Louie Varland’s Role More Apparent After Free Agent Departures

[Cody Christie]

During Minnesota's playoff run last season, Louie Varland showcased his elite skills in a bullpen role. His role for the 2024 season is more apparent, after Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray signed with new organizations.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Louie Varland has been quite the success story for the Twins' scouting and player-development departments. Minnesota selected Varland in the 15th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Concordia University in St. Paul. He entered college with a mid-80s fastball and a below-average breaking ball. By his junior season, he increased his velocity to the low 90s and developed a solid breaking pitch. It was enough to catch the eye of the Twins, and they signed him for $115,000.

Varland continued to make improvements after signing with the Twins, because he couldn’t overpower professional hitters with a low-90s fastball. Coming out of the pandemic, he threw in the mid-90s, and his arm slot was lower. These adjustments helped him to be a more consistent pitcher, which helped his prospect stock to rise. Following the 2021 season, Twins Daily ranked him as the organization’s 15th-best prospect after posting a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 between Low and High A.

His 2022 season established him as one of the team’s top pitching prospects after being named Twins Daily’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In 126 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 1.26 WHIP and a 146-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota was confident enough in him to have him make his big-league debut at Yankee Stadium. He entered last season as Twins Daily’s ninth-ranked prospect and the fourth-highest-ranked pitcher. 

Varland began the season at St. Paul, but the Twins were forced to turn to him because of injuries in the first half. In 10 starts, he posted a 5.30 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and a 54-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue was allowing 14 home runs in 56 innings. As other starters returned, Varland was sent back to Triple A in late June to work on his secondary pitches, including a cutter.

Minnesota recalled Varland when rosters expanded on September 1, to test him in a late-inning bullpen role. His stuff was electric, with his fastball hitting triple digits and his cutter being a weapon in the low 90s. In seven relief appearances (12 innings), he allowed two earned runs with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His playoff experience was limited to two appearances, and he was only asked to get one out per game. Still, overall, it was clear that Varland could be a dominant bullpen option, especially with his improved secondary offerings. 

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli met with reporters following the 2023 season and had glowing remarks regarding Varland as a reliever. Outside of Jhoan Duran’s emergence, Minnesota’s late-inning bullpen options have been hit-or-miss for multiple seasons, so it’s easy to understand why a manager would get excited about a potential bullpen weapon. If it were up to Baldelli, he’d likely have Varland in the bullpen for next season and worry about other options to fill spots in the starting rotation.

Minnesota’s starting rotation is losing two members, with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda signing free-agent deals outside the organization. Currently, the starting staff would include Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. Varland lines up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation, but it seems likely that the front office will want to add more depth. If the Twins trade for a playoff-caliber starter, Varland would be pushed to Triple A, which the team did with Ober in 2023. It seems clear that no matter what the team does this winter, Varland will be needed in a starting role. 

Varland has been considered a hard worker throughout his collegiate and professional careers, and the new-and-improved version of him hasn’t been given a starting opportunity. Last season, his breaking and offspeed pitches had negative run values, while his fastball ranked in the 74th percentile. During the 2022 season, opponents posted a .545 SLG against his cutter, but he lowered that by 145 points last season. Another offseason of emphasis and refinement could sharpen that offering into a true difference-maker. 

Like many pitchers, Varland saw an increase in his velocity in his switch from starter to reliever. He lacks an actual swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed hitters, who hit .275/.317/.526 (.843) against him in 2023. One possible change would be using his cutter as a fastball and then trying to use his sinker more regularly. However, he has lacked a feel for that pitch because he only started throwing that pitch last season. Varland has shown the ability to make substantial improvements from one year to the next, and his sinker should be one focus area.

From the front office’s perspective, it’s much easier for Varland to prepare for the season as a starting pitcher and shift him to the bullpen than to do things the other way around. The team assured him last season that the long-term plan is to keep him in the starting rotation. He’s outperformed expectations at every level, and the Twins hope he can take the next step in 2023 and establish himself as one of the team’s long-term rotation options. 

Should the Twins keep Varland in the rotation? Is it better to move him to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Bullpen he is a weapon. Starting he is a #5 without a ton of room to grow. I guess I'd be shocked if he is a starter again to be honest. Too much ability when he is a 2 pitch pitcher out of the bullpen. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

What is best for the team? I read that Louie stated he wanted to start because starters made more money,  That may be true, however Louie would be more assured of being a full time major leaguer more quickly as a reliever, thus earning big money quicker. A bird in the hand....

[Karbo]

IMO its clear that he will be a starter to start this year, regardless who the Twins may obtain in a trade. I think he may profile better in the pen, but he will be needed either as a 5th starter or reliable depth, at least for the 1st few months. If some of the other kids like SWR or Winder etc.. show they have what it takes to start, maybe then convert him.

[jorgenswest]

I would add a starter and prepare Varland to be a starter. Their 6th starter will be needed to start a lot of games and he has a better chance for success than Dobnak, Festa or Woods-Richardson.

[FlyingFinn]

25 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What is best for the team? I read that Louie stated he wanted to start because starters made more money,

Who is in charge here? Scott Boras says Lewis can only play at 3B. Varland only wants to be a starter. Sometimes I think the first day of training camp they are going to have a sign up sheet for the positions they are allowed to play so we don't hurt anyone's feelings.

Having said that, I still like Varland as a starter.

[Riverbrian]

Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings. 

 

 

[Dman]

Varland looks like the odd man out of the rotation to start the season.  He is critical depth though.  I think they keep him stretched out at AAA just like they did with Ober last year.  Someone is likely going to get hurt and Louie would be the next arm up.

If all the starters do stay healthy and the Twins need help in the pen again I could see them moving him there fairly early in the season as well.  I still think he is a starter though.  If he shores up the HR issue he can be a really good one. 

Personally I don't think his future is in the pen but, it is nice to know he can be a weapon if needed down the stretch or in the playoffs.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I see Varland as a bulldog of an elite setup man.  Otherwise at best he is probably a #3 starter.   Value wise, a #3 starter is worth more, but personally I think he can be elite in the bullpen.  

It is too early in the offseason to say because we didn't resign Maeda or Gray (we were never gong to resign him), is showing how we are going to treat Varland.  However I think they have stated they view him as a starter, so most likely he will move back unless the front office and Varland have had a talk in the offseason and agree the bullpen is the best spot for him.  Even if he goes back to being a starter, I think sooner or later he will be back in the bullpen in the next year or two.  

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

What is best for the team? I read that Louie stated he wanted to start because starters made more money,  That may be true, however Louie would be more assured of being a full time major leaguer more quickly as a reliever, thus earning big money quicker. A bird in the hand....

 

8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Who is in charge here? Scott Boras says Lewis can only play at 3B. Varland only wants to be a starter. Sometimes I think the first day of training camp they are going to have a sign up sheet for the positions they are allowed to play so we don't hurt anyone's feelings.

Having said that, I still like Varland as a starter.

I think we need some sources for these quotes here before we get out the pitchforks. I don't know enough about Varland to judge his character, but Boras never speaks in such black-and-white terms, he tends to speak with the goal of keeping as many doors open as possible for his players.

[tony&rodney]

Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He has good stuff and throws strikes. Does Louie need to refine his command and sequencing? Of course he needs to improve, as do both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Varland is less established than Ryan and Ober but his ability to keep the Twins in games should put him as a starter even if the Twins add someone else. 

We all hope that Chris Paddack is an effective pitcher in 2024. He pitched 140+ innings in 2019. His next best innings total is 108+ in 2021. Coming off of his second TJ surgery, Paddack has zero chance to pitch 150 innings. The goal is around 100 innings for the sheriff. The Twins would push Paddack to 120 innings if everything went perfectly. This leaves innings left to cover. Paddack will be the #5 guy and get his turn skipped on a number of occasions out of caution and concern for the elbow.

[DJL44]

Too soon to move him to the bullpen. Give him another shot in the rotation. They need starting pitching pretty desperately right now after losing Gray and Maeda.

I'd rather take a few other washed up free agent starters and turn them into relievers.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Dman said:

Varland looks like the odd man out of the rotation to start the season.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, ???

It's Varland or Woods-Richardson for the #5 spot at the moment.

[Cory Engelhardt]

55 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO its clear that he will be a starter to start this year, regardless who the Twins may obtain in a trade. I think he may profile better in the pen, but he will be needed either as a 5th starter or reliable depth, at least for the 1st few months. If some of the other kids like SWR or Winder etc.. show they have what it takes to start, maybe then convert him.

Whole lot of offseason to go. I'd imagine 2 starters, if not 3, will be added that will go ahead of him in the starting depth chart. One bigger name, one other guy who could also be a long man, and probably a minor league signing that is paid extra who will start in St. Paul.

I'd be willing to eat crow (not literally on this) but I see zero way that Varland is in the rotation to start the year, or even starting in St. Paul in the rotation. He is a really strong bullpen piece.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, ???

It's Varland or Woods-Richardson for the #5 spot at the moment.

Whole lot of offseason to go.

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, ???

It's Varland or Woods-Richardson for the #5 spot at the moment.

Yeah but they will sign someone for depth as right now Louie is the only somewhat proven depth piece they have.  It is gonna take more than 5 starters to get through the whole season.  The Twins will get another starter the only question is what level of quality at this point.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whole lot of offseason to go.

And no money in the budget

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And no money in the budget

If you think they would buy a big name free agent, when they have never ever done that, I don't know what to tell you.

There's always money in the banana stand. :)

But yes, I do agree that PROBABLY 2 of Farmer/Polanco/Kepler will be traded. And I also agree a few pitchers will be brought in. Depending on salary, their payroll will PROBABLY be in the 140 range right? To me, it is obvious there is room.

[Doctor Gast]

Lopez is a work horse, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts, where they can handle more innings, more effectively. With Varland is basicly a rookie & Paddock coming off TJ, their innings should be very limited. It'd be very prudent to bring in an outside SP to help replace Gray. Leaving Paddock & Varland as a piggy-back combo, while having Varland to start when need be. So Varland would correctly work himself into a full fledge SP role. If FO deem neccessary of obtaining a 2nd outside SP then Varland will be in the pen.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Front office has already said they want another Starter most likely in the trade market.  However, it seems most teams want 6 starters going into the season.  I could very well see Varland or Ober being number 6 and starting in AAA.  You are not putting your best players in their spots but inevitably you will need another starter some point in the season.  We need 6 viable starters and Varland easily is one of those.  He is a #5 pitcher at worst which has value exemplified by what the Cardinals did with Lynn and Gibson.  However, for the team he can be the #2 reliever for a long time in my opinion.  Him and Duran would be an excellent 1, 2 punch and then can add in Jax as well.  Most likely he stays in a starter roll and then I foresee him moving back to the bullpen if still having mediocre stats and we are in the hunt at the end of the season for the playoffs before he cements himself as a reliever.  Thats my guess anyway before a long offseason and and even season for that matter.  

[mikelink45]

Too early - I suspect we will add another veteran starter - the FO likes to do that.  I put Varland in the BP after stretching him out as a SP in the spring, and then he can move from BP to SP when we have the inevitable breakdown.  

[big dog]

Gotta give Louie another chance as a starter. He'll still be a really good bullpen piece later. We, and everyone else on the planet, needs starters more.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lopez is a work horse, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts, where they can handle more innings, more effectively. With Varland is basicly a rookie & Paddock coming off TJ, their innings should be very limited. It'd be very prudent to bring in an outside SP to help replace Gray. Leaving Paddock & Varland as a piggy-back combo, while having Varland to start when need be. So Varland would correctly work himself into a full fledge SP role. If FO deem neccessary of obtaining a 2nd outside SP then Varland will be in the pen.

I will agree that Varland is definitely on the roster. I think he is more of a weapon out of the pen, but good that he can go multiple innings. Either way, excited to have him.

And yes, at least one if not multiple guys is the plan.

Something like...

1) Trade for a name guy (Seattle, Miami, Mitch Keller, Toronto, etc, someone.)

2) Sign a long guy/6th starter (Nick Martinez, formerly of the Rangers, then Japan for a number of years, and the last few with the Padres, so he has connections to both Levine and Jayce Tingler, is a guy I'd watch for here. He was really good when he started last year for the Padres, and otherwise is a great long man option.)

3) At least one priority minor league signing, who probably starts the year at Saint Paul. Think Eric Lauer, formerly of the Brewers, or Brad Keller, formerly of the Royals.

4) Bring in one decent reliever too, maybe Ryne Stanek (formerly of the Rays and Astros.)

 

IF this was the pitching offseason, along with shedding PROBABLY at least Farmer, the payroll would be right where all of us armchair gm's are expecting it to end up.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Depending on salary, their payroll will PROBABLY be in the 140 range right? To me, it is obvious there is room.

This is a really optimistic number ($140M). If this is a reality, perhaps the Twins do push Varland off of the rotation. Or maybe the Twns add a good bat. I'm more cautiously thinking $125M.

A reason that Seattle had two good rookie pitchers is because they each of Miller and Woo were given a sustained chance to pitch. I know you disagree, but I'm picking Varland for a starting spot. We shall see.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I anticipate a 130-135 range.  I expect 1 decent signing but have no idea who or what that might be.  So far a CF, or 1st baseman and maybe some relief help is the most likely spots for some signings.  Plus I could see us taking on some salary with trading for a pitcher, but also trading away some salary as well.  Too hard to tell at this point.  

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

With Varland is basicly a rookie & Paddock coming off TJ, their innings should be very limited.

Paddack will be watched closely. The Twins will be delighted to get 90-120 innings from him. Varland has pitched 150 innings each of the last two years and will only be restricted by how well he pitches. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Depending on salary, their payroll will PROBABLY be in the 140 range right? To me, it is obvious there is room.

They said $125M to $140M which I interpret as $140M will be the maximum payroll and they won't go that high until they have a signed TV contract and are certain the money is there. Any word on that TV contract?

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is a really optimistic number ($140M). If this is a reality, perhaps the Twins do push Varland off of the rotation. Or maybe the Twns add a good bat. I'm more cautiously thinking $125M.

A reason that Seattle had two good rookie pitchers is because they each of Miller and Woo were given a sustained chance to pitch. I know you disagree, but I'm picking Varland for a starting spot. We shall see.

Hard to guess to much in November when really, this is all a hurry up and wait right? I'd imagine the moves the Twins make won't happen until January at the earliest, or at least that's when they usually start. I just want the moves to happen NOW :)

 

But yeah, I'd guess they are talking more in the 140 range at minimum, and I personally wouldn't be shocked if they did end up at 160. So the hand-wringing, I just can't do that on 11/29. Hand-wringing over roster/payroll, for me, will happen a week before opening day.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

They said $125M to $140M which I interpret as $140M will be the maximum payroll and they won't go that high until they have a signed TV contract and are certain the money is there. Any word on that TV contract?

Not that I've seen, but since Dan Hayes reported they are optimistic on something, I have to think SOMETHING is coming in the next couple of months on that front.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whole lot of offseason to go. I'd imagine 2 starters, if not 3, will be added that will go ahead of him in the starting depth chart. One bigger name, one other guy who could also be a long man, and probably a minor league signing that is paid extra who will start in St. Paul.

I'd be willing to eat crow (not literally on this) but I see zero way that Varland is in the rotation to start the year, or even starting in St. Paul in the rotation. He is a really strong bullpen piece.

You may be right, but I don't see the Twins spending that much this winter. I figure they will pick up 1 high 4, low 3 type, but I just don't see them spending that much with all the fuss about reducing payroll.