One Year In: Carlos Correa, Dropping Payroll, and the Future of the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa’s free agent journey was well documented last winter. Let’s review his second season with the Twins and how his contract impacts the organization in 2024 and beyond.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa and the Twins seemed destined to find each other. His long-term deals with the Giants and Mets each collapsed, and the Twins were waiting to welcome him back into the fold. Granted, it took the largest contract in team history (six years, $200 million), but the Twins were getting one of baseball’s top players in the prime of his career. This was an unusual feeling for Minnesota sports fans because there was hope Correa could push the team to levels not seen in the Target Field era. 

2023 Recap
Unfortunately, the 2023 regular season did not go as planned for Correa. His season started slowly with a .634 OPS in the first month. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in May, impacting him on both sides of the ball throughout the 2023 campaign. He posted career-worst totals in most offensive categories, hitting .230/.312/.399 (.711) while grounding into an MLB-high 30 double plays. Even with his struggles, Correa continued to play through the injury as he led the Twins with games played and had 89 more plate appearances than any other player. 

In September, Correa was finding a way to produce offensively despite his nagging injury. He hit .296/.377/.463 (.840) with three doubles and two home runs in 15 games. He tore the fascia in late September when planting his foot on a popup against the Reds. Team trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that this kind of tear can lead to less discomfort in the foot for players. Correa’s playoff performance pointed to him being back closer to 100 percent. He made multiple defensive plays that were game-changing moments and went 9-for-22 (.409 BA) with three doubles and four RBIs. 

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli spoke during the regular season about his own experience with plantar fasciitis. Like Baldelli, players have shared that it can take an entire offseason of rest for the injury to heal completely. Sometimes, players deal with the injury throughout their careers. Hopefully, Correa returns in 2024 without any lingering effects from his injury-plagued 2023 season. 

Future Payroll Considerations
The Twins are dealing with a payroll crunch this winter due to their lucrative television deal expiring at the season’s end. Minnesota is expected to drop payroll this winter, which can impact multiple parts of the roster. Also, there is no clear solution to the club’s television rights problem. Cable companies are falling to the wayside, with households cutting the cord and switching to streaming options. It might be multiple seasons before the Twins find a solution and can return payroll to levels seen in 2023.

In 2024, the Twins have some wiggle room with the payroll for multiple reasons. Many of their young players have yet to reach arbitration, which makes them very affordable. Also, Pablo Lopez will only cost $8.25 million before his contract jumps to over $21 million per season from 2025-27. These players will only get more expansive in 2025 and beyond.

Correa’s salary accounted for roughly one-fifth of the team’s overall payroll last season. FanGraphs pegged Correa’s financial value at just over $9 million, a career-low total. When healthy, Correa has averaged well over $30 million in value per season. With the team dropping payroll, it’s even more imperative for Correa to match his previous production level.

Front offices can regret trading away players or signing free agents to long-term contracts. The Twins knew there were health risks associated with signing Correa, but there was no way to predict this year’s injury issue. Correa is tied to the Twins for at least five more seasons, and his contract will impact the type of players the team can target on the open market. 

Twins fans saw the highest highs with Correa in the playoffs last season and the lowest lows with his regular-season production. Now, the front office faces the challenge of upgrading a roster with limited payroll flexibility due to contracts like Correa’s. If Correa was a free agent this winter, would the Twins attempt to sign him? Would he be able to get more guaranteed money this winter because of the poor shortstop class available via free agency? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

I was avid runner for many years.  I had planter fasciitis for one whole summer.  I was training to run a marathon.  It is a painful injury to deal with.  I admire Correa for playing through the pain last season.  I did make a full recovery and ran many more races for years afterwards.  Correa's playoff performance was outstanding - MVP level.  I think Correa will comeback big time next year.  I see him has the clear leader of the Twins.  I am excited where he can lead the team.  

 

[Woof Bronzer]

Word behind the scenes is Correa is NOT happy about the payroll decisions because certain assurances were made to him when he signed about spending/competing.  Who knows but it will be very interesting to monitor what happens with his contract.  2024 is going to be a really important year.  I could see him bouncing back in a big way; I could see him taking on a bigger leadership role due to Buxton being a nonfactor; I could also see him get impatient with mediocrity/lack of investment; or continue to decline due to age and health issues.  Big year for Carlos, should be interesting!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Looking at 1 year performance record to determine whether a contract was good or not is a fools errand.  What was promising was how Correa played in the post season.  We can say he gave us $9 million worth of performance for the year,  I would guestimate,  he helped give us much higher return,  if you would count an additional 2 games in the playoffs.  He was clutch and helped us when games.  What is the value of 2 extra home games,  15 mil?  20 Mil?  30 mil?  net profit.   

He looked like the regular Correa.   At a $200 mil contract, it is worth the risk.  I wish they wouldn't have signed and let Lewis and Lee grow into the SS and 3rd base of the future, but a Lee/Julien,  Lewis, Correa infield has the potential to rival any infield in the league.  If we can solidify the outfield and 1st base we have a window opening at possibly giving us a chance at a WS in the next 3-4 years before several young players start becoming free agents.  

[PDX Twin]

44 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Word behind the scenes is Correa is NOT happy about the payroll decisions because certain assurances were made to him when he signed about spending/competing.  Who knows but it will be very interesting to monitor what happens with his contract.  2024 is going to be a really important year.  I could see him bouncing back in a big way; I could see him taking on a bigger leadership role due to Buxton being a nonfactor; I could also see him get impatient with mediocrity/lack of investment; or continue to decline due to age and health issues.  Big year for Carlos, should be interesting!

Perhaps if he's unhappy he would waive his no-trade clause and let the Twins escape some of the burden of his contract.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

45 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Word behind the scenes is Correa is NOT happy about the payroll decisions because certain assurances were made to him when he signed about spending/competing.  Who knows but it will be very interesting to monitor what happens with his contract.  2024 is going to be a really important year.  I could see him bouncing back in a big way; I could see him taking on a bigger leadership role due to Buxton being a nonfactor; I could also see him get impatient with mediocrity/lack of investment; or continue to decline due to age and health issues.  Big year for Carlos, should be interesting!

Curious where that rumor mill is coming from.  Besides that the payroll is being determined by the TV contracts.  Once that is resolved most likely we are back on the previous tract.  I would be curious if Correa is that unhappy has a great year if he would want to be traded. Correa on a 4 Year 132 million contract with options is a very reasonable contract especially if he puts up a 4-6 WAR this year.  

If Correa performs, we should be able to put more than enough quality players around the team to continue to compete.   Pablo Lopez signing an extension was huge.  You have a #1 or #2 pitcher locked in for 4 years.   The bullpen is still a bit of a question mark but begins to be less cloudy if we can find 1 more young elite pitcher to add in there (Varland anyone LOL).   The long-term picture for the Twins looks very good to me.   

As long as the Twins continue to do well in the drafts like they have, the foreseeable future looks very good.  The 2022 draft was a knockout (and thats even with Priellip having a set back), if 2023 is even better which it has the possibility then we should have more than enough solid arms and bats coming up through the system in the next 2-3 years to put on the field or for potential trades.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Looking at Woofs previous post,  I will take what he claimed here with a grain of salt.  He has a strong disdain for the reduction in payroll and the Pohlads.    It doesn't mean the claim isn't true, but with nothing else to back it up its as substantive as Sonny stating he wanted to retire LOL.  

[lake_guy]

Quick search got this, maybe out of date since the Bally collapse?

https://dodgerblue.com/mlb-teams-receive-at-least-100-million-annually-from-tv-rights-contracts/2022/02/12/#:~:text=starting in 2022 every MLB team will receive,is getting %24100m%2B guaranteed before selling a ticket.

From the financial side, the revenue will be split to give each team $60.1 million annually; Combined with local TV deals that are worth at least $40 million each, every MLB club will make at least $100 million from TV deals alone, according to Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

I'm really in wait and see mode as to what the impact actually will be and what is used as an excuse to not waste this "tv deal crisis" to mess with payroll.

[Beast]

The ripple effect is huge.

First, when a team comes out and publicly says, we’re more concerned about $20-30 million dollars than winning.  Who the hell is going to want to play here?  We lament players opting to sign elsewhere for the same or less money….this is why.

What do you think that does the clubhouse?  Imagine your boss came into work and said, “huge project coming up, figure out how to get it done.  Oh, that help we talked about? yeah, we decided we’d rather clear an extra $20k and tack it on to our executive bonus package.  I don’t really care if you succeed or fail, I’m getting a corvette.”  How hard are you going to want to work?  How much more likely are you to want out?

Whether it materializes or not, they already said it in the media.  How freaking dumb is that?  Unbelievably poor management and long-term business strategy on all fronts.  What a **** show.

[PatPfund]

Great information with one key missing part of the '23 recap; Correa was put on IL for a couple weeks leading into his playoff resurgence. That strategy should have been tried a few times during the regular season as well. I too have had plantar fasciitis and while long term rest is the best cure, it is an inflammation that can controlled with shorter chunks of time off. 

Hopefully Carlos modifies his notoriously intense off-season work to show up in better health next spring. (And hopefully his protegé Jose Miranda does likewise, and maybe is a bit less "sexy", but more baseball healthy?)

We've already broken away from the most pathetic playoff record in North American sports, and nabbed a playoff series win in the Correa era. I'm fine with the contract so far.

[tony&rodney]

Correa solidifies the infield. Hopefully he plays 140+ games and improves his numbers at the dish, returning to career averages at least. Big contract, so we hope he stays on the field. Great shortstop because of how consistent he is with his glove.

The payroll issue may be short-lived. We have no control over it, so worrying about it becomes like hoping for bad luck. The extra money last year did provide for depth. Going forward the younger, less expensive players will need to pick up their opportunities and perform.

The payroll does influence the future of the team in as much as the team will need to get production from their farm. This should mean the team is careful about what prospects are held tightly and not included in any trades. Guys like David Festa and Marco Raya are key to the Twins going forward. While Raya is still be closely limited in his usage and his future MLB starting status unsure, Festa has shown that his stuff plays. He is capable of being a #2-4 SP. The dude just needs the experiences needed to understand how to shape his pitches and command consistently. Learning and muscle memory take time. The Twins also have some interesting bats on the farm, led by three top 50 global prospects: Lee, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. This coming year is very important to see what each can do to show their long term value.

[mikelink45]

I cannot complain - I like their honesty.  We all see the TV mess and while we can all say spend money anyway, that is not how the rich got rich.  Let's see if the TV mess actually evens things out.  Our TV deal versus the Yankees would always leave us behind and yet we competed.

I know nothing about Correa satisfaction.  Let's see it play out on the field.  Correa dealt with a terribly painful ailment and did his best, but not the level we were looking for and Buxton is an annual anguish.

Young players are looking good and the off season is just beginning and that is not when the Twins FO moves.  Patience

 

[Peter]

Look what happened with Mets last year? One of biggest payrolls and 👎same with the Yankees-hated to see sonny go but we have great young players as well one if best drafts from last year. Twins will be just fine!! CC will have huge bounce back year and Royce will play full season-hopefully 40-50 home runs and 120-130 rbis. Can’t wait for season to start!!! Future is looking bright for many many many years!!!

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, Beast said:

The ripple effect is huge.

First, when a team comes out and publicly says, we’re more concerned about $20-30 million dollars than winning.  Who the hell is going to want to play here?  We lament players opting to sign elsewhere for the same or less money….this is why.

What do you think that does the clubhouse?  Imagine your boss came into work and said, “huge project coming up, figure out how to get it done.  Oh, that help we talked about? yeah, we decided we’d rather clear an extra $20k and tack it on to our executive bonus package.  I don’t really care if you succeed or fail, I’m getting a corvette.”  How hard are you going to want to work?  How much more likely are you to want out?

Whether it materializes or not, they already said it in the media.  How freaking dumb is that?  Unbelievably poor management and long-term business strategy on all fronts.  What a **** show.

Every place I have worked always had a budget based on revenue.  Expensive people were forced out to decrease costs.. People I know in corporate America run into the project scenario all the time.  They are asked to do more for the same pay, yearly wage increase of1-2 while the CEOs get a million dollar raise 

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Word behind the scenes is Correa is NOT happy about the payroll decisions because certain assurances were made to him when he signed about spending/competing.  Who knows but it will be very interesting to monitor what happens with his contract.  2024 is going to be a really important year.  I could see him bouncing back in a big way; I could see him taking on a bigger leadership role due to Buxton being a nonfactor; I could also see him get impatient with mediocrity/lack of investment; or continue to decline due to age and health issues.  Big year for Carlos, should be interesting!

I also don't know anything about some sort of "word behind the scenes" but Correa is obviously a serious competitor who wants to win NOW. I can't imagine he would be happy to see the Twins go into a cost-cutting off-season where they don't make any helpful additions to the team. Sure, it's still early, but I'm not seeing/hearing anything encouraging on our Twins grapevine. Trades? Signings? Wire Claims? Nothing happening yet. 

[Karbo]

Correa is a pro's pro. I'm more concerned about Buxton.

[old nurse]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I also don't know anything about some sort of "word behind the scenes" but Correa is obviously a serious competitor who wants to win NOW. I can't imagine he would be happy to see the Twins go into a cost-cutting off-season where they don't make any helpful additions to the team. Sure, it's still early, but I'm not seeing/hearing anything encouraging on our Twins grapevine. Trades? Signings? Wire Claims? Nothing happening yet. 

It is barely December., of course things haven’t happened yet. You probably don’t remember Vodka Dave.  He was a regular contributor who was adamant that Dozier was going to LA for multiple prospects,  DeLeon was going to be a Twin. It was a done deal. A few years and quite a few teams later DeLeon became a Twin.  People claim all sorts of things. You just have to ignore their posts or just smile at them. I do wish Dave would have come back when DeLeon was called up and said “I told you so, DeLeon is gonna be a Twin”

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, Beast said:

The ripple effect is huge.

First, when a team comes out and publicly says, we’re more concerned about $20-30 million dollars than winning.  Who the hell is going to want to play here?  We lament players opting to sign elsewhere for the same or less money….this is why.

What do you think that does the clubhouse?  Imagine your boss came into work and said, “huge project coming up, figure out how to get it done.  Oh, that help we talked about? yeah, we decided we’d rather clear an extra $20k and tack it on to our executive bonus package.  I don’t really care if you succeed or fail, I’m getting a corvette.”  How hard are you going to want to work?  How much more likely are you to want out?

Whether it materializes or not, they already said it in the media.  How freaking dumb is that?  Unbelievably poor management and long-term business strategy on all fronts.  What a **** show.

Best analogy ever!!

[Fatbat]

It’s understandable that the clubhouse would be concerned by lower payroll but at the same time all the young guys should be looking at their own opportunity to improve so they get the big paycheck. It’s possible to cover the 250 innings of Gray and Maeda if guys step up todo it.  Everyone is down on C4 but if he takes us deeper into the playoffs in ‘24, you haters better make that crow sammich and eat it. 
the payroll issue will work itself out in time. Relax a bit, it’s holiday season. 

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

What word behind the scenes?  I've not heard nor read anything about him A) being assured about spending levels and B) being unhappy with our stated direction this year.  Be specific when throwing out stuff like this please.

Having to prove your random statement is true takes all the fun out of making comments.

[saviking]

Thanks for daring to broach this subject Cody. I very openly concerned about the fact we resigned Correa last year and was opposed to it for many reasons with the risk of signing any player his age for a longterm 36 .Mill as a small market team. After all two teams passed due to medical. Concerns. 

FanGraph had his value at 9 mill. He's got a long way to back to a 18 million value which is only HALF his salary..

 

Personally I hope his anger about us not spending money waiving his no trade contract and demanding a trade. But I doubt we could find a partner willing to pay him more than 24 mill max, if that and we would have to throw in big money. 

The only reason the pre ious article is proposing trading Lee is because Correa is in his way. With our payroll problems do you think Correa is 36 times more valuable than Lee at a time we are strapped for cash.

 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

23 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

What word behind the scenes?  I've not heard nor read anything about him A) being assured about spending levels and B) being unhappy with our stated direction this year.  Be specific when throwing out stuff like this please.

Yeah take it with a grain of salt, just what I heard from someone I know over there.  Correa is never going to say anything publicly anyhow.  I would find it odd though if him and the Twins did not take about spending and competing for a Series before he signed.  He's a competitor and I find it really hard to believe he'd want to commit here for the rest of his career without feeling good about the spending philosophy.  Would you?  Unless he just cared about the money.  

No thanks on being specific when commenting on a fan site though, that would ruin the fun :)

[TwinsAce]

You mention this slightly in the OP as well as others in the comments, but Correa in the playoffs was everything we ever asked for.  Without Correa, I don't think the Twins would have won a playoff series this year.  It might not be captured in WAR values, but in almost a Mastercard slogan in reverse, Correa's contract was priceless because of this.

All of the youth and pre-arb / arbitration contracts will be fun to see impact the team over the next few years.  There will probably be a few mid-range contract extensions (similar to Kepler or Polanco) to help keep costs standard and there will probably be a few that they end up trading or not signing further because of the cost.  At this point though, I'm not too worried about long-term budget issues for the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

Correa and the team budget are not problems. The Twins need to have an idea of their roster priorities and adjust accordingly. As far as the future, things are looking good. The Twins have a decent group of young players and a full system of prospects working for an opportunity. The farm is rated more or less in the middle of all of baseball which means there are plenty of potential athletes who can be developed.

[Doctor Evil]

Having Correa on this team is a tremendous thing. He's not blocking anyone. He's a pro's pro. You work your prospects around him. Even if that means moving Lee to 1b or 2b.