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Posted

If there was something that the Minnesota Twins appeared to need at the trade deadline last season, it was a right-handed slugger. The lineup was left-handed heavy, and it didn’t help when playing for platoon advantages. They never added that guy, but this offseason is a chance to address the issue.

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

For most of last season, Rocco Baldelli found himself with left-handed power in the outfield, with Byron Buxton shelved from defensive usage. Michael A. Taylor was a right-handed centerfielder but was playing for his bat more than anything. Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner spent significant time on the corners, each batting from the left side.

At first base, Gallo filled in plenty, and the position was destined for Alex Kirilloff. When healthy, the plan would be for Kirilloff to hit for power and average, but we have seen that his health is a question mark at best in recent seasons. Still, with many outfield options at their disposal, Minnesota should be more inclined to add a right-handed option at first base to pair with Kirilloff.

Rhys Hoskins will be the popular name on the open market, but four alternatives could be had in a trade.

Pete Alonso - New York Mets
Former Home Run Derby champion Alonso has hit 37 or more dingers in every full season. The Mets and Steve Cohen don’t need salary relief, but it was communicated to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander that New York intends to reset in 2024. Alonso is in the final year of team control, so there isn’t much reason not to cash in on him.

Alonso has posted at least a 122 OPS+ in each of his big league seasons. He draws a good amount of walks, hits for a passable average, and has power with the best names in baseball. He’s also right-handed and would be platoon-proof should Kirilloff never fully return to form for Minnesota.

Proposed trade: Alonso for Yasser Mercedes and Aaron Sabato (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight advantage NYM)

Brandon Drury - Los Angeles Angels
Signed by the Angels before the 2023 season when they thought there was a chance to win with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, Drury watched firsthand as the organization continued to waste talent. His 114 OPS+ was a slight dip from 2022, but he has put up three consecutive strong seasons. The power really has come on the past two years, and he added first base as a key component to his arsenal last year.

In the final year of a two-year deal worth $17 million, Drury is being paid just $8.5 million this season. He’s shown neutral splits throughout his career and has experience playing several positions. The Twins could find a much better fit for a little more than Kyle Farmer is expected to make this season.

Proposed trade: Drury for Kyle Farmer and Michael Helman (TVS says: Neutral)

Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles
It’s a bit odd to think the Orioles would trade one of their younger players while being in a window of contention, but he’s not a great fit for the new configurations of that ballpark. Should they lean more towards Ryan O’Hearn or others, he’d be a great option, and this summer, Matt Braun lined out why.

Under team control through 2026, Mouncastle would have the highest acquisition cost of these options. He owns a career 114 OPS+ and hit 33 home runs just two years ago. Allowing him to yank pitches into the bleachers at Target Field would be much easier, and he has crushed southpaws in his young career. Like Kirilloff, he also has experience in the corner outfield.

Proposed trade: Mountcastle for David Festa and Brent Headrick (TVS says: Slight disadvantage BAL)

Paul Goldschmidt - St. Louis Cardinals
There was plenty of talk at the trade deadline as to whether the Cardinals would sell off. That included Goldschmidt and even murmurs of third baseman Nolan Arenado. Recently our own Nash Walker touched on the idea of Minnesota making a move for Goldschmidt. He fits the profile of a strong right-handed bat that can play first base for the Twins.

Goldy won an MVP just a year ago, and while there hasn't been a significant decline in his talent, St. Louis could be inclined to get younger and cheaper with the veteran in the final year of his deal. He's due to make $26 million in 2024, and that could go up to $28 million with incentives, which makes this move tough for the Twins as they look to pull back payroll. Neither Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco are a real fit for a team looking to add youth, so they wouldn't get salary relief here either. Giving up a better prospect could entice St. Louis to throw in money for the salary though.

Proposed trade: Goldschmidt for Marco Raya, Jose Salas, and Zebby Matthews

Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return?


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Posted

I like the Goldschmidt deal first, then the Mountcastle.   I don't want Alonso.   1 year and fear of a Donaldson like clubhouse presence isn't worth it to me.

Posted

I'm not in favor of the rental trades, but if they can swing it for Mountcastle, that is more promising given his under $1 million a year salary and years of team control.

That said, it doesn't look like there was any discernable difference in his home/away batting splits in 2023 - 9 HRs at home, 9 away. .767 OPS home, .789 away. He was actually better at home in 2022 - same number of home runs home and away, but his .OPS at home was .767, and it was .691 away.

Posted

If the Twins got Alonso for a rookie league player who had a !!.629!! OPS last year and a guy every team will pass on in the Rule 5 draft, the rest of the league will hold a hearing on collusion. The Mets would basically just be doing a salary dump 

Raya is the only prospect mentioned that I'd have any hesitation about moving, but St. Louis has been the only active team in free agency thus far, they aren't trading Goldschmidt, they're trying to make a run next year. Just like every year.

Posted
2 hours ago, mickster said:

I like the Goldschmidt deal first, then the Mountcastle.   I don't want Alonso.   1 year and fear of a Donaldson like clubhouse presence isn't worth it to me.

There was one pundit on the NYC KFAN who hinted at Alonso being an attitude problem.  But then Mets Broadcaster, Keith Hernandez, promptly spoke up and said Alonso is “good teammate”.  

Posted

I would do any of them except the last one. And I would prefer not to give up Festa. I think I like the Angels trade the best, it only adds 1.5 million, and it may give Helman a shot at the bigs.

That being said, if the Mets would trade Alonzo for that, that trade needs to be done in a heartbeat.

Posted

Adding a right handed bat is difficult from a roster construction. The Twins have plenty of RH bats on the 40 man.  Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Lewis are all capable HR threats, that 3 or more as Lewis was also out for awhile of these individuals were injured or otherwise had poor seasons is the real problem. Can they swing a trade of one of their surplus outfielders (Larnach e.g.) for an equivalent RH bat.  

Posted
29 minutes ago, Eris said:

 Can they swing a trade of one of their surplus outfielders (Larnach e.g.) for an equivalent RH bat.  

I keep seeing this, the Twins have a surplus of outfielders. Currently on the Twins 40 man there seems to be 4 outfielders (one being Buxton), two utility guys, one A ball (probably AA this year) and AK.

I am really not sure how people think this is a surplus?

Posted

Looking for possible trades is always difficult and i commend the efforts to do these ideas. One of the sticking points in trades or in signing free agents remains the self inflicted roster budget. This reality could put a damper ona number of good ideas.

Alonso for Mercedes and Sabato - sure. Are the Mets doing more salary dumps? Mercedes has been talked about using good words, although he had a tough time last summer.

Drury is a decent little player but I'll stick with Farmer and Helman.

Baltimore should not be looking to trade Mountcastle. My personal weakness is not listening on Festa or Jenkins, but i understand that others see these guys differently.

Goldschmidt has a no trade and is close to retirement. He was not excited when he was traded to St. Louis because he like Arizona and at that time (if I'm remembering right, which seldom happens) goldy said that the Cardinals would be the last team he would play for. Goldschmidt is still really good though.

 

Posted

Alonso deal? Yasser!!! Today if possible.

Otherwise, I'd like to see where Miranda is with his shoulder injury. He was darn good in 2022, but derailed last year. If he's healthy and gets his timing back, he could be the answer. Very salary friendly too.

Posted
3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Looking for possible trades is always difficult and i commend the efforts to do these ideas. One of the sticking points in trades or in signing free agents remains the self inflicted roster budget. This reality could put a damper ona number of good ideas.

Alonso for Mercedes and Sabato - sure. Are the Mets doing more salary dumps? Mercedes has been talked about using good words, although he had a tough time last summer.

Drury is a decent little player but I'll stick with Farmer and Helman.

Baltimore should not be looking to trade Mountcastle. My personal weakness is not listening on Festa or Jenkins, but i understand that others see these guys differently.

Goldschmidt has a no trade and is close to retirement. He was not excited when he was traded to St. Louis because he like Arizona and at that time (if I'm remembering right, which seldom happens) goldy said that the Cardinals would be the last team he would play for. Goldschmidt is still really good though.

 

IMO, Goldschmidt, like most, wants to be part of a winner!!! While I’m not a huge proponent to spend on anything other than pitching, I see the value in a trade for Goldy. He’s a tough sign with the current DH logjam of Buxton/Julien. However, with his addition, we can figure out how to make our current arm options work out!

Miranda - Festa - Gordon - Winder - Headrick for Goldschmidt. The cards are signing Lance Lynn & Kyle Gibson so they need some controllable pitching with upside & this solves those issues.

V. RH pitching:

Julien at 2B - Lewis at 3B - Kirilloff at DH - Kepler in RF - Goldschmidt at 1B - Wallner in LF - CC at SS - Jeffers at C - Castro in CF

V. LH pitching:

Castro in LF - Buxton at DH - Lewis at 3B - Goldschmidt at 1B - Jeffers at C - Farmer at 2B - CC at SS - Kepler in RF - Martin in CF

Add Vazquez & these 2 line-ups & you have the 13 man roster for bats. Problem is, there’s no spending on pitching!

I prefer no action on Goldy & focus on a FA starter arm ($11-$13M) & trade for a reliever for less prospect capital………Devin Williams!

Posted

Do we really need a RH bat? All three of our catchers are RH. Royce Lewis is RH. Kyle Farmer is RH. Austin Martin is RH. Correa is RH. Miranda is RH. Buxton is RH. Polanco, Castro and Severino are switch hitters. The OF is the only place mostly LH, and re-signing MAT adds a Gold Glove RH hitter. At the trade deadline we were missing Buxton, Miranda and Lewis, and Correa was at career lows. Martin and Severino weren't on the edge of MLB. But things have changed including the payroll budget (and the real potential at AAA). 

If the Twins are serious about competing and holding a payroll line, they need to avoid adding an expensive block to inner talent a la Joey Gallo, and focus resources on the real need(s) in the pitching rotation.

Posted

Honestly, I'm having a difficult time understanding some of the trade values presented here.

1yr of Alonso for Sabato and the potential of Mercedes? All day long! Almost imperceptible he could be any sort of re-sign, but he'd be an All Star addition for 1yr to "buy time" for other young talent to further develop. But even if the FO could work in his $14+M while still needing a rotation add, plus adding a CF option, would the Mets really be willing to part from him for that? They practically print ML money, and might want to re-tool, but I can't imagine they are in a complete salary dump re-build mode.

Goldschmidt isn't going anywhere. He's also expensive and 1yr.

I also like the Drury fit for 1yr. The salary fits. I don't know about position flexibility as he's seldom played anything other than 1B or DH for a couple of years now. Like the "ridiculous" idea of adding Alonso, IMO, he's a possible 1yr fit, but a better re-sign option. BUT, we're in a twilight zone in regard to CF and DH and Buxton. A 1yr option at 1B and DH makes a ton of sense until you start to look at the INF along with Buxton. And this also applies to Mountcastle as well, even if the prospect capital is cheap, what is the future benefit? Do the Twins just bank on Buxton for X number of games in CF and add a power bat at 1B in case AK has issues and they can't count on other RH options? 

What is the 2024 endgame to build a roster? SP and CF seems to be the most important areas to address first. The faint idea of a pen arm is always there, whether Pagan comes back, or a different arm sure seems like a logical place to spend a little $ ax well. I'd LOVE another RH bat to add. But unless GIFTED a strong bat like the OP suggests, I believe the Twins will, and need to, trust in what they have, and develop it. 

For depth, if nothing else, they need a SP. And how many more posts can we have about what the FO might do?

Still need to add to CF, at least in the short term, while working with Martin, getting as much as we can from Buxton, etc.

IDEALLY, the Twins would sign or trade for someone who could bat RH and play the OF and 1B, if not other spots. Because that's how the roster is constructed as of now. I have no idea who that might be, but I'm looking more and more at Martin and Helman to do that, and work more towards a SP and CF option. These are all really nice options if the payroll for 2024 was maintained, at least, or bumped. But that's a different discussion.

 

Posted

There are players with no trade contracts who can be paid off with a bonus plus a rich extension. There are others who are actually serious. We actually never know. 

So let's say Goldschmidt will agree to be traded if he gets an additional 3 years at $25 M per year plus a $2 M bonus. Goldy had a $1 M bonus if traded in his last contract and added a no trade when he resigned in St. Louis. 

Does this change anything for those who want to trade for Goldschmidt?

We also read a ton of suggestions to trade Correa and Buxton, both of whom have no trade clauses in their contracts. I'm genuinely confused why folks just ignore these details when the players are so specific about their wishes. I do understand that anyone can change their minds. 

Lastly, were the Twins just kidding when they suggested there would be a reduced budget? Dan Hayes was the one who hinted at a window of $125-140 million for player payroll in 2024. Unless the Twins step back from Falvey's comments I'm not seeing any additions of guys who cost a pile of money. What am i missing that others are clearly seeing differently? I'm just wondering how to view the perceptions of others in consideration of what has been published.

Posted
15 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I keep seeing this, the Twins have a surplus of outfielders. Currently on the Twins 40 man there seems to be 4 outfielders (one being Buxton), two utility guys, one A ball (probably AA this year) and AK.

I am really not sure how people think this is a surplus?

I agree with your assessment, because of injuries it seems at times the Twins struggle to put together a decent outfield. The general theme of the article is that the Twins need a RH bat. I don’t necessarily agree with that as what Twins really need is for the RH bats on their roster to perform (Correa, Miranda, Buxton). However, one of the drivers for this theme is that up and down the farm system our top outfielders  are LH bats.  My suggestion was that we trade one of these LH hitting outfielders for an equivalent RH outfielder. Not that we trade an outfielder for a 1B. 

Posted
21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins got Alonso for a rookie league player who had a !!.629!! OPS last year and a guy every team will pass on in the Rule 5 draft, the rest of the league will hold a hearing on collusion. The Mets would basically just be doing a salary dump 

Raya is the only prospect mentioned that I'd have any hesitation about moving, but St. Louis has been the only active team in free agency thus far, they aren't trading Goldschmidt, they're trying to make a run next year. Just like every year.

I'd do an Alonzo for Mercedes/Sabato trade in a heartbeat with the Mets eating a lot of Alonzo's salary. Just can't see the Mets falling for it. 

Posted

It is tempting to go for it in 2024 by swinging a big trade. But Raya is one of their few top pitching prospects. They already traded Chase Petty for Gray, which was fine in the short term. But unless they are willing to pay a big contract for a free agent pitcher, trading your small stable of young starters could hamstring the team down the road. 

Posted

If anything, this post demonstrated that some of these guys wouldn't be nearly as expensive as we think to acquire in a trade prospect-wise.  Exhibit A is Alonso.  As much as I like Goldy, I wouldn't do that trade.  The others are intriguing.

But the most pressing NEEDS of the Twins remain SP & CF.  I can see a platoon of Castro and Nick Senzel in CF for the Twins.  Works for me for 2024.  Austin Martin is also a possibility if Senzel disappoints and he's playing well in St. Paul.

It's time to sell high on Kepler and Polanco to fill the rotation question marks.  I'd like to see the Twins trade for for SP and sign Frankie Montas.  That should fit within their self-imposed budget reduction.  Correa will have a bounce back season offensively in 2024.  But we struggled against LH pitching and Lewis is the only other RH hitter to fear on the roster at this time.  I'm not counting on anything from Buxton. 

So if you moved Kepler and Polanco.  Went with a Castro/Senzel platoon to start the season in CF and or added Adam Duval for another RH power bat and OF depth you could maybe make that trade with the Mets and play Kirilloff in LF with Wallner in RF.  It's going to be an interesting and probably at times frustrating off season as players land on teams not called the Twins.      

Posted

I don't get the obsession with adding a RH hitter. Lewis, CC, Jeffers, Buxton, polanco are all RH. Those first two are going to play 140 plus games, and Jeffers half. Their next C is also RH. 

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