The Table Setter, Feb. 5, 2024: A Near Finished Product

[Ted Schwerzler]

With less than two weeks until Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers for spring training, the organization has all but put a bow on the offseason. Whether it is enough remains to be seen.

Image courtesy of © Gary Vasquez - USA Today Sports

When the Minnesota Twins turned the page on the 2023 season, there were a few key roster areas that needed to be addressed for the season ahead. For the most part, Derek Falvey and the front office have targeted those spots, but to what extent an impact is made remains to be seen.

Carlos Santana’s one-year deal worth $5.25 million brings some additional thump to the lineup as a whole, and he provides insurance for first base alongside Alex Kirilloff. He isn’t an upper-echelon signing in the mold of Rhys Hoskins or Cody Bellinger, however, and it never appeared that the Twins would dabble in that market.

Minnesota did dip back into the pool of available talent on Sunday night when they agreed to a deal with former Toronto Blue Jays reliever Jay Jackson. He has bounced around plenty since debuting with the Padres back in 2015, but across a 29 2/3-inning sample last year, he put up an impressive 2.12 ERA. The 4.20 FIP suggests there are some smoke and mirrors at play, but the strikeout-to-walk ratio works, and he doesn't allow many hits. How Jackson fits into the makeup of the bullpen remains to be seen, but he was signed to a major-league deal for around $1 million.

Free agency was never going to be the primary mode of roster upgrades this winter. They swung a trade including Jorge Polanco, and they came to a small pact with Josh Staumont. This was an offseason where the team would pick its spots and largely turn over playing time to emerging youth.

With few holes left to fill and little money left to spend, this roster appears to be almost a finished product. A right-handed outfielder still makes some sense, and there is reason to believe a Michael A. Taylor reunion tour could be coming. The hope is that Byron Buxton is ready to take off the training wheels again, though, and that would be more of an insurance policy than the first time around.

Jackson and Santana each still need to become official transactions, which will beget some further roster churn, because the 40-man roster is full as it is. Beyond that, it's hard to say for sure that more is coming, even though this still feels like something shy of an elite team in the American League.

Regardless, this is a team that Rocco Baldelli should feel confident he can manage to a division title, and the group has already shown they can hang in October. Although the games don’t count down in Florida, it will be necessary to start putting the right foot forward with a desire to build on that foundation once the season gets underway.

Little took place around the league over the weekend, but the Chicago White Sox shuffled some pieces around. Reliever Gregory Santos was shipped to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa (a former Twins prospect), outfielder Zach DeLoach, and a competitive balance pick. They acquired Dominic Fletcher from Arizona for pitcher Cristian Mena. Signing veteran outfielder Kevin Pillar as well, they added a significant amount of depth to a position group that was sorely lacking it.

Elsewhere, reliever Phil Maton agreed to a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, and former San Diego Padres starter Dinelson Lamet is headed to spring training with the Dodgers on a minor league deal. This is Movement Week, though. The trucks are on the roll. Teams and free agents alike are pushing for resolutions on lingering questions, so we're abo0ut to see some.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm curious why you assume the offseason is done?

[Karbo]

So far this feels like an empty off season to me. I don't think they have improved over last year much if any. I'm kind of disappointed they filled some spots with older players, possibly even on a downward trend. I wanted to see another quality starter added, and they got Desclafini instead. I was hoping they would take a long look at a few kids from the minors, but instead filled the roster with journeymen type players that just don't move the needle that much for me. I have been a Twins fan since they 1st moved here, no matter where my company sent me around the country, and they will continue to be "my team" as long as I live, so I will be pulling for all these guys. I truly hope I look back on this in October and say " boy was I a dope".

[Dman]

Jay Jackson looks like Matt Wisler version 2.  I guess this is the Twins mea culpa on giving up on Wisler back in the day.  His fastball is the weak link but slider appears to get the job done.  I guess I don't understand why the Jays didn't try to keep him?  Some kind of bad blood there?  At any rate for that price given his recent results it looks like a good pickup.

With Jackson and Santana likely taking Thompson and Duarte off the 40 man it looks like the low hanging 40 man fruit will be gone.  I still think they sign a right handed bat for the outfield and maybe another starter in the Odorizzi range.  If you are Balazovich or Gordon you have to wonder if you are coming off the 40 or traded.

At 6M is Farmer safe from being traded?  They might want that money for a right handed outfield bat using Castro and eventually Lee to fill infield spots.  Just wondering what the Twins might do.  Maybe with the TV contract a done deal they have the money to keep him and add.  Hard to say but this roster could be real interesting all the way through spring training.

[Nashvilletwin]

28 minutes ago, Karbo said:

So far this feels like an empty off season to me. I don't think they have improved over last year much if any. I'm kind of disappointed they filled some spots with older players, possibly even on a downward trend. I wanted to see another quality starter added, and they got Desclafini instead. I was hoping they would take a long look at a few kids from the minors, but instead filled the roster with journeymen type players that just don't move the needle that much for me. I have been a Twins fan since they 1st moved here, no matter where my company sent me around the country, and they will continue to be "my team" as long as I live, so I will be pulling for all these guys. I truly hope I look back on this in October and say " boy was I a dope

 

Other than losing Gray, this lineup is substantially superior to what we began with in 2023.  And way more fun to watch. And if Ober, Varland, and Paddack progress as we think they can, the starting staff will be improved overall even with DeSclafani.

Most importantly, we have not traded away our controllable, cheap young talent - whether in the bigs already or on the way. We should be favored to win the division in ‘24 with an even brighter future ahead for several years. 

[Doctor Gast]

43 minutes ago, Karbo said:

So far this feels like an empty off season to me. I don't think they have improved over last year much if any. I'm kind of disappointed they filled some spots with older players, possibly even on a downward trend. I wanted to see another quality starter added, and they got Desclafini instead. I was hoping they would take a long look at a few kids from the minors, but instead filled the roster with journeymen type players that just don't move the needle that much for me. I have been a Twins fan since they 1st moved here, no matter where my company sent me around the country, and they will continue to be "my team" as long as I live, so I will be pulling for all these guys. I truly hope I look back on this in October and say " boy was I a dope".

I agree with you, buddy. But I'm not as hopeful. I still believe they should win the division but this offseason has given more credence to those who picked DET to win it. The postseason will be short.

[Gamblerssoftball]

54 minutes ago, Dman said:

Jay Jackson looks like Matt Wisler version 2.  I guess this is the Twins mea culpa on giving up on Wisler back in the day.  His fastball is the weak link but slider appears to get the job done.  I guess I don't understand why the Jays didn't try to keep him?  Some kind of bad blood there?  At any rate for that price given his recent results it looks like a good pickup.

With Jackson and Santana likely taking Thompson and Duarte off the 40 man it looks like the low hanging 40 man fruit will be gone.  I still think they sign a right handed bat for the outfield and maybe another starter in the Odorizzi range.  If you are Balazovich or Gordon you have to wonder if you are coming off the 40 or traded.

At 6M is Farmer safe from being traded?  They might want that money for a right handed outfield bat using Castro and eventually Lee to fill infield spots.  Just wondering what the Twins might do.  Maybe with the TV contract a done deal they have the money to keep him and add.  Hard to say but this roster could be real interesting all the way through spring training.

I'm a big fan of Farmer,so I hope he stays. The way he came back from a fastball to the jaw tells me he's a gamer. He is very solid in backing up all the infield positions and he's great in the  clubhouse, I understand. That kind of versatility isn't as easy to find as some may think. In other words, I think he's worth more to the Twins than any other team. Similar to how they view Kepler, probably.

[Karbo]

47 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

Other than losing Gray, this lineup is substantially superior to what we began with in 2023.  And way more fun to watch. And if Ober, Varland, and Paddack progress as we think they can, the starting staff will be improved overall even with DeSclafani.

Most importantly, we have not traded away our controllable, cheap young talent - whether in the bigs already or on the way. We should be favored to win the division in ‘24 with an even brighter future ahead for several years. 

I agree that they should still be favored to win the division, but do you really see anywhere they upgraded from last fall?

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree that they should still be favored to win the division, but do you really see anywhere they upgraded from last fall?

They upgrade in CF and SS substantially if those two guys produce equivalent to their contracts. 1st base has been upgraded over gallo ‘23.  Remember ‘23 opened up with big questions at SP. at this point we may not beat ‘23 but we have more viable options to start with. Our bullpen has been upgraded. Hands down. Much better. 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

At 6M is Farmer safe from being traded?  They might want that money for a right handed outfield bat using Castro and eventually Lee to fill infield spots.  Just wondering what the Twins might do.  Maybe with the TV contract a done deal they have the money to keep him and add.  Hard to say but this roster could be real interesting all the way through spring training.

Farmer appears to be a good guy and he's a capable utility infielder, but for over $6M, he is a luxury. The most important thing for a utility infielder is to be a capable shortstop. At his age (34 in August) Farmer doesn't have nearly average range for a shortstop. The Twins have three other options if Correa would go down short term or long term. Lee would replace CC4 in the event of a disabling injury, while both Willi Castro and Royce Lewis could fill in if Carlos is out for a few games. 

This is no rap on Farmer, but I don't know of a single team that would consider acquiring him to be a regular infielder at this point. 

[Parfigliano]

Bullpen upgraded.  Offense upgraded due to (FSM make it so) full year of production from healthy Correa, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Kirilloff coupled with no Gallo and Jeffers being what he showed last year.  Also have Miranda, Martin, and Lee waiting in  MiLB.

Starting pitching will regress  and hugely dependent on how good Paddack is and progress by Ryan, Ober, Varland maybe even SWR.

True they didnt make a big offseason FA splash.  Strategy seems to be that the in house talent is ready to shine.  Thats what Ive been asking for.  Hope Im right.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Other than losing Gray, this lineup is substantially superior to what we began with in 2023.

Hmm. Substantially superior? If Julian, Wallner and Lewis can adjust and stay healthy, maybe. But the rotation is substantially inferior, and that usually sets the table for success.

Bullpen looks okay. Lineup looks slightly above average. Speed looks below average. Defense appears average. Rotation is clearly below average. That doesn't lead me to the same optimism.

[stringer bell]

31 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Hmm. Substantially superior? If Julian, Wallner and Lewis can adjust and stay healthy, maybe. But the rotation is substantially inferior, and that usually sets the table for success.

Bullpen looks okay. Lineup looks slightly above average. Speed looks below average. Defense appears average. Rotation is clearly below average. That doesn't lead me to the same optimism.

To me, the rotation looks pretty good if, and it is a huge if, the top three guys establish themselves this year. It seems the consensus is that López is and will be a #1 pitcher. I really like him too, but another good/great year would move him up to that level among people who aren't cheering for the Twins. The same for Ryan and Ober as above average starters--last year's performance was that, but they need another year to back it up IMHO. If those three can put up the innings and other numbers, then the rotation is pretty good. 

I also like Paddack to be really good this year, fully healthy and motivated. The #5-#8 spots are not well defined and there's not a ton of upside. My fervent hope is that this group's performance is not what determines success or failure. 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

So far this feels like an empty off season to me. I don't think they have improved over last year much if any. I'm kind of disappointed they filled some spots with older players, possibly even on a downward trend. I wanted to see another quality starter added, and they got Desclafini instead. I was hoping they would take a long look at a few kids from the minors, but instead filled the roster with journeymen type players that just don't move the needle that much for me. I have been a Twins fan since they 1st moved here, no matter where my company sent me around the country, and they will continue to be "my team" as long as I live, so I will be pulling for all these guys. I truly hope I look back on this in October and say " boy was I a dope".

DeSclafani.

They have an emerging nucleus, and if they get full seasons at similar levels from last year from Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner, plus a more stretched out starting pitcher performance from Ober, with maybe Lee sprinkled in for an early summer call up, the team seems equal to last year - less starting pitching, more depth in the bullpen and more offense. If you get a healthy Correa and semi-healthy Buxton, they could well be a 90+ wins team. Sure, there are 'ifs' but the talent is there.

[Riverbrian]

I do not think we will be a stronger team in 2024 compared to 2023 but I will pick the Twins to win the AL Central. 

I do that every year 

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Farmer appears to be a good guy and he's a capable utility infielder, but for over $6M, he is a luxury. The most important thing for a utility infielder is to be a capable shortstop. At his age (34 in August) Farmer doesn't have nearly average range for a shortstop. The Twins have three other options if Correa would go down short term or long term. Lee would replace CC4 in the event of a disabling injury, while both Willi Castro and Royce Lewis could fill in if Carlos is out for a few games. 

This is no rap on Farmer, but I don't know of a single team that would consider acquiring him to be a regular infielder at this point. 

Farmer is a necessity, not a luxury. In the Twins case, shortstop is the least important thing he does.

He backstops every youngster in the lineup. That's worth 6m.

Also as an aside, I'm starting to get the feeling the Orioles are getting Snell or Montgomery. No sources, just a feeling. That's a super team in both leagues, they still need major contributions from most of the question marks and add a starting pitcher. The deadline makes sense to me bt they can't ever be done tinkering.

If all the kids are alright Farmer has value at the deadline for someone backfilling an injury. Not so much now.

[sweetmusicviola16]

How about if we do what the Royals and Tigers are doing with their up and coming and established talent? The Royals just handed out an 11/288 deal to Bobby Witt JR. We should be extending Lewis, Julien and Duran. Instead we are signing 36 y/o relievers with virtually no track record. 

"Be happy Twins fan. You have a team and it is competitive."

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

To me, the rotation looks pretty good if, and it is a huge if, the top three guys establish themselves this year. It seems the consensus is that López is and will be a #1 pitcher. I really like him too, but another good/great year would move him up to that level among people who aren't cheering for the Twins. The same for Ryan and Ober as above average starters--last year's performance was that, but they need another year to back it up IMHO. If those three can put up the innings and other numbers, then the rotation is pretty good. 

I also like Paddack to be really good this year, fully healthy and motivated. The #5-#8 spots are not well defined and there's not a ton of upside. My fervent hope is that this group's performance is not what determines success or failure. 

Someone just posted elsewhere on the TD that, according to one of the major analytics outfits, the Twins pitching staff in 2024 projects to have the overall fourth highest WAR and the highest in the AL (with, btw, the second lowest pitching payroll above only Oakland).  Wouldn’t that be nice if that actually happened.

[Drtwins]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

Other than losing Gray, this lineup is substantially superior to what we began with in 2023.  And way more fun to watch. And if Ober, Varland, and Paddack progress as we think they can, the starting staff will be improved overall even with DeSclafani.

Most importantly, we have not traded away our controllable, cheap young talent - whether in the bigs already or on the way. We should be favored to win the division in ‘24 with an even brighter future ahead for several years. 

I don't disagree with the belief that the current lineup is superior to what they began with in 2023, but would argue it is worse than what the Twins finished with in 2023. Anyone can say Buxton can be better, Correa can be better, the youngsters will continue to trend up but if you just look player by player. The Twins have effectively swapped Solano and Polanco for Gordon and Santana. IMO Polanco>Santana and Solano>Gordon. Therefore, it's a downgrade from how the team finished 2023. Now, I will admit Santana and Gordon in the field should be better so there is some positives there. The bullpen has some slight upgrades and a lot more options which will help. The starting staff is definitely a downgrade compared to 2023 at this point. I do believe some combination of Paddock, Varland, Desclafani will be as good or better than Maeda, but they will not reach Gray numbers (Gray himself likely won't). Having 3 back of the rotation arms definitely will help with injuries. This team is built to win in the regular season, just not the playoffs. Fingers crossed they can make a move for a 2nd high impact starter at some point throughout the year to push for a World Series appearance.

[Fatbat]

I don’t understand the lack of respect for our starting 5 plus disco.  We are going to get starts from probably 8 different guys and none of them have massive concerns. Issues yes, but there are enough arms to cover 950 innings and get above average results! That means we win games with pitching especially considering that our bullpen could be lights out and shut down any rally.  We do need to figure out playoff stuff but we got awhile until then.  There are always guys that step up and take on a bigger role. There will be some that regress.  If mgmnt can figure out that the guys that are hot, play more innings. We will win the central easy. Again. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

How about if we do what the Royals and Tigers are doing with their up and coming and established talent? The Royals just handed out an 11/288 deal to Bobby Witt JR. We should be extending Lewis, Julien and Duran. Instead we are signing 36 y/o relievers with virtually no track record. 

"Be happy Twins fan. You have a team and it is competitive."

Bobby Witt is what Royce Lewis is, but without the injury history, and he's a true shortstop. I would say it is a no-brainer to extend Witt, he's gonna be great as long as he's healthy. I'm not so sure that the Tigers extending a guy who wasn't so highly regarded but raked in the minors is a great move. We shall see.

In general, I don't think taking cues from Detroit or KC is the way to go. The Royals have been building and rebuilding since they went to the World Series in '15(?) and the Tigers were dreadful for the last seven years. Both teams have had a lot of Top 5-10 picks in the last decade. 

Durán has two years of service time, Lewis one-plus, Julien less than one. Maybe after this year, and with more revenue certainty, the Twins will look at locking up some of these guys. 

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Bobby Witt is what Royce Lewis is, but without the injury history, and he's a true shortstop. I would say it is a no-brainer to extend Witt, he's gonna be great as long as he's healthy. I'm not so sure that the Tigers extending a guy who wasn't so highly regarded but raked in the minors is a great move. We shall see.

In general, I don't think taking cues from Detroit or KC is the way to go. The Royals have been building and rebuilding since they went to the World Series in '15(?) and the Tigers were dreadful for the last seven years. Both teams have had a lot of Top 5-10 picks in the last decade. 

Durán has two years of service time, Lewis one-plus, Julien less than one. Maybe after this year, and with more revenue certainty, the Twins will look at locking up some of these guys. 

Said it when they did it...Det extending a guy with no MLB record is crazy.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Desclafani.

DiScelfana

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Durán has two years of service time, Lewis one-plus, Julien less than one. Maybe after this year, and with more revenue certainty, the Twins will look at locking up some of these guys. 

Future revenues shouldn't enter into the equation unless you think MLB as a whole is going to see revenue crater. The Twins might run the attendance into the ground and continue to sign the worst TV deal in all of MLB but talented players on team-friendly extensions are an asset. They should do the extensions even if Target Field gets hit by a meteor tomorrow.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins don't have anyone right now that remotely compares to Bobby Witt Jr. Witt Jr. is still 23, has two full seasons in the books, and has shown improvement in all phases of his game. He ranks with Julio Rodriguez among young AL stars. The Twins do have some fine young players just working on getting their first 500 PA in MLB and a couple of exciting prospects. The time for attempting long term deals may come in a few years but it doesn't seem likely now with all of the financial uncertainties. The roster looks pretty set and we shall see who goes to Kansas City in late March. 

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins don't have anyone right now that remotely compares to Bobby Witt Jr. Witt Jr. is still 23, has two full seasons in the books, and has shown improvement in all phases of his game. He ranks with Julio Rodriguez among young AL stars. The Twins do have some fine young players just working on getting their first 500 PA in MLB and a couple of exciting prospects. The time for attempting long term deals may come in a few years but it doesn't seem likely now with all of the financial uncertainties. The roster looks pretty set and we shall see who goes to Kansas City in late March. 

Witt's deal also doesn't buy out any free agent years, unless Witt wants it to.

If Witt is as good as the Royals hope he is, he'll get to walk and cash in an even bigger payday. If he's not, this deal will become an albatross.

Edit: Looks like the Royals bought ONE free agent year. He would have been a free agent in 2028, now he can opt out in 2029 and every year after. That young man did well for himself. And I'm sure the Royals are happy to have the cost control.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Desclafani.

They have an emerging nucleus, and if they get full seasons at similar levels from last year from Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner, plus a more stretched out starting pitcher performance from Ober, with maybe Lee sprinkled in for an early summer call up, the team seems equal to last year - less starting pitching, more depth in the bullpen and more offense. If you get a healthy Correa and semi-healthy Buxton, they could well be a 90+ wins team. Sure, there are 'ifs' but the talent is there.

So you think Desclafini is an improvement over last years staff?

[arby58]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

DiScelfana

Anthony DeSclafani

American baseball pitcher

 

 

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

So you think Desclafini is an improvement over last years staff?

Anthony DeSclafani

American baseball pitcher

 

I think that as number 5 starters go, he's about what they had last year. Compare his starting numbers to Varland and Maeda, and he falls about in the middle of the two in terms of ERA and WHIP. There is also the issue that he started strong, then not so much, which is probably because of injury. The one issue that has been raised that is relevant is whether he will be injury-free at the start of the season. That may well mean that Varland plays the Ober role of AAA-MLB-AAA-MLB next year.

 

In terms of next year's staff, I fully expect Ober to have a very good year - he was great last year until innings caught up with him. He had the look of a number 2 starter when he was going good last year. Ryan will probably be his typical number 3 type starter self. A lot depends on if they can get 120 innings of starting pitching out of CP. He certainly looked good in his brief audition end of last year.  I've said I think the starting pitching won't be as good in 2024, but the offense should be better, and the bullpen has more depth. On offense, you're really just replacing Taylor in CF (expect Buxton to make up for that) and Polanco's half year. If they can get close to full years from Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff and some return to form from Correa, the offense should be better - maybe by a lot.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

We should be extending Lewis, Julien and Duran. Instead we are signing 36 y/o relievers with virtually no track record. 

That is what is known as a false dilemma or false dichotomy.