Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #16-20

[Seth Stohs]

After looking at the players who just missed our Top 20 Twins prospect rankings yesterday, today we look at those who ranked 16th through 20th in our poll of Twins Daily minor-league writers. In this group, you'll find four pitchers and an intriguing catcher.

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo

Last night, we began the 2024 Twins Daily Top Prospects series with a way-too-deep dive into the deeper end of the Minnesota Twins system. The honorable mentions are broken into several categories of players who fell just outside the Top 20. There are certainly players in that group who will play in the big leagues.

With that said, the odds of an MLB future increase as we jump into the Top 20 of our list. In today’s group of five players, we find an intriguing group that includes players whose careers have been affected by injury. 

20. Zebby Matthews, RHP 
Age: 23
2023 Stats (Low-A/High-A): 105 1/3 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 
Matthews was the Twins' eighth-round pick in 2022 out of Western Carolina. In his final year there, he had 122 strikeouts and just 21 walks over 95 2/3 innings. Matthews is a strike-throwing machine. In his 105 1/3 innings, he had 112 strikeouts and just 15 walks. 

Matthews sits in the low 90s. He reworked his slider and made it break much more, which made it much more of a weapon for him. He began the season with eight appearances in Fort Myers, where he went 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA. In 38 2/3 innings, he had 53 strikeouts and just five walks. He moved up to Cedar Rapids and made 14 appearances, 13 of them starts. He went 4-2 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. 

He will need to continue to work and develop, like any prospect in A-ball. He will work to add some velocity and hone a third pitch.

19. Simeon Woods Richardson
Age: 23
2023 Stats (AAA): 113 2/3 IP, 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 
2023 Stats (MLB): 4 2/3 IP, 9.64 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 
It was a tale of two seasons for Woods Richardson. He had a rough first half of his 2023 season, and a much-improved second half didn’t make the overall numbers look pretty. However, the Sugar Land native was very good over the season's final three months. 

2023 Stats (April - June): 51 2/3 IP, 0-5, 7.66 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 
2023 Stats (July - Sept)): 66 2/3 IP, 7-1, 3.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 

I may be wrong, but to me this speaks to Woods Richardson's character, mental fortitude, and willingness to work and make adjustments. He will need to continue working on his control and command, but the second-half numbers should give reason for some optimism. What is also important to note is that he will spend the entire 2024 season at age 23. His velocity was down slightly in 2023, usually sitting 89-90 and touching 92. But he worked on some mechanical things this offseason to get that number back up. He’s young and talented. 

18. Ricardo Olivar, C/OF
Age: 21
2023 Stats (Rookie/A): 449 PA, .285/.403/.452, 28 2B, 10 HR, 58 RBI
Olivar signed with the Twins in 2019, out of Venezuela. Because of Covid, his pro career did not begin until 2021. He started in the FCL and hit .204 in 34 games and 59 plate appearances. He returned to the FCL in 2022 and was much improved. In 40 games and 154 plate appearances, he hit .349/.442/.605, with 12 doubles, three triples, and five home runs. He played 100 games for the Mighty Mussels in 2023 and hit well throughout the season. He struck out in 21% of his plate appearances. He walked 13% of the time, and was hit by a pitch 16 times. 

Olivar is intriguing because he is young and has a couple of plus tools. He isn’t tall, but he is built quite strong. He’s got work to do behind the plate. He hasn’t thrown out many base stealers in his career. He also has the speed and athleticism to play in the outfield. He had played quite a bit of center field, but spent more time in left field in 2023. He also played 22 games at DH, which tells us that they really wanted his bat in the lineup, and rightfully so. Our Jamie Cameron wrote about what makes Olivar such a fun enigma earlier today.

17. Connor Prielipp, LHP 
Age: 23
2023 Stats (Hi-A/FCL): 6 2/3 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 
Last year had to be an incredibly frustrating one for Prielipp. The Tomah, Wis. native went to the University of Alabama. He was terrific in four starts before the 2020 Covid season ended. In 2021, he made three starts for the Crimson Tide before his elbow blew up. He had Tommy John surgery and rehabbed through the rest of the 2021 year and well into 2022. Nevertheless, the Twins love his upside, talent, and stuff and used their second-round pick on the southpaw.

In 2023, he was the talk of Fort Myers. The hitters and pitchers were talking about how good he looked. He was throwing hard, consistently in the mid-90s. And his slider was lights out, getting a ton of swings and misses. He started the season with High-A Cedar Rapids. He made one start and gave up four runs (3 earned) on five hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out three batters. But then he didn’t pitch, and soon afterward, we found out he was back in Fort Myers with elbow pain. Two months after his first start, he made a start in the FCL. He went 2 2/3 innings and gave up two runs on three hits and two walks. And that was it. 

Soon after, we learned that he was having another elbow surgery (not Tommy John). His season was over. His talent and ceiling remain very high. However, since graduating from high school in 2019, he has thrown a total of 34 2/3 innings. He has already been in Fort Myers this spring and hopes that 2024 is the season that everything comes together.  

16. Matt Canterino, RHP
Age: 26
2023 Stats (AA): Did Not Pitch
Canterino was the Twins' second-round pick in 2019, out of Rice University. Since then, he has worked a total of 85 innings. When minor-league ball returned in 2021, Canterino went to Cedar Rapids. He completely dominated the level for five starts. He had 43 strikeouts and four walks in 21 innings. Unfortunately, he hurt his elbow and spent the rest of the season rehabbing, hoping to return. In 2022, he started the season at Wichita. He threw three innings most times out, and again, he had a 1.83 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 37 innings. Unfortunately, his elbow just never got right. Following the season, he had Tommy John surgery and spent all of 2023 rehabbing. 

By season’s end, Canterino threw some live batting practice. He was hitting 97 mph. He felt good about his breaking pitches and his changeup. He has had a reasonably normal offseason and will head to spring training ready to compete for a big-league job. He is training to be a starter but is certainly open to a role in the bullpen if that is earned. 

Canterino is tough to rank. Assuming health, he has as much talent and stuff and potential to dominate as any other pitcher on the Twins farm. However, he has pitched so little over the past four years that we can’t be entirely confident about how much he can do. While I typically don’t think that injury should push a prospect very far down rankings, I also acknowledge that 'age to level of competition' is a factor in prospect rankings. However, as a Twins fan, his prospect ranking doesn’t matter as much as him simply getting right. The Twins control his rights until he completes six years of service.

---

Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. I will try to get to as many of them as possible.

For more Twins Daily content on these five Twins prospects, click on the link with their name here: Matt Canterino, Connor Prielipp, Ricardo Olivar, Simeon Wood Richardson, and Zebby Matthews. 

Previous Installments
Honorable Mention 
Prospects 16-20 
Prospects 11-15 - Coming Soon!

View full article

[Cory Engelhardt]

Count me in the camp of those who are very excited over SWR. Great writeup, and exciting guys to follow.

[Dman]

I too am hoping for an SWR resurgence.  Not sure how many viewers caught Tom Froeming's video or SWR and his amazing plus stuff numbers, but if you haven't you should as it shows that if he can just get the fastball to a better spot he could be a real difference maker.  This will be big year for SWR.  If he wants to try and crack the MLB rotation.

[sweetmusicviola16]

If Prielipp and Canterino can ever get healthy, man look out we will have something. A lot of it.

SWR, I'm not really high on him at this point. Back of the rotation guy as I see it. But he does offer us some depth at that position and that does have value. I'd rather it be Richardson as the guy we call on than it be Dobnak.

[Guest]

The Twins have had orthopedic surgeons on speed dial

[jimbo92107]

Is it some kind of contract requirement that all Twins high-draft pitchers must have at least one TJ surgery before they get to the show?

It's not that we can't have good things...It's just that they have to be broken, then repaired at least once.

[Jocko87]

34 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If Prielipp and Canterino can ever get healthy, man look out we will have something. A lot of it.

SWR, I'm not really high on him at this point. Back of the rotation guy as I see it. But he does offer us some depth at that position and that does have value. I'd rather it be Richardson as the guy we call on than it be Dobnak.

But having two guys who barely pitched all year ranked over SWR is a bit of a stretch, especially when SWR finished the year strong.  I'm as hopeful for Prielipp as anyone but 34 innings since high school should not be putting him on any prospect lists.  If he actually pitches, he will shoot up the lists fast enough. SWR has a chance to be an MLB contributor this year at the same age as Prielipp who had a small bit of success at low A. 

Just because SWR has been around for a long time shouldn't change the outlook, he's still a 23 year old knocking on the door.  Prielipp may have more upside but a vanishing small chance of realizing it. I'm ranking SWR higher every time.  The same applies to Canterino. 

[Fatbat]

Great list!!! If all these guys get healthy and find their game at roughly the same time, we could be in for something special!

[Doctor Gast]

SWR is a tough kid, I haven't given up on him, he's still young. I expect him to have a good season. They should go with Canterino in the pen until his arm gets in shape then think about SP. I've been high on Ricardo Olivar he has all the tools to be a pretty good catcher, IMO the coaches need to work with him a lot more & more reps at catching. Until Prielipp has proven himself I believed he was ranked too high. here he fell a lot.

[DocBauer]

I've kinda had my eye on Matthews since he was signed. Love the length and the control. He gets that 3rd pitch down, and the velocity up a little bit, I think he's a possible #3 rotation piece. Certainly a back end one.

Not a big SWR fan, though I wanted to be following 2022. He was rushed, IMO, beyond his readiness and also had his while 2021 messed up with the Olympics and trials and the such. He started to flash in 2022 and I thought we had a back end arm at the least. But the velocity is down after not being great to begin with and even his much better 2nd half in 2023, the BB were still high and the K per 9 still wasn't fantastic. Certainly not enough to offset the BB numbers.

I haven't had time to watch the video on him yet. I will very soon as it's on my "to do" list. I'm hoping to be proven wrong in 2024 and he takes a big step forward. Crossing my fingers. 

Prospect rankings are generally based on potential and not simply "what have you done for me lately" numbers. By that account, Prielipp belongs somewhere in the top 20, IMO. There's just so much potential in his arm that it oozes and scouts and teammates and everyone who's ever seen him comments on it. If he hadn't come to camp last season with flowing reports about his velocity and stuff, I would completely remove him from the top 20. Probably from any top 30. But just knowing that arm talent is still there waiting, I have no problem with his ranking at this time, but understand those who disagree. I may change my opinion this time next year.

But I'm confused about his latest surgery. The OP says it isn't TJ, but I am certain it was reported as TJ with the new brace they use.

Take everything I just said about Prielipp and double it for Canterino. He HAS thrown at the pro level and has looked beyond good. I'd never advocate surgery for anyone if not really necessary. But as an outsider looking in, it appears he was done a disservice based on caution that has slowed his career projection. I think his TJ should have been done a season earlier. Regardless, he's supposedly healthy. He's throwing high 90's again. He's not old. It's really just a question of delaying his debut by continuing down the path of a SP...and I'm not saying they are wrong...or getting his ML career going ASAP with a move to the pen.

I can see reasons for Canterino to be ranked even higher with his clean bill of health and seemingly close proximity to helping the club soon.

I'd keep Olivar as a catcher for as long as possible. He's got a lot of work to do regarding the nuancesnof the position and especially throwing. But with his bat, he only needs to be solid/average behind the plate to be a factor. The Jamie Cameron OP about him today indicates he's an even better overall hitter than his slash line conveys. Better than league average in most all hitting categories in a tough league to hit in. Makes me think of a lesser Arraez with more speed and pop, or perhaps a young Polanco. He's a really good prospect if he can catch. Probably a solid/good prospect if an OF and the power continues to develop.

[jorgenswest]

Posted this about SWR before I came to the minor league forum. It fits best here.

Woods-Richardson’s stuff+ numbers are pretty good. He has a lot of movement on his pitches.

I wonder if the movement on his pitches gave him a bigger disadvantage with the AAA electronic strike zone. There were a lot of problems last year in AAA with the electronic zone. Last year the ABS called strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back in AAA. Would pitches with more movement fall out of the zone before that midpoint or move into the zone after the zone after the midpoint? Did that disadvantage SWR more than others or at least did it take him longer to adjust to a 2D zone?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

There is a tremendous amount of potential in #16-20 this year, which bodes well for the strength of the entire system.  A few years back this could have been our #6-10.  If they can put injuries behind them, there are three pitchers here that have all sorts of potential.  The two youngsters seem more typical for this range -- young but off to really great starts in their career.  It could be fun to watch this group develop.  

[Seth Stohs]

Full Transparency... here is where I ranked these guys: 

Zebby Matthews: 22
Simeon Woods Richardson: NR
Ricardo Olivar: 20
Connor Prielipp: 21
Matt Canterino: 14

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Full Transparency... here is where ISWR  ranked these guys: 

Zebby Matthews: 22
Simeon Woods Richardson: NR
Ricardo Olivar: 20
Connor Prielipp: 21
Matt Canterino: 14

You don't think SWR is a top twenty prospect? Wow. 

[FlyingFinn]

Blow up the rankings. Gonzalez, just acquired from the Mariners has to be about #4 or #5.

[Danchat]

53 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Full Transparency... here is where I ranked these guys: 

Zebby Matthews: 22
Simeon Woods Richardson: NR
Ricardo Olivar: 20
Connor Prielipp: 21
Matt Canterino: 14

I have to agree with you on SWR, that second half sample size isn't enough to sway me and the drop in velocity is concerning. The inability to throw strikes and pitch that slow isn't gonna fly in the majors.

[mikelink45]

I am actually disappointed in SWR and not ready to put him on the top list.  I agree with Seth.  He needs to be consistent for a full season before I get excited about him again.

[jmlease1]

Canterino has everything except health. I keep wondering if the "Johan Plan" could work for him, where he spends a season or two in the bullpen maybe throwing 2 inning stints and then transitions back to starting? He has the pitches to be a serious, front-line starter. He hasn't had the health to be anything other than a dream. Rooting for the kid, hope he can finally get to really play pro ball.

This is a really interesting group. I'd be more excited about Olivar if people weren't already telling me "he ain't sticking at catcher, and probably will end up as a corner OF".

[roger]

Interesting report, Seth, thanks.

As I expect is the case with any Twins fan, it flat out hurts to read your report of Canterino and Prielipp.  We may never know, but both have what it takes to be a front line starter and maybe even that elusive ACE.  Maybe 2024 will be the year both get back on track.  Hopefully, we will see Canterino in Target Field before the summer is over with Prielipp joining him mid-2025.

[gman]

I see a lot of talent and potential in this first group. I could see 2 pitchers with the potential to be top end starters and another 2 who could get on the back end of a rotation or consistent relievers. I would like to see Prielipp and Canterino throwing elbows to make room at the front of the rotation during 2025.