W total predictions as of 2/5/24

[chpettit19]

Not looking for guesses on other moves they'll make moving forward and what they may do to the win total, but we've finally had some moves made and the reactions seem to be pretty varied. Wanted to get a feel for where people are at on this team as it stands today. So if opening day were tomorrow and we were running out the team as it stands at 2 PM central on 2/5/2024, how many wins do you all think the Twins will earn in 2024?

[Doctor Gast]

Right now we have an inferior rotation, about the same BP, inferior INF, with a healthy Buxton (kinda) our OF &  offense are better so my guess is about the same as this year's record. If Buxton's time in CF is short-lived, then I'd guess much less. 

[stringer bell]

I picked 89 wins last year and came up a bit over. I think the same number is optimistic, but heck, I see green grass outside during the first week of February! Since a year ago, there are probably four new starters in the everyday lineup and the Twins now have a twenty-something ace to lead their rotation. Injuries will happen, unexpected results, both positive and negative are a near certainty. Although there are plenty of question marks, I'll guess high again on win total.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'll put a number to my thinking - 88 wins. Better bullpen, lesser rotation, lineup about even. Lineup balances losing Polanco and the possible dreaded "sophomore slump" from Lewis, Julien, and Wallner, plus last year being possible career years for Kepler, Castro, and Jeffers on the negative side with probable better years from Correa and Buxton, the addition of Santana, more ABS for Lewis, Julien, and Wallner if they don't slump, and better health and production from Kirilloff, Gordon, and Miranda on the positive side. Add in improvements in Detroit, KC, and even Cleveland, and I see us right about where we were last year. I added 1 win because I'm an optimist by nature. 

[gman]

More steady lineup, that is consistent hitting all year rather than just last 2 months. Bullpen has more depth which hopefully means fewer injuries to top arms. The rotation is down one arm from last year in Gray. Because of lack of hitting they lost more than they won in his starts so conceivably they could come out ahead in the win column during his replacements starts.

Lastly keep fingers crossed for better health as a team.

[FilthyMogwai]

Honestly, I could see this team winning anywhere from 70 to 90 games. There are so many question marks. Rotation, Buxton health, improvement or lack thereof of young players, bullpen, depth, etc. 

It's almost impossible for me to talk myself into a smaller range with them.

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Honestly, I could see this team winning anywhere from 70 to 90 games. There are so many question marks. Rotation, Buxton health, improvement or lack thereof of young players, bullpen, depth, etc. 

It's almost impossible for me to talk myself into a smaller range with them.

I said the exact same thing last year.  Maybe it was 72-92 if I recall.  This year I think the floor is higher.  I think the range is 80-90.

[gunnarthor]

I like the offense, don't like the pitching staff. Anywhere between 75-85 wins seems reasonable. 

[FilthyMogwai]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I said the exact same thing last year.  Maybe it was 72-92 if I recall.  This year I think the floor is higher.  I think the range is 80-90.

Yeah that's fair. I think I chose 74 to 78  because I just think too much needs to go right in order to win again. And thart includes Correa's health and the chances Pablo can replicate what he did last year.

Definitely hoping for more, though. My optimism has blinded me too often in the past.

[tony&rodney]

Last year I picked the Twins to win the AL Central with 87 wins and begged for a +/- of 5 wins either way.

Entering this offseason, I felt the Twins had quite a bit of room and some good options for improving the team. It is now February 5. I will say the Twins win the AL Central with 85 wins with a +/- of 5 wins either way.

[wabene]

46 minutes ago, gman said:

More steady lineup, that is consistent hitting all year rather than just last 2 months. Bullpen has more depth which hopefully means fewer injuries to top arms. The rotation is down one arm from last year in Gray. Because of lack of hitting they lost more than they won in his starts so conceivably they could come out ahead in the win column during his replacements starts.

Lastly keep fingers crossed for better health as a team.

This is where I'm at. Pretty much on par with last year. So I voted 84-88 and I'm surprised so many were more optimistic than me. The division is theirs for the taking, now if they added a quality starter they would be true contenders. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

90 wins.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Just now, Joe A. Preusser said:

90 wins.

If they make the trade for a nice SP I'm hoping for that moves to 95.

[Mike Sixel]

80-90 is my range right now. I like the floor a lot, not so much the ceiling. 

[USAFChief]

I'll say 86.

I agree with Mike. I like the floor more than the ceiling. 

[tony&rodney]

I'll add that i like the floor too. A big concern is injuries or ineffectiveness to the starting top five (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack). The Twins are vulnerable.

[Vanimal46]

The Twins got to 87 wins last year due to unprecedented rookie contributions from Lewis, Wallner, and Julien. At least one of them will have a sophomore slump. It’s bound to happen. 

I like the pitching staff. Another top of the rotation guy would do wonders for this season. I think the offense has a ton of variance, and as of today, don’t have confidence they will be better than last year. And they weren’t a good enough offense last year either. 

Just like last year, first team to 82 wins is the AL Central champ. 

[wabene]

Just noticed that I am one of 32 who have voted. That must make me some kind of dork. A unique dork or is it niche dork? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Just noticed that I am one of 32 who have voted. That must make me some kind of dork. A unique dork or is it niche dork? 

Yes

[Parfigliano]

89-73

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think they will win about 90 games, give or take.  I like them to be a little bit better than last year with the hope that they find another starter (within or from the outside) that can be strong in the playoffs.  I do think the bullpen is potentially a little bit better than last year, so that should help also.

 

[Major League Ready]

I would feel a lot more confident if I knew what they would get out of Correa and Buxton.  That got very little out of the two guys that could/should carry this team.   It really hurts this team if we don't get far more out of our 33m man.  Buxton produced virtually nothing.  This is a different team if Buxton plays to his ability.   Those two players are capable of 8-10 more WAR than they produced last year.  They are the key to reaching the ceiling.  The other position player that we need more from is Kirilloff.

[jimmyc]

They reached last year's win count with very little offense from either Buxton or Correa and less than Correa's average defense.  They had the second best pitcher in the league but lost more than half of his starts.  They COULD easily beat last year's total.

[sweetmusicviola16]

84 wins for the Twins. Detroit or Cleveland will win 82.  The other one will come in with 79.  I'd like to see them do something that widens the gap. Not holding my breath. It will be a tight Central.

[Gamblerssoftball]

The re-emergence of Buxton and Correa is the key to the ceiling. The pitching staff controls the floor. I think the staff right now keeps the floor just above .500. The bullpen is slightly better than last year. The starting staff, slightly worse.

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

The re-emergence of Buxton and Correa is the key to the ceiling. The pitching staff controls the floor. I think the staff right now keeps the floor just above .500. The bullpen is slightly better than last year. The starting staff, slightly worse.

Agreed. And Wallner and Julien up all year. There is ceiling, but it comes with risk. 

[Gamblerssoftball]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. And Wallner and Julien up all year. There is ceiling, but it comes with risk. 

Buxton and Correa healthy and productive will raise everyone's ceiling. Even the pitching staff, if your playing with a lead. I really like our chances if only this comes true 👍 

[Twins33]

83. I like the rotation significantly less than last year. I don’t want Varland or Desclafani in the rotation. If they add another Lopez/Gray type then I will think upper 80s

I like the offense, but still think they need CF insurance

 

[Vanimal46]

On 2/6/2024 at 4:34 PM, Major League Ready said:

I would feel a lot more confident if I knew what they would get out of Correa and Buxton.  That got very little out of the two guys that could/should carry this team.   It really hurts this team if we don't get far more out of our 33m man.  Buxton produced virtually nothing.  This is a different team if Buxton plays to his ability.   Those two players are capable of 8-10 more WAR than they produced last year.  They are the key to reaching the ceiling.  The other position player that we need more from is Kirilloff.

Couldn’t agree more. For the record I think Correa has a big bounce back year with an .850+ OPS. I’ve been burned too many times by Buxton. 80 games in CF will feel like a win after the shenanigans last year.