The Best Twins Prospect You're Not Talking About

[Jamie Cameron]

A little-known, defensively versatile Venezuelan prospect started turning heads for the Twins in 2023. Who is he, and what is his outlook for 2024?

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ricardo Olivar is the most intriguing Twins prospect you’re not talking about. I’m here to tell you why. 

The Twins' 2019 international signing period is shaping up to be one of their most impactful in recent years. Emmanuel Rodriguez has established himself as a consensus top-100, borderline consensus top-50 prospect. Yennier Canó, despite uneven performances with the Twins, established himself with the Orioles as a dominant relief option. Scraping the bottom of the bonus barrel was Olivar, a then-17-year-old skinny Venezuelan prospect, who signed for just $20,000. Olivar is a prime example of the patience required when scouting and evaluating prospects, particularly those who sign at 16 or 17 years old.

Olivar struggled initially as a professional. In 2021, he hit .204/.339/.347 in a 34-game Rookie-level debut that didn’t do much to spark the imagination. Repeating that level in 2022, Olivar put it together, eviscerating opposing pitching for an unrecognizable .349/.442/.605 line, picking up FCL MVP on the way, and finishing the season in full-season ball with Fort Myers.

How did Olivar follow up an MVP short-season performance with his first full season in a pitcher-friendly league? With another robust offensive campaign. Splitting time between catcher (39 games) and center field (38 games), Olivar mashed his way to a .285/.403/.452 line, with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases. 

Having an overview of Olivar’s outcomes for the 2023 season, let’s dive into the data to see what kind of an offensive profile he offers.

Olivar made much better swing decisions in 2023. He managed a 13.2% walk rate, and a 20.7% strikeout rate. These figures are both better than average for Low-A baseball; the strikeouts are close to five percentage points better. These solid outputs are supported by good bat-to-ball skills. He had a 76.3% contact rate (6.4% above level average). When contact was made, it was usually high-quality contact. Of qualified players at his level, Olivar was second in average exit velocity (89.5 mph) behind only Cam Collier (89.6), and tied for fourth in Barrel Rate, at 18.5%. (TruMedia defines barrel% as batted balls with an EV of 95 mph or higher and a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees.) We can see the quality of Olivar’s contact on the graphic below, with exit velocity plotted on the x-axis, and Barrel % on the y-axis.

We know that Olivar has good bat-to-ball skills and is consistently making high-quality contact, but surely he expands the zone, or is overly aggressive at the plate, right? Not really. Olivar’s chase% was 23.9%, 4.7% less than average for Low-A hitters.

One aspect of prospect performance I track less frequently than ideally is various splits over time. This is another area where Olivar excels, and Twins fans should be encouraged by his steady 2023 improvement. Consider the following table tracking some of Olivar’s key metrics month by month at Fort Myers. Olivar simply got better and better throughout the course of the season. He chased less, made contact more, his average exit velocity even improved from 88.7 mph in April to 90.9 mph in August. His OPS month by month speaks to the incremental, cumulative improvements in other aspects of his offensive game.

Month	Chase%	Contact%	OPS
May	28.5%	74%	.807
June	23.7%	74%	.835
July	23%	79.1%	.909
August	21.2%	78.3%	.945

Olivar’s well-rounded offensive profile doesn’t even suffer from a heavy platoon disadvantage. Olivar is a lefty killer. His OPS against southpaws in 2023 was .952, and he draws significantly more walks off lefties. Despite this, he maintained solid production against righties, with a .277/.386/.439 line. There’s no significant difference in the amount of hard contact Olivar generates from lefties versus righties. It’s more that he is good against righties, and exceptional against lefties thus far in his professional career. The graphic below shows Olivar’s scatter chart by exit velocity, and boy, does he use the whole field well with his hardest hit batted balls.

Olivar’s barrel manipulation gives him good coverage throughout the plate, but, as you’d expect, there are a few blind spots. Olivar struggles most to drive pitches on the outer third of the plate. If we look at his splits for various pitch types, we can orient ourselves to another area for improvement, dealing with breaking pitches.

Olivar’s OPS on curveballs (.750), and sliders (.771) are around 150 points worse than any other pitch. His chase rate is much higher on breaking pitches, and his contact rate and quality of contact much lower. While his numbers aren’t drastic, recognizing spin will likely be an area of focus in 2024.

It’s worth spending a moment on Olivar’s baserunning and defense. He stole bases at a 92% clip in 2023, a useful skill if he can provide even modest returns with consistency. His defensive home needs clarifying, though. Unusually, Olivar spent most of his defensive time at catcher or in the outfield. Olivar has a strong arm, but the catching skills are fringy. While TruMedia liked his framing, particularly at the top of the zone (5.11 catcher framing runs above average in 39 games), controlling the run game and receiving skills are a work in progress. Given that he has an ideal build for a catcher, I’d guess the Twins maintain his defensive flexibility, but it's probably more sensible and realistic to view him as an outfielder long term.

Olivar should start 2024 in High-A Cedar Rapids. He’ll be 23 in August, marginally above the average age for hitters at the level. Prognosticating prospects is a tough business, but if he continues to hit, I’d bet he’s represented in Twins top 10 lists by the end of 2024.

All research assistance provided by TruMedia.

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[roger]

Very interesting read, Jamie.  Recall noticing his name often last summer when looking at daily box scores.  My biggest question is whether or not he can stick at catcher, even as a #2 guy.  Appreciated your comments that suggest that remains a question to be answered.  

There aren't a lot of catchers with good speed.  His 92% success rate stealing bases is excellent, however, it would have helped if you told us how many bags he stole.  92% on 11 attempts is a lot different than 92% on 44 attempts.

Another thought that crossed my mind when you mentioned he signed for $20K, was how little the Twins have gotten out of their International signings the past 20 years or so.  Yes, they had that huge year when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler.  They also hit the jackpot when signing Arraez for what was it, $40K?  But who else have they signed that has played more than a few games at Target Field?  Is there anyone?  I know there were a couple of Aussies a while back and Astudillo.  But none of those were around all that long.  Sure would be nice if ERod and maybe another couple of these recent signings actually made it. 

[jmlease1]

A prospect who plays Catcher and CF? I'm already intrigued. he definitely needs to be in Cedar Rapids this year, But this is essentially his "age 22" season, so he's not really behind the age curve much if at all. Quality hitting numbers for the FSL.

he should be fun to watch; if he can hit like this and play a premium defensive position then he'll jump up the ranks quickly.

[Jamie Cameron]

17 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

A prospect who plays Catcher and CF? I'm already intrigued. he definitely needs to be in Cedar Rapids this year, But this is essentially his "age 22" season, so he's not really behind the age curve much if at all. Quality hitting numbers for the FSL.

he should be fun to watch; if he can hit like this and play a premium defensive position then he'll jump up the ranks quickly.

Thanks for reading. I'd pump the brakes on C and CF. I think it's a corner spot, eventually.

[miracleb]

Love these type of articles Jamie!

Agree....a catcher AND centerfielder?  I watched the video......those legs look like a.......catcher!!
:)

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff, thanks!

[Guest]

Well done, thank you.

[Dman]

Olivar was in the top 3 at the FSL in BA, OBP and OPS and 5th in Slugging. He is a top performer just like Rosario and Rodriguez were in there leagues.  Would be real nice if he could stay behind the plate but his solid batting line should help him play where ever he fits best.

Really impressed with his approach and he looks like another stud bat in the system. If he can handle the cold weather he should do well at high A I will be more interested about how he handles AA where the breaking stuff is more refined.  If they want him work at catcher seems more likely he goes one level at a time but we will see.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I too found C and CF an interesting combination for a player. With a good strong arm RF would seem to make sense long term. 

[tony&rodney]

Excellent read. I haven't seen him play yet and was only been able to follow him statistically last season. 

You do an excellent job of showing Olivar's strengths. Enjoyed looking through the data. Thanks. 

[DocBauer]

Not to pour cold water on anyone's opinion, but in 2022 he played 11 games in CF and 9 in LF. In 2023 it was 3 games in CF and 36 games in LF. So I'm going to guess that is where they see him, OF wise, unless that was simply due to other CF options they preferred to watch play there.

Forgetting handedness, his AVG, OB, strike zone control, etc, sort of has me thinking Arraez-lite with more pop and speed, or perhaps a Polanco type of bat?

Very intriguing prospect. 22-23 at high A for 2024 isn't too bad, especially if he keeps hitting this way. Not uncommon for treams in the Midwest to start a little slow offensively and then heat up. Conversely, the Florida League has always been a tough place to hit. So wouldn't be surprised to see him start the upcoming season a little slow and then out produce his 2023 numbers.

I'd keep him at catcher for as long as possible, hoping he can refine the nuances of the position. But 13% caught stealing won't cut it unless he's outstanding in other areas.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, roger said:

Very interesting read, Jamie.  Recall noticing his name often last summer when looking at daily box scores.  My biggest question is whether or not he can stick at catcher, even as a #2 guy.  Appreciated your comments that suggest that remains a question to be answered.  

There aren't a lot of catchers with good speed.  His 92% success rate stealing bases is excellent, however, it would have helped if you told us how many bags he stole.  92% on 11 attempts is a lot different than 92% on 44 attempts.

Another thought that crossed my mind when you mentioned he signed for $20K, was how little the Twins have gotten out of their International signings the past 20 years or so.  Yes, they had that huge year when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler.  They also hit the jackpot when signing Arraez for what was it, $40K?  But who else have they signed that has played more than a few games at Target Field?  Is there anyone?  I know there were a couple of Aussies a while back and Astudillo.  But none of those were around all that long.  Sure would be nice if ERod and maybe another couple of these recent signings actually made it. 

Hey Roger,

He was 3-0 on SB in 2021.

He was 5-5 on SB in 2022.

And he was 12-1 on SB in 2023 per his Baseball Reference page.

[High heat]

If he can’t stick at catcher I am not sure he ever reaches the big leagues.  He Doesnt have big power numbers or great hit tool for a corner outfielder.  The bar for a solid hitting catcher is much lower. 
 

The uniquely of his skills are intriguing for a catcher would be great to see a catcher with a solid bat and speed on the bases with a big arm defensively behind the plate.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

Love these type of articles Jamie!

Agree....a catcher AND centerfielder?  I watched the video......those legs look like a.......catcher!!
:)

If he was "skinny" at 17 in 2019 to the home run video in 2023, I'm a bit worried he might have similar plate ( and I'm talking dinner ) issues as Miguel Sano did? Hope not as he certainly looks intriguing.

[Jamie Cameron]

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

Love these type of articles Jamie!

Agree....a catcher AND centerfielder?  I watched the video......those legs look like a.......catcher!!
:)

Really appreciate it. Love writing these. Trying to get as many out as possible before draft hybernation.

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article. All the research and stats are appreciated! I have to admit that although the name rang a bell, I couldn't have told you anything about Olivar previously. Good stuff!

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, roger said:

Very interesting read, Jamie.  Recall noticing his name often last summer when looking at daily box scores.  My biggest question is whether or not he can stick at catcher, even as a #2 guy.  Appreciated your comments that suggest that remains a question to be answered.  

There aren't a lot of catchers with good speed.  His 92% success rate stealing bases is excellent, however, it would have helped if you told us how many bags he stole.  92% on 11 attempts is a lot different than 92% on 44 attempts.

Another thought that crossed my mind when you mentioned he signed for $20K, was how little the Twins have gotten out of their International signings the past 20 years or so.  Yes, they had that huge year when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler.  They also hit the jackpot when signing Arraez for what was it, $40K?  But who else have they signed that has played more than a few games at Target Field?  Is there anyone?  I know there were a couple of Aussies a while back and Astudillo.  But none of those were around all that long.  Sure would be nice if ERod and maybe another couple of these recent signings actually made it. 

Sorry to nitpick, but Astudillo was with several other organizations before the Twins picked him up. I think Philadelphia was the first team to sign him, and then he was briefly with Atlanta and Arizona, before the Twins and Miami. He was in Japan last year, but as for this coming season, I haven't heard any news!

[roger]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Sorry to nitpick, but Astudillo was with several other organizations before the Twins picked him up. I think Philadelphia was the first team to sign him, and then he was briefly with Atlanta and Arizona, before the Twins and Miami. He was in Japan last year, but as for this coming season, I haven't heard any news!

Thanks, had forgotten that he came from elsewhere.  Further substantiates my belief that the Twins haven't gotten much from the International market.  When I see all these teams with several studs from Latin America, I just don't understand why the Twins haven't hit on more players who contribute?