More Marlins Info Now Out

[SteveLV]

I encourage interested parties to review the Marlins post on MLB Trade Rumors, and also the comments section which contains a long Blog post on a Marlins source (journalistic).

Essentially, they need MLB-ready help at SS and C, and their new GM is willing to move some of their shorter controlled SP. The new GM has recognized there is little to no help at those positions available in FA.

We have Vasquez, Farmer and Lee, assuming the Marlins consider Lee to be near MLB ready, that fit those needs.

So, we can provide players they should want.  The problem is salaries.  Vasquez and Farmer are not expensive, but not cheap either.

Luzardo is obvious target, but I wonder about Alcantara for the long run as well to give them cap relief and balance the salaries changing hands?  Would this Twins FO take the gamble on Alcantara?  They have done that previously with rehabbing pitchers, but this is on a different scale of risk.

Thoughts?  Does sound like they want some players from the Padres and have been talking to them already.

[JD-TWINS]

Making something happen to get Luzardo makes sense - can’t get that level guy for nothing, so if Lee is their desire at SS, Twins have to seriously consider! The Twins could offer some salary relief to help move Vazquez as part of the deal…..maybe $3m/year?Probably need to add another pitcher &/or prospect to make this happen.

Farmer - Vazquez - Festa - E. Rodriguez ……with Vazquez salary relief would be a potential deal Marlins may consider.

Alcantara is not worth the Twin’s efforts/$$$. No help (some cost) this year & then a “maybe” good year in ‘25 for $17.5M or near. We can’t afford to keep Farmer but we’d take on the same $$ or more this year to re-hab Alcantara? Doesn’t make sense.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I do think Luzardo should be the target here. Curious what Miami would think of Camargo as a catcher target? He certainly has power, and you could absolutely argue he is mlb ready. I would have to think Lee and Camargo would be more enticing than Lee and Vazquez for them, right?

Curious what else would need to be added. But I’d start with that and go from there. 

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do think Luzardo should be the target here. Curious what Miami would think of Camargo as a catcher target? He certainly has power, and you could absolutely argue he is mlb ready. I would have to think Lee and Camargo would be more enticing than Lee and Vazquez for them, right?

Curious what else would need to be added. But I’d start with that and go from there. 

Luzardo is target for sure.

Twins could offer some $$ relief in a Vazquez portion of deal - $3M/yr? Seems Marlins need a ready guy with MLB seasoning if they have a hole. Best mutual option.

They have 2 needs…….maybe it’s Camargo & they sign a FA like Cassilli for $2M for the catcher depth? Farmer is the stability and ready now guy for them……….We toss in E. Rodriguez and they can use him in CF at some point & get Chisholm back to 2B. Arraez goes to DH/1B rotation with Josh Bell……still playing a bit at 2B later & routinely, until Rodriguez is ready…….seems Festa would need to round out a deal or at least some pitching back to Miami?

……………

I really like Lee at 3B long-term (no trades) & Julien at 2B with Lewis (due to athleticism & flexibility) becoming the RH power bat in LF &/or at 1B that they seem to need……probably a ‘25 move, but with Wallner then in RF it sure smoothes out the rough edges in line-up and $$ issues.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Luzardo is target for sure.

Twins could offer some $$ relief in a Vazquez portion of deal - $3M/yr? Seems Marlins need a ready guy with MLB seasoning if they have a hole. Best mutual option.

They have 2 needs…….maybe it’s Camargo & they sign a FA like Cassilli for $2M for the catcher depth? Farmer is the stability and ready now guy for them……….We toss in E. Rodriguez and they can use him in CF at some point & get Chisholm back to 2B. Arraez goes to DH/1B rotation with Josh Bell……still playing a bit at 2B later & routinely, until Rodriguez is ready…….seems Festa would need to round out a deal or at least some pitching back to Miami?

……………

I really like Lee at 3B long-term (no trades) & Julien at 2B with Lewis (due to athleticism & flexibility) becoming the RH power bat in LF &/or at 1B that they seem to need……probably a ‘25 move, but with Wallner then in RF it sure smoothes out the rough edges in line-up and $$ issues.

But if you are Miami, and you are trading an ace level pitcher with 3 years of team control, you aren't at all going to want old/expensive free agents with minimal control coming back. They certainly also are not trading Jazz either, he is their face in many ways.

They aren't going to have any need for Vazquez or Farmer. They are going to want young/controllable talent. That is something the Twins have a lot of throughout their minors. I'd absolutely argue our #10 through #40 prospects are as strong as just about any team in baseball. 

[jorgenswest]

They want an upgrade from the or current shortstop Jon Berti. Berti does everything better than Farmer at a lower salary. He is a better hitter matching his bat against lefties and much better against right handed pitching. He had positive in every defensive metric at shortstop. He steals bases. They are both in decline and I would want to look for a Berti replacement also buy why would they turn to Farmer? They already have a Farmer that hits right handed pitching better and steals bases.

The Twins can’t compete with the Padres. They have a shortstop prospect better than Lee in Jackson Merrill. They have surplus shortstops at the major league level that have far more value than anyone the Twins have in Kim and Tatis Jr. They also have the best catching prospect in baseball in Ethan Salas and Campusano who is a comp to Jeffers. If the Padres are really interested the only Twin that can win the deal is Lewis.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They want an upgrade from the or current shortstop Jon Berti. Berti does everything better than Farmer at a lower salary. He is a better hitter matching his bat against lefties and much better against right handed pitching. He had positive in every defensive metric at shortstop. He steals bases. They are both in decline and I would want to look for a Berti replacement also buy why would they turn to Farmer? They already have a Farmer that hits right handed pitching better and steals bases.

The Twins can’t compete with the Padres. They have a shortstop prospect better than Lee in Jackson Merrill. They have surplus shortstops at the major league level that have far more value than anyone the Twins have in Kim and Tatis Jr. They also have the best catching prospect in baseball in Ethan Salas and Campusano who is a comp to Jeffers. If the Padres are really interested the only Twin that can win the deal is Lewis.

 

One could absolutely argue that Salas alone would be fair for Luzardo. He is THAT good of a prospect, and San Diego could even look dumb giving him up.

They certainly wouldn't move both Merrill and Salas in a package for one player. It'd have to be a lot more coming back.

Just my 2 cents. But yeah, Merrill would be a good starting point if Miami wanted to trade with San Diego for sure.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a VERY interesting topic, and something I see bubbling under the surface dialog while the remaining big dollar FA market continues to drag along.  Luzardo would be the top trade target for the Twins.  He checks all the boxes:  Young and controllable.  Talented!!  Left handed.  He won't come cheap.

The Marlins want to compete NOW.  The Braves and Phillies are part of their division and the Mets have UNLIMITED resources.  Still, they earned a Wild Card spot in the playoffs in 2023.  This is why they would be fine with acquiring Farmer and Vasquez.  They are just what they need in many respects.  Vasquez to handle a young and talented rotation.  Farmer to bring a solid glove and clutch hitting to the gaping hole they have at SS.  But those two guys could never get you near an acquisition like Luzardo.

This is where Alcantara comes in and this is where I will disagree with JD-TWINS, a guy I agree with about 90% of the time.  Alcantara is certainly worth the effort and the gamble.  He's needed in this deal because his negative value due to not pitching at all in 2024 after Tommy John surgery and the risk of paying him going forward brings the cost of Luzardo within reasonable limits for the Twins. 

I would gamble on paying Alcantara $9 million to rehab in 2024 and gladly pay a pitcher with his talent (former Cy Young winner) $17 million in 2025 and $17 million in 2026 (there is a CLUB option for $21 million in 2027).  A pitcher with his talent at a price like that, for his age 28 (not pitching) 29, 30 and a club option for age 31 years is a gamble worth taking.

Imagine the Twins young lineup, pretty much at VERY affordable salaries with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and eventually Jenkins.  maybe Miranda is still around.  I left off Emmanuel Rodriguez because you might need him to complete the deal.  Now project that lineup with a rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, and maybe Raya. You've now opened an extended window where the Twins could be MORE than competitive.

The Twins can shed some payroll by dealing Vasquez and Farmer.  But to entice Miami to part with Luzardo they will have to pick up some of this cash and still be willing to pay Alcantara $9 million to rehab.  A deal structured around sending Farmer and Vasquez as well as a prospect like Festa or Emm-Rod and accepting the risk of Alcantara does NOT include Kepler or Polanco.  They could still be traded to cut more payroll or kept on the team where a decision would be made at the deadline whether to keep them or deal them.  

I may take a dive on the BBTV site to see what a potential trade like this would actually look like.  I know some people dislike the site, and I agree it has some flaws, but it's at least some way to be reasonable when looking at a trade instead of expecting to trade Polanco straight up to Seattle for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.  

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is a VERY interesting topic, and something I see bubbling under the surface dialog while the remaining big dollar FA market continues to drag along.  Luzardo would be the top trade target for the Twins.  He checks all the boxes:  Young and controllable.  Talented!!  Left handed.  He won't come cheap.

The Marlins want to compete NOW.  The Braves and Phillies are part of their division and the Mets have UNLIMITED resources.  Still, they earned a Wild Card spot in the playoffs in 2023.  This is why they would be fine with acquiring Farmer and Vasquez.  They are just what they need in many respects.  Vasquez to handle a young and talented rotation.  Farmer to bring a solid glove and clutch hitting to the gaping hole they have at SS.  But those two guys could never get you near an acquisition like Luzardo.

This is where Alcantara comes in and this is where I will disagree with JD-TWINS, a guy I agree with about 90% of the time.  Alcantara is certainly worth the effort and the gamble.  He's needed in this deal because his negative value due to not pitching at all in 2024 after Tommy John surgery and the risk of paying him going forward brings the cost of Luzardo within reasonable limits for the Twins. 

I would gamble on paying Alcantara $9 million to rehab in 2024 and gladly pay a pitcher with his talent (former Cy Young winner) $17 million in 2025 and $17 million in 2026 (there is a CLUB option for $21 million in 2027).  A pitcher with his talent at a price like that, for his age 28 (not pitching) 29, 30 and a club option for age 31 years is a gamble worth taking.

Imagine the Twins young lineup, pretty much at VERY affordable salaries with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and eventually Jenkins.  maybe Miranda is still around.  I left off Emmanuel Rodriguez because you might need him to complete the deal.  Now project that lineup with a rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, and maybe Raya. You've now opened an extended window where the Twins could be MORE than competitive.

The Twins can shed some payroll by dealing Vasquez and Farmer.  But to entice Miami to part with Luzardo they will have to pick up some of this cash and still be willing to pay Alcantara $9 million to rehab.  A deal structured around sending Farmer and Vasquez as well as a prospect like Festa or Emm-Rod and accepting the risk of Alcantara does NOT include Kepler or Polanco.  They could still be traded to cut more payroll or kept on the team where a decision would be made at the deadline whether to keep them or deal them.  

I may take a dive on the BBTV site to see what a potential trade like this would actually look like.  I know some people dislike the site, and I agree it has some flaws, but it's at least some way to be reasonable when looking at a trade instead of expecting to trade Polanco straight up to Seattle for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.  

 

 

Just came here to say that expecting to get Alcantara AND Luzardo in one deal, that isn't related to fantasy baseball, couldn't at all be construed as reasonable. I mean, how in any way would the Marlins benefit from trading away 2 top of the line pitchers? 

[JD-TWINS]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is a VERY interesting topic, and something I see bubbling under the surface dialog while the remaining big dollar FA market continues to drag along.  Luzardo would be the top trade target for the Twins.  He checks all the boxes:  Young and controllable.  Talented!!  Left handed.  He won't come cheap.

The Marlins want to compete NOW.  The Braves and Phillies are part of their division and the Mets have UNLIMITED resources.  Still, they earned a Wild Card spot in the playoffs in 2023.  This is why they would be fine with acquiring Farmer and Vasquez.  They are just what they need in many respects.  Vasquez to handle a young and talented rotation.  Farmer to bring a solid glove and clutch hitting to the gaping hole they have at SS.  But those two guys could never get you near an acquisition like Luzardo.

This is where Alcantara comes in and this is where I will disagree with JD-TWINS, a guy I agree with about 90% of the time.  Alcantara is certainly worth the effort and the gamble.  He's needed in this deal because his negative value due to not pitching at all in 2024 after Tommy John surgery and the risk of paying him going forward brings the cost of Luzardo within reasonable limits for the Twins. 

I would gamble on paying Alcantara $9 million to rehab in 2024 and gladly pay a pitcher with his talent (former Cy Young winner) $17 million in 2025 and $17 million in 2026 (there is a CLUB option for $21 million in 2027).  A pitcher with his talent at a price like that, for his age 28 (not pitching) 29, 30 and a club option for age 31 years is a gamble worth taking.

Imagine the Twins young lineup, pretty much at VERY affordable salaries with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and eventually Jenkins.  maybe Miranda is still around.  I left off Emmanuel Rodriguez because you might need him to complete the deal.  Now project that lineup with a rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, and maybe Raya. You've now opened an extended window where the Twins could be MORE than competitive.

The Twins can shed some payroll by dealing Vasquez and Farmer.  But to entice Miami to part with Luzardo they will have to pick up some of this cash and still be willing to pay Alcantara $9 million to rehab.  A deal structured around sending Farmer and Vasquez as well as a prospect like Festa or Emm-Rod and accepting the risk of Alcantara does NOT include Kepler or Polanco.  They could still be traded to cut more payroll or kept on the team where a decision would be made at the deadline whether to keep them or deal them.  

I may take a dive on the BBTV site to see what a potential trade like this would actually look like.  I know some people dislike the site, and I agree it has some flaws, but it's at least some way to be reasonable when looking at a trade instead of expecting to trade Polanco straight up to Seattle for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.  

 

 

Now I’m confused, through my own fault of not following the Marlins situation closely enough. Author says they need a SS - a contributor says they have a guy named Berti that’s better than Farmer - you make a comment that they have a gaping hole at short. - ???

Also, I didn’t know Alcantara’s situation allows for control through ‘27. Thanks for that. I thought through ‘25……,,changes things! However, signing a guy that can’t help in ‘24 & costs $9M against ‘24 payroll is counter intuitive for sure. Could be a decent investment but it seems like a real stretch with $$ tight this year and for a club that’s ready to go deep in postseason.

Seems Woodruff would cost less and lose zero assets in this type of approach …….assuming he’d be reasonable in ‘24($5M) if offered a 3 year deal in the high teens for year’s 2 & 3.

I don’t see any scenario where we have enough trade assets to obtain both Luzardo & Alcantara……..(keeping Lewis/Jenkins) can’t see the latter being a salary reduction throw in. At some point it makes little sense to acquire Vazquez and then trade away 40-60% of that young pitching talent that needs molding. Would love Luzardo!! Getting Alcantara by himself as an investment makes sense but it seems they need to stabilize ‘24 staff first - right? Maybe rotation is what it is with current AAA depth?

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins can’t compete with the Padres. They have a shortstop prospect better than Lee in Jackson Merrill. They have surplus shortstops at the major league level that have far more value than anyone the Twins have in Kim and Tatis Jr. They also have the best catching prospect in baseball in Ethan Salas and Campusano who is a comp to Jeffers. If the Padres are really interested the only Twin that can win the deal is Lewis.

Ah, but what if we were to throw in a whole bunch of guys who aren't any good?

[Doctor Gast]

It has been rumored that MIA is looking to move Arraez because they can't afford to sign him to an extension. I put up a 3-way trade offer with SD. Arraez could be SD's Tony Gwinn's second coming. SD was poor at 2B, Kim is a much better SS than 2B man. Arraez for Kim.

Luzardo for Julien & Jeffers

To make up the difference for Arraez, Twins can move Salas (SS) back home to MIA where he does better & Schobel (SS) (Twins can also throw in Farmer) in exchange for trade bait for MLB ready Romo catcher (CO).

Jeffers has proven to me that he can't handle primary catching duties & Vazquez's hungry for primary catching duties. If we let Vazquez go (- trade value) & keep Jeffers it'll be '22 all over again. If we keep Vazquez & trade Jeffers (Jeffers trade value is high), Not only do we have a very good defensive catcher that's due to rebound offensively, we have a 2yr. mentor for Carmargo, (Romo & Carrigg via trade that can potentially be much better future catcher in a short amount of time) than Jeffers plus greatly increase our poor catching depth.

We will miss Julien's bat but that's what MIA needs for Luzardo, it's a fair trade-off.

This is a great opportunity if we react right,

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

But if you are Miami, and you are trading an ace level pitcher with 3 years of team control, you aren't at all going to want old/expensive free agents with minimal control coming back. They certainly also are not trading Jazz either, he is their face in many ways.

They aren't going to have any need for Vazquez or Farmer. They are going to want young/controllable talent. That is something the Twins have a lot of throughout their minors. I'd absolutely argue our #10 through #40 prospects are as strong as just about any team in baseball. 

Rating or arguing our #10-#40 prospects in system now or ever is a really vague exercise………..most guys that work in baseball would tell you those guys are all big maybes in any system.

There was no slant in my comments about Miami trading Chisholm. He had a step back offensively in CF…..maybe regressed to his norm? Anyway, I suggested they get Rodriguez from Twins as part of a deal and slot him in CF, allowing Chisholm to move back to a more comfortable position at 2B, as Rodriguez is ready.

As stated, offering $3M of annual assistance for Vazquez in nearly any trade he’s involved with. Farmer is around $6.5M I believe? So that’s, say $14M for two skilled veterans. MLB average salary is a touch over $5M for ‘24…..educated guess, up from $4.9M in ‘23. So they get a couple of proven solutions for $4M more than league average. Doesn’t seem ridiculous. It seems to come down to “how soon” do they need to fill the spots?

I don’t have a problem with Camargo……..no problem with Rodriguez …….no problem with Festa …………would prefer not moving Lee but nothing is free. Do they want somebody they know they can pencil into the line-up for sure, in January or do they want “upside”? I have great respect for the value Luzardo brings and understand Miami has the leverage!!

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

I really like Lee at 3B long-term (no trades) & Julien at 2B with Lewis (due to athleticism & flexibility) becoming the RH power bat in LF &/or at 1B that they seem to need……probably a ‘25 move, but with Wallner then in RF it sure smoothes out the rough edges in line-up and $$ issues.

That would be an awesome infield to watch.  I wouldn't mind Lewis at 2nd and Julien at first.  May make the defense really good.

[chpettit19]

If San Diego is involved and serious about getting Luzardo there's very little chance the Twins end up with him. They aren't trading Luzardo and Alcantara in the same deal. Assuming the idea that Alcantara has negative value right now (I don't think that's true) why would you use him to lower the package you could receive for Luzardo who's likely your best trade asset? If they're that tight on money that they need to trade them both they'd at least do it in separate deals to maximize the return for Luzardo while getting basically nothing in return for Alcantara. 

If Alcantara actually has negative value the Twins, or any team, should absolutely deal for him right now. Why are we still acting like TJS ends careers? Tyler Mahle just got 22 million for 2 years coming off TJS and he's nowhere near the pitcher Alcantara is. If they're willing to sell Alcantara for peanuts every team in baseball would be lined up at their door to take him off their hands.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

One could absolutely argue that Salas alone would be fair for Luzardo. He is THAT good of a prospect, and San Diego could even look dumb giving him up.

They certainly wouldn't move both Merrill and Salas in a package for one player. It'd have to be a lot more coming back.

Just my 2 cents. But yeah, Merrill would be a good starting point if Miami wanted to trade with San Diego for sure.

I don’t think they would move both or meant to imply it. My thought was that San Diego has so many guys that could be a headliner for this deal compared to the Twins. If San Diego is involved they need to be ready to part with Lewis. I would look elsewhere for pitching in that case. Three years of control is too expensive. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think they would move both or meant to imply it. My thought was that San Diego has so many guys that could be a headliner for this deal compared to the Twins. If San Diego is involved they need to be ready to part with Lewis. I would look elsewhere for pitching in that case. Three years of control is too expensive. 

It's possible, but you are mostly going by rankings compared to how teams view prospects/players. Merrill has played 45 games in AA in his career, and his numbers were more fine than great. Does Miami think he is MORE ready to help now than Lee, or even like him more than Lee long term? That's up to them.

Or if they really want Julien, who does SD have that's as good that has already been in the majors?

I'm only saying, don't compare just prospect rankings. A lot of what matters is fit and how much a front office values a player. That's all.

I'm not saying this to say that the Twins will be getting Luzardo or anyone. But I don't know that I'd say that San Diego 100%^ can get whoever they want while other teams can't.

[TopGunn#22]

This is not a fantasy baseball idea.  As we've all noted previously, if Miami is REALLY willing to move Arraez when they are already starved for offense to avoid paying him down the road they would certainly consider trading Alcantara when considering the future risk.

A lot of this comes down to whoever is willing to accept Alcantara at $9 million for 2024 and the risk of how he will come back in 2025 from TJ.  If it takes moving Alcantara and Luzardo to add offense while also retaining their best hitter (Arraez) of course they would do it.  Miami is loaded with pitching prospects--Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are already more highly prized than Luzardo.  Rogers, Meyer and Cabrera are on deck and Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers are as well.  

Here's a trade where the Twins slightly overpay just based on the values.  No money is being sent in this deal so the Twins are taking on all of Alcantara's current and future contract--$9 million for 2024 and the $17 million in 2025 & 2026 with the $21 million dollar team option in 2027.  Miami takes on Polanco for 2 years and Farmer for 2024 only.  About $16 million.  But they keep Arraez and add Jeffers, Polanco and Wallner to their lineup.  Twins sell high on Wallner, keep Kepler and get another year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.  We also don't touch Lewis, Julien or Lee and have the potential to have one heck of a rotation for 2024 and especially 2025 forward.  

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Sandy Alcantara	28	Majors	SP		Low	4	57	64.9	-7.9	-9.5	-7.9	-6.3
Jesus Luzardo	26	Majors	SP		Medium	3	91.3	26.1	65.4	52.3	65.4	78.4

Total Value:

57.50

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Kyle Farmer	33	Majors	UTIL	SS	Medium	1	5.4	6.6	-1.2	-1.5	-1.2	-1
Ryan Jeffers	27	Majors	C		Low	3	40	11.5	28.5	22.8	28.5	34.2
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Matt Wallner	26	Majors	OF	DH	Medium	6	43.6	20.4	23.1	18.5	23.1	27.8

Total Value:

59.80

[TopGunn#22]

Alcantara had  a negative value of minus 39.1 just last week.  His negative value is now just minus 7.9.  That necessitates the addition of Matt Wallner into this trade.  I went with Wallner in this deal because his value is at an all time high at 26 years old.  He's just this kind of power hitter Miami needs.  Young and controllable.  At 20 years old I thing Emm-Rod has a greater upside and I said on TD earlier this year that I would NOT trade him until I gave him 2024 in St. Paul to show me what he's got.  

The Twins roll with Vasquez and Camargo in 2024 at catcher.  

If it works out well and the OF of Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Kirilloff, etc...needs a jolt and Emm-Rod is tearing up AAA maybe he's up by August 1st.  Talented pitching is extremely expensive.  The Twins are giving up a LOT in this trade.  But it's a risk I'd be willing to take to have a rotation that includes Luzardo and Alcantara.  Even if I have to wait a year to see Alcantara in my rotation.  Could San Diego or someone else beat this?  Who knows?  But I'd make this offer and find out.  

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Alcantara had  a negative value of minus 39.1 just last week.  His negative value is now just minus 7.9.  That necessitates the addition of Matt Wallner into this trade.  I went with Wallner in this deal because his value is at an all time high at 26 years old.  He's just this kind of power hitter Miami needs.  Young and controllable.  At 20 years old I thing Emm-Rod has a greater upside and I said on TD earlier this year that I would NOT trade him until I gave him 2024 in St. Paul to show me what he's got.  

The Twins roll with Vasquez and Camargo in 2024 at catcher.  

If it works out well and the OF of Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Kirilloff, etc...needs a jolt and Emm-Rod is tearing up AAA maybe he's up by August 1st.  Talented pitching is extremely expensive.  The Twins are giving up a LOT in this trade.  But it's a risk I'd be willing to take to have a rotation that includes Luzardo and Alcantara.  Even if I have to wait a year to see Alcantara in my rotation.  Could San Diego or someone else beat this?  Who knows?  But I'd make this offer and find out.  

Teams don't use BTV to decide on value. Alcantara won the Cy Young 2 years ago, is 28 years old, and never tops 21 mil in annual cost over the next 4 years while much lesser pitchers are getting much more than that. Lucas Giolito just got 19.5 per year while Alcantara is making 17 each of the next 2 years. Tyler Glasnow is a much bigger injury risk and he just got 27+ per year. Frankie Montas didn't make a start last year and just got 16 guaranteed with a 20 mil option for next year. According to your trade above the Twins could get Alcantara plus a "6 value" player for Kyle Farmer. If the Twins can get Alcantara, Dax Fulton, and Joe Mack for Kyle Farmer they should do that before the clock hits noon in MN today.

[cmoss84]

I see Gary Sanchez signing with the Marlins...

[Twinsrtheworst]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that expecting to get Alcantara AND Luzardo in one deal, that isn't related to fantasy baseball, couldn't at all be construed as reasonable. I mean, how in any way would the Marlins benefit from trading away 2 top of the line pitchers? 

Agreed...especially for Vazquez, Farmer and Festa as suggested.

[tony&rodney]

Varland is my pitcher of choice.

[nicksaviking]

https://theathletic.com/5250968/2024/02/05/rosenthal-zack-greinke-oakland-athletics-mlb/

Still looking for a shortstop, and have I got a deal for you!

[Mike Sixel]

On 1/25/2024 at 8:09 AM, Doctor Gast said:

It has been rumored that MIA is looking to move Arraez because they can't afford to sign him to an extension. I put up a 3-way trade offer with SD. Arraez could be SD's Tony Gwinn's second coming. SD was poor at 2B, Kim is a much better SS than 2B man. Arraez for Kim.

Luzardo for Julien & Jeffers

To make up the difference for Arraez, Twins can move Salas (SS) back home to MIA where he does better & Schobel (SS) (Twins can also throw in Farmer) in exchange for trade bait for MLB ready Romo catcher (CO).

Jeffers has proven to me that he can't handle primary catching duties & Vazquez's hungry for primary catching duties. If we let Vazquez go (- trade value) & keep Jeffers it'll be '22 all over again. If we keep Vazquez & trade Jeffers (Jeffers trade value is high), Not only do we have a very good defensive catcher that's due to rebound offensively, we have a 2yr. mentor for Carmargo, (Romo & Carrigg via trade that can potentially be much better future catcher in a short amount of time) than Jeffers plus greatly increase our poor catching depth.

We will miss Julien's bat but that's what MIA needs for Luzardo, it's a fair trade-off.

This is a great opportunity if we react right,

Jeffers put up the 8th highest WAR among catchers last year (while playing less than most starters), and he's easily replaced and has shown he can't handle catching? 

Julien is in the top 10 of 2B if he plays 140 games. And you're just going to give that up and replace him with whom?

I just don't understand where you are coming from. 

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jeffers put up the 8th highest WAR among catchers last year (while playing less than most starters), and he's easily replaced and has shown he can't handle catching? 

Julien is in the top 10 of 2B if he plays 140 games. And you're just going to give that up and replace him with whom?

I just don't understand where you are coming from. 

I could begrudgingly be talked into giving up Julien for a top end pitcher, but I don't think they'd have to since is Lee still hitting the prospect charts so high and being capable of playing SS. And Julien is my second favorite Twin right now, I don't say that lightly.

I like Jeffers and wouldn't move him. Now at least. If the young guys in the system are killing it and knocking on the door, I may consider next year. But Jeffers gets no league wide buzz; perhaps there's some skepticism after a slow 2021-22 seasons, but I think the team would actually be selling low on him now. Even if 2024 is merely good, and not as great as 2023, I think his value goes through the roof. But then again, that could make him untouchable for the Twins.

But if they got one more controllable top end pitcher now, the top four rotation spots should be set for the foreseeable future and they can then supplement as needed with the high ceiling prospect arms when needed.

[laloesch]

On 1/25/2024 at 10:13 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

This is a VERY interesting topic, and something I see bubbling under the surface dialog while the remaining big dollar FA market continues to drag along.  Luzardo would be the top trade target for the Twins.  He checks all the boxes:  Young and controllable.  Talented!!  Left handed.  He won't come cheap.

The Marlins want to compete NOW.  The Braves and Phillies are part of their division and the Mets have UNLIMITED resources.  Still, they earned a Wild Card spot in the playoffs in 2023.  This is why they would be fine with acquiring Farmer and Vasquez.  They are just what they need in many respects.  Vasquez to handle a young and talented rotation.  Farmer to bring a solid glove and clutch hitting to the gaping hole they have at SS.  But those two guys could never get you near an acquisition like Luzardo.

This is where Alcantara comes in and this is where I will disagree with JD-TWINS, a guy I agree with about 90% of the time.  Alcantara is certainly worth the effort and the gamble.  He's needed in this deal because his negative value due to not pitching at all in 2024 after Tommy John surgery and the risk of paying him going forward brings the cost of Luzardo within reasonable limits for the Twins. 

I would gamble on paying Alcantara $9 million to rehab in 2024 and gladly pay a pitcher with his talent (former Cy Young winner) $17 million in 2025 and $17 million in 2026 (there is a CLUB option for $21 million in 2027).  A pitcher with his talent at a price like that, for his age 28 (not pitching) 29, 30 and a club option for age 31 years is a gamble worth taking.

Imagine the Twins young lineup, pretty much at VERY affordable salaries with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and eventually Jenkins.  maybe Miranda is still around.  I left off Emmanuel Rodriguez because you might need him to complete the deal.  Now project that lineup with a rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack, and maybe Raya. You've now opened an extended window where the Twins could be MORE than competitive.

The Twins can shed some payroll by dealing Vasquez and Farmer.  But to entice Miami to part with Luzardo they will have to pick up some of this cash and still be willing to pay Alcantara $9 million to rehab.  A deal structured around sending Farmer and Vasquez as well as a prospect like Festa or Emm-Rod and accepting the risk of Alcantara does NOT include Kepler or Polanco.  They could still be traded to cut more payroll or kept on the team where a decision would be made at the deadline whether to keep them or deal them.  

I may take a dive on the BBTV site to see what a potential trade like this would actually look like.  I know some people dislike the site, and I agree it has some flaws, but it's at least some way to be reasonable when looking at a trade instead of expecting to trade Polanco straight up to Seattle for George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.  

 

 

This.  I've been advocating the same thing.  I think Luzardo is worth pursing but ultimately, the price will probably be much too high for the Twin's tastes.  Alcantara on the other hand might be a bit less considering he's not going to be available in 2024.  This would be more of a long term move than an immediate impact one, but I think the Twins still need to find another long-term starter.  Anthony DeSclafani is not a long-term solution.  

I still think it's gonna take one of their better prospects to get either one.  The question is who are the Twins willing to give up out of Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and David Festa? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

This.  I've been advocating the same thing.  I think Luzardo is worth pursing but ultimately, the price will probably be much too high for the Twin's tastes.  Alcantara on the other hand might be a bit less considering he's not going to be available in 2024.  This would be more of a long term move than an immediate impact one, but I think the Twins still need to find another long-term starter.  Anthony DeSclafani is not a long-term solution.  

I still think it's gonna take one of their better prospects to get either one.  The question is who are the Twins willing to give up out of Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and David Festa? 

Not Lewis or Jenkins. I think any of the others would be available based on the return. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I could begrudgingly be talked into giving up Julien for a top end pitcher, but I don't think they'd have to since is Lee still hitting the prospect charts so high and being capable of playing SS. And Julien is my second favorite Twin right now, I don't say that lightly.

I like Jeffers and wouldn't move him. Now at least. If the young guys in the system are killing it and knocking on the door, I may consider next year. But Jeffers gets no league wide buzz; perhaps there's some skepticism after a slow 2021-22 seasons, but I think the team would actually be selling low on him now. Even if 2024 is merely good, and not as great as 2023, I think his value goes through the roof. But then again, that could make him untouchable for the Twins.

But if they got one more controllable top end pitcher now, the top four rotation spots should be set for the foreseeable future and they can then supplement as needed with the high ceiling prospect arms when needed.

I could see trading Julien for an elite pitcher with a few years of control, given they have Gordon and Lee.... But I'd be holding my breath the whole time. 

[stringer bell]

The Marlins are reportedly interested in Gio Urshela. Coming into ‘22, I thought Gio might end up being the Twins primary shortstop. Would the Fish consider him for that role? I wish Gio the best. I’ve never heard one negative about him as a person or teammate, but I don’t know if he’s a fit in Miami.