TRADE: Twins Send Jorge Polanco to Mariners in Five-Player Deal

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Comparing Gonzales to Emma?  Really not comparibke at all even in the rankings.  Remma is a concensus top 50 prospoct...Gonzales is at a best a low 100 type.  Doing Rodriguez a huge disservice there Doc.

I don't think you can really interpret prospect rankings like that.  They are more like "buckets" that break down into relative levels.  I would say a top 20 is a little better than a top 50 is a little better than a top 75. . . etc., but the differences between those prospects after the very top level is extremely subjective and volatile.  As far as "low 100 types", we only have three that beat that on paper, so it's not something to dismiss easily.

[JesusisLord7]

I like it. Polanco was just blocking better players. We got a starter who might fight to be .500 and a right handed power prospect that could be the gem. Either way Polanco is out of the way and it paves the way for Julien and maybe Brooks Lee who need to play. 

[tony&rodney]

The payroll sits at around $115 million. Falvey stated the Twins plan to spend the $10 million. That would bring it back to $125 million. It isn't important really, but man what a switch from the mention of a $170 million payroll on this site and the Twins Daily roster calculator set to $150 million. Sure shows that fans are essentially out of it on their guesses to an extent.

[stringer bell]

The story is that the Twins will spend their savings on a player or players, perhaps free agents. Before any further acquisitions, the position player side has changed dramatically. If Buxton can play center field most of the time, the DH slot can rotate. With Castro, Gordon and Farmer inserted in the field and all of Lewis, Correa, Julien and Kirilloff can DH. Adding a credible right handed bat can mean an enhanced attack against left handers. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don't think you can really interpret prospect rankings like that.  They are more like "buckets" that break down into relative levels.  I would say a top 20 is a little better than a top 50 is a little better than a top 75. . . etc., but the differences between those prospects after the very top level is extremely subjective and volatile.  As far as "low 100 types", we only have three that beat that on paper, so it's not something to dismiss easily.

I was responding to a different blogger who was viewing Gonzales and Emma as equals.  I couldn't disagree more.  But you as well as the other poster are entitled to your opinios.

[JesusisLord7]

. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF, 19, Single-A
There were three prospects fighting for this top spot, but Gabriel Gonzalez’s ceiling might be the highest in the system. In 63 games between the Arizona Complex League and Single-A, Gonzalez compiled a .321/.410/.468 slash line with 7 HR and 9 SB. Over his 150 PA in Single-A, Gonzalez maintained a 116 wRC+, not bad for a player almost 2 years younger than the average age for the level.

Gonzalez has a stockier build, so he’ll definitely need to tap into his power more for there to be a an All-Star here. The upshot is that Gonzalez has maintained elite plate and contact skills despite being young for every level he’s played in. Calling him the next JRod is probably hyperbole, but there’s also a lot to like.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

A Seattle beat reporter offers her take on the trade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMydZACP8hc

 

Outstanding. Thank you for providing this. A lot of great information. 

But it makes me more concerned about this deal. I like our FO. And I've been accused of being an overly optimistic fan...granted...but I've also called out the FO when I feel they've made mistakes. 

The young lady in the report seems very plugged in. Including the fact the FO was very dialed in to them wanting to add Polanco. And I keep asking myself, if the Mariners wanted Polanco so bad, why didn't the Twins just add more to sweeten the deal to add someone better in the return?

[Jocko87]

Why do I get the feeling they are planning on more bullpen innings this year compared to last?

[cmoss84]

1. We have humans on our roster to replace Polanco. 

2. If 1 out of 5 players hits, we are equal. Anything above that is gravy. Seems like a good risk/reward.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Jocko87 said:

Why do I get the feeling they are planning on more bullpen innings this year compared to last?

Because gray is gone? I mean, it seems likely they won't be as good or healthy, so more bullpen arms they trust is important.

[JesusisLord7]

MLB.COM has Gabriel Gonzalez now as the 4th best Twins prospect. This kid must be much better than we think. 

 

[pierre75275]

Right handed outfield bat...Michael Taylor? Spelling Buxton in center a couple days a week and Kepler against a tough lefty while Castro covers left field?

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I didn't want to like this post, but that is exactly where I've been for weeks--the teams willing to trade good controllable starting pitching are not going to take on the salary of Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler.  Teams that want Polanco or Kepler might be willing to give back prospects, but they aren't going to part with a #1-#3 starter who is controllable. 

Except, there are teams like Seattle and Miami who need offense and seem to have pitching to spare to add. And the Twins had Polanco to spare themselves, and could add a Larnach, maybe a close Severino, and a few solid to good prospects to "spare" for the future.

But the Twins just threw out an ACE with nothing to back it up in a short game. Now they have to dig deeper than they should have to have a winning hand. 

 

[cmoss84]

I'm getting "the trade" vibes here. You know...Joe, Liriano, Boof...ect. we might have struck gold. Many great memories of Jorge so bittersweet!

 

[JesusisLord7]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2023/twins/

[JesusisLord7]

Gonzalez. Maybe this kid will be right handed DH. 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 45 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Excellent contribution, thank you for digging it up. Shannon Drayer is no ordinary talking head. She said (paraphrasing) the Twins had been pushing for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo all offseason, but the Mariners would not budge on that. That the Mariners really have loved Polanco for a long time and this fixes two positions for them, 2B and 3B. Also that they didn't want to part with Topa. At first glance I thought the same thing, Topa is really the best piece of this bunch coming back. 

Thanks again.

This only reaffirms my position the FO should have added and got back one of those arms the Twins were looking at by adding a couple good prospects instead of what they did.

[RaoulDuke]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

From SB Nation fansite for Seattle

Darren Bowen, RHP

Age: 23 / B/T: R/R / Drafted: 2022 / Final level in 2023: A / MLB ETA: 2026

After being drafted in the 13th round out of UNC-Pembroke, Darren Bowen started his career a bit later than his fellow draftees after rehabbing an injury from college. Upon his debut, he took the league by storm and posted some eye-catching numbers out of the gate. With a mid 90’s fastball that gets ridiculous ride and a dynamite slider that makes batters look foolish, Bowen has some nasty stuff that tracks to play at the next level. He worked as a starter for Modesto, though much of the year was spent building up his innings and no start eclipsed six innings. He does walk a fair amount of batters, but it’s not an overwhelming problem that prohibits him from starting. Seattle seems to view him as a starter and he will be given the opportunity to do so, but an eventual move to the bullpen is not out of the question. Should this change be necessary, the stuff will absolutely play and he’d immediately be a potential leverage reliever. He’s an arm to watch for this upcoming season; he’s already attracting a lot of attention outside the system among pitching wonks for his pitch data. The one thing holding us back from ranking him more highly is needing to see if he can harness that command better in longer stretches.

22

That seems like a promising scouting report.  Right up the Falvine alley with high ride and a slider, they are betting on being able to unlock some things for him.  They do love to target analytics darlings with ride or spin or extension. 

I wonder if his college injury was known and that dropped his draft stock?

I wonder how long they will try and keep building him as a starter, seems like he could be on a much quicker path in the pen. 

He is a major lottery ticket kinda prospect but a nice get as a throw in to push the deal over the line.

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Outstanding. Thank you for providing this. A lot of great information. 

But it makes me more concerned about this deal. I like our FO. And I've been accused of being an overly optimistic fan...granted...but I've also called out the FO when I feel they've made mistakes. 

The young lady in the report seems very plugged in. Including the fact the FO was very dialed in to them wanting to add Polanco. And I keep asking myself, if the Mariners wanted Polanco so bad, why didn't the Twins just add more to sweeten the deal to add someone better in the return?

It's pretty simple ... As much as we wanted their young pitching, they just as badly did not want to give it up.  There are more options to get hitting than there are options to get good young pitching.  They didn't need to give it up to get a Polanco type of player so they held their ground.  As fans we often think deals that we want could have been made but the basis of our desire is the same basis for them not accepting such a trade.

Also, I think the money is being a bit overlooked here.  Invest that $10M we saved plus a decent RP with 3 years of control and SP depth is not bad.  The overall impact on this year's team is at least neutral provided they spend the $10M.  Throw in a top 100 prospect and a flyer (Bowen) and I think we did pretty decent for a guy who was not going to be a starter on this team.

[Fat Calvin]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not surprised to see Polanco dealt. Not surprised he went to Seattle. Expected both things. Disappointed that the best pieces coming back are a 33 year old reliever and 20 year old prospect with plate discipline concerns and limited projectability. Yes, I know he's a top-100 guy on MLB's list, but Fangraphs has him as a 40+ FV guy.

I'm with @DocBauer and would've much rather seen the Twins be the ones to send money and prospect(s) to get a legit arm for the rotation. DeSclafani accomplishes the goal of pushing Varland into the Ober role (I don't think they're putting him in the pen to start the year), but he's no better than the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy signings I hoped we were past.

I fully expect more moves to be made, and hopefully that makes this move look better. But, to me, all they did tonight was turn an 87 win team into an 84 win team. Yes, Julien is likely taking on the 2B job, but there's no way they were planning on Buxton being a fulltime DH again, and Polanco was going to be the DH and 2 hole hitter on this team. They turned their 2 hole hitter into a prospect who flopped in A+ ball and a middle reliever. I don't think they got too little value for Polanco, but I don't see how this is anything but a downgrade for the 2024 team. And I'm not a fan of any move that takes a playoff team and makes it worse. But, again, I fully expect them to make more moves so they have the chance to do some things to improve the team from here on out. Let's hope they do it.

What do you expect for a 5th starter?  I think Bundy, in the last year we had him, was a perfectly adequate 5th starter.  Now you could argue that we could have got a 4th starter for Polanco, but we would never have received the package of a top 100 prospect, a decent reliever, and a 6 million dollar throw-in.   I think this deal will turn out well for us.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Pretty underwhelmed. 

 

Desclafani most likely doesn't help the Twins in any meaningful way.

ESPN grades the trade as an A- for the Twins and a C for the Mariners. Desclafini is probably the third piece from the Twins perspective. As ESPN writes, "Topa was a major contributor last season for a bullpen that finished with the fourth-best ERA in the majors, posting a 2.61 ERA over 75 appearances." They also refer to Gonzalez as 'a prospect of some note.'

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

This only reaffirms my position the FO should have added and got back one of those arms the Twins were looking at by adding a couple good prospects instead of what they did.

Why would the Mariners trade use their best assets to trade for a package when they are contending? Nightingale reported that they were looking to improve their rotation with Cease. It just doesn’t make sense that they would go the other direction and trade from their starting 5. Contending teams need to come away with the best player in the deal not a package of lesser players, Seattle plans to contend.

[Paul D]

An infielder HAD to be moved, the options were Farmer or Polanco.  The FO announced that they would not trade for prospects and the deal needed to include major league players.  We now have 6 potential starters and if Varland is not 1 of the 6, we have a solid bullpen piece.  We also have a reliever who can replace Pagan.  There was a $10.5M player leaving and a $6M and $1.5M player coming in (the Giants are paying $6M of DeScarfini's salary).  Looks like the Mariners are adding $6M to the deal, meaning the Twins are plus $9M.  That money, hopefully along with some out of the budget will be used to add a player(s) before the season starts.  It could be another SP, a RH 1B or a RH COF.

On top of it all Julien has a place to play, or Lee, who will probably make the 26-man will get his shot.  And the DH spot will be available should Buxton need to sit for a 1/2 a season.

The outcome was as good as we could have expected and we have another top 100 prospect and a lottery ticket.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Andy_Twins said:

What makes you think that Seattle would have accepted Polo + someone in the 10-20 range for one of their SPs?  I am thinking they would have wanted Polo + one of the top three prospects + more.

Because they gave up a decent pen arm, a flier, $6M in cash, and their reportedly #3 prospect? 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Because they gave up a decent pen arm, a flier, $6M in cash, and their reportedly #3 prospect? 

None of whom are starting pitchers in the majors. 

[chpettit19]

59 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

What do you expect for a 5th starter?  I think Bundy, in the last year we had him, was a perfectly adequate 5th starter.  Now you could argue that we could have got a 4th starter for Polanco, but we would never have received the package of a top 100 prospect, a decent reliever, and a 6 million dollar throw-in.   I think this deal will turn out well for us.

I don't care about decent relievers, 6 million dollar throw-ins, or guys who are top-100 prospects on 1 list, but getting 40+ FV grades on others when im trying to compete this season. I don't want any "5th starters" in the sense you're talking about. There's no rule that says the 5th guy in your rotation has to be worse than the 1st guy. You're allowed to have 5 really good starting pitchers when you're trying to actually compete. DeSclafani and Bundy types have no business in rotations of contending teams.

As I said in that post, I don't think they got less than Polanco was worth. I just would prefer to be the team giving up the top-100 prospect and 6 million dollar throw-in to get the best player in the deal instead of making my team worse in the deal. But hopefully subsequent moves make up for what they lost tonight. But there's a difference between thinking they didn't get enough value for Polanco and thinking that future value isn't what the team needed.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Yes. That team was Seattle. At least IMO. 

Just look at it from a different perspective. They wanted, and frankly needed. Polanco. And they have the depth to trade 1 of about 5 arms depending on the package from Castillo to Miller to Hancock to Woo, etc. The Twins could given them some combination of Polanco, Larnach, Severino, Schobel. Rosario, J Rodriguez,  Mercedes, even an arm to replace whoever they gave up like Festa, (shudder moment), SWR, Jones, etc, to make a ONE STOP SHOP for both teams on a 1 for 3 deal, or a 2 for 4 deal where Topa is still included.

POTENTIALLY, the Mariners get Polanco, Larnach, Severino, and a quality arm for one of their arms and still keep their reported #3 prospect in Gonzalez. They don't even have to throw in the $6M they are sending to the Twins. 

You are saying it, but I can’t agree. Larnach is not going to move the needle much nor is Severino. Polanco, Kepler, Lewis, Lee, Julien and maybe Kirilloff are the names that could pry a quality, cost-controlled starter from the Mariners. And the Twins would have to add a pitcher to that. 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Why would the Mariners trade use their best assets to trade for a package when they are contending? Nightingale reported that they were looking to improve their rotation with Cease. It just doesn’t make sense that they would go the other direction and trade from their starting 5. Contending teams need to come away with the best player in the deal not a package of lesser players, Seattle plans to contend.

Why would the Twins? These statements about contending teams needing to come away with the best player in the deal are suggesting the Twins aren't a contending team. Are the Twins not also trying to contend?

[dberthia]

I'll take it. Jorge has been on the field for fewer and fewer games over the last couple of years, so this seems like a decent return.

[stringer bell]

6 hours ago, Paul D said:

We now have 6 potential starters and if Varland is not 1 of the 6, we have a solid bullpen piece. 

On top of it all Julien has a place to play, or Lee, who will probably make the 26-man will get his shot.  And the DH spot will be available should Buxton need to sit for a 1/2 a season.

I count Louie as no worse than #6 and perhaps at #5. 

I think it’s still a real long shot for Lee to break camp with the Twins. Nick Gordon would now seem to have a much better chance of staying with the Twins.