Joe Ryan Has Reached an Early Career Crossroads

[Cody Schoenmann]

Despite early career success, the Twins' 27-year-old starting pitcher ran into significant hurdles last season. Can he make the necessary adjustments to become a reliable frontline starting pitcher in 2024?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

In his recent "Baseball Bits" video titled "The Only Thing That Matters in Baseball," YouTuber Foolish Bailey highlighted how meaningful counts are in dictating the outcome of an at-bat. When starting ahead 1-0 in a count last season, hitters league-wide generated an .826 OPS. In contrast, when falling behind 0-1, hitters saw their production drop exponentially, manufacturing a lackluster .619 OPS. As the video continues, Bailey illustrates how dire counts are to both hitters and pitchers before highlighting which starting pitchers were best at getting ahead in counts in 2023.

Atop the leaderboard, unsurprisingly, were some of the best starting pitchers in MLB: Max Scherzer, Spencer Strider, and George Kirby. Scroll down slightly, and one will find Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan ranked sixth, beginning 56.6% of at-bats with a first-pitch strike. The primary reason Ryan and other pitchers on this list could generate first-pitch strikes over half the time was because they threw their fastballs in the zone early and often. Specifically, Ryan threw a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat 58.4% of the time 

Getting ahead in the count doesn't guarantee success, evidenced by Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon ranking second on the list by beginning 58.8% of at-bats with a first-pitch strike in 2023 despite earning an uninspiring 4.84 ERA and 4.61 FIP over 154 ⅓ innings pitched last season. In the case of Ryan, though, it has been a marker of success for the entirety of his young career. Noted in Bailey's video, Ryan ranks third in MLB in winning plate appearances with the count advantage since 2020, getting hitters out at a 41.4% clip. 

Ryan's low arm angle is the driving force in getting his low-velocity fastball (23rd percentile on Baseball Savant) to make hitters swing and miss early and often in counts. The 27-year-old used his low arm slot to forge a 16.8% swinging strike rate (a 97th percentile outcome last season) while throwing 65% of his pitches high of the batter (92nd percentile) regardless of whether they were located in the zone. Ryan and the Twins' coaching staff know what he does well, and while he has justifiably used this approach to maximize early career success, there is reason to suspect he is nearing a crossroads in his career.

Ryan straining his left groin before starting against the Atlanta Braves played a significant role in his decline in performance from June 27th through August 2nd. Still, a more significant concern follows the right-hander. In 2023, hitters swung at pitches from Ryan more than any other starting pitcher in MLB. The primary cause of this development was that hitters were unafraid of his lackluster secondary pitches, which consisted of an average splitter and a sweeper that often landed far outside the zone. Able to disregard his offspeed pitches, hitters could confidently sit on fastballs high in the zone, knowing he would throw it 57% of the time. Here are Ryan's numbers before and after straining his left groin:

• 4/2 - 6/22: 93 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 2.98 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 9.61 strikeouts per nine (K/9), 1.44 walks per nine (BB/9), 71.2 left on base percentage (LOB%), 6.7 home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB)
• 8/26 - 9/29: 35 2/3 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 11.36 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 75.3 LOB%, 16.3% HR/FB

Judging Ryan's performance when he was injured is unfair. It would provide an inaccurate representation of the pitcher he is, but there are grounds to be concerned about his drop in performance before and after his injured list stint. Beyond his counting statistics (ERA and FIP) jumping two-fold, the most concerning development in the former Tampa Bay Rays' prospects' performance from August 26th through September 29th is the egregious spike in his home run-to-fly ball ratio. In seven games started in that timeframe, Ryan gave up a home run in five of them, including three at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies in his final start of the season. 

Assuming Ryan has fully recovered from the left groin strain that was the leading cause in pitfalling to an 8.63 ERA, 8.08 FIP, and 32.1% home run to fly ball rate from June 27th through August 2nd, there is no reason to suspect he will perform that poorly. Ryan is a good pitcher who deserves to be in an MLB rotation, and Twins decision-makers agree. This past Saturday, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters at Fort Myers that "Joe showed us pretty much everything last year. The highs were very high, and the lows were what they are are, but Joe's proven himself as a good Major League starting pitcher."

The team feels good about handing Ryan the ball every fifth day, but Baldelli acknowledged he needs to make adjustments, stating, "he knows that he can't go out there every start, or have a run of starts, where he's just relying on his fastball. He's gonna have to use those other pitches, and those pitches are good. They have real value in getting hitters out; it's learning how to use them and really the consistency." Baldelli further emphasized Ryan's consistency: "So, I think the consistency of his pitches needs to get better, and when he does that, he can go from good to great if he's able to do that." 

As Baldelli noted, the most significant adjustment Ryan needs to make to go from good to great is improving his offspeed pitches and becoming less reliant on his fastball. The first step Ryan could take in achieving this milestone is fine-tuning his adequate splitter.

In 2023, Ryan got hitters to whiff on his splitter 21.8% of the time, which is fine, but the results showed his splitter profiles better as a third pitch instead of a main complement to his elite fastball. Last season, Ryan tried using a sweeper and slider as third pitches in his repertoire, but neither yielded good results as they were often too far out of the zone for hitters to chase. Ryan could be incentivized to fine-tune his sweeper in an attempt to use it again next season. Still, a shift to a slower, more compact gyro slider could benefit his velocity-deficient profile that relies on deception and a unique arm slot.

Regardless, Ryan showing he has fine-tuned his splitter and added another viable secondary pitch that could directly complement his elite fastball would be the best outcome for the California native heading into 2024. Ryan has reached a crossroads in his young career. This upcoming season will play a significant role in deciding whether he is a frontline starting pitcher who can co-exist alongside Pablo López and Bailey Ober or if he is merely a steady back-of-the-rotation arm with hindrances that block him from becoming the actualized pitcher fans and pundits thought he could be early in his career.

---

What is your confidence level in Joe Ryan heading into the 2024 season? Will he solidify himself as a frontline starter or further regress to the back of the rotation? Sound off in the comments!

View full article

[Patzky]

Actually it's my fault. After I purchased the Grateful Dead Ryan T he got hurt -imploded.

The pitching coaches have been master tinkerers

 

 Assuming they have the same observations a fix will be forthcoming. How effective..

[Twinsgypsy]

I believe that Joe Ryan has the ability to take the next step to become a great pitcher.  However, having the ability and doing are different.  Him being reliant on his faster over the last few years shows that he could be stubborn or resistant to change from a lack of maturity.  Time will tell if he can take the next step to get better and become a front line starter.

[saviking]

After Ryan pitched the best game of his career, the complete game shutout, he hurt his groin .. Then he tried to pitch through it, which was a mistake. I wonder if the extra innings and pitches in that game contributed to the groin injury.

Anyway, I'm expecting the old Ryan coming out of the shoot this year ..

[Karbo]

He's young and learning. Now its time for the coaches to coach him up.

[wornsmooth]

34 minutes ago, saviking said:

After Ryan pitched the best game of his career, the complete game shutout, he hurt his groin .. Then he tried to pitch through it, which was a mistake. I wonder if the extra innings and pitches in that game contributed to the groin injury.

Anyway, I'm expecting the old Ryan coming out of the shoot this year ..

I expect the same. Unless the latter part of rhe season gotinto his head.

To me, it was obvious that he was hurt. He never completely recovered from the groin injury. 

When healthy he is aggressive and takes it to the batters. He is a throwback to pitchers of yesterday.

 

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

50 minutes ago, saviking said:

After Ryan pitched the best game of his career, the complete game shutout, he hurt his groin .. Then he tried to pitch through it, which was a mistake. I wonder if the extra innings and pitches in that game contributed to the groin injury.

Anyway, I'm expecting the old Ryan coming out of the shoot this year ..

Maybe it had to do with that game, but that doesn't explain the 4 games prior to that were he had an ERA over 6. I like Ryan but I don't think 27/28 year old pitchers change all that much without adding a new really good pitch. I think he is who he is a pitcher that pretty consistently pitches into (and though) the 6 inning with some games of brilliance and some clunkers, will end the season with a record above .500 and an ERA between 3.5 - 4.

[Riverbrian]

61 Starts with the Twins. I have only missed a couple of them. 

There are two things that those 61 starts have taught me. 

1. I have no idea what makes his fastball special but it appears to be special. 

2. There is no way you can watch his 61 starts and not come away with some confidence in his ability. 

He's a good pitcher who had a bad stretch last year. Injury caused the bad stretch? I don't know but it was a bad stretch. His ERA was 2.98 before the bad stretch. 

Before the bad stretch - ERA's On June 22nd last year

Gray - 2,56

Ober - 2.83

Ryan - 2.98

Lopez - 4.40 

Varland - 5.30

If it wasn't for the bad stretch... we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Pablo Lopez wouldn't have pitched great post all-star break and so superbly in the playoffs... we might be having a similar Pablo Lopez conversation instead of him making top ten lists. 

Recency bias is an amazing thing. Baseball has ups and downs, ebbs and flows. 

The light goes up and down... don't you notice how the wheel goes round. Joe Ryan has earned that MLB Badge for his sleeve.  

[Trov]

If he can develop some off-speed pitches he will be just fine.  That was the question about him all along coming up if he would develop beyond his fastball.  The hope is that he worked on a secondary pitch this off-season after seeing the clear need.  Some may say why not do that before, part of it is that he had such success with the fastball and not having good off-speed it may have been hard for him to see the need.  

From what I saw last year was his fastball was mainly up and his off-speed was mainly down and out of the zone.  It was not hard for hitters to see pitch up, know it is fastball, anything else stay off.  If he can start getting the fastball down some and learn to get off-speed over for strikes to keep guys honest will go a long way. You buzz a guy for strike 3 at the knees with a fastball he will think about that for a long time and start chasing out of the zone thinking that might be the one time you try to buzz him again. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Using the term “crossroads” might be a little dramatic for Joe Ryan’s situation.  He’s been a good pitcher for the Twins for the past couple of seasons, with a couple of hiccups thrown in that have affected his numbers and effectiveness.  Certainly it would be great if he would dramatically transform himself into a Pablo Lopez (results) clone, but even if he doesn’t, he’s plenty valuable and looks to be a solid mid-rotation guy.  Back a few years ago, when we got him in trade, he seemed like an amazing talent on our starting staff — because we really didn’t have much in that department.  However, after being spoiled on the starting pitcher front last season, we are now letting the nearly perfect (or as close as we are likely to get) get in the way of the very good.  I’m an optimist with regard to Joe Ryan continuing to improve, but he doesn’t really need to change to maintain being a valuable MLB pitcher.  

[Mark G]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

61 Starts with the Twins. I have only missed a couple of them. 

There are two things that those 61 starts have taught me. 

1. I have no idea what makes his fastball special but it appears to be special. 

2. There is no way you can watch his 61 starts and not come away with some confidence in his ability. 

He's a good pitcher who had a bad stretch last year. Injury caused the bad stretch? I don't know but it was a bad stretch. His ERA was 2.98 before the bad stretch. 

Before the bad stretch - ERA's On June 22nd last year

Gray - 2,56

Ober - 2.83

Ryan - 2.98

Lopez - 4.40 

Varland - 5.30

If it wasn't for the bad stretch... we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Pablo Lopez wouldn't have pitched great post all-star break and so superbly in the playoffs... we might be having a similar Pablo Lopez conversation instead of him making top ten lists. 

Recency bias is an amazing thing. Baseball has ups and downs, ebbs and flows. 

The light goes up and down... don't you notice how the wheel goes round. Joe Ryan has earned that MLB Badge for his sleeve.  

Not to argue with the stats you present, they are compelling, but I have seen quiet a few of his starts in the last two years as well (although not 50+) and I have a particular memory of them as a whole.  He had quite a few starts the last two years combined against Detroit and KC, and owned both teams.  His stats against those two teams were to the point of awesome.  Against the teams that are able to lay off his high fast ball, which Detroit and KC were not able to, he was not as awesome, making his overall stats what they were.  Is it just possible this is more the reason for two years worth of stats than one particular shorter term injury?  

JR is a very worthy 2/3 starter on a pretty good pitching staff; wouldn't want to lose him right now.  But I do think he is what he is, and he will always do well against teams who can't lay off the high fastball and not as well against teams that make him bring his pitches down.  

Just one person's thought.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He is not at a crossroads unless the injury wasn't his issue.  He has been an above average pitcher for us and I expect him to continue to be. He becomes a much better pitcher if he can develop more of the offspeed pitches, but so far, they just haven't developed,  even with a team and coaching staff that emphasizes them.  I don't anticipate major changes unless last season scared him a bit. I figure much of the same.  Really good pitching followed by some stinkers. 

[jimbo92107]

Joe Ryan is a quiet, determined young man. Everybody knew he needed better secondary pitches, and Ryan got to work with DriveLine to develop a better changeup, which is exactly what he needed. Does he still need a third pitch? He's got a sweeper, but apparently it moves too much, allowing hitters to recognize and lay off it. However, if Ryan can throw that pitch for strikes...

Ah, spring!

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Not to argue with the stats you present, they are compelling, but I have seen quiet a few of his starts in the last two years as well (although not 50+) and I have a particular memory of them as a whole.  He had quite a few starts the last two years combined against Detroit and KC, and owned both teams.  His stats against those two teams were to the point of awesome.  Against the teams that are able to lay off his high fast ball, which Detroit and KC were not able to, he was not as awesome, making his overall stats what they were.  Is it just possible this is more the reason for two years worth of stats than one particular shorter term injury?  

JR is a very worthy 2/3 starter on a pretty good pitching staff; wouldn't want to lose him right now.  But I do think he is what he is, and he will always do well against teams who can't lay off the high fastball and not as well against teams that make him bring his pitches down.  

Just one person's thought.  

Good post and you may be absolutely correct but my guess is that what you are describing is true of almost any pitcher.

Good pitchers don't pitch in the zone... they pitch out of the zone and try to get batters to swing at crap.

If hitters can lay off the pitches that the pitcher wants the batter to swing at... lay off that out pitch that a pitcher possesses... that best pitch in the repertoire. If hitters can do that... they become hittable. 

The good pitchers are able to get batters to swing at crap more often. I'd put Joe Ryan in that good pitcher group.   

 

[RpR]

43 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

61 Starts with the Twins. I have only missed a couple of them. 

There are two things that those 61 starts have taught me. 

1. I have no idea what makes his fastball special but it appears to be special. 

2. There is no way you can watch his 61 starts and not come away with some confidence in his ability. 

He's a good pitcher who had a bad stretch last year. Injury caused the bad stretch? I don't know but it was a bad stretch. His ERA was 2.98 before the bad stretch. 

Before the bad stretch - ERA's On June 22nd last year

Gray - 2,56

Ober - 2.83

Ryan - 2.98

Lopez - 4.40 

Varland - 5.30

If it wasn't for the bad stretch... we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Pablo Lopez wouldn't have pitched great post all-star break and so superbly in the playoffs... we might be having a similar Pablo Lopez conversation instead of him making top ten lists. 

Recency bias is an amazing thing. Baseball has ups and downs, ebbs and flows. 

The light goes up and down... don't you notice how the wheel goes round. Joe Ryan has earned that MLB Badge for his sleeve.  

Could have, would have, should have -- but he did fall apart.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maybe it had to do with that game, but that doesn't explain the 4 games prior to that were he had an ERA over 6. I like Ryan but I don't think 27/28 year old pitchers change all that much without adding a new really good pitch. I think he is who he is a pitcher that pretty consistently pitches into (and though) the 6 inning with some games of brilliance and some clunkers, will end the season with a record above .500 and an ERA between 3.5 - 4.

Pablo sure changed a bunch……,we didn’t trade for a front running Cy Young pitcher last winter. Chins up!

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pablo sure changed a bunch……,we didn’t trade for a front running Cy Young pitcher last winter. Chins up!

What defines a bunch? 14 innings in the same amount of starts, a drop of .09 ERA, .3 increase in hits per 9, a decline of .5 in walks per 9, WAR increase of .4 or an increase of 2.2 K's per 9.

I would say K's per 9 was a bunch, and maybe that was the reason for 14 more innings, but changed a bunch?

[tony&rodney]

Ryan isn't the first guy to try and pitch through an injury because he was rolling along with only minor blips. Injuries often change technique in ways that expose the player. Ryan was exposed. We can say the same thing about Buxton, although that went on for the entire season. Without legs, Byron changed his swing.

Ryan is fine. Another year of experience and more knowledge of hitters make him more conscious of where he needs to focus. Ryan doesn't exactly blow hitters away. He uses the aggressive nature of hitters against them. A full year of 180+ innings and 4.00 ERA can be expected. Ryan will be good this year.

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, RpR said:

Could have, would have, should have -- but he did fall apart.

Well Sir

Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA in 2016. 

Sonny Gray had a 4.90 ERA in 2018. 

Justin Verlander had a 4.84 in 2008 and 4.54 in 2014. 

Do you think you won't find 7 game stretches of sub standard pitching during the career of any well respected major league starter?  

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What defines a bunch? 14 innings in the same amount of starts, a drop of .09 ERA, .3 increase in hits per 9, a decline of .5 in walks per 9, WAR increase of .4 or an increase of 2.2 K's per 9.

I would say K's per 9 was a bunch, and maybe that was the reason for 14 more innings, but changed a bunch?

Addition of SWEEPER - much better physical conditioning regimen - Elevated average velocity by 1.5MPH - SWEEPER.

Dominant force in 2 playoff starts…… .71 ERA.

3rd in Baseball in strikeouts.

Took ERA from 4.40 late June to 3.66 at end of regular season.

If you don’t think Lopez was a better pitcher in September of ‘23 v. September of ‘22 not sure what to say.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Well Sir

Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA in 2016. 

Sonny Gray had a 4.90 ERA in 2018. 

Justin Verlander had a 4.84 in 2008 and 4.54 in 2014. 

Do you think you won't find 7 game stretches of sub standard pitching during the career of any well respected major league starter?  

No one said one could not, and Ryan did in a big way.

This year can/could  be bigger for him than most Twins pitchers.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maybe it had to do with that game, but that doesn't explain the 4 games prior to that were he had an ERA over 6. I like Ryan but I don't think 27/28 year old pitchers change all that much without adding a new really good pitch. I think he is who he is a pitcher that pretty consistently pitches into (and though) the 6 inning with some games of brilliance and some clunkers, will end the season with a record above .500 and an ERA between 3.5 - 4.

Pablo Lopez had a stretch of 4 games with a 6.95 ERA from 5/15 - 6/1 last year.

Sonny Gray from 7/8 - 7/28 had a 6.08 ERA. 

Gerrit Cole had multiple 4-game stretches of 5+ ERA, Blake Snell's first 4 games had a 6 ERA. 

That's just baseball. Joe Ryan had the 4-game stretch of 6.08 ERA you're referencing and then threw a shutout.

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Good post and you may be absolutely correct but my guess is that what you are describing is true of almost any pitcher.

Good pitchers don't pitch in the zone... they pitch out of the zone and try to get batters to swing at crap.

If hitters can lay off the pitches that the pitcher wants the batter to swing at... lay off that out pitch that a pitcher possesses... that best pitch in the repertoire. If hitters can do that... they become hittable. 

The good pitchers are able to get batters to swing at crap more often. I'd put Joe Ryan in that good pitcher group.   

 

Point well taken.  👌

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Addition of SWEEPER - much better physical conditioning regimen - Elevated average velocity by 1.5MPH - SWEEPER.

Dominant force in 2 playoff starts…… .71 ERA.

3rd in Baseball in strikeouts.

Took ERA from 4.40 late June to 3.66 at end of regular season.

If you don’t think Lopez was a better pitcher in September of ‘23 v. September of ‘22 not sure what to say.

Sorry, I didn't know when you typed "Pablo sure changed a bunch" you weren't talking about the results for the season.

His last 4 starts of September with Miaim he pitched 25.66 innings with an ERA of 2.1

His last 4 starts of September with Min he pitched 23.33 innings with an ERA of 4.24

I like Pablo and I liked the trade for Pablo, but this idea that somehow what he did last year was something amazingly different than what he did in 22 is just not correct. Do I think Pablo will even be better this year, I do, I love that he seemed to figure out this starting pitching thing at age 26, improved again at age 27 and should be moving into his prime years 28-31 with some momentum.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Pablo Lopez had a stretch of 4 games with a 6.95 ERA from 5/15 - 6/1 last year.

Sonny Gray from 7/8 - 7/28 had a 6.08 ERA. 

Gerrit Cole had multiple 4-game stretches of 5+ ERA, Blake Snell's first 4 games had a 6 ERA. 

That's just baseball. Joe Ryan had the 4-game stretch of 6.08 ERA you're referencing and then threw a shutout.

I was replying to a comment that said his complete game shutout may have caused the not so great numbers after and my point was that doesn't explain the 4 previous games. Pitchers have bad stretches, it just seems weird to blame one on one thing and another on just normal baseball. 

[TCSquad]

It's all part of the Joe Ryan Experience™.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

First off, I think it's important to remember that both the splitter and the sweeper were new pitches for Joe Ryan in 2023. In 2021/2022 he threw a slider/changeup/curveball and none of those were good pitches. 

Joe Ryan's injury not only affected his ERA/results on the field, I think it clearly affected him even after his IL stint.

Here are some numbers on his pitches pre-injury and post-recovery. 

 

There is a pretty clear break in results for all 3 pitches, and while I'm fairly confident I understand how the 4-seamer lost effectivity and the sweeper was much improved, I'm not particularly sure I understand why the splitter got so much worse. Worth noting he got very, very good results on that pitch before his groin injury.

Across the board his release point was lower by around 3-4 inches and closer to 3B by 1-2 inches with 2 inches more extension. I'd hazard a guess that release point change caused a dip in the spin efficiency of his fastball, as it dropped 1.2 more inches (less rise) and lost nearly an inch of run.

The sweeper gained over 2 inches of sweep and drop and by location it looks like he did a better job keeping it at the edge of the strikezone and not throwing as many in the dirt - not particularly surprising that he gained more command over a particularly tricky pitch to throw.

Now the splitter. Generally with offspeed pitches if you can throw them faster and get more movement it should be much more effective. Maybe that's not the case for splitters, looking at the best splitters it seems like they are thrown hard (87+ mph) and/or only have 1 great plane of movement - Gausman has more run and Neris/Maeda have more drop. 

 

Anyway, this got much longer than I intended but I think the pitches are there for Joe. It could just be a matter of dialing in both of the new pitches he added to his arsenal last year. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I was replying to a comment that said his complete game shutout may have caused the not so great numbers after and my point was that doesn't explain the 4 previous games. Pitchers have bad stretches, it just seems weird to blame one on one thing and another on just normal baseball. 

They were just speculating if going 9 innings contributed to the groin injury. He was clearly worse in that 7 game stretch and we know for a fact that he was hiding an injury, so it's very easy to conclude that stretch of 8.63 ERA/8.08 FIP pitching was mostly injury related and the 4-game stretch before the shutout is just baseball.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

They were just speculating if going 9 innings contributed to the groin injury. He was clearly worse in that 7 game stretch and we know for a fact that he was hiding an injury, so it's very easy to conclude that stretch of 8.63 ERA/8.08 FIP pitching was mostly injury related and the 4-game stretch before the shutout is just baseball.

How about this in 2022 on June 14th his ERA was 2.81 and made its way up to 4.05 (9/7) before ending at 3.55.

On June 10th 2023 his ERA was 2.98, and made its way up to 4.21(9/6) before ending up at 4.51.

So the big difference between 22 and 23 was mostly how he ended the season in Sept and the injury could have played a role?

[awmonahan]

He'll be fine. He just made his big trip to Driveline to work on the sweeper last winter. It may take a bit ti get it under control, but effort and work don't seem to be the issue. Maybe he always struggles to master the secondary stuff, but the fastball plays and he's willing to work and tweak the approach.