Sorting Through Current Bullpen Options for the 2024 Twins

[Nick Nelson]

During a mostly inactive offseason, the Twins front office has brought in a number of relief arms, adding to the spring training pool from which they'll shape their Opening Day bullpen.

Can they extract enough quality from their quantity of relief options?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, William Purnell, Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The bullpen was not a strength, on balance, for the Twins last year. For the season, they ranked 15th in ERA, 16th in FIP and 21st in fWAR. Not a disaster by any means, but far from elite. 

Emilio Pagán was a big part of the reason Minnesota's relief corps was successful, to the extent it was. Now he's gone, having signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Reds. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production while also improving the overall quality of the unit. As usual, their front office will aim to do so without making major investments. 

Instead, they'll gather a wide assortment of arms in spring training–many of them non-roster invites–with hopes of whittling down to a group capable of consistently protecting leads throughout the season. The stakes are high for a team that is favored to win the division and expected to contend for a championship. Few things are more painful than a great team sabotaged by a bad bullpen.

Fortunately, the Twins have a solid foundation at the back end, and numerous interesting pieces in the mix to build around them with. For what it's worth, projection systems like ZiPS at FanGraphs forecast the Minnesota bullpen as above-average, even with the lack of impact additions. 

With the start of spring training now less than a month away, here's a tiered overview of the relievers that figure to be competing for spots in the Opening Day bullpen. This is not an exhaustive list and it's obviously subject to change based on comings and goings over the next several weeks, but I think we can start to get a solid handle on how this unit will take shape.

Let's start with that back-end foundation, which would be the envy of many teams around the league.

The Locks
These four incumbents are all but certain to be key parts of the Twins bullpen heading into thee season, so long as they are healthy at the end of spring training.

Jhoan Duran: One of the best closers in the American League and the premier centerpiece of Minnesota's bullpen. As long as he's healthy and doing his thing it'll be tough for the Twins bullpen to be downright bad.

Griffin Jax: Was looking the part as a primary setup man before enduring some late-season struggles (5.57 ERA in August and September). Bounced back in the playoffs and should be lined up as a high-leverage fixture once again. 

 Caleb Thielbar: The inspiring veteran leader of the bullpen deservingly scored a career-high payday in arbitration. He's been consistently excellent since reviving his career in 2020, with a 3.21 ERA in 174 innings. Can he keep the improbable run going at age 37? 

Brock Stewart: He was the Twins' best reliever, when healthy. Better than Duran even. The question is, and always has been, how many bullets he's got. Stewart presents an extremely volatile aspect of the team's bullpen outlook: their upside really hinges on his durability, and historically that's been a losing proposition.

Almost Locks
Each of these three hurlers has something to prove, but if they look good in spring training action they've got the inside track.

Jorge Alcala: His new contract includes a club option for 2025, so clearly the Twins see a potential future here. Not hard to see why; Alcala throws fire when healthy. But he's totaled less than 20 innings in the majors over the past two seasons. Can he really be counted on?

Kody Funderburk: He was impressive enough in a late-season audition (0.75 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 12 innings) to warrant a spot on the first-round playoff roster. It's safe to say Funderburk is a frontrunner to make the pen as a second lefty.

Josh Staumont: He signed a big-league contract in late December, having caught Minnesota's attention with his years of success in the Kansas City bullpen. Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, his outlook is uncertain, but if he's throwing well in March the 30-year-old should get a shot.

Wild Cards
I wouldn't consider any of these guys favorites to make the Opening Day bullpen, at this point, but I'd say they are each in position to get there based on developments in camp. Each one has intriguing upside–and in one case we've already seen it.

Louie Varland: We already know Varland is capable of being a lights-out reliever, because last September served as a proof-of-concept. I don't think he or the Twins are ready to commit him to that role quite yet, and right now it's hardly even an option since he's one of their top five starters. 

Matt Canterino: Finally healthy after injuries limited him to 85 total innings since being drafted in 2019. The Twins claim they still view him as a starter, but I'm dubious. His stuff might be the best in the organization, and I think the club will be eager to unleash it in a fast-tracked relief role if he looks healthy and strong in spring action. Canterino has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA and 13.8 K/9 rate in the minors.

Jordan Balazovic: He's out of options, which might give the Twins some compulsion to carry him out of camp given the factors in play (big righty, former top prospect, mid-90s fastball). You don't necessarily want to give up on a talent like this for nothing. But the 25-year-old did himself no favors in a brutal 2023 campaign. He's gonna need to earn it.

Simeon Woods Richardson: Like Canterino and Balazovic, Woods Richardson is already on the 40-man roster, giving him an edge over many below. His stock has dropped in a big way following a hugely discouraging age-23 season, but if he and the Twins decide to fully commit to a relief role–dropping a pitch or two, maximizing his effort in short stints–SWR could quickly put himself back on the radar. 

Hobie Harris: He might be more accurately categorized in the "longshots" group below. But I feel like Harris, who signed a minor-league deal last week, has a bit of an advantage over others. He's got MLB experience, he's 30, and the Twins are really high on his splitter as a weapon.

Longshots
All these guys have a chance, but they would likely need to make a really strong impression in spring training to overcome others and earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.

Brent Headrick: The left-hander threw 25 innings in relief for the Twins last year. As a southpaw who can get some strikeouts and provide some length, he's a nice depth piece to have on hand, but not much more.

Ryan Jensen: Claimed off waivers earlier this month, Jensen is still acclimating to pitching as a reliever after failing to pan as a starter. He's got a powerful arsenal that the Twins will likely aim to tweak in some ways. If he can start finding the zone with some regularly in exhibition action, it's not unthinkable he could sneak onto the roster.

Cole Sands: A known commodity, Sands has made 26 appearances in the majors over the past couple seasons, amounting to a 4.99 ERA. Like Headrick, he's more of a depth piece, but his breaking ball shows the makings of a legitimate out pitch. I don't have to squint too hard to see Sands being an impact reliever but it might be hard to convincingly make that case in March.

Josh Winder: Winder is in a similar boat to Sands–he's got MLB experience, he's on the 40-man roster, and he's got some pitches that inspire confidence. But until he can find a way to make his fastball usable (opponents hit .429 with a .786 SLG against it last year), Winder won't be a legit bullpen option. 

A.J. Alexy: The righty has been brought in by the Twins in two consecutive offseasons, most recently on a minor-league contract, so clearly they see something they like in him. His extreme control issues over the past couple years (he issued 41 walks in 21 innings at Triple-A last year) will be a lot to overcome, so he seems like more of a long-term project.

Ronny Henriquez: He struggled mightily in Triple-A last year and was removed from the 40-man roster afterward, but returned to the organization on a minor-league deal. Henriquez needs to rebuild some confidence by throwing strikes and getting on track, but he's only 23 and has a solid repertoire.

What would your preferred bullpen look like, if you had to pick eight names today? Let's hear your thoughts on the bullpen outlook in the comments.

View full article

[Greglw3]

I think Jenson is actually the top guy in his group with Henriquez second (remembering his strong late season MLB stint 2 years ago).

They’ll almost certainly have Harris throwing a high % of splitters and it may work.

I’d prefer Varland in the bullpen. If you have an impact reliever, why move him to starter where he’s been unproven - much less effective.

I’m not sure about SWR in the pen, I think you have more insight, but I’m still pretty high on him developing into a decent to above average pitcher. Maybe as a starter. A cool scenario would be for SWR to win the 5th starter job and Varland serve around Stewart and Duran as an impenetrable wall when Twins have leads to protect.

Fingers crossed on Staumont, could be a big payoff, if healthy. Alcala is the big ?.

I wish we could get Arraez back and I’d play him at 1B w Julien full time at 2nd. What a 1-2 they would be. I’m more than willing to move Kepler and Polanco and even Larnach. I think Martin is about ready to play LF or CF with Buxton (backups Castro and Gordon) in CF and Wallner in RF. Improve the team speed.

[Otwins]

Health is going to make a couple of the decisions but if Alcala and Staumont are healthy I think they are in. Throw in Funderburk with your four locks and I will take Ryan Jensen as number 8. Looks like on paper that they have some depth but that always seems to evaporate. Good Article

 

[nicksaviking]

I think Staumont's option makes him less likely to break camp.

Actually, I think all the new additions are unlikely to break camp with the team. Staumont, Harris, Jensen and Alexy have awful control problems. Bringing all of these guys in is puzzling because currently all of them are too wild to hand a bullpen spot too unless the Twins think there is some kind of mechanism to fix this.

As such, I don't think whatever this mechanism is is simple enough to cure these guys in spring training alone. I think they all go to St. Paul to sink or swim with whatever this crazy plan is. Most won't want to hear this, but I think Sands, Winder, Headrick, Balazovic and even Henriquez are more likely than these guys.

[Brandon]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think Staumont's option makes him less likely to break camp.

Actually, I think all the new additions are unlikely to break camp with the team. Staumont, Harris, Jensen and Alexy have awful control problems. Bringing all of these guys in is puzzling because currently all of them are too wild to hand a bullpen spot too unless the Twins think there is some kind of mechanism to fix this.

As such, I don't think whatever this mechanism is is simple enough to cure these guys in spring training alone. I think they all go to St. Paul to sink or swim with whatever this crazy plan is. Most won't want to hear this, but I think Sands, Winder, Headrick, Balazovic and even Henriquez are more likely than these guys.

I think the Twins are hoping just one of them finds their control.  There is really only one spot open in the pen unless there are injuries.  I think the strategy is if the Twins can develop one of the flame throwers into a dominant reliever, they got one for a fraction of their worth to the team.  if they develop 2 all the better.  I think the Twins are hoping this is the low-cost way to getting a dominant reliever on the cheap and have them all set by the all-star break or by August anyways so they have time to show they are ready to dominate for us in the playoffs.

I see the pen as:

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Theilbar, Alcala, Funderburk, 

I think Winder has a likely one of the last two with the last spot a free for all.  I think it may not go to the best pitcher but the one they can work with and develop the best in that slot.

 

[mnfireman]

Some teams use their starting pitching prospects in the BP early in their careers to acclimate them to MLB in low leverage situations, setting them up for success so to speak. Most of these types of players have nothing more to prove in the minors, and are then stretched back out to be a starter again the following off-season. I think Varland may be counted on to be a starter this season, but I think Canterino, SWR, Balazovick, Headrick and later in the season Festa, Lewis and maybe Raya could be tried in this role.

Some of them have already been given a shot and some of them may be counted on this season, but that is the route I would try. It may or may not work out, but sooner or later these guys have to show what they got.

[Rosterman]

IF Alcala can come back. He ahs the stuff to be...say...another Jesse Crain, perhaps?

Henriquez, Woods Richardson - both have youth on their side. Both may best be bets for the pen.

Headrick needs a role determination. He shows signs of being a lefty who can give you 2-3+ innings, possibly. If you ever need an opener, he could fill that bill, too. I imagine the Twins will continue to stretch him as a starter. But after some time in the majors, look for him to be...hungry.

Winder will also start in the rotation of St. Paul and be a possible depth piece. I'm not sure the ultimate status of Cole Sands. Interesting choices for the Twins to make on many an arm. Do you take Varland, and ask him to throw his best 20-35 pitches and get a solid inning, or have him work as a rotation arm. We saw how much better Jax worked out of the pen. With Jax, you can't bring him in with a runner on base (no 10th innings) as he will logically put at least a base runner on the paths more often than not, as well as another ball in good play. And though I hope Jax would be a one-time-thru-the-order guy in long relief, it didn't happen, as well as pitching in back-to-back games wasn't his overall strength.

The joy is that the Twins (unless they end up resigning Odorizzi) have a slew of rotation arms who will get the team thru the 5th inning at worst, and push towards the 7th.

 

[Major League Ready]

I think there are 6 players that are essentially locks at this time.  Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Alcala and Funderburk.  Who is going to beat them out based on spring training?  I would take Staumont out of this category only because of the uncertainty that accompanies thoracic outlet surgery.  

Varland is the wildest of the wildcards.  He is the next best option but he is also the next best option in the rotation at this point.  Hopefully, the Twins pick up a good SP and Varland is in the role Ober played in 2023.
I don’t think Sands, Winder or even Balazovic are longshots.  Any of them would be fine holding down the last spot in the BP to start out the year.  Spring training might actually be a competition for a couple spots.  

Canterino and SWR are high upside guys that they are going to want to nurture in the minors. SWR still needs development and I would think the team wants that done at the Milb level.  Canterino does not have much left to prove at the Milb level but he also has not seen much game action in a long time. Letting him prepare for a couple months at AAA seems like the prudent route.  
 

[mikelink45]

I expect this to change before the season.  It is too early to say that Stewart will repeat his success or that Griffin has rediscovered his role. 

BPs are so erratic I cannot project success or failure, but I am not inspired by the final lists in this essay.

[saviking]

Winder was such a promising young pitcher. I'm hoping they can work with his mechanics or pitch mix to get him back on track ..

[wabene]

5 minutes ago, saviking said:

Winder was such a promising young pitcher. I'm hoping they can work with his mechanics or pitch mix to get him back on track ..

He's ditching his four seam fastball, which got absolutely clobbered, and working on a two seam sinker. Might work. 

[twinsfansd]

I think there will need to be options to give the bullpen some length. Paddock for sure, and possibly Varland will need to have innings limited, so will need to have guys piggy back with them at times. I think this will need to be several guys with options available to move back and forth to St. Paul. Winder, Sands, SWR, Canterino, Headrick.

[4twinsJA]

If Varland not in rotation to start year, will be at AAA and remain stretched out to be a starter. A lot of uncertainty after Varland for SP depth. I would say Staumont needs another category- Lock if healthy. If Staumont has option, can see him starting season in AAA. Given 4 locks and Alcala, Funderburk, and can't see SWR starting season in BP either, too young and plenty of potential yet as SP. Canterino needs innings before getting shot at MLB, so another unlikely candidate. Those signed to minor league contracts unless lights out in spring training, will need to prove it at AAA. Henriquez, Alexy, Harris. That leaves 2 BP spots for the other 5 pitchers, Balazovic if pitches well in spring training should get a spot since needs to be on roster to start season or DFA'd/released, looks like a likely candidate. Sands would be a good candidate, started last year on roster. So I have 4 locks, Alcala, Funderburk, Balazovic, and Sands.

[jorgenswest]

17 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Emilio Pagán was a big part of the reason Minnesota's relief corps was successful, to the extent it was. Now he's gone, having signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Reds. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production while also improving the overall quality of the unit. As usual, their front office will aim to do so without making major investments

Emilio Pagán was great unless it was high leverage. He was great when the bases were empty. They are losing that production. His OPS against in high leverage situations was .828. His OPS against with runners on base was .770. One might argue that it was random variation due to small sample but it fits his career trend of struggling in high leverage or with runners on base. Those two numbers were very close to his career number in those situations. 

The Twins are tasked with replacing his production. Isn’t it mostly about innings? Will giving up a few more runs in lower leverage situations impact their overall record?

I think his absence  creates an opportunity. The Twins need another pitcher they can count on in high leverage. Pagán wasn’t that guy. That needs to be their focus. Most of that long list of relievers will get major league innings this year. Which pitchers in that list will earn those high leverage opportunities where Pagán over his career has failed?

[DocBauer]

I don't expect everyone to be perfect all the time, but I'm very comfortable with the back 4. I know Thielbar is getting a little older, but his velocity was a high or higher than ever. Only the oblique injury and then maybe coming back too soon really slowed him. I'm betting on one more good year for sure.

If you look at what Funderburk has done the past couple of years, and in his brief MLB debut, it's hard not to be at least a little excited that he can be a reliable part of the pen.

And while I know it's been 2yrs since we saw a fully healthy and productive Alcala who was looking like he had figured it out, he does appear 100% again, has looked good this winter, and he's now tasked with being a middle man. My hunch is he makes it.

I'm not in favor of Varland to the pen due to depth and his potential as a SP, at this time. I'm mixed on Canterino, but am thinking the pen is the way to go. But right out of ST??

But no matter how positive I may generally feel about the options here, I could REALLY be positive if they had that ONE MORE ARM I've mentioned before. Via trade, smart FA pickup, or smart bounceback arm, the back end of the pen might be awesome if they could find that one arm. I don't have a lot of optimism about Staumont, at least initially. I think him being ready day one following his surgery might be asking too much.

I'm very much in favor of the approach of adding arms to audition like they are, as they have done previously. It can pay huge dividends. It's how they got Thielbar and Stewart in the first place. And they could have had Hoffman from the Phillies if they had been smart enough to keep him.

I like the number of options to work with, sort through, and offer depth pieces. The last 2 spots appear to have "possibilities" that could end up paying off.

When the FO finally gets around to making moves...and they will...and the smoke clears, I really hope they've found the right move to add that one good, solid, proven, reliable arm to the back end of the pen. If that happens, oh boy, the 2024 pen could be both excellent AND deep.

 

[Doctor Wu]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:46 AM, Rosterman said:

IF Alcala can come back. He ahs the stuff to be...say...another Jesse Crain, perhaps?

Ah, Jesse Crain is a name I haven't thought of in many, many years! Interesting comparison. But hey, Jesse had a few good years in the bullpen, so I'd certainly accept performance of that quality. 

[DJL44]

On 1/14/2024 at 7:51 PM, Greglw3 said:

If you have an impact reliever, why move him to starter where he’s been unproven - much less effective.

Scarcity. It's really hard to find starting pitchers and they're incredibly expensive.

[DJL44]

On 1/14/2024 at 8:19 PM, Brandon said:

I think it may not go to the best pitcher but the one they can work with and develop the best in that slot.

The Twins are the favorite to win the division. AAA is for pitcher development. Find another free agent if the best they can do with that slot is throw spaghetti at the wall.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are the favorite to win the division. AAA is for pitcher development. Find another free agent if the best they can do with that slot is throw spaghetti at the wall.

It’s the 8th reliever slot.  The last man in the pen is used mostly for saving the good pitchers in blow outs (wins and loses). If there was ever a situation to bring in a player to develop that is it.  

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It’s the 8th reliever slot.  The last man in the pen is used mostly for saving the good pitchers in blow outs (wins and loses). If there was ever a situation to bring in a player to develop that is it.  

Great idea. Give that spot to Funderburk and make sure there are 7 other relievers they can count on.