Jorge Polanco Drawing Increased Trade Interest

[ashbury]

15 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I still think he could get some CF rotation time too.  Maybe 30-40 games depending on how things go. 

He's played a grand total of 9 innings in CF across the past two seasons.  If Max logs 30 games in center, something has gone terribly, terribly not-according-to-plan.

[arby58]

39 minutes ago, ashbury said:

He's played a grand total of 9 innings in CF across the past two seasons.  If Max logs 30 games in center, something has gone terribly, terribly not-according-to-plan.

They had Taylor and didn't need him in centerfield last year. It wasn't that long ago (2021) that Kepler played 164 innings in centerfield. I don't think he has lost that much mobility to make him 'terribly terribly not according to plan' to be in centerfield if needed.

[RpR]

Kepler's fielding numbers in Center Field are horrid, it would be foolish to play him there.

[MABB1959]

Why the rush or need to get rid of the top and in Polanco’s case fan favorite. I am 1000000% sick of trading for prospects.  We basically gave Berrios away.  I would rather be the team getting good MLB ready players! 

 

[MABB1959]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have greater needs than second base, where Julien and Lee are on the rise. Polanco's two years of team control make him a valuable trade chip. It's not (only) about payroll, but when you have cheap replacements with at least a reasonable chance of performing as well or better (remember the Polanco injury issues), it makes sense to trade him. Of course, they will not give him away, but if he is the centerpiece of a trade for a decent starting pitcher, it works for me.

They have a horrible trade track record 

[William K Johnson]

Who would play second?

[Stew]

I agree with Tony and Rodney. We are so close. Trade the four players he mentioned ,and dobnak and larnach. That takes our roster to 79 million. If we spend 140 million. That gives us 61 million to spend. We could make a big splash on at least one pitcher and have room for all the other basic needs.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Who would play second?

Crazy thought: the guy who led the team in innings there in 2023, maybe?

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Stew said:

I agree with Tony and Rodney. We are so close. Trade the four players he mentioned ,and dobnak and larnach. That takes our roster to 79 million. If we spend 140 million. That gives us 61 million to spend. We could make a big splash on at least one pitcher and have room for all the other basic needs.

Slow down there ... My position has been trotted out all too often (by me and sometimes by others in replies) and sometimes misunderstood badly.

1. Are the Twins hurting that badly for money and do not feel they can carry the team they currently have? While I do not believe this to be true, some have suggested this. In this case, the Twins trade players for prospects, but do not really expect to win in 2024. I'm opposed to that move.

2. The Twins are able to trade one or more of their guys making from $6-11 million, possibly in combination with other players or prospects to improve their team (markedly) for 2024. In this case, the Twins trade 2-3 players which may include Polanco or others plus a potential prospect, etc. for a starting pitcher like Logan Gilbert. I don't think Gilbert is available but used his name. I am in favor of trades that make the Twins better in 2024 and into the future.

3. While I do not want the Twins to trade certain prospects (Festa, Emm-Rod, Jenkins), any trade of any player in the Twins system is acceptable for a clear improvement for the team.

4. I am in favor of and hopeful for a challenge type of trade that improves the team, similar to the trade of Arraez for Lopez last year. 

5. Lastly (I promise), I do not want the Twins to trade any of Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, or Farmer just to clear payroll. I have zero illusions of the Twins signing a top dollar player, which means clearing salary is pointless if the team does not receive a very good return (see #2). The Guardians just signed Austin Hedges for $4 million. A couple of relief pitchers just signed for @$5 million. The clock is ticking and opportunities are passing but the Twins would be foolish to just trade players to save money. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Crazy thought: the guy who led the team in innings there in 2023, maybe?

Then you absolutely need a good fielding player to take the spot when he is pulled in late innings.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Then you absolutely need a good fielding player to take the spot when he is pulled in late innings.

I think if you are going to follow the Twins, you need to be a realist and recognize the types of players and strategies that the team follows. You don't need to agree with Falvey's designs, but reality happens nonetheless.

The Twins are not focused on defense in their scouting, development, promotions, or trades. That doesn't mean that they do not favor good defenders or teach it, it just means that their priorities are placed in other areas above defense. This is also true on contact. Remember, two things can both be true. The justification by the Twins is that their decisions bring the team a greater chance at winning games. Again, one does not have to agree with the Twins ideas. 

If you are referring to Julien at second base (right?), and assuming he is the primary second baseman in 2024, he will rarely be lifted next season for a defensive player. Now, in fact, Julien may be traded or not be the choice at second base, but if he is then fans need to know he will complete the vast majority of games he starts in the field. Don't let this bother you because as fans we just watch while Falvey runs the show, for better or worse.

[specialiststeve]

Here is one I came up with... Cabrera has some high end stuff.. Mesa Jr. could be a CF option if nothing else works. We give up two established guys and a very nice pitching prospect... win/win? 

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Edward Cabrera	26	Majors	SP		Medium	5	31.6	15.7	15.8	12.7	15.8	19
Victor Mesa Jr.	20	Minors	OF			0	0	0	7.1	5.7	7.1	8.6

Total Value:

22.9

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Max Kepler	31	Majors	OF		Low	1	18.3	10	8.3	6.7	8.3	10
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Marco Raya	21	Minors	SP			0	0	0	6.9	5.5	6.9	8.3

Total Value:

24.6

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Here is one I came up with... Cabrera has some high end stuff.. Mesa Jr. could be a CF option if nothing else works. We give up two established guys and a very nice pitching prospect... win/win? 

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Edward Cabrera	26	Majors	SP		Medium	5	31.6	15.7	15.8	12.7	15.8	19
Victor Mesa Jr.	20	Minors	OF			0	0	0	7.1	5.7	7.1	8.6

Total Value:

22.9

Marlins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Max Kepler	31	Majors	OF		Low	1	18.3	10	8.3	6.7	8.3	10
Jorge Polanco	30	Majors	2B		Low	2	31.9	22.5	9.4	7.6	9.4	11.3
Marco Raya	21	Minors	SP			0	0	0	6.9	5.5	6.9	8.3

Total Value:

24.6

I'm going to be pretty shocked to see anyone willing to take on both Polanco and Kepler's salary in the same deal, plus I'm not sure how Mesa, jr. moves the needle.  This seems like a non-starter from both sides of the trade actually. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I think if you are going to follow the Twins, you need to be a realist and recognize the types of players and strategies that the team follows. You don't need to agree with Falvey's designs, but reality happens nonetheless.

The Twins are not focused on defense in their scouting, development, promotions, or trades. That doesn't mean that they do not favor good defenders or teach it, it just means that their priorities are placed in other areas above defense. This is also true on contact. Remember, two things can both be true. The justification by the Twins is that their decisions bring the team a greater chance at winning games. Again, one does not have to agree with the Twins ideas. 

If you are referring to Julien at second base (right?), and assuming he is the primary second baseman in 2024, he will rarely be lifted next season for a defensive player. Now, in fact, Julien may be traded or not be the choice at second base, but if he is then fans need to know he will complete the vast majority of games he starts in the field. Don't let this bother you because as fans we just watch while Falvey runs the show, for better or worse.

I think the Twins believe they can coach up athletes to be acceptable defenders. Specifically, Julien came the Twins as a poor defender and he looked unsure of himself the first half of the season. He’s still not polished, but he looked much better as time went on.

Yes, the Twins are accepting of strikeouts in exchange for driving the ball. I hope they bring in more guys who strike out closer to 20% than 30%.  Austin Martin and Miranda for Taylor and Gallo would help. IMHO, getting 600 PAs for Lewis, Julien and Correa will help defensively and offensively, especially keeping Jorge Polanco away from the left side of the infield. 

[William K Johnson]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Crazy thought: the guy who led the team in innings there in 2023, maybe?

Oh, the guy who can't field or throw.   Julien is not the answer at second base.

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

Oh, the guy who can't field or throw.   Julien is not the answer at second base.

You are not alone with that thought/comment.

Did you see Julien play 2B in September at all?

However, I wonder if you have considered how the Twins look at who plays where.

Who do you believe will play second base? Would you bet $5 that Falvey agrees with you?

 

[CoasterProductions]

If I am trading Polanco my replacement is Lee. I am also moving him for good pitching 

[jmlease1]

I love Polo, been a great player for us and a heck of a teammate. But he's the most logical player to move in a trade: very reasonable contract with 2 years of control, proven MLB player, plays a position the Twins have good depth at, will have real value in a deal.

I would be hesitant to move him for prospects, however, unless they have another deal in place to move prospects for pitching. Because that's what they need to be looking at acquiring here: starting pitching.

Moving Polanco also might mean they could keep Farmer, who would give them a little more insurance at SS, his RH bat is a good compliment to Julien if you need to give him a break against lefties.

[tony&rodney]

Last offseason the Twins spent the entire winter plus trying to find a suitable/agreeable trade for Max Kepler because it made sense from several angles. Now folks are suggesting that it jusy makes sense to trade Jorge Polanco. I cannot disagree if the return is suitable/agreeable. This is almost exactly the same as the scenario last offseason with Kepler. Polanco has value and IF the return is a strong one, the Twins will trade him. If teams are looking for a bargain or offering minor league players of questionable value, Polanco stays and bats in the three hole. Polanco remains the best bat the Twins have when there are runners in scoring position and that still matters. But yes, if the return makes the team markedly better ....

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I love Polo, been a great player for us and a heck of a teammate. But he's the most logical player to move in a trade: very reasonable contract with 2 years of control, proven MLB player, plays a position the Twins have good depth at, will have real value in a deal.

I would be hesitant to move him for prospects, however, unless they have another deal in place to move prospects for pitching. Because that's what they need to be looking at acquiring here: starting pitching.

Moving Polanco also might mean they could keep Farmer, who would give them a little more insurance at SS, his RH bat is a good compliment to Julien if you need to give him a break against lefties.

This take, also stated by others, is where I thinks the Twins should be - Move Polanco ONLY for a solid return that is based on starting pitching. We are lucky in that he is a rare commodity right now, an available established MLB middle infielder with a strong bat and a team friendly contract. That kind of player could be the centerpiece of a trade for that other rare commodity, young, controllable starting pitching with at least middle of the rotation upside. Polanco should have that type of real value but only to a team looking to contend in 2023 and 2024 that needs middle infield help. Polanco doesn't help a building team. That leaves us looking really only Seattle (fits all criteria), Miami (sort of fits all criteria), and maaaaybe Tampa ( doesn't really need IF help but does want to move Glasnow's salary). I don't see another team out there that's really a fit. 

Here's my deal parameters:

Seattle gets - Polanco, their choice of one or more of Luke Keasall, Austin Martin, or Josh Winder, and their choice of Marco Raya, Charlee Soto, or Conner Prelipp. Seattle gets their 2B, plus either his replacement in 2 years and/or a reliever, plus a high upside young pitcher to eventually replace the guy they trade. Return is close but a little short for the return below so unless they take two in the second group Twins throw in a younger lottery pick with upside like Jose Salas, Danny De Andrade or Bryan Acuna. 

Twins get - Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  Twins get a controllable starting pitcher with middle of the rotation upside. Depending on the 4th Twin going to Seattle, Mariners may need to throw in decent but not great reliever like  Darren McCaughan or Ty Adcock (Justin Topa would be better but he's probably too good for this trade). 

Deal : Polanco, Keasall, Winder, and Raya for Bryan Woo. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

51 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This take, also stated by others, is where I thinks the Twins should be - Move Polanco ONLY for a solid return that is based on starting pitching. We are lucky in that he is a rare commodity right now, an available established MLB middle infielder with a strong bat and a team friendly contract. That kind of player could be the centerpiece of a trade for that other rare commodity, young, controllable starting pitching with at least middle of the rotation upside. Polanco should have that type of real value but only to a team looking to contend in 2023 and 2024 that needs middle infield help. Polanco doesn't help a building team. That leaves us looking really only Seattle (fits all criteria), Miami (sort of fits all criteria), and maaaaybe Tampa ( doesn't really need IF help but does want to move Glasnow's salary). I don't see another team out there that's really a fit. 

Here's my deal parameters:

Seattle gets - Polanco, their choice of one or more of Luke Keasall, Austin Martin, or Josh Winder, and their choice of Marco Raya, Charlee Soto, or Conner Prelipp. Seattle gets their 2B, plus either his replacement in 2 years and/or a reliever, plus a high upside young pitcher to eventually replace the guy they trade. Return is close but a little short for the return below so unless they take two in the second group Twins throw in a younger lottery pick with upside like Jose Salas, Danny De Andrade or Bryan Acuna. 

Twins get - Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  Twins get a controllable starting pitcher with middle of the rotation upside. Depending on the 4th Twin going to Seattle, Mariners may need to throw in decent but not great reliever like  Darren McCaughan or Ty Adcock (Justin Topa would be better but he's probably too good for this trade). 

Deal : Polanco, Keasall, Winder, and Raya for Bryan Woo. 

I would LOVE Woo. I think he has everything a great pitcher would need, and tons of control.

I'd throw out Polanco with Wallner. That gives Seattle two bats at positions of need, and Wallner especially could equal the service time that Woo has for Seattle. It might be tough for Seattle to lose Woo, and it might be tough for us to lose Wallner, but a deal like this would make it more possible for the Twins to keep Kepler around for 2024.

 

Thoughts?

[August J Gloop]

I would be mildly surprised if either Max or Polo are with the team by spring training. Max because he has value right now, and they'd really feel dum if he turned back into a pumpkin and they had to DFA him. Matt Wallner is a good cost effective replacement and Kep woud be a good fit in Atlanta as a replacement for Eddie Rosario. There's somewhere to go with a Max for Max trade, since Atlanta missed the boat on extending Max Fried. Obviously, The Twins would need more than Kep to get that done, but not insane levels since all that ATL is going to get for Fried otherwise is a comp pick.

The Max Meyer idea is good. Essentially, they could send Polo to Miami for one of their scratch and dent talented pitchers. Meyer, Cabrera and Rodgers all have some blemishes but if healthy profile nicely. If the Twins threw in more, then Garrett could be available to them. Luzardo would be even a bit more costly but still doable. 

And with Kep and Polo off the Books, there still would be enough $$ to make a run at Shota Imanaga (although I'd argue even with both, Imanaga is realistic). 

[baseball24]

Of the trades that jump off the page as win/win for both teams is the Polanco for Mitchell proposal (an arm with upside included to the Brewers if need be). Mitchell is great, a good fit for the Twins, is controllable and with Yelich NOT being moved to first base, the Brewers WILL be trading either Mitchell, Taylor or Frelick will varying prices.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

And with Kep and Polo off the Books, there still would be enough $$ to make a run at Shota Imanaga (although I'd argue even with both, Imanaga is realistic). 

The Twins are not signing a free agent pitcher of note. Turn your attention towards Michael Wacha for 2/$22M.

That is as rich as it will get. I'm not suggesting to do this move because I'm still wishing for a trade for a really good pitcher with some controllable years, but the Twins are keeping the coin in the purse this year.

[harmony55]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This take, also stated by others, is where I thinks the Twins should be - Move Polanco ONLY for a solid return that is based on starting pitching. We are lucky in that he is a rare commodity right now, an available established MLB middle infielder with a strong bat and a team friendly contract. That kind of player could be the centerpiece of a trade for that other rare commodity, young, controllable starting pitching with at least middle of the rotation upside. Polanco should have that type of real value but only to a team looking to contend in 2023 and 2024 that needs middle infield help. Polanco doesn't help a building team. That leaves us looking really only Seattle (fits all criteria), Miami (sort of fits all criteria), and maaaaybe Tampa ( doesn't really need IF help but does want to move Glasnow's salary). I don't see another team out there that's really a fit. 

Here's my deal parameters:

Seattle gets - Polanco, their choice of one or more of Luke Keasall, Austin Martin, or Josh Winder, and their choice of Marco Raya, Charlee Soto, or Conner Prelipp. Seattle gets their 2B, plus either his replacement in 2 years and/or a reliever, plus a high upside young pitcher to eventually replace the guy they trade. Return is close but a little short for the return below so unless they take two in the second group Twins throw in a younger lottery pick with upside like Jose Salas, Danny De Andrade or Bryan Acuna. 

Twins get - Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  Twins get a controllable starting pitcher with middle of the rotation upside. Depending on the 4th Twin going to Seattle, Mariners may need to throw in decent but not great reliever like  Darren McCaughan or Ty Adcock (Justin Topa would be better but he's probably too good for this trade). 

Deal : Polanco, Keasall, Winder, and Raya for Bryan Woo. 

In any trade of Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, Seattle would likely seek quality, not quantity. In other words, the Mariners would want a bat of comparable quality and team control.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns the package of Polanco, Keasall, Winder and Raya a combined surplus value of $22.7 million and Woo a surplus value of $28.2 million.

[tony&rodney]

I found the perfect trade on BTV. The Twins send Kyle Farmer and Randy Dobnak to the Marlins and Miami sends back Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, and Max Meyer to Minnesota. The trade is a perfect match on BTV. 

What do you think about that ? BTV? Me neither.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

In any trade of Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, Seattle would likely seek quality, not quantity. In other words, the Mariners would want a bat of comparable quality and team control.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values assigns the package of Polanco, Keasall, Winder and Raya a combined surplus value of $22.7 million and Woo a surplus value of $28.2 million.

Interesting, cuz I'd actually call that a slight overpay by the Twins. I don't think Woo is a frontline guy. I think he'd just be another 3-5 guy like the Twins already have a bunch of. But I know others are higher on Woo than I am.

[harmony55]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Interesting, cuz I'd actually call that a slight overpay by the Twins. I don't think Woo is a frontline guy. I think he'd just be another 3-5 guy like the Twins already have a bunch of. But I know others are higher on Woo than I am.

Some folks are impressed by Bryan Woo's Baseball Savant page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-woo-693433?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I found the perfect trade on BTV. The Twins send Kyle Farmer and Randy Dobnak to the Marlins and Miami sends back Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, and Max Meyer to Minnesota. The trade is a perfect match on BTV. 

What do you think about that ? BTV? Me neither.

Baseball Trades Values offers values, not context.

The casual fan may offer trade context before grabbing values out of the air.

Each value assessment should be given appropriate weight. Neither is gospel.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Some folks are impressed by Bryan Woo's Baseball Savant page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-woo-693433?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

Yeah, that looks like a big fastball with lagging offspeed stuff which reinforces my stance that he's got a long ways to go before he's a frontline guy. Actually more of a reliever profile if you ask me.

I think he can stick as a starter, but if he's their big get from Polanco and a top 5 or 6 system prospect (Raya), plus a couple other pieces I'm going to be disappointed while hoping he proves me wrong.