Ranking Twins Players Age 25 and Under: Part 1 (6-10)

[Cody Christie]

Prospect lists can be flawed in the fact that there are players that have lost prospect eligibility but are still young. Let's explore the Twins' top players in their age-25 season or younger.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins have developed a solid young core carrying the team's offense throughout the 2023 season. Each player below is in their age-25 season or younger while playing in the upper level of the minors. Some players no longer qualify for the organization's top prospect list; others have yet to make their big-league debut. Players not eligible for the list include Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Willi Castro, who are all in their age-26 season. 

10. Austin Martin, IF/OF
Age: 24
Martin was considered the top prospect the Twins received as part of the Jose Berrios trade, but he's struggled since the trade. During the 2022 season, he posted a .683 OPS at Double-A. During spring training, Martin sustained a sprained ligament in his right elbow. Thankfully, he has been able to avoid surgery. In 26 Triple-A games, he has hit .261/.374/.364 (.737) with six doubles and one home run. It will be interesting to see if his performance improves with an entire off-season to recover from his elbow injury.   

9. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B
Age: 25
Miranda would have easily been in the top-5 of this list at the season's start, but his performance has struggled in 2023. He suffered a shoulder injury during spring training and tried to play through the injury. In 40 big-league games, he posted a 56 OPS+ with seven extra-base hits and 24 strikeouts. Miranda is currently on the IL because of his shoulder issue. When healthy, Miranda is an elite hitter, and the Twins hope this version of Miranda returns for the 2024 campaign. 

8. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Age: 22
It's easy to forget that Woods Richardson is this young, especially after making his big-league debut during the 2022 campaign. He's pitched at Triple-A for nearly the entire 2023 season, where he is over five years younger than the average age of the competition. In 18 appearances, he has a 5.56 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP and 7.4 K/9. Luckily, he still has plenty of time to improve his performance and will be in the conversation for the Twins' 2024 starting rotation. 

7. Louie Varland, RHP
Age: 25
Varland might seem like the organization's forgotten starting pitching prospect, but he's won back-to-back Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He split time between the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2023 with results that don't match his previous performance. In 12 Triple-A starts, he has a 4.53 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. The Twins might still need Varland during the 2023 season, but his performance has yet to warrant the team promoting him. He is still part of the team's long-term plans and projects to be in the Twins' rotation for 2024 and beyond.

6. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
Age: 25
Kirilloff would rank higher on this list for many teams, but he has struggled to stay healthy for multiple seasons. His wrist impacted his performance over the last two seasons, so the Twins ramped him up slowly to start the 2023 campaign. He looked like one of the team's best hitters for a stretch, including winning the AL Player of the Week. However, a shoulder injury has him back in the IL. An argument can be made for Kirilloff to be in the top-5, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy and productive at the big-league level. 

How would you rank these players? Which player will have the most significant long-term impact on the club? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[TNTwinsFan]

I don't consider SWR one of the Twins' Top 15 or 20 Prospects, so he probably wouldn't be in this list for me.

[DJL44]

Pretty bold to put Julien, Wallner and Duran ahead of Kirilloff. Assuming Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis are also in that list it doesn't leave room for Jenkins.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Pretty bold to put Julien, Wallner and Duran ahead of Kirilloff. Assuming Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis are also in that list it doesn't leave room for Jenkins.

I think the spirit of this list is high minors/current Twins roster type guys. The immediate future over just a prospect ranking type situation.

[John Belinski]

It would seem that Lew

[John Belinski]

Just now, John Belinski said:

It would seem that Lewis and Lee should be at the top of the list. I would agree that Louie and Alex belong on the list. It appears the Twins have some good players coming up and should  be able to continue to have winning teams. They may have to trade one of their infielders since it appears they have too many good infielders along with too many lefthanded outfielders. They need to make a win trade to help them be a winning team for years to come.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Interesting angle.  I'll be watching for the rest.  I couldn't help but think of the bad luck we've had with injuries while looking at this list though.  Three of the five guys listed have missed significant time:

#10 - Martin.  Out for most of the year.

#9 - Miranda.  Hurt/Out for most of the year.

#6 - Kirilloff.  Hurt/Out for a good chunk of this year (and previous).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Personally I would have Martin above Varland and SWR.   I think it is fair to remove Martin's early season stats due to recovering from injury.  Had he not I think he would have put up very good stats this year.  Between an amazing fall ball, an excellent spring training before the injury and now a strong August I think Martin is beginning to show the high average, high OBP player that we had expected when the trade was made.  I have stated for quite a while I though the low numbers were an aberration due to the Twins system trying to make him into a hitter he was not.  I still believe his baseline is a .280-.300 BA and .375 -.400 OBP type player with plenty of steals.  That ceiling is much higher than Varland or SWR.  Miranda and Martin are a toss up,  both ceilings are higher than Varland and SWR - and Varland and Miranda have both struggled at the MLB level.   

[roger]

Interesting, Cody.

I would put AK higher on this list.  It appears his wrist problem is behind him and the shoulder is the type of injury that is going to happen to most players during their careers.  Unfortunately, it happened following several years when he was dealing with the wrist.  Certainly Top 5 in my book.  He has the ability to be one of the Twins top hitters.

Got a good smile when you mentioned that SWR was much younger than the average age in AAA.  I cannot recall anything you have written in which the age wasn't pointed out about some/most of the players you are writing about.  Yes, age matters.  Especially for the younger kids.  And yes, SWR is younger than most of us would guess.  But the average age in AAA is much older because a lot of AAAA type players push the average age up, a lot for some teams.  So being 5 years younger isn't as meaningful as say, in Hi-A.

Will agree with the above comments about Martin.  The Twins need to understand who he is and stop trying to make him something he isn't.  The kid is a lot more like a fast version of Arraez than another power hitting Twin.  Won't disagree with where you have him, just think there is a good chance he still ends up being special.

[jmlease1]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

Will agree with the above comments about Martin.  The Twins need to understand who he is and stop trying to make him something he isn't.  The kid is a lot more like a fast version of Arraez than another power hitting Twin.  Won't disagree with where you have him, just think there is a good chance he still ends up being special.

I don't think the Twins have been trying to turn Martin into something he's not; there was a stretch after the first acquired him that they were looking to adjust his swing to see about adding more power, but that hasn't been the case for some time now. They've been letting him play, he's just had his time interrupted by some injuries and COVID. I'm a big believer in his talent, he just needs health.

[ToddlerHarmon]

It's not a bad situation that Jeffers, Castro, and Larnach are only aged out of this list by a year

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Interesting angle.  I'll be watching for the rest.  I couldn't help but think of the bad luck we've had with injuries while looking at this list though.  Three of the five guys listed have missed significant time:

#10 - Martin.  Out for most of the year.

#9 - Miranda.  Hurt/Out for most of the year.

#6 - Kirilloff.  Hurt/Out for a good chunk of this year (and previous).

Nick Paparesta has to be at least #5 on this list....

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I don't think the Twins have been trying to turn Martin into something he's not; there was a stretch after the first acquired him that they were looking to adjust his swing to see about adding more power, but that hasn't been the case for some time now. They've been letting him play, he's just had his time interrupted by some injuries and COVID. I'm a big believer in his talent, he just needs health.

He came over in 2021,  they messed with his swing in 2021 and 2022, towards the end of 2022 he seemed to start reverting back to more of the contact hitter.   

[Trov]

Not sure if TD editors or the authors do the links to baseball reference pages, but the Austin Martin link is not to the Twins Austin Martin. The link on this page takes you to an Austin Martin a relief pitcher pitching for Goshin College in Indiana.  That particular Austin Martin did not have a good season pitching either.  

[Mike Sixel]

I think people forget about this when looking at the farm system.....Julien, Wallner, Lewis, AK and Jeffers (and Duran) are no long prospects......Obviously a big IF, but IF those players can actually stay healthy, this team has a decently good future.

[Trov]

SWR has been pitching much better over last month or so.  His walks are still up but he is limiting the damage overall. I am hopeful whatever led to his early struggles this year is going away and he can be someone we can count on next year when needed. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the spirit of this list is high minors/current Twins roster type guys. The immediate future over just a prospect ranking type situation.

I'd still have Jenkins ahead of Miranda.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'd still have Jenkins ahead of Miranda.

That's an awfully bold take, but to each their own.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd trade Miranda this off season. I see no realistic spot for him going forward......

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd trade Miranda this off season. I see no realistic spot for him going forward......

Righty platoon bat since no lefties can be trusted to hit against a lefty.

[Kenny Powers]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Nick Paparesta has to be at least #5 on this list....

Ha!  He can't be though...he's over 25.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Righty platoon bat since no lefties can be trusted to hit against a lefty.

hahahaha. thanks for that. That's Martin going forward, though Martin might just be the starting LF or CF .....so, maybe?

But, it was a good laugh.

[gman]

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd trade Miranda this off season. I see no realistic spot for him going forward......

I'd agree with the trade part except it would definitely be trading low. But if he doesn't have a position to play its also kind of hard to raise that value. Its good thing, but it's also too bad to be in a position of trading seemingly talented young players. i assume swap for pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, gman said:

I'd agree with the trade part except it would definitely be trading low. But if he doesn't have a position to play its also kind of hard to raise that value. Its good thing, but it's also too bad to be in a position of trading seemingly talented young players. i assume swap for pitching.

Right....the other option is he's in AAA, waiting for Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kirilolff and maybe Severino to get hurt....and maybe Polanco, but I think Polanco isn't back next year. Oh, and also Austin Martin (though I think he's an OF at this point).

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Not sure if TD editors or the authors do the links to baseball reference pages, but the Austin Martin link is not to the Twins Austin Martin. The link on this page takes you to an Austin Martin a relief pitcher pitching for Goshin College in Indiana.  That particular Austin Martin did not have a good season pitching either.  

As a 1988 grad, I can unfortunately report that a fair number of Maple Leafs didn't have good seasons pitching. 😀

New coach on board, however, and I've heard only good things about him.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd trade Miranda this off season. I see no realistic spot for him going forward......

Miranda is nice Kiriloff insurance.   His value is already depressed.  Kiriloff has struggled to remain healthy for a full year.  He would just be filling the Gallo position.  If 1 or both get injured, can have Williams Prato or another prospect come up.  

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Miranda is nice Kiriloff insurance.   His value is already depressed.  Kiriloff has struggled to remain healthy for a full year.  He would just be filling the Gallo position.  If 1 or both get injured, can have Williams Prato or another prospect come up.  

If he's raking in AAA next year, he's more valuable as a trade piece, IMO....but you might be right this off season. Not sure what his value is at this point......but while I like depth, I like better players even more, and this team needs better RP and more pitching prospects.....but I don't see them dealing him unless he's part of a bigger package.

[twinzcynic]

The bummer about SWR and Varland is that it's a very common theme for highly regarded SP prospects to either flame out or convert to low leverage relievers. I know not every high SP prospect will hit, but an astoundingly small percentage of ours under Falvine successfully transition from promising minor leaguer to regular MLB contributor.

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

The bummer about SWR and Varland is that it's a very common theme for highly regarded SP prospects to either flame out or convert to low leverage relievers. I know not every high SP prospect will hit, but an astoundingly small percentage of ours under Falvine successfully transition from promising minor leaguer to regular MLB contributor.

Given there have been almost none highly ranked, I'm not sure I get your point at the end. SWR and Balazovich are the only ones I can recall any national pundits liking.....it's also been 7 years. It takes 3-4 years for a pitcher to make the majors, so, what, 3-4 drafts so far? How many legit starting pitchers would you expect in 3-4 years of drafts? 1? 2 at most?

[old nurse]

If Kirilloff is 5 because of health, Lewis then must have been number 11.He missed all of 2021, most of 22 and 23.