Carlos Correa is Flirting with History

[Greggory Masterson]

Just one year into the largest contract ever given out by the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa is chasing history. His performance over the next few weeks can etch his name into the record books.

Image courtesy of Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa has a double-play problem. He's addicted to them. Not only can his cannon of an arm turn some impressive double plays on defense (he's sitting at 47 turned thus far in the season), but he's also on pace to ground into more than 30 of them.

If you're unaware of how monumental that number is, only 18 times in MLB history has a player hit into 30 double plays in a season. Correa sits at 29, tied at 19th all-time with 13 others. He already sits atop the Twins all-time single-season record book, having passed Trevor Plouffe and Harmon Killebrew last week. There are 22 games left in the season.

He's on pace to hit into 34 double plays, which would land him in sole possession of third place on the all-time list. The record is 36, held by 1978 American League MVP Jim Rice, who set it in 1984 and followed it with a season that landed him at second all-time with 35 in 1985.

Rice was an All-Star in both those years and those preceding and following—1983 and 1986. He won a Silver Slugger in 1984, hitting .280 with 28 home runs and 102 RBI. Some of that was likely due to his reputation, but he still graded out 12% above a league-average hitter by OPS+.

Grounding into a lot of double plays isn't necessarily an indictment of a player's talent. Rice was an MVP and occupies the top two spots. Cal Ripken Jr. (1985) and Miguel Tejada (2008) are among those tied for third at 32, though they're tied with the likes of Billy Butler (2010) and Ben Grieve (2000), players for whom no one is anticipating a trip to Cooperstown.

The all-time career record book for double plays hit into is adorned with some of the greatest of all time. It takes a long career to hit into 426 double plays as Albert Pujols did. Among the top five are Miguel Cabrera and Hank Aaron, two of the greatest righthanded hitters of all time; Ivan Rodriguez; and Ripken. In six years, all five of those players will be enshrined in Cooperstown.

In addition to their long careers, the four share a few commonalities: they were slow, right-handed hitters who hit the living snot out of the ball. Carlos Correa shares those same traits. He's a righty (meaning he starts a few feet farther from first base than a lefty does) who is in the top third of the league in hitting the snot out of the ball (which makes it easier to turn double plays when the ball is fielded in the infield) and in the bottom third of the league in speed.

Correa hasn't always had a double-play problem, though. The most he'd ever hit into in a season was 18 in 2022. He's on pace to almost double that figure this year. So, what's changed?

Correa hasn't necessarily been fast since around the 2016 season, according to Statcast. From 2017 to 2019, he was consistently ranked in the top third of the league, though right on the edge around the 67th percentile in sprint speed. As he's aged, he's gotten slower, having been right around league average for the past couple of years.

The wheels have come off this year, though, no pun intended. Correa has dropped into the bottom third of the league in sprint speed, in no small part due to his season-long battle with plantar fasciitis—an injury to a ligament in the bottom of his foot that is quite painful.

However, it's not like he's walking to first base. Being slower than 67% of the league can only explain some things. If it could, there would be 100 other players alongside him. Ty France of the Mariners has the second most this year—24.

He's hitting the ball hard, as well. His average exit velocity (90.3) and hard-hit percentage (45.9%) rank in the league's top third. The exit velocity is on par with his career norms, though the hard-hit percentage—meaning balls hit over 95 miles per hour—is the highest of his career and over 3% higher than his career average. He's hitting the ball about as hard as usual, if not harder.

Other aspects of his batted ball profile have mostly stayed the same. His average launch angle is lower than in recent years (10.4) but right on track with his career averages (10.3). There's a lot of noise in average launch angle because it's averaging a bunch of different types of hits, but he's also hitting groundballs, the type that turns into double plays, at a similar rate to his career norms (46.7% vs. 45.6%).

Correa's spray charts largely look similar as well, as the rate at which he's pulled the ball, hits it up the middle, or goes to the opposite field is within 1% of his career averages. It's difficult to pinpoint why he's grounded into a comical number of double plays.

But maybe that's what this is—a comedy. Of course, the year Correa signs the biggest deal in team history, he develops an injury that hobbles his already diminished speed. Of course, he's hitting the ball like usual, and middle infielders are catching them. Of course, it's happening with guys on base. Who would have written it any other way?

There's a lot of luck in setting any record. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. They're abnormalities. Sometimes, that luck is bad. Sometimes, that bad luck accompanies plantar fasciitis, hitching a trailer to the sports car tumbling down a bad luck road.

Me? I'm here for the ride: next stop, 36, Chuck.

AUTHOR EDIT: A couple of early comments noted that I left out situational performance in this piece. Thank you to @PDX Twin and @Brandon. I did a quick dig and found some interesting information. Correa is not hitting with runners on and less than two outs any less than he normally does. However, he's hitting groundballs in those situations at an uncharacteristic 62.2%, which is a 50% increase over his career average in those situations: 43.5%.

It really could just come down to hitting more grounders in those situations. Great catch, and thank you to both of you who asked for more data.

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[PDX Twin]

Any data on how often he has batted with a runner on first and less than two outs? He's batter 2nd and 3rd a lot, which will lead to frequent appearances in those situations.

[jmlease1]

Meh. It's not like we haven't noticed. It's the plantar fasciitis. Slow player gets slower, great hitter struggles at the plate. I expect he'll be fine next year.

I really hope he gets nowhere near the record, because the last thing this franchise needs is another excuse for discontented fans to go after the highest paid player. (I despised the media-led attacks on Joe Mauer that fostered so much fan contempt) Correa, despite what is a debilitating injury for most people has still been able to play almost every day, and has provided quality defense and continuity at SS that we haven't seen in a really long time. 

The DPs on offense suck, but I still like Correa, like what he brings to this team, and look forward to getting another healthy season from him at SS next season (and hopefully a couple of big time player games in the post-season this year).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Back in Jim Rice's day, pretty much most batters shortened up on the two-strike swing. I would thing that ran Rice into some double plays that he would not have otherwise hit into if he had been swinging like batters swing today.

As far as Correa, there was a very strong case to not bid on him at all. If Correa had gone to the Mets for 6/150 or whatever it was, we would all be talking about how smart the Twins were to stay away from him. But he is our guy now, and we will need him in the playoff series.

I would like to know if his plantar fasciitis is related to his reconstructed ankle. We can hope he really rests and treats that over the offseason so that it does not turn into a chronic thing year after year. If he had gone on the DL earlier this season, he might be feeling better by now, who knows (and would be nowhere near the GIDP number you mentioned). What you are describing with his speed is a curve trending downwards and  he is getting slower over time. There is no reason to think he will get faster one of these years, especially if his plantar fasciitis lingers. I've heard this a lot on this site, and I agree, I would move him down the batting order heading into 2024, maybe 6th.

[Brandon]

To make this article better consider using situational stats like how many plate appearances he has with a runner on First.  And compare that to years past.  

[Greglw3]

Very little discussion here about Correa’s spectacular defense this year and please don’t quote me those totally absurd "advanced defensive metrics". Everyone who has watched all the games including Roy Smalley, scouts, announcers and fellow players know that Correa has been a huge defensive force. 

[Woof Bronzer]

52 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Meh. It's not like we haven't noticed. It's the plantar fasciitis.

Is it?  He was terrible before the "plantar fascitis" came up.  I'm not seeing any turning point in his numbers that show some kind of injury dropoff. 

[Woof Bronzer]

12 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Very little discussion here about Correa’s spectacular defense this year and please don’t quote me those totally absurd "advanced defensive metrics". Everyone who has watched all the games including Roy Smalley, scouts, announcers and fellow players know that Correa has been a huge defensive force. 

Well if Roy Smalley says so....

So, let me get this straight:  plantar fascitis affects hitting and running, but not fielding?  

The minor leagues are riddled with shortstops who can field but not hit.  I'm pretty sure the Twins aren't paying Correa $30 mil/year to be Andrelton Simmons.  

[Greglw3]

13 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Well if Roy Smalley says so....

So, let me get this straight:  plantar fascitis affects hitting and running, but not fielding?  

The minor leagues are riddled with shortstops who can field but not hit.  I'm pretty sure the Twins aren't paying Correa $30 mil/year to be Andrelton Simmons.  

Yes, it’s affected hs hitting but not his defense. Anybody can see that. And there are no SS in the minor leagues who are within 10,000 miles of Correa not any in MLB who are of the impact def. he is. Just his gun arm turns double plays no one else could turn and myriad close plays at 1st into outs. Plus radically low errors for a SS.

The ANdrelton Simmons comparison is beyond absurd. I suspect you don’t watch all the games. As for Roy Smalley, it’s not just him but I saw Roy Smaley’swhole career w Twins, listen to him on TV and oh, the brilliant Gene Mauch who was listed as 25th greatest manager of all time is Roy’s Uncle. Roy was a SS and has a brilliant baseball mind. 

[Greggory Masterson]

48 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Very little discussion here about Correa’s spectacular defense this year and please don’t quote me those totally absurd "advanced defensive metrics". Everyone who has watched all the games including Roy Smalley, scouts, announcers and fellow players know that Correa has been a huge defensive force. 

I didn't spend much time discussing Correa's elite defense because that wasn't what I was writing about. I could have also written about his reported leadership skills or how he's hitting .400 in September, but that wasn't my goal. It's worth appreciating just how historically absurd his GIDP numbers are this year. At no point did I disparage him in this.

11 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Yes, it’s affected hs hitting but not his defense. Anybody can see that. And there are no SS in the minor leagues who are within 10,000 miles of Correa not any in MLB who are of the impact def. he is. Just his gun arm turns double plays no one else could turn and myriad close plays at 1st into outs. Plus radically low errors for a SS.

The ANdrelton Simmons comparison is beyond absurd. I suspect you don’t watch all the games. As for Roy Smalley, it’s not just him but I saw Roy Smaley’swhole career w Twins, listen to him on TV and oh, the brilliant Gene Mauch who was listed as 25th greatest manager of all time is Roy’s Uncle. Roy was a SS and has a brilliant baseball mind. 

Simmons is actually a great comp for Correa at this point in his career. They both make up (made up, in Simmons's case) for suboptimal lateral quickness as a shortstop with elite arms by playing further back in the infield to give them more time to make the play. Simmons spent 5 years as the best defensive shortstop in baseball and received Ozzie Smith comparisons for his ability to prevent runs. Comparing Correa to Simmons defensively is not a knock on Correa.

[old nurse]

GIDP like RBI is a stat of opportunity. A negative one,, but still opportunity. 45 RBI other than himself is a stat of opportunity . Now if he batted lead off the numbers would look different as the 7/8/9 hitters are less likely to be on base  as the usual ones have a sub .300 OBP. 

[Woof Bronzer]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Yes, it’s affected hs hitting but not his defense. Anybody can see that. And there are no SS in the minor leagues who are within 10,000 miles of Correa not any in MLB who are of the impact def. 

The ANdrelton Simmons comparison is beyond absurd. 

It's not medically possible for an ankle injury to affect hitting but not defense.  Correa was just as bad at the plate before the supposed injury as he's been since.  He's just been flat out bad this year.  If his injury is indeed affecting his performance to a significant degree he shouldn't be playing.  It's not heroic to hurt the team by playing poorly while injured. (See also "Buxton, Byron 2023 season" for further reference.) And it shouldn't be hard to say he's having a bad year.  Go ahead, say it.  Give it a try.  "Carlos Correa has had a terrible year."  Your life will not change one way or the other, and your fan card won't be revoked, I promise.  

In 2021 Simmons was 8th on the Twins hitters in WAR with 1.5,  In 2023 Correa is 10th on the Twins with 1.4 WAR.  The comparison is actually more spot on than I even realized.  

[Jocko87]

10 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

As far as Correa, there was a very strong case to not bid on him at all. If Correa had gone to the Mets for 6/150 or whatever it was, we would all be talking about how smart the Twins were to stay away from him. But he is our guy now, and we will need him in the playoff series.

For starters, I'll say it.  Carlos Correa is having a bad year.  On offense. I'm not the least bit worried about it and if he keeps getting hot in time for to postseason no one else will either.  The exit velo on the GIDP's is north of 94 mph so regression is coming.

As far as the quoted statement, there is no case to be made not to bid on his services at all.  None whatsoever.  I'm sorry, but that's an absolutely absurd statement and must be addressed.   The Mets agreement was $315m, not 150, if that helps your perspective.

The contract signed would have been signed by 30 of 30 major league teams, including the Giants and Mets had it been on their table.  It was a masterstroke by the front office to get in and stay in where they did.  Everyone else tuned out at Christmas but they scored massively.  I can't fathom the revisionism that we would be subject to if he had gone to the Mets for that money and been solid.  Three years from now it would be legend on these forums how cheap the new Polhads were.

Yeah, he's not been great with the stick this year.  Neither have Javi Baez, Zander Bogarts, Darby Swanson or Trea Turner.  Believe it or not, they are still 27-30 year olds who are dealing with crazy stuff.  Correa had one of the craziest offseasons in memory and it matters.

Go look at Corey Seager first year after signing his deal and compare to this year.  Did Texas sign the .770 OPS guy or the 1.040 OPS guy?  Check back with me in three years.  Correa probably won't OPS 1.000 but I'm willing to bet nobody regrets the contract.

[Karbo]

I agree his DPs are a bit concerning, And that he should probably hit in the 5 or 6 slot. But, I still think he brings value to this team. His defense is fun to watch, he hits for decent power, and IMO the OBP will improve in the future. In addition he brings a certain quality to the team that they seem to need.

[Doctor Wu]

I think, come playoff time, when a game is on the line, I will feel more confident with Correa at the plate as compared to some of our less experienced batters. Sure he has struggled this year, but I still think he will rise to the occasion. 

[Ex-Iowegian]

New stat alert…..

HSoB.

I like it

[laloesch]

20 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I would like to know if his plantar fasciitis is related to his reconstructed ankle. We can hope he really rests and treats that over the offseason so that it does not turn into a chronic thing year after year. 

Most likely not.  The Plantar fasciitis is connected from the heel bone to your toes.  The most likely cause is too much running, walking or running on hard surfaces, being overweight, etc.  It can even be brought on by improper shoes.  All that said Correa's down season can't be completely blamed soley on plantar fasciitis.  The worst of it is when you wake up in the morning and first start walking around.  As someone who suffered from it a few years ago and took almost 2 years to get rid of it, the pain is manageable and not unbearable once you stretch in the morning and start moving around.  I was still able to run 5-10 miles a day several times a week until it went away.  Correa's offensive struggles this year are not just plantar fasciitis.  He's got some other unaddressed issues at the plate in my opinion.

[Woof Bronzer]

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

As far as the quoted statement, there is no case to be made not to bid on his services at all. 

The case to be made is he had serious enough injury concerns that not 1 but 2 teams were scared off when they did their own examination.  This doesn't mean that the Twins should not have signed him, but it's a very legitimate concern.  And given how the season has played out I'm guessing SF and NY are both breathing a sigh of relief that they backed out.  

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, Ex-Iowegian said:

New stat alert…..

HSoB.

I like it

"I understand you don't want to hear about his exit velocity and launch angle. What if I told you his Hitting the Snot Outta the Ball is in the 67th percentile?"

[T.O.]

If he can get just a few more he'll have one DP for each $1,000,000 of salary.
Yes I'm one of those fans that doesn't think he's worth $300,000,000. No one is except maybe Ohtani when he's not injured.
I was sorry to see him go last year but thought it was best given his asking price. He was good last year but not consistently good. He didn't really turn it on until September when the Twins were completely out of the race. Didn't help the Twins but did get him a bigger salary later.
I think his main problem this year is putting pressure on himself to show he is worth the price. It can't be done. Other than his consistent, excellent fielding he's not that good. He was hitting poorly long before Plantar Fasciitis became a factor.
The contract is already signed. I just wish he would focus on hitting and fielding and not being a "team leader".

[Jocko87]

46 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The case to be made is he had serious enough injury concerns that not 1 but 2 teams were scared off when they did their own examination.  This doesn't mean that the Twins should not have signed him, but it's a very legitimate concern.  And given how the season has played out I'm guessing SF and NY are both breathing a sigh of relief that they backed out.  

It was priced in. Absent the ankle stuff he gets 13 years and $350m from Giants. The Giants would have signed up for the same deal the Twins got in a heartbeat.

For reference, he will pass the max vesting PA threshold this week to give a idea how the back of the deal is going to work. It will only take a 2-3 week IL stint to be able to exit (or restructure) the contract if it goes bad.  Every team in the league would have signed up eagerly. Especially considering the ankle concerns were long term rather than immediate.

[T.O.]

The plantar fascia actually isn't a ligament, it's an aponeurosis which is a think band of tissue that takes the place and functionality of tendons which are thin and would tear easially on the bottom of the feet. Plantar Fasciitis is inflammatory in nature and really hard to recover from if you are pounding your feet every day. Hopefully a winter of rest will help. And hopefully they have him using the right arch support which distributes the weight across the entire bottom of the foot instead of most of it on the heel where most of the pain is.
He may be running a little slower but is fielding well so he apparently can play with pain. I wouldn't think it would effect hitting as much but wouldn't know.

[Sjoski]

No mention of Billy Hitchcock in the article...WHO?    Billy grounded into 30 DP in only 399 at bats in 1950...that's one DP per 13.3 at bats....Unless Carlos hits into a  slew of DPs....at least he won't hold that dubious diss-stink-sion. Correa is hitting into one DP every 17.06 at bats. 

Billy Hitchcock 1950 stats

 

[Fred]

It's obvious that the GIDP stats aren't good, but the Twins don't seem to be concerned. They could start asking him to bunt, or attempting steals in those situations. That would fix that stat, but how many others would suffer? 

[dex8425]

On 9/10/2023 at 1:19 PM, Greggory Masterson said:

I didn't spend much time discussing Correa's elite defense because that wasn't what I was writing about. I could have also written about his reported leadership skills or how he's hitting .400 in September, but that wasn't my goal. It's worth appreciating just how historically absurd his GIDP numbers are this year. At no point did I disparage him in this.

Simmons is actually a great comp for Correa at this point in his career. They both make up (made up, in Simmons's case) for suboptimal lateral quickness as a shortstop with elite arms by playing further back in the infield to give them more time to make the play. Simmons spent 5 years as the best defensive shortstop in baseball and received Ozzie Smith comparisons for his ability to prevent runs. Comparing Correa to Simmons defensively is not a knock on Correa.

Their age 28 seasons aren't super comparable though. Simmons had 5.7 WAR that season. Correa won't be more than a 2 WAR player this year. Of course, Correa already has more career WAR than Simmons accumulated in his whole career. I hope CC recovers and is back to 3-5 WAR next season. Simmons never hit the ball as hard as Correa does, and only had two full seasons where he was barely an above-average hitter, so Correa's ceiling is much higher. 

[Greglw3]

On 9/10/2023 at 7:00 PM, Woof Bronzer said:

It's not medically possible for an ankle injury to affect hitting but not defense.  Correa was just as bad at the plate before the supposed injury as he's been since.  He's just been flat out bad this year.  If his injury is indeed affecting his performance to a significant degree he shouldn't be playing.  It's not heroic to hurt the team by playing poorly while injured. (See also "Buxton, Byron 2023 season" for further reference.) And it shouldn't be hard to say he's having a bad year.  Go ahead, say it.  Give it a try.  "Carlos Correa has had a terrible year."  Your life will not change one way or the other, and your fan card won't be revoked, I promise.  

In 2021 Simmons was 8th on the Twins hitters in WAR with 1.5,  In 2023 Correa is 10th on the Twins with 1.4 WAR.  The comparison is actually more spot on than I even realized.  

I decidedly do not believe in the WAR statistic. I agree with Bill James that it should be WAG for Wild Ass Guess.

I don’t think Correa has had a bad year.

For most of the year, he was sensational defensively. Just about as dominant as Buxton when he was hitting .160 some yrs ago.

The batting average and plate discipline is disappointing but he still hit 18 HR as a SS and leads the team in RBIs. The problem may be that you believe in WAR more than RBIs and I believe in RBIs more than WAR. Justin Morneau has basically defended RBIs as important on air.

I’d agree not Correa’s best season but still amazing when playing with a nasty case of plantar fasciitis. 

I don’t think you or I or probably even Rocco Baldelli understand why the injury affected his hitting and fielding radically differently. I know it didn’t affect that many hits-and-runs saving cannon of an arm.

[Woof Bronzer]

17 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I decidedly do not believe in the WAR statistic. I agree with Bill James that it should be WAG for Wild Ass Guess.

I don’t think Correa has had a bad year.

I'm actually with you on WAR - I think it's one of many tools for FOs to identify talent, but should not be used to measure actual performance (that's not what it does).  However I do think it has become one of those stats that people use to defend a opinion when it suits them, and that people dismiss when it doesn't fit their narrative.

We disagree on Correa.  Simmons played great D in 2021 too.  We didn't sign Correa to the richest deal in team history to simply play good D.  Let's hope he's better next year!