Twins Video
Ricardo Olivar is the most intriguing Twins prospect you’re not talking about. I’m here to tell you why.
The Twins' 2019 international signing period is shaping up to be one of their most impactful in recent years. Emmanuel Rodriguez has established himself as a consensus top-100, borderline consensus top-50 prospect. Yennier Canó, despite uneven performances with the Twins, established himself with the Orioles as a dominant relief option. Scraping the bottom of the bonus barrel was Olivar, a then-17-year-old skinny Venezuelan prospect, who signed for just $20,000. Olivar is a prime example of the patience required when scouting and evaluating prospects, particularly those who sign at 16 or 17 years old.
Olivar struggled initially as a professional. In 2021, he hit .204/.339/.347 in a 34-game Rookie-level debut that didn’t do much to spark the imagination. Repeating that level in 2022, Olivar put it together, eviscerating opposing pitching for an unrecognizable .349/.442/.605 line, picking up FCL MVP on the way, and finishing the season in full-season ball with Fort Myers.
How did Olivar follow up an MVP short-season performance with his first full season in a pitcher-friendly league? With another robust offensive campaign. Splitting time between catcher (39 games) and center field (38 games), Olivar mashed his way to a .285/.403/.452 line, with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases.
Having an overview of Olivar’s outcomes for the 2023 season, let’s dive into the data to see what kind of an offensive profile he offers.
Olivar made much better swing decisions in 2023. He managed a 13.2% walk rate, and a 20.7% strikeout rate. These figures are both better than average for Low-A baseball; the strikeouts are close to five percentage points better. These solid outputs are supported by good bat-to-ball skills. He had a 76.3% contact rate (6.4% above level average). When contact was made, it was usually high-quality contact. Of qualified players at his level, Olivar was second in average exit velocity (89.5 mph) behind only Cam Collier (89.6), and tied for fourth in Barrel Rate, at 18.5%. (TruMedia defines barrel% as batted balls with an EV of 95 mph or higher and a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees.) We can see the quality of Olivar’s contact on the graphic below, with exit velocity plotted on the x-axis, and Barrel % on the y-axis.
.png.439f06cf42994fe26226362a5c511b11.png)
We know that Olivar has good bat-to-ball skills and is consistently making high-quality contact, but surely he expands the zone, or is overly aggressive at the plate, right? Not really. Olivar’s chase% was 23.9%, 4.7% less than average for Low-A hitters.
One aspect of prospect performance I track less frequently than ideally is various splits over time. This is another area where Olivar excels, and Twins fans should be encouraged by his steady 2023 improvement. Consider the following table tracking some of Olivar’s key metrics month by month at Fort Myers. Olivar simply got better and better throughout the course of the season. He chased less, made contact more, his average exit velocity even improved from 88.7 mph in April to 90.9 mph in August. His OPS month by month speaks to the incremental, cumulative improvements in other aspects of his offensive game.
|
Month |
Chase% |
Contact% |
OPS |
|
May |
28.5% |
74% |
.807 |
|
June |
23.7% |
74% |
.835 |
|
July |
23% |
79.1% |
.909 |
|
August |
21.2% |
78.3% |
.945 |
Olivar’s well-rounded offensive profile doesn’t even suffer from a heavy platoon disadvantage. Olivar is a lefty killer. His OPS against southpaws in 2023 was .952, and he draws significantly more walks off lefties. Despite this, he maintained solid production against righties, with a .277/.386/.439 line. There’s no significant difference in the amount of hard contact Olivar generates from lefties versus righties. It’s more that he is good against righties, and exceptional against lefties thus far in his professional career. The graphic below shows Olivar’s scatter chart by exit velocity, and boy, does he use the whole field well with his hardest hit batted balls.
Olivar’s barrel manipulation gives him good coverage throughout the plate, but, as you’d expect, there are a few blind spots. Olivar struggles most to drive pitches on the outer third of the plate. If we look at his splits for various pitch types, we can orient ourselves to another area for improvement, dealing with breaking pitches.
Olivar’s OPS on curveballs (.750), and sliders (.771) are around 150 points worse than any other pitch. His chase rate is much higher on breaking pitches, and his contact rate and quality of contact much lower. While his numbers aren’t drastic, recognizing spin will likely be an area of focus in 2024.
It’s worth spending a moment on Olivar’s baserunning and defense. He stole bases at a 92% clip in 2023, a useful skill if he can provide even modest returns with consistency. His defensive home needs clarifying, though. Unusually, Olivar spent most of his defensive time at catcher or in the outfield. Olivar has a strong arm, but the catching skills are fringy. While TruMedia liked his framing, particularly at the top of the zone (5.11 catcher framing runs above average in 39 games), controlling the run game and receiving skills are a work in progress. Given that he has an ideal build for a catcher, I’d guess the Twins maintain his defensive flexibility, but it's probably more sensible and realistic to view him as an outfielder long term.
Olivar should start 2024 in High-A Cedar Rapids. He’ll be 23 in August, marginally above the average age for hitters at the level. Prognosticating prospects is a tough business, but if he continues to hit, I’d bet he’s represented in Twins top 10 lists by the end of 2024.
Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
View Twins Top ProspectsFollow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- miracleb, DJL44, SotaSports in NM and 6 others
-
9
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now