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Emilio Pagán was a big part of the reason Minnesota's relief corps was successful, to the extent it was. Now he's gone, having signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Reds. The Twins are tasked with replacing his production while also improving the overall quality of the unit. As usual, their front office will aim to do so without making major investments.
Instead, they'll gather a wide assortment of arms in spring training–many of them non-roster invites–with hopes of whittling down to a group capable of consistently protecting leads throughout the season. The stakes are high for a team that is favored to win the division and expected to contend for a championship. Few things are more painful than a great team sabotaged by a bad bullpen.
Fortunately, the Twins have a solid foundation at the back end, and numerous interesting pieces in the mix to build around them with. For what it's worth, projection systems like ZiPS at FanGraphs forecast the Minnesota bullpen as above-average, even with the lack of impact additions.
With the start of spring training now less than a month away, here's a tiered overview of the relievers that figure to be competing for spots in the Opening Day bullpen. This is not an exhaustive list and it's obviously subject to change based on comings and goings over the next several weeks, but I think we can start to get a solid handle on how this unit will take shape.
Let's start with that back-end foundation, which would be the envy of many teams around the league.
The Locks
These four incumbents are all but certain to be key parts of the Twins bullpen heading into thee season, so long as they are healthy at the end of spring training.
Jhoan Duran: One of the best closers in the American League and the premier centerpiece of Minnesota's bullpen. As long as he's healthy and doing his thing it'll be tough for the Twins bullpen to be downright bad.
Griffin Jax: Was looking the part as a primary setup man before enduring some late-season struggles (5.57 ERA in August and September). Bounced back in the playoffs and should be lined up as a high-leverage fixture once again.
Caleb Thielbar: The inspiring veteran leader of the bullpen deservingly scored a career-high payday in arbitration. He's been consistently excellent since reviving his career in 2020, with a 3.21 ERA in 174 innings. Can he keep the improbable run going at age 37?
Brock Stewart: He was the Twins' best reliever, when healthy. Better than Duran even. The question is, and always has been, how many bullets he's got. Stewart presents an extremely volatile aspect of the team's bullpen outlook: their upside really hinges on his durability, and historically that's been a losing proposition.
Almost Locks
Each of these three hurlers has something to prove, but if they look good in spring training action they've got the inside track.
Jorge Alcala: His new contract includes a club option for 2025, so clearly the Twins see a potential future here. Not hard to see why; Alcala throws fire when healthy. But he's totaled less than 20 innings in the majors over the past two seasons. Can he really be counted on?
Kody Funderburk: He was impressive enough in a late-season audition (0.75 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 12 innings) to warrant a spot on the first-round playoff roster. It's safe to say Funderburk is a frontrunner to make the pen as a second lefty.
Josh Staumont: He signed a big-league contract in late December, having caught Minnesota's attention with his years of success in the Kansas City bullpen. Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, his outlook is uncertain, but if he's throwing well in March the 30-year-old should get a shot.
Wild Cards
I wouldn't consider any of these guys favorites to make the Opening Day bullpen, at this point, but I'd say they are each in position to get there based on developments in camp. Each one has intriguing upside–and in one case we've already seen it.
Louie Varland: We already know Varland is capable of being a lights-out reliever, because last September served as a proof-of-concept. I don't think he or the Twins are ready to commit him to that role quite yet, and right now it's hardly even an option since he's one of their top five starters.
Matt Canterino: Finally healthy after injuries limited him to 85 total innings since being drafted in 2019. The Twins claim they still view him as a starter, but I'm dubious. His stuff might be the best in the organization, and I think the club will be eager to unleash it in a fast-tracked relief role if he looks healthy and strong in spring action. Canterino has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA and 13.8 K/9 rate in the minors.
Jordan Balazovic: He's out of options, which might give the Twins some compulsion to carry him out of camp given the factors in play (big righty, former top prospect, mid-90s fastball). You don't necessarily want to give up on a talent like this for nothing. But the 25-year-old did himself no favors in a brutal 2023 campaign. He's gonna need to earn it.
Simeon Woods Richardson: Like Canterino and Balazovic, Woods Richardson is already on the 40-man roster, giving him an edge over many below. His stock has dropped in a big way following a hugely discouraging age-23 season, but if he and the Twins decide to fully commit to a relief role–dropping a pitch or two, maximizing his effort in short stints–SWR could quickly put himself back on the radar.
Hobie Harris: He might be more accurately categorized in the "longshots" group below. But I feel like Harris, who signed a minor-league deal last week, has a bit of an advantage over others. He's got MLB experience, he's 30, and the Twins are really high on his splitter as a weapon.
Longshots
All these guys have a chance, but they would likely need to make a really strong impression in spring training to overcome others and earn a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Brent Headrick: The left-hander threw 25 innings in relief for the Twins last year. As a southpaw who can get some strikeouts and provide some length, he's a nice depth piece to have on hand, but not much more.
Ryan Jensen: Claimed off waivers earlier this month, Jensen is still acclimating to pitching as a reliever after failing to pan as a starter. He's got a powerful arsenal that the Twins will likely aim to tweak in some ways. If he can start finding the zone with some regularly in exhibition action, it's not unthinkable he could sneak onto the roster.
Cole Sands: A known commodity, Sands has made 26 appearances in the majors over the past couple seasons, amounting to a 4.99 ERA. Like Headrick, he's more of a depth piece, but his breaking ball shows the makings of a legitimate out pitch. I don't have to squint too hard to see Sands being an impact reliever but it might be hard to convincingly make that case in March.
Josh Winder: Winder is in a similar boat to Sands–he's got MLB experience, he's on the 40-man roster, and he's got some pitches that inspire confidence. But until he can find a way to make his fastball usable (opponents hit .429 with a .786 SLG against it last year), Winder won't be a legit bullpen option.
A.J. Alexy: The righty has been brought in by the Twins in two consecutive offseasons, most recently on a minor-league contract, so clearly they see something they like in him. His extreme control issues over the past couple years (he issued 41 walks in 21 innings at Triple-A last year) will be a lot to overcome, so he seems like more of a long-term project.
Ronny Henriquez: He struggled mightily in Triple-A last year and was removed from the 40-man roster afterward, but returned to the organization on a minor-league deal. Henriquez needs to rebuild some confidence by throwing strikes and getting on track, but he's only 23 and has a solid repertoire.
What would your preferred bullpen look like, if you had to pick eight names today? Let's hear your thoughts on the bullpen outlook in the comments.
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