Does Signing Kiké Hernández Make Sense for the Twins?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Would it make sense for the Twins to sign the 32-year-old utility player?

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

 

Soon after Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Twins had traded second baseman Jorge Polanco and his $10.5 million contract to the Seattle Mariners for veteran right-handed pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa and prospects Gabriel González (79th ranked prospect on MLB.com) and Darren Bowen, signals of what the team will do next soon began trickling out. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that between parting with Polanco's contract and the Mariners taking on most of DeSclafani and Topa's 2024 contracts, the Twins had freed up $6.5 million to spend on free agency. The same night, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com provided insight into where the Twins' newfound money could be spent:

 

Late Friday night, Darren Wolfson of KSTP reported the Twins had signed first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana to a one-year contract. Minutes later, Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that the Twins will be paying the 37-year-old switch hitter $5.25 million plus incentives next season. Though the Twins have already spent 84% of the money saved from trading Polanco to Seattle, there is reason to suspect the front office will add one more veteran piece. Though a right-handed hitting first baseman/designated hitter is no longer needed, the Twins would benefit from acquiring a player who could provide depth in both the infield and outfield. Interestingly, Hayes noted in an article published four days ago that the Twins could "look" at signing veteran utility player Kiké Hernández.

Hernández, 32, spent the 2023 MLB season with the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. In the 140 games he spent between the two franchises, the one-time World Series champion hit .237/.289/.357 with 110 hits, 11 home runs, four stolen bases, 6.7% walk percentage, 19.1% strikeout percentage, and 72 wRC+ while generating -1.3 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs over 508 plate appearances. Though Hernández put together a lackluster season at the plate, the bulk of his struggles came defensively. Of 262 qualified players, Hernández was the second worst defender in baseball, generating a -17 Outs Above Average (OAA) at centerfield in 2023. 

FanGraphs's defensive metric, Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF), measures a player's defensive value relative to the league average. In 2023, Hernández generated a -6.7 DEF at shortstop, ranking him 1388 of 1430 qualified defenders. Hernández was objectively horrible in the field in 2023, and if it weren't for Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (who ranked last in OAA and DEF), he reasonably could have been labeled the worst defensive player in MLB last season.

Hernández hasn't been a league-average player since his first season with Boston in 2021, where he generated a 109 wRC+ over 134 games. Since then, Hernández has generated a 74 wRC+ in 2022 and a 72 wRC+ in 2023. If it weren't for 2016, a season in which Hernández culminated a 67 wRC+ over 109 during his first stint with the Dodgers, 2023 would have been the American Military Academy product's worst season in MLB. Although the last few years of Hernández's career in Boston have been bleak, there is reason to believe he can contribute to a contending team. 

On July 25, the Red Sox traded Hernández to the Dodgers for right-handed pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman and $2.5 million in cash considerations. Before getting traded, it was clear Hernández needed a fresh start, and he couldn't have landed in a better situation than his former team. To emphasize this point, here are Hernández's splits between the two teams last season:

• Red Sox: .222/.279/.320, 323 PA, 66 hits, six home runs, three stolen bases, 6.8% walk percentage, 21.1% strikeout percentage, 59 wRC+
• Dodgers: .262/.308/.423, 185 PA, 44 hits, five home runs, one stolen base, 6.5% walk percentage, 15.7% strikeout percentage, 96 wRC+

Highlighted by a 37-point jump in wRC+, Hernández excelled in Los Angeles, showing a sustainable improvement in nearly every offensive category in a significantly smaller sample size. Interestingly, Hernández performed better at a much less hitter-friendly park. According to Baseball Savant's Statcast Park Factors, Fenway Park is the second-most hitter-friendly park, generating a 108 Park Factor. Dodger is the 19th-most hitter-friendly park, generating a Park Factor of 99. Although no empirical evidence could support this notion, a change of scenery from Boston to Los Angeles appeared to help Hernández improve the second half of last season. 

The Twins' 40-man roster is fully occupied, but the front office could waive reliever Daniel Duarte or outfielder Bubba Thompson to clear up the space necessary to sign Hernández. Although deciding to part ways with one of Duarte or Thompson would be an innocuous transaction, adding Hernández would create a logjam on the team's 26-man roster. 

The Twins' primary utility players for the 2024 season are projected to be Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, and Willi Castro, with seventh-ranked prospect Austin Martin waiting at Triple-A. Although Farmer is limited to the infield, Gordon, Castro, and Martin's flexibility expands into the outfield, a skillset that goes hand-in-hand with what Hernández would provide. If the Twins were to sign Hernández, the team's decision-makers would likely need to option Castro to Triple-A or designate Gordon for assignment to avoid redundancy. 

If presented with this ultimatum, the front office would elect to designate Gordon for assignment and subsequently waive him. Although Gordon had a breakout 2022 season, the 28-year-old struggled at the beginning of his 2023 campaign before fracturing his right shin in May and missing the rest of the season. Hernández is a superior player to Gordon, and, as a contact-skilled right-handed hitter, the San Juan, Puerto Rico native would provide a sense of balance to a lineup predominately comprised of high-variance all-or-nothing hitters.

Hernández struggled at the plate and on the field in 2023. Although his 2023 numbers are cause for concern, it is fair to assume that a significant portion of his struggles stemmed from the Red Sox asking him to fill a role he was never suited to. Hernández's value lies in being a contact-first utility player who can adequately play seven out of nine positions on the field. The Twins could plausibly sign Hernández with the remaining money freed up from sending Polanco to Seattle, and although pricier right-handed hitting outfielders like Duvall, Pham, or Taylor are more enticing, none provide the same skillset and positional flexibility as Hernández. 

Does Hernández intrigue you? Would you prefer Hernández or Gordon? Are the Twins better off spending their limited money on a right-handed hitting outfielder like Duvall, Pham, or Taylor? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[stringer bell]

Adding what the Twins will pay both Topa and DeSclafani yields a net of $5.25M in the Polanco transaction. So, 100% of that money was used in signing Santana. If the Twins decide their self-imposed limit is on the high end of estimates ($140M) there would be plenty of room to add another player or take on the salary of one of many mid-tier pitchers. If the Twins want to add a position player, presumably on a one-year deal, Michael A Taylor looks like a great fit. Last year's split versus left handed pitching was excellent (.914 OPS) and we all know he is a fine defensive outfielder who could fill for Buxton absences. 

Kiké hasn't been good for a couple of years and if he isn't a decent center field option there is no reason to consider him.

[Fatbat]

No. We can do better. 

[Karbo]

I'd pass on him. Keep adding questionable type players and it blocks the way for the kids to come up and prove whether or not they can succeed at the major league level.

[chpettit19]

The Twins have enough floor. It's time to start adding ceiling. Kike is not a ceiling adder. Let's stop looking for league average, at best, veterans with no futures for this team and raise our expectations a little. DeSclafani and Santana are enough floor additions for this team. If they aren't going to add ceiling raising talent just let the kids play.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👀

[Parfigliano]

If they are intent on spending just to spend sign me.  I'm available for league minimum.  

[CRF]

Forgive me for asking...when did it make sense? 

[SaberNerd]

He's significantly worse than Castro.  We can sign another OF, and Lee will likely be ready midseason to play 2B/3B/SS.  I do not have any interest unless it is a minor-league contract.

[gman]

If needed, we could probably sign the equivalent any time throughout the year. Why make space now?

[DocBauer]

Seriously, why is this a question? 

In his 10 ML seasons he's been...never great...but above league average in 5 of them. Of the other 5 seasons, I believe his highest OPS+ was 92. And there were a pair of recent seasons in the 70's. And he's no longer positive on any defensive position is he?

He doesn't even add to the floor at this point. Grab Taylor or Duvall, one more defense and one more offense, and either seemingly fits in to the 2024 payroll. OR, stretch the payroll a little more and grab Soler at 2yrs and $28-30M and add some potential RH power. 

But stop with floor or basement types. 

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Another utility player is the last thing this team needs.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I'd do a hard pass on Hernandez.  We have enough of his type already available to us  in some form.

If it becomes someone who can play CF on at least a semi-competent and semi-regular basis, then I might be interested.

[RpR]

In reference to the thread title: NO.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

That's a terrible idea.  He's a substantially worse version of something the Twins already have twice over.  Please no. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

54 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Another utility player is the last thing this team needs.

Succinct and specific. Good post.

[HrbieFan]

I'd rather roll with Taylor again 

[Otaknam]

Click bait column, but I’ll bite. Signing Hernandez would be a head scratcher. With the team’s self imposed financial limitations it makes more sense to utilize the current roster of Castro, Gordon, and Martin. Why sign a more expensive utility guy and potentially lose Gordon? Makes no sense. 

[High heat]

I would think Kiki would be a good signing  for a million and to take Nick Gordon’s roster spot.  It would be trade or cut Gordon.

 

A right handed speed and contact hitter to fill in at LF and CF would be nice addition.

If we have no $ MAT isn’t a option, I just feel bad that Nick Gordon is a solid backup OFer with some speed but he hits LH the same as the 2 starts already who are much better. 

[HoskenPowell]

Total and complete answer is NO.

Get MAT back and start the season.

[JD-TWINS]

33 stolen bases v. 4……..106 OPS+ v. 74 OPS+…….. .257 BA as a switch hitter v. .237 BA……….2.6 WAR v. -.1 WAR.

Let’s option Castro today & sign Hernandez………………..a serious topic??

[KBJ1]

No. We already have Austin Martin, a high contact, high BAve. Hitter who has speed and plays excellent defense, including CF.

Hard pass!