitis for much of the season, so there's reason to view 2023 as a blip, rather than a trend. He experienced similar offensive struggles in the abbreviated pandemic season, when he slashed .264/.326/.383, but bounced back with a career-high 6.2 fWAR in 2021. Minnesota is hoping he's got a similar turnaround in him now, at a critical moment.

Early signs in camp are promising. Correa says he's now pain-free, after the foot issue lingered into the offseason. He reports that he worked on his mechanics during the winter to gain more confidence in his swing, which was evidently out of whack last year.

At his best, Correa is clearly one of the best shortstops in baseball, and his impact goes well beyond what he provides on the field. Even a modest offensive rebound would make him a highly valuable overall asset to the team, while a return to his previous norm will likely put him in the MVP conversation.

THE BAD
It's convenient to pass off Correa's unprecedented struggles last year as entirely the byproduct of his plantar fasciitis, and to assume he'll put it all behind him now that the issue has (ostensibly) been resolved--maybe too convenient.

Correa was originally diagnosed with the foot injury on May 24. At that point, he was slashing .213/.302/.396, which is nearly identical to his total line for the season (.230/.312/.399). April, when the shortstop was theoretically most healthy, was in fact his worst month. As the season progressed, Correa never managed to get going, grounding into a league-leading 30 double plays as he persistently failed to make authoritative contact. 

In particular, Correa struggled to crush fastballs, posting a -5 Run Value against them after being plus-17 in 2022. And while he made plenty of flashy plays in the field, his defensive metrics were more ordinary than elite, for a second consecutive campaign. It's difficult to parse how much of this can be attributed to aging, versus physical decline, versus randomness, versus the foot injury specifically. I guess we'll find out soon enough. But it's impossible for Correa's tumultuous free-agent journey prior to last season not to loom in one's mind, when it was followed by such poor performance in year one.

THE BOTTOM LINE
As he proved last year, it'll take a lot to force Minnesota's unofficial captain off the field. In the event he does get sidelined, Farmer is the top backup, having started 27 of the 28 games Correa missed last year, and Castro is back as secondary depth. 

In a career-worst year for Correa, the Twins still ranked in the middle of the major-league pack for shortstop production and snapped a 20-year postseason curse. Just think what they can do if he manages to prove that 2023 was, indeed, an outlier.

Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base

View full article

[Ctwink]

April being Correa's "theoretically most healthy month" is of course a misnomer.  Similar to all recent Twins injuries, Correa stated that he had been struggling with the foot issue for awhile - I'm betting he suffered the injury in spring training and decided to see if he could tough it out.  That's not excusing his pedestrian season last year or discounting signs of decline, but saying he should have played better in April is not really fair.

[Fatbat]

C4 is a stud and likely to have his best year in ‘24. Here comes 7fWar and a gold glove. Bench players won’t matter much at SS.

[JD-TWINS]

He’s 29 years old - middle of his Prime. ……if he was 34 & coming off last year’s struggles there may be reason for more concern…,,,,he’ll be back to his career norms or fairly close.

.272 BA - 20 HR - 75 RBI

18 HR & 29 doubles in ‘23 with 65 RBI. Less strikeouts and more contact will get his average up 30-40 points to “normal”. His career averages seem very attainable - with health.

Not sure that if he was diagnosed with a foot problem in late May, why the author thinks he probably should have improved or hit a groove later in the year is a mystery. Lucky he stayed on the field and provided adequate defense & leadership. Watching the double-play groundouts was excruciating but same thing watching Killebrew 50+ years ago. Can’t run, you can’t run!

Depth of Farmer & Castro …………obviously, with Lee at some point is a potential depth piece in ‘24 as well. Position seems to be covered well!

[TopGunn#22]

Prior to C.C. the Twins had a Black Hole at SS for many years.  He had a tough season in 2023 but seems primed for a major bounce-back.  I'm cautiously optimistic that is going to be the case.  And with Farmer, Lewis, Lee and Castro the twins have developed more depth than they've maybe ever had for the SS position.  We're in good hands.

[rv78]

I would be happy with his average yearly production for 162 games, .272BA, 27HR and 98RBI. Unfortunately I doubt he will be that productive considering Rocco will never let him play 162 games even IF he is 100% healthy every day of the season. 

Now with payroll limitations the Twins have their high priced player. They can only afford one and in a couple of years that might be too many. Add in Buxton at $15M, Pablo at $8M this year and $21.7M in 2025, 2026 and 2027 and a bunch of upcoming young players that will get even more expensive as the years roll by and this team won't be signing ANY $200M dollar Free Agents for quite a while. The more concerning question is..... who are the casualties going to be that they cannot afford to keep?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Unfortunately I doubt he will be that productive considering Rocco will never let him play 162 games even IF he is 100% healthy every day of the season. 

🙄

[roger]

Expect we will see Correa at short in about 155 of the Twins games this summer.  At least hope so.

But if there is an injury that puts CC on the IL, then what?  Agree that Farmer is the likely starter if it is a two week trip to the IL.  But what if it is longer?  Would Lee then get called up and start most of their games?  Expect it depends on how Lee is doing at St. Paul?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

When I was in the Army, C-4 was packed in the back of claymore mines. It provided the explosive power to propel the little metal balls toward the enemy. The C-4 needed an electric charge to ignite the C-4. I contend that Carlos Correa's injury- hampered performance of 2023 will be the ignition to charge the explosive power of C4 and the rest of this Twins' team to do what it takes to get to the World Series and to win it.  There is something special about this Twins team. Let the games begin!

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, roger said:

Expect we will see Correa at short in about 155 of the Twins games this summer.  At least hope so.

But if there is an injury that puts CC on the IL, then what?  Agree that Farmer is the likely starter if it is a two week trip to the IL.  But what if it is longer?  Would Lee then get called up and start most of their games?  Expect it depends on how Lee is doing at St. Paul?

If C4 has a long term Il then Lee would get the call. Minor issue, he stays in aaa. It’s great to have the depth that we have!

[jmlease1]

SS is in pretty good shape right now (like the entire infield, really). If there's a negative, there's not necessarily an heir apparently to Correa in the system right now (Lewis is locking in at 3B, maybe he could slide back over; Lee consistently has questions asked; Castro is better as a utility guy; Farmer is here now, but might not be here past this season; Noah Miller was traded...leaving Danny DeAndrade, who hasn't played a game above Low A yet). But with the expectation that Correa can stay at SS for at least the next 3 seasons, there's time to work on that pipeline again.

I know the metrics didn't have Correa as having a particularly good year at SS, and I think that's probably right: the foot injury almost certainly hampered his ability to make a strong first move, slowed him down a little more when foot speed was never a strong point, and even hindered his throwing with stress planting on the foot. But even with that...he still made the plays out there. I expect his numbers to tick up this season if he really is healthy and feeling good like he appears to be. The positioning is still excellent, the arm is elite, and he really does QB the defense for the infield out there. Watch for 2022 Correa to be out there again.

[Doctor Gast]

We are set with Correa, Farmer, Lewis at SS, but if there's an injury to any of those our INF would be hurting especially if it's long term.

[Mike Sixel]

Another position with a great player and options behind him. Exciting!

[PatPfund]

Great piece (as usual!).

I was pretty sure Correa was hurting last spring from something given the folderol about skipping almost all the ST games because he 'gets better benefit from hitting in the cage versus games.' Paired with the team's chronic under/misinformation concerning injuries (seriously, I just hear the Charlie Brown teacher noise now every time the Twins talk malady) that sounded fishy, and in retrospect I'd guess the heel was already hurting (something you aggravate more running than just hitting in the box). 

Hopefully the foot stays cool this season, or the Twins get more proactive with managing it (we didn't really need to wait until September to give the guy a couple weeks off; a couple extra stretches like that in-season probably would have yielded a ton of extra offense).

[ashbury]

Making an article with this title, "Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop", be Caretakers Only, and having it consist of exactly two words, would ensure my renewal of Caretaker status for another year.

[Karbo]

Correa is probably the guy I'm least concerned about. He's a pro's pro.

[Melissa]

The less than stellar defensive statistics cited so often for Correa last year do not correlate well with the eye test. In the dozen or so games I attended at Target Field last season, I noticed Carlos’s frequent if sometimes subtle moves as the pitch was thrown. Some of the defensive statistics rely on distance travelled to reach a batted ball, but don’t reflect a savvy player’s subtle moves well if at all. 

[gman]

If the Twins play as well as projected, I doubt anyone plays over 135 games this year especially their higher priced players. Hopefully they'll be stronger and fresher for the playoffs.